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  • Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures Edge Lower Amid Fed Independence Concerns and Tariff Threats

    Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures Edge Lower Amid Fed Independence Concerns and Tariff Threats

    U.S. stock index futures pointed to a slightly weaker open on Tuesday, signaling further downside after Monday’s losses.

    Investors are weighing fresh political developments, particularly uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve. Sentiment was rattled after former President Donald Trump announced he would remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook from her role.

    In a message posted on Truth Social, Trump alleged Cook made “false statements on one or more mortgage agreements.”

    Cook, however, disputed Trump’s authority to dismiss her, saying she would continue to serve in her role.
    “I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022,” Cook said.

    Adding to market jitters, Trump escalated his trade rhetoric, warning he could impose “substantial additional tariffs” on countries that maintain digital taxes or regulations targeting U.S. technology firms.
    “America, and American Technology Companies, are neither the ‘piggy bank’ nor the ‘doormat’ of the World any longer,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Show respect to America and our amazing Tech Companies or, consider the consequences!”

    On Monday, Trump also threatened 200% tariffs on China if Beijing restricts exports of rare-earth magnets to the United States.

    Stocks struggled in the previous session, with major indexes turning lower into the close after an early stretch of lackluster trading. The Dow dropped 349.27 points, or 0.8%, to 45,282.47, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.4% to 6,439.32 and the Nasdaq eased 0.2% to 21,449.29.

    Part of the weakness reflected profit-taking, as traders locked in gains following Friday’s rally, which was fueled by remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinting at a potential rate cut in September.

    Still, selling pressure was relatively muted, as investors held back ahead of key events later this week. Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) earnings on Wednesday evening will be closely watched, along with upcoming U.S. economic releases. The Commerce Department’s inflation data on Friday will be especially significant, as it includes the Fed’s preferred price gauge. Reports on durable goods orders, consumer confidence, and GDP growth are also expected to influence sentiment.

    Tuesday morning, the Commerce Department reported that new home sales dipped 0.6% in July to an annual rate of 652,000, down from a revised 656,000 in June. Economists had forecast a smaller decline, with expectations for 630,000.

    Sector performance was mixed on Monday. Biotech stocks retreated sharply, with the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index tumbling 2.2% after reaching a six-month high last week. Transportation shares also slid, with the Dow Jones Transportation Average losing 1.8%. Meanwhile, pharmaceutical, healthcare, and utilities stocks were under pressure, while oil producers found support from a strong rebound in crude prices.

    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • London Stock Exchange cleared to launch private trading platform

    London Stock Exchange cleared to launch private trading platform

    The London Stock Exchange has received regulatory approval from the U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to operate a new private market platform, the Private Intermittent Securities and Capital Exchange System (PISCES), the regulator said Tuesday.

    The PISCES system will allow investors to buy and sell shares of private companies on a periodic basis, offering a formalized trading venue for transactions that previously took place through informal channels, according to the FCA.

    This initiative expands the London Stock Exchange’s reach into private company trading, providing a more structured and transparent environment for investors and companies alike.

    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • Dollar Climbs Back After Early Drop; Euro Pressured by French Political Uncertainty

    Dollar Climbs Back After Early Drop; Euro Pressured by French Political Uncertainty

    The U.S. dollar stabilized Tuesday after initial declines, following President Donald Trump’s announcement that he had dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, his latest move questioning the independence of the U.S. central bank.

    By 04:35 ET (08:35 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was nearly unchanged at 98.320, rebounding after earlier losses of up to 0.4% triggered by Trump’s statement. This came after the U.S. currency posted its strongest daily gain of the month on Monday.

    Fed independence under scrutiny

    In his letter to Cook, Trump cited alleged irregularities in mortgage loans as justification for her removal. Cook rejected the claims, stating that Trump has “no authority” to fire her and that she will not step down.

    No U.S. president has ever tried to remove a Fed governor, making the next steps uncertain. Analysts anticipate that Cook may challenge her dismissal, likely bringing the matter to the Supreme Court.

    “After the resignation of Adriana Kugler and the appointment of Stephen Miran, the influential governing board is starting to lean towards Trump’s way. Investors will naturally start to increasingly question the independence of the Fed, which would result in a steeper yield curve and a weaker dollar,” ING analysts noted.

    Outside of politics, the U.S. economic calendar remains busy this week, with consumer confidence data released today, a revised second-quarter GDP reading on Thursday, and core PCE inflation on Friday.

