Blog

  • European stocks slip as Middle East conflict weighs on investor confidence: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European stocks slip as Middle East conflict weighs on investor confidence: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European equity markets moved lower on Thursday as investors monitored developments in the Middle East, where the conflict has now entered its sixth day and continues to unsettle global markets.

    By 08:02 GMT, the DAX was down 0.4%, while France’s CAC 40 also lost 0.4%. The UK’s FTSE 100 declined 0.1%.

    Iran war testing “global economic resilience”

    Hostilities in the Middle East escalated further after missile strikes by the United States and Israel against Iranian targets over the weekend triggered a broader confrontation. On Wednesday, a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka, while NATO air defence systems intercepted and destroyed an Iranian ballistic missile fired toward Turkey.

    There are few indications that the conflict will de-escalate soon. The U.S. Senate rejected, largely along party lines, a proposal intended to halt the air campaign and require congressional authorization for further military action.

    At the same time, Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Iran’s slain supreme leader, has reportedly emerged as a leading candidate to succeed him, according to the White House—an indication that Tehran is unlikely to retreat under pressure.

    Kristalina Georgieva warned that the crisis was testing “global economic resilience”.

    “This conflict, if proven to be prolonged, has obvious potential to affect global energy prices, market sentiments, growth and inflation. And it would place new demands on the shoulders of policy-makers everywhere,” she said earlier Thursday.

    Eurozone retail sales data due

    Investor sentiment has also been affected by concerns that surging energy prices could drive inflation higher across Europe, a region heavily dependent on imported energy. This has raised speculation that the European Central Bank might be forced to tighten monetary policy.

    However, François Villeroy de Galhau said Thursday he currently sees no justification for the ECB to increase interest rates.

    He added that while the conflict could push inflation upward and weigh on economic growth, the scale of the impact would largely depend on how long the crisis lasts.

    Investors will later receive the latest eurozone retail sales data. Economists expect the January reading to rise 0.3% month-on-month, equivalent to a 1.7% increase compared with the same period last year.

    Earlier Thursday, China set its 2026 economic growth target at between 4.5% and 5%, slightly below the roughly 5% pace achieved in 2025 and the lowest official target since 1991.

    Corporate earnings in focus

    The corporate earnings season also continued across Europe.

    UK consumer goods group Reckitt Benckiser Group plc (LSE:RKT) reported fourth-quarter like-for-like net sales growth above expectations, supported by strong demand in emerging markets, and said it anticipates its core businesses expanding by 4%–5% in 2026.

    German logistics company Deutsche Post AG (TG:DHL) projected higher operating profit for 2026, broadly in line with market forecasts despite mounting geopolitical uncertainty.

    Swiss insurer Zurich Insurance Group (TG:ZFIN) reported record annual profit in 2025, helped by a strong performance from a U.S. business in which it holds no ownership stake and a notably quiet catastrophe year.

    Dermatology specialist Galderma Group AG (BIT:1GALD) more than doubled its peak sales target for the skin treatment Nemluvio to above $4 billion after reporting annual net sales exceeding $5 billion for the first time.

    German residential landlord LEG Immobilien SE (TG:LEGG) also released full-year 2025 results that beat estimates on several key metrics and reaffirmed its 2026 outlook, although rising vacancy levels and a partially share-based dividend moderated the overall performance.

    Oil prices extend gains

    Oil prices continued climbing on Thursday, building on the rally seen earlier in the week as escalating tensions in the Middle East fuelled fears of supply disruptions from a key producing region.

    Brent crude futures rose 2.9% to $83.75 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 3.2% to $77.08.

    Both benchmarks have now posted gains for five consecutive sessions. Brent has climbed to its highest level since July 2024 as traders remain concerned about supply risks tied to the conflict, particularly around shipments passing through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.

    Iran has targeted oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass—effectively halting traffic through the critical maritime chokepoint.

  • Campari beats FY25 forecasts despite spirits slowdown; shares rally

    Campari beats FY25 forecasts despite spirits slowdown; shares rally

    Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (BIT:CPR) shares climbed more than 6% on Thursday after the drinks maker reported full-year results that exceeded analyst expectations, standing out in a sector downturn that has recently pressured competitors such as Diageo plc (LSE:DGE) and Pernod Ricard S.A. (EU:RI).

