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Once again, Donald Trump is talking tough about tariffs, threatening to raise them in dozens of countries, but has not yet acted. Instead, he is leaving space, or rather time, for negotiations. This time, however, the deadline is not three months, but initially three weeks, until August 1.

The markets are barely reacting. Neither the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, or the US dollar index plummeted. Investors seem convinced this is all part of Trump’s usual bluff-and-bargain routine, the now familiar “TACO trade.” It might seem that this game could go on indefinitely without causing real damage.

The uncertainty surrounding US trade policy is one of the key reasons why the Fed has been hesitant to cut rates, despite slowing inflation and pressure from Trump. Not surprisingly, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there is a 93% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady at the July meeting.

Still, investors are betting on two cuts before the end of the year. Hope is driving this market more than logic.

Fear of missing out (FOMO) also helps sentiment, pushing Nvidia to a market cap of $4 trillion, for the first time in history among public companies. Bitcoin also continues to rise, surpassing the $120,000 mark. Now, all eyes are on the upcoming earnings season, which will have to pay off to keep the rally alive.

Analysts are again forecasting a slowdown in earnings growth, just as they did last quarter. But they were wrong then, as most companies beat expectations despite all the trade war noise. This pattern could easily repeat itself, which would help keep bullish sentiment in the US market alive.

Keep in mind also that the effects of trade tensions are not being felt equally across all sectors. Fundamentals seem to remain strong in sectors such as technology, communications, and the defensive sector. Tuesday’s bank earnings reports are also expected to meet, if not exceed, expectations.

The problem is that the U.S. market has been rising for months without a correction, which cannot last forever.

U.S. futures point to a slightly lower start on Monday, suggesting that stocks may extend the declines seen during last Friday’s trading session.

Market concerns remain elevated over President Donald Trump’s ongoing trade disputes, particularly after he sent letters to leaders of the European Union and Mexico threatening to impose 30 percent tariffs starting August 1.

In an early morning post on Truth Social, Trump accused the U.S. of being “ripen off” on trade for decades, resulting in trillions of dollars in losses.

“Countries should sit back and say, ‘Thank you for the many year’s long free ride, but we know you now have to do what’s right for America,’” Trump stated. “We should respond by saying, ‘Thank you for understanding the situation we are in. Greatly appreciated!’”

In response, the EU declared it will delay the enforcement of its retaliatory trade measures against the U.S. until early August, providing additional time to negotiate a resolution.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, addressing the situation during a Sunday press briefing, said, “We will therefore also extend the suspension of our countermeasures till early August. At the same time, we will continue to prepare further countermeasures so we are fully prepared.”

She added, “We have always been very clear that we prefer a negotiated solution. This remains the case, and we will use the time that we have now till the 1st of August (to negotiate).”

The EU’s retaliatory tariffs targeting $25 billion worth of American imports, imposed in response to U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, were originally set to take effect Monday.

Meanwhile, investors appear cautious ahead of several upcoming economic reports, including data on consumer and producer prices, retail sales, and industrial output.

The earnings season is also gaining momentum this week, with major companies such as JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Johnson & Jonson (NYSE:JNJ) and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) scheduled to release quarterly results.

Last Friday, stocks recovered some losses after an early dip but still finished modestly lower. The major indices all slipped, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 retreating from Thursday’s record closing highs.

The Dow dropped 279.13 points (0.6%) to 44,371.51, the Nasdaq declined 45.14 points (0.2%) to 20,585.53, and the S&P 500 lost 20.71 points (0.3%) to close at 6,259.75.

The market weakness was driven by renewed worries over Trump’s escalating trade conflicts.

In a letter posted on Truth Social to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump announced a 35 percent tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1.

He attributed the tariffs partly to Canada’s failure to stop fentanyl from “pouring” into the U.S. and warned that tariffs could increase if Canada retaliates.

“If Canada works with me to stop the flow of Fentanyl, we will, perhaps, consider an adjustment to this letter,” Trump said.

During an interview on NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” Trump indicated plans to impose broad tariffs of 15 to 20 percent on most U.S. trading partners and mentioned he would soon send letters to EU members informing them of new tariff levels.

Trading activity remained somewhat muted overall, possibly due to the absence of significant U.S. economic data keeping some investors cautious.

Airline stocks retreated sharply after a strong rally in the previous session, causing the NYSE Arca Airline Index to fall 2.7 percent from Thursday’s four-month closing high.

Biotech stocks also showed notable weakness, with the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index dropping 1.5 percent.

Other sectors experiencing pressure included networking, housing, and pharmaceuticals, while gold stocks advanced in line with rising gold prices.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

European equities edged lower on Monday following U.S. President Donald Trump’s warning of a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union, sparking fears of a prolonged and deeper economic slowdown.

Reports indicate that the EU has prepared a retaliatory tariff package worth €21 billion ($24.52 billion) aimed at U.S. products should trade negotiations fail.

The STOXX 600, a broad index covering European stocks, declined by 0.3%, following a 1% drop on Friday.

