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Gold prices edged lower in Asian trading on Monday, extending last week’s decline as investors continued to dial back expectations of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month.

A firmer U.S. dollar added further pressure on the metal, while growing risk aversion—driven by uncertainty around the timing of future rate reductions and broader economic concerns—did little to support bullion.

Spot gold dipped 0.6% to $4,053.84 per ounce by 00:33 ET (05:33 GMT), while December gold futures retreated 0.9% to $4,055.91/oz.

Traders unwind December rate-cut bets

Gold’s latest pullback has been driven primarily by traders reducing expectations that the Fed will cut rates in December.

According to CME FedWatch, markets were pricing in a 39.8% chance of a 25 bps cut at the December 10–11 meeting—down sharply from 61.9% just a week earlier.
The probability of rates staying unchanged rose to 60.2%, up from 38.1%.

Uncertainty around the U.S. economic outlook has intensified, particularly after the country exited its longest government shutdown on record. The shutdown is expected to delay or distort several key October indicators, notably inflation and employment, leaving the Fed with limited visibility heading into its final meeting of the year.

Signs of stubborn inflation have also reinforced expectations that policymakers will keep borrowing costs higher for longer. Meanwhile, Chair Jerome Powell has remained largely non-committal on the prospect of a December cut.

Higher-for-longer rates tend to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold and other precious metals.

Among the broader complex, spot platinum inched up 0.1% to $1,548.0/oz but remained deep in the red after Friday’s selloff, while spot silver was flat at $50.5795/oz, following a sharp retreat from near-record highs last week.

Dollar steadies ahead of Fed minutes and key U.S. data

The dollar firmed slightly on Monday after last week’s losses, with the dollar index adding 0.1%.

Markets now turn their attention to a heavy slate of U.S. data, including November PMI readings and September nonfarm payrolls, due Thursday.

The minutes from the Fed’s October meeting—set for release Wednesday—are expected to provide more clarity on policymakers’ thinking as the December decision approaches.

Inflation and labor-market data remain the Fed’s two most influential inputs for policy direction.
However, U.S. officials have warned that both October releases may never be published due to the shutdown’s disruption.

Oil prices slipped on Monday, surrendering part of last week’s sharp rally after crude shipments resumed at Russia’s Novorossiysk port, reducing immediate worries about supply disruption.

As of 04:35 ET (09:35 GMT), January Brent futures were down 0.7% at $63.97 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude dipped 0.7% to $59.52 a barrel.

Exports resume at key Russian hub

Both Brent and WTI jumped more than 2% on Friday following Ukraine’s high-profile strikes on Novorossiysk and a nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium facility—an attack that caused damage and temporarily halted shipments equal to around 2% of global supply.

By Sunday, however, media outlets reported that tanker-tracking data indicated crude loadings had restarted at the port.

Although the resumption has eased the near-term supply squeeze, traders remain on edge. Ukraine’s military said it struck Russia’s Ryazan refinery on Saturday and the Novokuibyshevsk facility in the Samara region on Sunday, adding to concerns that further disruptions could unfold.

Market weighs evolving supply risks

Attention is also locked on tightening U.S. sanctions. New restrictions from Washington will bar companies from engaging with Russian oil majors Lukoil and Rosneft after Nov. 21, compelling buyers to unwind existing deals and raising uncertainty over how much crude may ultimately be left without a market.

“While the oil market is expected to remain in a large surplus through 2026, it is also facing growing supply risks. The scale and intensity of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are picking up,” ING analysts said in a note.

“Risks are also emerging elsewhere, with Iran seizing an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman after it passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is a key choke point for the global oil market, with around 20m b/d passing through it,” they added.

Speculators lift Brent net longs

Fresh positioning data showed speculative net long holdings in ICE Brent rose by 12,636 lots in the latest reporting week, reaching 164,867 lots as of last Tuesday.

“This was predominantly driven by short covering. It suggests that some participants are reluctant to be short at the moment amid supply risks related to uncertainty over sanctions,” ING added.