    For the year ended 31 December 2025, Campari posted organic sales growth of 2.4% and organic EBIT growth of 5.4%, outperforming Visible Alpha consensus forecasts of 1.6% and 1.9% respectively. Net sales reached €3.051 billion, although a 3.0% foreign exchange headwind partly offset the underlying performance.

    The board proposed a full-year dividend of €0.100 per share, a sharp increase from €0.065 previously. At the same time, the group’s net debt to EBITDA ratio declined to 2.5 times from a peak of 3.6 times recorded in September 2024, allowing the company to reach its leverage target one year earlier than planned.

    “Strong business momentum and accelerated deleverage one year ahead of plan allowed us to step-up our dividend payout to further enhance shareholder returns,” said Simon Hunt.

    Adjusted EBIT came in at €637 million, representing a margin of 20.9% and organic improvement of 60 basis points. Recurring free cash flow reached €571 million, with a conversion rate of 73%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were €0.32, reflecting growth of 2.7%.

    A strong final quarter contributed to the full-year outperformance, with organic sales increasing 4.7% and organic EBIT rising 24.3% in the fourth quarter.

    Analysts at Morgan Stanley raised their price target for the stock to €6.60 from €6.30, describing the results as “a very strong end to the year,” while maintaining an “equal-weight” rating. The bank also highlighted some uncertainty around the sustainability of recent growth drivers, noting that shipments in Italy increased 5% in the fourth quarter even as on-trade sell-out declined 1%.

    Looking ahead to 2026, Campari said it expects organic revenue growth to continue at a similar pace. However, the company warned of a potential €30 million impact from U.S. tariffs over the full year, as well as an estimated €70 million revenue headwind related to the disposal of non-core brands such as Cinzano and Averna.

  • STMicroelectronics rises on optimism around China’s tech investment plans

    STMicroelectronics rises on optimism around China’s tech investment plans

    STMicroelectronics N.V. (BIT:STM) was among the strongest performers on the Milan stock exchange today after signals of increased investment in the technology sector from the Chinese government boosted sentiment across Asian tech stocks.

    Shares in the chipmaker climbed about 6% within the first hour of trading, second only to Davide Campari-Milano N.V., reaching €29.52 and returning to their highest level since late February.

    The stock has now gained around 25% since the start of January 2026, bringing its performance over the past 12 months to roughly +28%.

    Speaking at the opening of the annual “Two Sessions,” Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced a GDP growth target for the current year of between 4.5% and 5%, the lowest target set since 1991.

    To support economic expansion amid weak domestic consumption and ongoing trade tensions, Beijing confirmed a budget deficit target of 4% and outlined a policy approach centred on high-technology sectors such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors, alongside strengthening defence capabilities.

    Authorities also introduced measures within the 2026 Action Plan aimed at attracting higher-quality foreign investment and stabilising the property sector, while encouraging stronger collaboration between private capital and industrial innovation.

    Although the growth target is the lowest in decades, markets appear to be responding positively to the clear policy support for the technology industry.

    China represents about 15% of STMicroelectronics’ total revenue, and Beijing’s commitment to supporting consumption and digital infrastructure provides a positive signal for a semiconductor sector that struggled with oversupply during 2025.

    The push toward electric vehicles and semiconductor development is particularly relevant for STM, which supplies components to manufacturers including Tesla Inc. and Geely Automobile Holdings. China’s accelerated adoption of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to boost demand for silicon carbide (SiC), a technology segment in which the company aims to maintain global leadership.

    Local partnerships also play a key role in the group’s strategy. Through its “in China for China” approach—including a joint venture with Sanan Optoelectronics for domestic production—STM can benefit from Chinese government incentives while reducing exposure to geopolitical tensions between the United States and China.

    Separately, STMicroelectronics announced the launch of the STM32C5 family of entry-level microcontrollers, designed for billions of connected devices used in factories, homes, cities and infrastructure.