    “We’ll also hear an important speech on monetary policy from the Fed’s Christopher Waller on Thursday,” ING added. “He voted for a rate cut in July and is seen as one of the front-runners to replace Powell as Fed Chair next May.”

    Euro pressured by French political uncertainty

    In Europe, EUR/USD edged down 0.1% to 1.1607 as political tensions in France weighed on the single currency. This follows news that the three main opposition parties have said they will not support a confidence vote called by Prime Minister François Bayrou for Sept. 8 over budget plans.

    Should the government fall, President Emmanuel Macron could appoint a new prime minister, ask Bayrou to lead a caretaker administration, or call a snap election. Macron’s previous prime minister, Michel Barnier, lost a no-confidence vote over the budget in late 2024 after just three months in office, following another early election in July of that year.

    “The broader question for the euro is whether recent French news destabilises appetite for the euro more broadly, or whether this is an isolated French issue,” ING added.

    GBP/USD held steady at 1.3466, supported by a hawkish Bank of England stance.

    “Following this month’s hawkish turn by the BoE, the market struggles to price one 25bp cut this year (just 12bp currently priced) and barely two cuts by next summer,” ING noted.

    Quiet trading in Asia

    In Asia, USD/JPY eased slightly to 147.76, with the safe-haven yen gaining modestly against the dollar.

    USD/CNY rose 0.2% to 7.1616, while AUD/USD slipped to 0.6478 after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s August 11-12 meeting minutes suggested that additional policy easing might be required in the coming year.

    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • DAX, CAC, FTSE100, European Markets Dip Amid U.S. Tariff Concerns and French Political Uncertainty

    DAX, CAC, FTSE100, European Markets Dip Amid U.S. Tariff Concerns and French Political Uncertainty

    European stocks retreated Tuesday, tracking Wall Street lower as investors weighed the potential for additional U.S. tariffs and renewed political uncertainty in France.

    At 07:35 GMT, Germany’s DAX fell 0.5%, France’s CAC 40 lost 1.8%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 dropped 0.6%.

    Fed Independence Faces Scrutiny

    European equities mirrored the negative sentiment from the U.S., following Wall Street losses as concerns mounted over Federal Reserve independence after President Donald Trump announced the dismissal of Governor Lisa Cook.

    Cook rejected the president’s authority to remove her, stating she will “continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy.”

    No U.S. president has previously attempted to remove a Fed governor, leaving the next steps uncertain. Analysts expect Cook may challenge the dismissal, potentially taking the case to the Supreme Court.

    Digital Tax Disputes Fuel Tariff Fears

    Across Europe, investors remained cautious after Trump warned that countries imposing digital taxes could face “subsequent additional tariffs” on their exports if the taxes are not rescinded.

    Several European nations have levied such taxes on revenues from digital giants, including Alphabet’s Google, Meta’s Facebook, Apple, and Amazon. The move is widely seen as a direct challenge to the European Union’s Digital Services Act, a long-standing point of contention for U.S. administrations.

    French Political Tensions Rise

    In France, political instability resurfaced after the three main opposition parties announced they would not support a confidence vote called by Prime Minister Francois Bayrou on September 8 concerning his budget plans.

    Should the government fall, President Emmanuel Macron could either appoint a new prime minister, ask Bayrou to remain as head of a caretaker government, or call an early election. Macron previously lost Prime Minister Michel Barnier to a no-confidence vote over budget issues in late 2024, just three months into office following a snap election in July of that year.

    Corporate Updates: BAT CFO Departs and Earnings Reports

    British American Tobacco (LSE:BATS) confirmed that CFO Soraya Benchikh is stepping down immediately after 15 months in the role.

    Bakkafrost (TG:6BF) reported weaker second-quarter earnings, pressured by lower salmon prices and incident-related costs in Scotland. Meanwhile, TX Group announced a three-year share buyback program following a sharp decline in first-half results, with revenues, operating income, and net profit all down.

    Oil Retreats as Gold Benefits from Safe-Haven Demand

    Oil prices slipped, reversing some of the previous session’s gains, as traders monitored the Russia-Ukraine conflict for potential impacts on regional fuel supplies.

    At 03:35 ET, Brent crude fell 0.6% to $67.78 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 0.8% to $64.29 a barrel. Both benchmarks had surged nearly 2% on Monday, reaching two-week highs after Ukraine struck Russian energy infrastructure amid expectations of further U.S. sanctions on Russian oil.

    Gold prices climbed, supported by safe-haven demand amid concerns over Fed independence following Trump’s announcement on Cook. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,373.99 an ounce, having earlier hit two-week highs, while October gold futures gained 0.1% to $3,419.22/oz.