Vast Resources plc (LSE:VAST) has repaid $1 million to lenders A&T Investments SARL and Mercuria Energy Trading SA, securing an extension of its loan agreements through the end of 2025. The company plans to use proceeds from forthcoming diamond sales and potential funding arrangements to fully settle the remaining debt, a step that could strengthen its financial footing and improve operational flexibility.

Vast has also published the tender details for an initial 126,677.50-carat parcel of rough stones, spanning both gem-quality and industrial categories. Management intends to sell the higher-grade stones in phases to maximise revenue and enhance shareholder value. This approach is expected to support stronger cash generation and bolster the company’s competitive positioning.

Vast Resources’ outlook remains constrained by ongoing financial difficulties, including sustained operating losses and negative equity. However, recent positive corporate developments and select supportive technical indicators offer some scope for strategic improvement. Valuation challenges persist due to continued negative profitability.

More about Vast Resources

Vast Resources plc is a UK-based mining company listed on AIM, with operations in Romania, Tajikistan, and Zimbabwe. Its portfolio includes the Baita Plai and Manaila polymetallic mines in Romania, as well as gold and silver interests in Tajikistan. The company is also pursuing additional mining opportunities in Zimbabwe.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (LSE:GKP) has confirmed the successful completion of its first lifting of Kurdistan crude for pipeline export at the Ceyhan terminal in Türkiye, carried out alongside other International Oil Companies. The company expects to receive payment for its share within 30 days, with a second lifting scheduled for late November 2025. This milestone represents an important operational advance and could strengthen Gulf Keystone’s market position while delivering financial benefits for shareholders.

Gulf Keystone’s outlook highlights strong balance-sheet stability and solid cash-flow management, tempered by weaker profitability trends and technical indicators signalling bearish momentum. While the company’s high dividend yield may appeal to income investors, it is accompanied by elevated risk given negative earnings. Operational volatility and regional geopolitical uncertainty also weigh on the near-term view.

More about Gulf Keystone Petroleum

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. is an independent oil and gas operator active in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, where it focuses primarily on exploration and production activities.

HICL Infrastructure PLC (LSE:HICL) and The Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited (LSE:TRIG) have announced a merger that will form the UK’s largest listed infrastructure investment vehicle, with combined net assets of more than £5.3 billion. The transaction, slated for completion in Q1 2026, will see TRIG wound up and its assets transferred to HICL in exchange for new HICL shares and cash. By uniting their portfolios and sector expertise, the enlarged group aims to capitalise on long-term infrastructure megatrends across both core and renewable assets. The combined entity is targeting a 9.0 pence per-share dividend and a NAV total return exceeding 10% per year, supported by a £100 million liquidity package from Sun Life.

HICL’s outlook remains underpinned by its strong financial footing, including zero balance-sheet debt and robust cash-flow discipline. Strategic share buybacks add further support for shareholder value. Even so, technical indicators hint at potential overbought conditions, and the stock’s moderately elevated P/E ratio raises valuation considerations. A strong dividend yield helps balance these risks for income-focused investors.

More about HICL Infrastructure

HICL Infrastructure PLC has been listed on the London Stock Exchange since 2006 and originally specialised in social infrastructure assets under PFI and PPP models. The company has since broadened its mandate to include regulated utilities, transport concessions, and digital infrastructure across the UK, Europe, North America, and New Zealand. As of March 2025, its portfolio comprised more than 100 essential infrastructure assets valued at around £3 billion. TRIG, launched in 2013, is a renewables-focused investment company with a 2.3GW portfolio spanning solar, onshore and offshore wind, and battery storage, and a net asset value of roughly £2.6 billion.

KEFI Gold and Copper PLC (LSE:KEFI) has confirmed that full development of its Tulu Kapi Gold Project in Ethiopia is scheduled to begin by the end of 2025. The project’s budget has been finalised at roughly US$340 million, with US$240 million already secured through debt facilities and equity commitments surpassing the remaining US$100 million requirement. KEFI is now working to refine its equity structure, complete the necessary financing documentation, and continue engagement with both international partners and local stakeholders. Early development work—including community housing and infrastructure installations—is set to commence as part of the project’s ramp-up, which is expected to contribute meaningfully to Ethiopia’s growing minerals sector.