    According to the company, the new chips are built using its proprietary 40nm process and are based on the Arm Cortex-M33 architecture, delivering stronger performance than existing entry-level devices. They include up to 1MB of Flash memory, enhanced security features such as SESIP3 and PSA Level 3 certification, protection against tampering and cyber threats, and integration with the STM32Cube development ecosystem.

    The microcontrollers are suited for applications including smart thermostats, electronic locks, industrial sensors, robotic actuators and wearable devices. Production has already started, with prices beginning at $0.64 for orders of 10,000 units, and evaluation boards are currently available, the company said.

  • FTSE 100 slips as Middle East tensions weigh on markets

    FTSE 100 slips as Middle East tensions weigh on markets

    FTSE 100 and other European markets opened lower on Thursday after ending the previous session in positive territory, as investors continued to monitor escalating tensions in the Middle East and assessed the latest batch of corporate earnings.

    By 08:23 GMT, the FTSE 100 had declined 0.3%. The British pound also weakened, with GBP/USD falling 0.4% to 1.3323 against the dollar. Across Europe, Germany’s DAX dropped 0.5%, while France’s CAC 40 also slipped 0.5%.

    Analysts at Jefferies said they continue to believe the conflict could persist for two to three weeks, based on missile stockpile estimates and the strategic objectives of the United States and Israel.

    According to the firm, the immediate military priorities include disabling Iran’s missile-launch capabilities to protect U.S. bases and regional allies, as well as weakening Iranian naval assets to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Jefferies added that it expects to fade some of the recent market reactions. In interest-rate markets, the firm considers the recent repricing at the front end of yield curves in Europe and the UK to be unjustified and sees value in buying short-dated rates in both regions.

    The bank said it still believes the European Central Bank is more likely to cut interest rates than raise them this year, although its base case remains unchanged policy. Markets are currently pricing in a rate increase by the first quarter of 2027, which Jefferies argues is unlikely. In the UK, the firm disagrees with the recent sell-off at the front end of the curve and continues to project a terminal interest rate of around 3%.

    UK corporate roundup

    Reckitt Benckiser Group plc (LSE:RKT) reported fourth-quarter like-for-like sales growth ahead of expectations, supported by strong demand in emerging markets. The company said group like-for-like net revenue increased 5.4% in the quarter ended 31 December, exceeding the 4.7% growth forecast in analyst consensus. Emerging markets led performance with revenue growth of 14.6% for the year, while Europe saw a 1.4% decline. Emerging markets now represent about 42% of Reckitt’s core net revenues.

    WH Smith PLC (LSE:SMWH) said first-half trading was broadly consistent with the trends reported for the first 15 weeks of the period. Shares were down about 1.4% in early London trading. Total first-half revenue rose 5% year on year, including like-for-like growth of 2%, slightly below the 3% growth recorded earlier in the reporting period.

    PageGroup plc (LSE:PAGE) reported full-year 2025 results in line with guidance, although earnings per share missed analyst expectations due to a higher effective tax rate. The group recorded gross profit of £769.5m for the year ended 31 December 2025, down 7.6% in constant currency from £842.6m in 2024, while revenue declined 7.4% to £1,596.6m.

    Elementis plc (LSE:ELM) posted full-year results that exceeded analyst forecasts, helped by improved margins. Adjusted earnings per share reached 13.7 cents, beating the consensus estimate of 13.0 cents. The company also announced the sale of its pharmaceutical manufacturing unit to Associated British Foods plc.

    Aviva plc (LSE:AV.) reported operating profit of £2,203m for 2025, representing a 25% year-on-year increase and reaching its £2bn target a year earlier than planned. Operating earnings per share rose 17% to 56.0p, while revenue from general insurance premiums climbed 18% to £14,145m.

    Taylor Wimpey plc (LSE:TW.) reported adjusted operating profit of £420.6m for full-year 2025, in line with guidance of about £420m. The homebuilder completed 10,614 homes excluding joint ventures, a 6.4% increase from the previous year. Revenue rose 13% to £3,844.6m, supported by higher volumes and a 5% increase in the average selling price to £335,000. Adjusted operating margin declined to 10.9% from 12.2% the year before.