    The dismissal of Cook marks Trump’s latest move to exert influence over the Fed’s rate-setting activities.

    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures, Trump/Cook, Nissan, tariffs, and gold: Market movers

    Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures, Trump/Cook, Nissan, tariffs, and gold: Market movers

    U.S. stock futures dipped on Tuesday as investors reacted cautiously to President Donald Trump’s decision to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, while gold surged to a two-week high amid safe-haven demand. Trump also hinted at potential new tariffs, possibly targeting the European Union and China, while Nissan shares tumbled following Mercedes Benz’s announcement that it would begin selling its stake in the Japanese automaker.

    Trump fires Fed Governor Cook

    Late Monday, President Trump announced he was terminating Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage improprieties, marking his latest challenge to the Fed’s independence.

    In a letter to Cook, the first African-American woman to serve on the Federal Reserve’s board, Trump stated he had “sufficient cause to remove you from your position” after U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency director William Pulte raised questions about her mortgages last week.

    Cook, appointed by former President Joe Biden in 2022, responded: “I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy.”

    No U.S. president has previously attempted to remove a Fed governor, leaving the path forward uncertain. Analysts suggest that Cook may challenge the firing in the Supreme Court.

    This action follows multiple threats by Trump to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell and represents a clear escalation in his efforts to pressure the central bank, which he criticizes for not cutting interest rates quickly enough.

    U.S. futures decline

    U.S. stock futures fell Tuesday, extending Monday’s losses as concerns about the Fed’s independence weighed on sentiment. At 02:35 ET, S&P 500 futures were down 8 points (0.1%), Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 45 points (0.2%), and Dow futures lost 70 points (0.2%).

    Major indices closed lower Monday after Friday’s rally: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.4%, and the NASDAQ Composite edged down 0.2%.

    Investors are also awaiting a slate of economic reports ahead of the September Federal Reserve meeting, including durable goods orders, consumer confidence, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin is scheduled to speak as well.

    Potential new tariffs

    Trump warned that countries imposing digital taxes could face “subsequent additional tariffs” if such laws are not removed.

    “With this TRUTH, I put all Countries with Digital Taxes, Legislation, Rules, or Regulations, on notice that unless these discriminatory actions are removed, I, as President of the United States, will impose substantial additional Tariffs on that Country’s Exports to the U.S.A., and institute Export restrictions on our Highly Protected Technology and Chips,” Trump said in a social media post.

    Earlier this year, Trump instructed his trade team to resume investigations into tariffs on countries that levy digital service taxes affecting U.S. tech firms. He has also threatened China with 200% tariffs if Beijing does not export rare-earth magnets to the U.S., amid ongoing trade tensions.

    Mercedes begins selling Nissan stake

    Nissan (USOTC:NNCHY) shares fell sharply Tuesday after Mercedes Benz (TG:MBG), the automaker’s second-largest shareholder, said it would start divesting its 3.8% stake, valued at roughly $346 million.

    Mercedes Benz confirmed the stake was transferred to its pension unit and deemed “not of strategic importance.” The sale adds pressure to Nissan shares, already weighed down by U.S. tariffs, falling sales, and global EV competition, particularly from Chinese rivals. A previously planned merger with Honda (NYSE:HMC), which would have created the world’s second-largest automaker, largely unraveled in early 2025.

    Gold climbs to two-week high

    Gold prices climbed Tuesday as safe-haven buying accelerated amid concerns over the Fed’s independence after Trump announced Cook’s dismissal.

    At 02:35 ET, spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,375.71 an ounce, while October gold futures gained 0.2% to $3,423.95/oz.

    The firing represents Trump’s latest attempt to exert influence over Fed policy. Replacing Cook with his own nominee could increase his sway on the Fed’s seven-member board, which already includes his appointees, Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman.

    Waller and Bowman both voted for a rate cut during the Fed’s July meeting, aligning with Trump’s preferences.

    Earlier, Trump had raised the possibility of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, raising concerns about the central bank’s independence, which could ultimately impact U.S. economic credibility.

    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • Gold Climbs to Two-Week High Amid Trump-Fed Tensions and Cook Dismissal

    Gold Climbs to Two-Week High Amid Trump-Fed Tensions and Cook Dismissal

    Gold prices rose in Asian trading on Tuesday, supported by safe-haven demand after concerns intensified over Federal Reserve independence following President Donald Trump’s announcement that he was firing Governor Lisa Cook.

