The U.S. dollar remained relatively stable on Thursday, hovering near multi-year lows as investors awaited the release of the pivotal U.S. monthly employment report. This key data could heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions.
At 04:00 ET (08:00 GMT), the Dollar Index—which measures the greenback against six major currencies—was largely unchanged at 96.420, lingering close to its lowest point in over three years. The dollar is on track to finish the week down about 0.5%.
Market Focus Shifts to Payrolls
Despite recent news including President Donald Trump’s announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam and Republican efforts in the House to advance a major tax cut package, the dollar’s movement was muted. The market’s attention is squarely fixed on the jobs report due later Thursday, as its results could be decisive for whether the Fed opts for a rate cut at its July meeting.
Economists forecast an increase of 110,000 new jobs in June, a slight slowdown from May’s 139,000. However, concerns linger due to Wednesday’s private payrolls report showing the first drop in over two years.
With inflation pressures appearing moderate and the labor market remaining a focal point, investors are closely watching for signs on whether the Fed will continue its cautious approach.
“Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who favors keeping rates steady, points to persistent inflation and a robust labor market as reasons to maintain a restrictive rate range of 4.25%-4.50% for now,” analysts at ING commented. “Any downside surprise in the jobs data would strengthen the case for a rate cut in July, currently priced in at a 26% probability by the market.”
Sterling Recovers Following Previous Selloff
In European markets, the euro edged up 0.1% against the dollar to 1.1806, approaching the high levels seen in September 2021. Eurozone services PMI figures are due later and may influence sentiment, but the U.S. payroll report remains the key driver.
Last month, the European Central Bank reduced interest rates for the eighth time in a year, lowering the deposit rate to 2%, and signaled it may hold steady at its next meeting. Alfred Kammer, head of the IMF’s European Department, noted on Wednesday that the ECB should maintain its current stance unless new developments significantly alter inflation expectations.
“Inflation risks in the eurozone are balanced,” Kammer said at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal. “We believe the ECB should stay on course and keep the deposit rate at 2% unless there’s a major shock to inflation projections—which we do not currently foresee.”
Meanwhile, the British pound rebounded 0.2% to 1.3665 after dropping nearly 1% the day before amid concerns over UK fiscal policy following government delays on welfare reforms.
“Markets briefly feared that Chancellor Rachel Reeves might resign amid fiscal uncertainties,” ING analysts said. “In hindsight, Prime Minister Keir Starmer may have misread the mood of Parliament and the market by hesitating to fully support her—but he has now done so.”
They added, “The UK faces significant fiscal challenges ahead of the November budget.”
Asian Currencies Show Limited Movement
In Asia, the dollar was steady against the yen at 143.88, with traders cautious amid ongoing talks around U.S. trade deals. The dollar also slipped slightly against the Chinese yuan, trading at 7.1621, following a softer-than-expected private services sector reading for June—though growth continues for the 30th month in a row.
The yuan remained relatively unaffected by recent announcements from major chipmakers that the U.S. has eased some export restrictions to China, effective immediately. This development signals an improvement in Sino-American trade relations, just weeks after both sides agreed on a framework trade deal.