  • Coats raises margin targets as 2025 results meet expectations

    Coats raises margin targets as 2025 results meet expectations

    Coats Group plc (LSE:COA) increased its medium-term operating margin target to 21–23% from the previous 19–21% on Thursday and lifted its five-year free cash flow objective to around $1bn. The update followed the release of 2025 results that broadly matched market expectations, with the shares rising more than 3% in London trading.

    The company reported adjusted operating profit of $290m on revenue of $1.465bn. Organic sales were broadly flat compared with markets that Coats estimated declined by low- to mid-single digits. Operating margin improved by 80 basis points to 19.8%.

    “2025 was a transformational year for Coats. We achieved record profit and cash generation, reshaped the portfolio for accelerated growth and reorganised the Group for simplicity. As a result, we have upgraded our medium-term financial targets, including c.$1bn of free cash, and look at 2026 with confidence,” said David Paja.

    Adjusted earnings per share reached 9.3 cents, slightly ahead of the 9 cents consensus forecast. However, earnings were partly weighed down by higher interest costs following a pension settlement in 2024 and a $322m equity raise used in part to finance the October acquisition of OrthoLite for an enterprise value of $770m.

    Analysts at RBC Capital Markets, which rates the stock “outperform” with a price target of 115 pence, said they viewed Coats as “a high-quality business with structural growth potential that is not reflected in a P/E of 11.5x26E with an FCF yield of 9% and rising from 2026E also supportive.”

    The group generated record free cash flow of $160m, surpassing its own forecast of $132m. Net debt increased to $815m from $449m, while pro forma leverage stood at 2.2 times, comfortably below the covenant limit of three times. The company expects leverage to fall below two times by the end of 2026.

    Within the business segments, footwear revenue declined 2% organically, as U.S. tariff disruptions prompted customer destocking that continued through the end of the year. Apparel revenue increased 1% organically despite an estimated 3% contraction in the overall market. Coats said it captured roughly 100 basis points of market share in both divisions.

    OrthoLite contributed $42.6m in revenue and $10.5m in operating profit during its first two months under Coats ownership. The company aims to achieve $20m in annualised cost synergies from the acquisition by 2028. Meanwhile, revenue from fully recycled thread products climbed 43% to $554m.

    Looking ahead, the company expects organic growth in 2026 despite uncertain market conditions and warned that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could pose risks to demand.

    Consensus forecasts for the full year currently point to revenue of $1.76bn and adjusted operating profit of $371m, which management said are consistent with its expectations.

    The board proposed a final dividend of 2.28 cents per share, an increase of 4%. The company maintained its medium-term targets of annual earnings per share growth above 10% and revenue growth exceeding 5%.

  • Ibstock shares fall as full-year results signal softer 2026 outlook

    Ibstock shares fall as full-year results signal softer 2026 outlook

    Ibstock plc (LSE:IBST) reported full-year 2025 results on Thursday that were broadly in line with expectations, though analysts cautioned that slower volume growth and near-term trading challenges could weigh on performance in 2026.

    Shares in the UK building materials group dropped more than 5% during trading in London following the update.

    The company had previously released preliminary figures for 2025 showing revenue of £372m and adjusted EBITDA of £71m, both broadly consistent with market forecasts. Adjusted earnings per share reached 5.7 pence, slightly ahead of the 5.6 pence analysts had anticipated.

    However, cash flow generation and shareholder distributions were weaker than expected. Free cash flow was negative £17m, while the company declared a dividend of 3 pence per share, below the market expectation of 3.9 pence.

    Analysts at RBC Capital Markets said the results pointed to a slower start to the year. “Current trading has been below expectations due to weather,” the analysts noted, adding that adverse conditions had weighed on demand early in 2026.

    The brokerage also indicated that consensus forecasts for 2026 earnings may come under pressure as analysts revise down volume assumptions. Growth expectations are now likely to move closer to flat levels rather than the previously anticipated 2%–3% increase. As a result, consensus adjusted EBITDA could fall into the high £60m range, compared with current estimates of roughly £75m.