    A weaker dollar also boosted gold and other metal prices, which had been volatile in recent sessions amid uncertainty over the U.S. interest rate trajectory.

    Spot gold increased 0.3% to $3,375.29 per ounce, while October gold futures added 0.2% to $3,423.95 per ounce by 00:24 ET (04:24 GMT). Spot prices briefly touched a two-week high of $3,386.49 per ounce.

    Trump Moves to Remove Fed Governor Cook

    In a public letter, Trump stated he was calling for Cook’s immediate removal, citing alleged mortgage fraud as sufficient cause.

    Cook dismissed the allegations, saying Trump had “no authority” to fire her and that she would remain in her position.

    The firing represents Trump’s latest challenge to the Fed as he seeks more sway over its rate-setting decisions. Replacing Cook with a nominee of his choice could increase his influence over the Fed’s seven-member board, which already includes two of his appointees—Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman.

    Waller and Bowman both voted for a rate cut during the Fed’s July meeting, in line with Trump’s preferences.

    Earlier, Trump had suggested he might remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell, after the chair largely rejected immediate rate cuts. Powell last week partially yielded, signaling a possible September rate reduction amid some labor market weakness, but he remained largely non-committal on further easing.

    The president’s repeated attacks on the Fed have raised fresh concerns over central bank independence, potentially undermining long-term U.S. economic credibility. This uncertainty has driven safe-haven demand for gold and other precious metals.

    Metal Prices Benefit from Dollar Weakness

    Other metals also gained from dollar softness following Trump’s move, although the dollar index later recovered above 98 points.

    Spot platinum rose 0.1% to $1,346.40 per ounce, while spot silver jumped 0.7% to $38.8525 per ounce. Both metals have outperformed gold in recent months, as investors sought opportunities in other precious metals after years of relative underperformance.

    Among industrial metals, London Metal Exchange copper futures rose 0.7% to $9,848.85 per ton, and COMEX copper futures gained 0.4% to $4.550 per pound. Industrial metals rallied sharply last week following Fed signals of potential rate cuts, a trend that had delivered only modest gains to gold and other precious metals.

    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • Oil Prices Slip as Traders Weigh Russian Supply and Sanction Risks

    Oil Prices Slip as Traders Weigh Russian Supply and Sanction Risks

    Oil prices fell in Asian trading on Tuesday, giving back some of the previous session’s gains as traders balanced the potential for new U.S. sanctions on Russia with signs of progress toward ending the conflict in Ukraine.

    As of 21:45 ET (01:45 GMT), Brent crude for October delivery dropped 0.5% to $68.46 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 0.6% to $64.44 per barrel. Both benchmarks had climbed nearly 2% on Monday following Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil and gas infrastructure, which raised supply concerns.

    Geopolitical Tensions Drive Market Sentiment

    The Ukraine war remains the key factor influencing oil markets. U.S. President Donald Trump has sought to cast himself as a mediator, warning last week that he would impose fresh sanctions on Moscow if a peace deal is not reached within two weeks.

    Vice President J.D. Vance noted that Russia had made “significant concessions,” including security guarantees for Ukraine, though Western diplomats cautioned that Moscow has yet to commit to a binding framework. Trump has proposed a trilateral summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, although no date has been confirmed.

    The potential for a peace agreement has raised concerns about a global oil supply surplus, particularly if U.S. sanctions on Russian crude are eased as part of a deal. Nonetheless, prices remain supported as optimism over a possible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire has tempered, and additional U.S. restrictions on Russian oil could provide further support.

    Trade Developments: U.S. Tariffs on India

    On the trade front, the U.S. plans to impose an extra 25% tariff on Indian goods starting August 27, bringing the total tariff to 50%, in response to India’s increased purchases of Russian oil. Indian officials have expressed frustration over the measures, emphasizing the need to protect key national interests.

    Some Indian oil processors have indicated they will continue importing Russian crude, suggesting that sustained demand could help support global oil prices.

    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • Ashtead Technology Shares Jump as H1 Performance Meets Expectations

    Ashtead Technology Shares Jump as H1 Performance Meets Expectations

    Ashtead Technology (LSE:AT.) saw its shares rise sharply on Tuesday after reporting higher revenues and profits for the first half, despite headwinds from U.S. tariffs and slower activity in stalled offshore wind projects. The results broadly aligned with market expectations.

    Ashtead shares were up 12.5% at 387p as of 07:34 GMT. Revenue increased 23.2% year-on-year to £99.1 million, driven by organic growth and contributions from the Seatronics and J2 Subsea acquisitions. This compared with a Visible Alpha consensus forecast of £98.9 million.