More about KEFI Gold and Copper

KEFI Gold and Copper PLC is focused on exploring and developing gold and copper deposits across the Arabian-Nubian Shield. The company manages a portfolio of projects in Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia, with a strategy centered on advancing high-grade, high-recovery assets toward production.

Jubilee Metals Group (LSE:JLP) has obtained unconditional clearance from the South African Competition Tribunal for the sale of its South African chrome and PGM operations to One Chrome (Pty) Ltd. This milestone moves the transaction significantly closer to completion, with only South African Reserve Bank approval and final audit-related steps still outstanding. The deal is expected to close by the end of 2025, enabling Jubilee to sharpen its strategic focus on its Zambian copper portfolio and improve operational efficiency across the business.

Jubilee’s outlook balances strong long-term growth prospects in Zambia against financial pressures, including shrinking profit margins and rising leverage. Recent corporate developments—such as this asset-sale approval—provide strategic tailwinds, but technical signals point to a more cautious stance in the near term.

More about Jubilee Metals Group

Jubilee Metals Group is a diversified metals producer with a primary focus on copper operations in Zambia. The company also maintains interests in South Africa, including the Tjate platinum project, and has historically managed assets across copper, chrome, and platinum group metals.

OptiBiotix Health (LSE:OPTI) has secured its first significant order from a prominent European weight-management company for its SlimBiome® and WellBiome® formulations—a key milestone in the firm’s strategy to expand its private-label offering. The deal reflects rising market demand for natural, non-GLP1 alternatives in the weight-management sector, which is expected to see strong growth over the coming years. OptiBiotix’s partnerships with global names such as Hydroxycut and LightLife further enhance its industry profile and could help drive stronger sales momentum and long-term value creation.

More about OptiBiotix Health

OptiBiotix Health plc is a life sciences company developing microbiome-focused solutions aimed at improving health and preventing disease. Its portfolio includes SlimBiome®, WellBiome®, SweetBiotix®, and a range of microbiome modulators. The company also maintains strategic interests in related sectors through its holdings in SkinBioTherapeutics PLC and ProBiotix Health plc, expanding its reach across skincare, probiotics, and metabolic health technologies.

Polar Capital Holdings (LSE:POLR) reported a 25% surge in Assets under Management (AuM) to £26.7 billion for the six months ending 30 September 2025, reaching a new all-time high. Even amid sector-wide volatility and continued net outflows, the firm benefited from strong market performance—particularly within its technology-focused strategies. Management also declared an interim dividend, underscoring confidence in the group’s financial strength. The company received multiple industry recognitions during the period, highlighting its boutique positioning and specialist sector expertise.

Polar Capital’s outlook remains favourable, supported by strong technical momentum and a resilient financial profile. The shares trade on an attractive valuation, featuring a reasonable P/E ratio and a notably high dividend yield, which enhances its appeal to income-oriented investors. The absence of recent earnings call or corporate event disclosures does little to offset the broadly positive view.

More about Polar Capital Holdings

Polar Capital Holdings is an asset management group offering a wide mix of actively managed investment funds across sectors including technology, healthcare, and global insurance. The company is known for its specialised approach, with a strong emphasis on technology-driven strategies that have attracted significant investor interest.

Tower Resources plc (LSE:TRP) has completed a £280,000 subscription through the issuance of 1,000,000,000 ordinary shares at a modest discount to the prevailing market price. The raise, which follows an earlier subscription, is aimed at strengthening working capital in response to heightened investor interest. The proceeds will support the company’s ongoing activities across its African portfolio, with a particular focus on progressing the Thali project in Cameroon. The transaction also includes broker warrants, signalling investor confidence and reinforcing Tower’s strategic positioning within the African energy sector.

More about Tower Resources

Tower Resources plc is an AIM-listed energy company developing a diversified portfolio of oil and gas opportunities across Africa. Its primary near-term objective is to advance the Thali project in Cameroon, targeting quick-to-market production to generate cash flow. The company is also exploring prospects in Namibia and South Africa, where major recent discoveries have enhanced regional industry potential. Tower focuses on operating in jurisdictions with supportive fiscal regimes and leverages the deep sector experience of its board and strategic partners.