    Even with these revised expectations, analysts warned that risks remain. RBC said another downgrade, a heavier second-half earnings weighting and energy cost exposure “is unlikely to be well received,” adding that the company’s outlook will depend heavily on a recovery in demand during the spring selling season.

    Pricing conditions have remained relatively stable. Clay brick prices increased by about 2% to 3% following adjustments introduced in February, while the company has hedged approximately 80% of its energy requirements for 2026, with stronger coverage in place for the first three quarters of the year.

    Net debt stood at around £120m at the end of the period, broadly unchanged compared with the previous year, supported by roughly £30m generated from asset disposals.

  • Babcock reports FY25 results and launches £75m share buyback

    Babcock reports FY25 results and launches £75m share buyback

    Babcock International Group plc (LSE:BAB) reported fiscal year 2025 earnings per share of 16.9 pence, exceeding the consensus forecast of 16.4 pence by about 3%.

    The group generated revenue of £4.9bn for the year, in line with analyst expectations, with organic growth of 1%.

    Adjusted EBITA reached £272m, slightly above the company’s guidance of £270m and ahead of the £267m consensus estimate. The adjusted EBITA margin came in at 5.6%, marginally higher than the 5.5% analysts had projected.

    The earnings outperformance was driven by slightly stronger EBITA as well as lower net interest costs, which totalled £45m compared with guidance of £48m. The effective tax rate of 23% was consistent with the company’s expectations.

    On a reported basis, EBITA was £246m, representing a 3% increase and showing a solid improvement compared with the prior year.

    During the year, Babcock secured order intake of £5.5bn, up from £4.9bn in FY24, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 114%. The order book expanded 9% year on year to £14.5bn, with roughly two-thirds of contract awards linked to the defence sector.

    Free cash flow totalled £219m, comfortably exceeding the analyst consensus of £153m. Adjusted net debt stood at £206m, below the consensus estimate of £232m, giving a leverage ratio of 0.7 times—beneath the company’s target range of 1 to 2 times.

    The net debt figure reflects £245m spent on acquisitions, including the purchase of MT&S, as well as a newly announced £75m share buyback programme.

    Looking ahead to fiscal year 2026, Babcock reaffirmed the outlook outlined in its December trading update. The company expects EBITA of around £300m, slightly above the consensus estimate of £291m. This would represent roughly 10% year-on-year growth and imply a margin of about 6% at the upper end of the group’s medium-term target range of 5% to 6%.

    The outlook is supported by strong order intake during 2025, a full-year contribution from the MT&S acquisition and ongoing productivity improvements.

    Revenue for FY26 is expected to reach approximately £5bn, with organic growth of around 3%. Tax rate guidance remains unchanged at roughly 25%, while free cash flow is forecast at about £160m, consistent with the company’s medium-term objectives.

    Babcock also updated its year-end net debt forecast to £165m from £150m and increased projected net finance costs to £52m from £50m to account for the newly announced share buyback programme.

  • Aviva profit rises 25% as insurer restarts share buyback

    Aviva profit rises 25% as insurer restarts share buyback

    Aviva plc (LSE:AV.) reported a 25% increase in annual profit and announced the resumption of its share buyback programme, supported by higher insurance premiums, growth in its wealth division and the integration of rival Direct Line Insurance Group plc.

    Operating profit for the 2025 financial year reached £2.2bn, up from £1.8bn the previous year and broadly in line with analyst forecasts compiled by the company.

    The insurer, which provides car, home and life insurance across the UK, Ireland and Canada, also proposed a final dividend of 26.2 pence per share and announced a £350m share buyback. The repurchase programme resumes after being paused during the acquisition of Direct Line.

    Within its core operations, general insurance premiums increased 18% to £14.1bn, while net inflows into the group’s wealth business rose 6% to £10.9bn.

    Aviva reaffirmed the financial targets it set out in November, including plans to grow earnings per share by around 11% annually through to 2028. The company also expects to almost double the cost savings anticipated from combining its operations with Direct Line.