    “After an encouraging start to the year, Ashtead Technology experienced a slower seasonal ramp up in activity through Q2. This resulted in first half revenues being below our initial expectations for the period at £99.1m,” the company said.

    Adjusted EBITA reached £27 million, slightly below the £27.7 million consensus, with a margin of 27.3%. Adjusted profit before tax rose 10% to £21.6 million. Adjusted EBITDA came in at £38.3 million versus expected £39.2 million, while operating profit reached £23.2 million against a £24.1 million consensus. Earnings per share were 17.2 pence, in line with the 17 pence forecast.

    The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance, after having lowered revenue forecasts for fiscal 2025 in a July trading update.

    RBC Capital Markets analysts noted that many of Ashtead’s oil and gas customers continued to see growth in order intakes during H1, with “near-record backlogs” expected to be executed between 2025 and 2028. They added that these backlogs should sustain a “high level of offshore activity.”

    Following a slower first half and reduced revenue guidance, RBC expects the second half to maintain steadier activity levels, supported by high offshore utilisation across the customer base.

    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • BAT CFO Soraya Benchikh Resigns After 15 Months in Role

    BAT CFO Soraya Benchikh Resigns After 15 Months in Role

    British American Tobacco (LSE:BATS) announced on Tuesday that Soraya Benchikh has stepped down as Chief Financial Officer, effective immediately, after approximately 15 months in the position.

    Javed Iqbal, who previously acted as interim finance director from May 2023 to April 2024, will return to serve as interim CFO while the company searches for a permanent successor.

    “I am proud of my role in the significant progress since I joined BAT, as reflected in our recent results,” Benchikh said in a statement.
    “Now is the right time for me to move on to my next transformation,” she added.

    Following the announcement, BAT shares fell 1.7% in London trading.

    Benchikh, who spent more than two decades at BAT before gaining experience in other industries, rejoined the company in May 2024 as finance chief. She will remain available to assist with the transition until the end of the year.

    The news comes shortly after BAT raised its revenue guidance to the upper end of its forecast, citing increased demand for smokeless products and strong performance in the U.S. market. The company also delivered first-half profits above expectations, buoyed by growth in its U.S. business—the first increase in three years.

    U.S. sales, which represent roughly 44% of BAT’s total revenue, climbed 3.7% at constant currency. Sales of new category products, led by the Velo nicotine pouches, increased 3.9%. BAT noted that Velo Plus is nearing the position of the No. 2 nicotine pouch brand by value in the U.S.

    Like its competitors Philip Morris (NYSE:PM), Imperial Brands (LSE:IMB), and Altria (NYSE:MO), BAT continues to invest heavily in alternative products—including vaping, heated tobacco, and oral nicotine—to counteract declining cigarette sales.

    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • Is there room for oil prices to rise?

    Is there room for oil prices to rise?

    Energy markets have been some of the most sensitive to geopolitical tensions in recent years. In 2022, gas and oil prices skyrocketed after the conflict in Ukraine broke out. Once most of that initial impact had settled, tensions in the Middle East sparked another round of volatility across commodities.

    However, the effect proved to be temporary: as nothing has happened, Brent crude is trading below $70 per barrel again. This is good news for central banks, as lower energy prices help combat inflation. It also provides a welcome boost of optimism for stock markets such as the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones.

    Is another upward surprise possible?

    Perhaps, but only if something serious disrupts supply again. One of the risks in this regard could be Iran. If the nuclear agreement is not reached before the end of August and tougher sanctions are imposed on its oil exports, prices could subsequently see an upside, even without bombs falling on Tehran.

    As for Venezuela, on paper, Caracas has the world’s largest oil reserves, but in reality, it barely contributes to global supply. Years of sanctions plus a lack of modern technology mean production is a shadow of what it could be. So even if U.S.–Venezuelan relations sour further, it probably won’t move the needle much.

    What about OPEC+?

    One might assume that the cartel would be interested in keeping oil prices as high as possible and, with that goal in mind, if they did not cut production, they would at least not increase it. But they did the opposite: +548,000 barrels per day starting in August and another 547,000 barrels per day beginning in September.

    In theory, this puts the market in a good spot for oil bears. Unless a major geopolitical crisis disrupts supply from key exporters while global demand holds steady, there’s little reason for oil to climb back to $80 a barrel. But that doesn’t mean the situation can’t change dramatically in the coming weeks or months.

    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.