    The insurer completed the £3.7bn acquisition of Direct Line last year, marking the largest takeover during the tenure of chief executive Amanda Blanc. The deal significantly expanded Aviva’s presence in the UK motor insurance market and is expected to generate substantial operational efficiencies in the coming years.

  • Foresight Solar Fund reports 99.2p NAV after tax review impact

    Foresight Solar Fund reports 99.2p NAV after tax review impact

    Foresight Solar Fund Limited (LSE:FSFL) reported a net asset value of 99.2 pence per share as of 31 December 2025, resulting in a NAV total return of -0.9% for the fourth quarter.

    The quarterly performance was influenced by several negative factors, most notably the conclusion of a previously disclosed tax review, which reduced NAV by 5.4%.

    Additional downward pressures included higher forecast capture price discounts, which lowered NAV by 1.9%, the effect of subsidy RPI/CPI rebasing at -1.7%, curtailment in Australia at -1.4%, and revisions to power price forecasts alongside other movements that together reduced NAV by 1.2%.

    These declines were partly balanced by a number of positive developments. Extensions to asset lifetimes and lifecycle investments contributed 4.7%, while higher projected energy yields added 3.8%. The time value adjustment net of project actuals contributed 1.5%, commissioning of the Sandridge battery energy storage system added 0.4%, and share buybacks contributed 0.2%.

    An independent portfolio review also resulted in a 2.8% increase in forecast annual production across the company’s UK assets. The group now assumes that most UK sites will operate for the shorter of either their planning permission expiry or a maximum lifespan of 40 years.

    Across the global portfolio, total generation came in 1.3% below the base case scenario, mainly due to curtailment in Spain and Australia. However, electricity output from the UK portfolio exceeded expectations, finishing 3.4% above budget.

    Dividend cover for the year stood at 1.3 times, while the company has utilised nearly £55m of its £60m share buyback programme.

    As of 31 December 2025, the overall valuation of the UK portfolio was estimated at £0.97m per megawatt.

  • Admiral beats full-year EPS forecasts and outlines strategy to accelerate earnings growth

    Admiral beats full-year EPS forecasts and outlines strategy to accelerate earnings growth

    Admiral Group plc (LSE:ADM) reported full-year 2025 results on Thursday, delivering record earnings per share of 115.5 pence, around 3.4% above analyst forecasts.

    Alongside the results, the insurer introduced a new strategy aimed at increasing earnings growth beyond the 7.6% compound annual growth rate achieved between 2020 and 2025.

    Second-half performance largely met market expectations, with group profit before tax coming in about 1.8% ahead of consensus estimates.

    The board declared a final dividend of 90 pence per share, slightly higher than the 89.3 pence anticipated by analysts. The payout includes an ordinary dividend of 72.8 pence and a special dividend of 17.2 pence.

    Within its core UK motor insurance business, full-year profit before tax fell short of consensus by 1.5%. The division reported a combined ratio of 80.5%, compared with expectations of 78.7%, largely due to lower reserve releases of around 10%, below the previously guided range of 10% to 15%.

    However, the current-year loss ratio came in stronger than expected at 72.8%, beating forecasts by 1.3 percentage points.

    The UK Motor segment ended the year with 5.83 million policies in force, up from 5.75 million at the half-year stage and ahead of analyst expectations of 5.75 million.

    Other parts of the group delivered stronger results. The UK Household business reported full-year profit before tax 26.5% above consensus. Meanwhile, the UK Travel and Pet division generated £7.9m in profit before tax, outperforming expectations that it would break even.

    The Admiral Europe Insurance business also exceeded forecasts, reporting £6.6m in profit before tax compared with consensus estimates of £2m. Admiral Money, the group’s lending arm, delivered full-year profit before tax about 3.2% above expectations.

    Looking ahead, the company expects policy volumes to continue increasing across the group and indicated that higher pricing across the UK motor insurance market will be necessary.

    Admiral also provided its first estimate regarding the future adoption of autonomous vehicles, forecasting that self-driving cars could represent around 4% of the total vehicle fleet by 2035. Despite this shift, the insurer said it still expects UK motor insurance premiums to grow over the next two decades.