Germany’s DAX Index lost 0.8%, while France’s CAC 40 fell 0.4%. In contrast, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 defied the downward trend, climbing 0.4%.

Automobile manufacturers took a hit, with Volkswagen (TG:VOW3), BMW (TG:BMW), Mercedes-Benz (TG:MBG) and Porsche  (BIT:1PORS) each dropping close to 2%.

On a brighter note, mining giant BHP (LSE:BHP) rose approximately 1% after signing preliminary agreements with Chinese battery makers CATL and BYD to explore opportunities in battery technology and electrification.

AstraZeneca (LSE:AZN) shares jumped 2% in London after positive late-stage trial results showed that its experimental drug baxdrostat effectively lowered high blood pressure.

French defense stocks were on the rise after President Emmanuel Macron called on Sunday for a substantial increase in France’s defense budget, citing escalating risks from Russia.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The U.S. dollar gained modest ground on Monday, while the euro slipped, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 30% tariff on European Union imports. Despite the geopolitical weight of the move, currency market reactions remained relatively subdued.

At 05:30 ET (09:30 GMT), the Dollar Index—which measures the dollar against six major global currencies—was up 0.1% at 97.577. The greenback added nearly 2% last week, marking its strongest weekly performance since early December.

Dollar Finds Support from Tariff Headlines

Trump’s weekend declaration of new 30% tariffs on imports from both Mexico and the EU has intensified global trade anxieties. The duties, set to begin August 1, leave little time for negotiating a resolution, especially after the original July 9 deadline was delayed.

Even with the tariffs looming, market reaction was relatively restrained—especially compared to the volatility that followed Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in April.

“The moves have not been larger since investors see these threats as a Washington negotiating tactic to push the other side over the line into a deal,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

“Our baseline assumes that better deals than this get agreed by the 1 August deadline and that we are not going to see a repeat of the early April market shock in response to Liberation Day tariffs.”

Aside from trade news, currency traders are also looking ahead to Tuesday’s U.S. CPI report and any developments on potential sanctions against Russia.

“Look out for the announcement of any secondary sanctions on those countries buying Russian oil,” ING added. “A jump in energy is good news for the energy-independent U.S. (and the dollar) and negative for the big energy importers in Europe and Asia.”

Euro Slides to Lowest in Three Weeks

EUR/USD was down 0.1% to 1.1683, touching a three-week low earlier in the session following Trump’s EU tariff warning. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen criticized the tariffs as “unfair and disruptive” but confirmed that the EU would maintain its suspension of countermeasures until early August as negotiations continue.

“Those waiting for better levels to buy EUR/USD could be rewarded for their patience,” said ING. “U.S.-EU trade negotiations look set to get noisier over the coming weeks, and baseline expectations that the EU secures a 10% tariff rate on most goods could be challenged.”

Sterling Slides on U.K. Economic Weakness

The pound fell as well, with GBP/USD down 0.2% to 1.3476, marking a two-week low. The move extended recent losses following disappointing U.K. economic data last week, showing that the economy shrank for the second consecutive month in May.

“Investors seem to be taking a dimmer view of sterling, presumably on the back of the fiscal straitjacket currently trapping U.K. Chancellor Rachel Reeves,” said ING.

Asian Markets Stay Quiet Amid Trade Tensions

In Asia, USD/JPY edged up 0.1% to 147.21, while USD/CNY was nearly unchanged at 7.1682. Traders remained cautious as they balanced Washington’s tariff announcements against encouraging Chinese trade figures.

China’s trade surplus for June exceeded expectations, driven by better-than-expected export growth. Mutual tariff reductions under the U.S.-China trade agreement helped boost outbound shipments, including rare earth metals.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

National Grid (LSE:NG.) may benefit significantly from proposed changes to the UK’s electricity transmission framework, according to a research note published Monday by investment bank Jefferies.

The analysis focuses on Ofgem’s Draft Determination, which outlines potential revisions to how project costs are treated under the regulatory model. Specifically, Jefferies evaluated the impact of reduced capitalisation rates on companies such as National Grid, Iberdrola (BIT:1IBE), and SSE (LSE:SSE).

Capitalisation rates affect how infrastructure investment is recorded—either added to the regulated asset base or expensed immediately—thereby influencing earnings and cash flow.

Jefferies projects that if capitalisation rates come in 8% below National Grid’s current business plan assumptions, the utility’s earnings per share could rise by approximately 7p annually, or around 8% above current market consensus, across fiscal years 2026 through 2031.

The projections are based on a maximum pipeline investment scenario of £34 billion outlined by Ofgem. Actual expenditures may ultimately vary.

Jefferies also sees moderate upside for Iberdrola, estimating a potential 4p, or 3% EPS lift via its UK subsidiary, Scottish Power, if similar regulatory adjustments are made.

SSE, by contrast, appears less exposed to earnings upside under the revised model. The company had already proposed a capitalisation rate below 80%, which is roughly in line with the blended rate currently assumed by Ofgem under the highest spend scenario.

While lower capitalisation rates could support short-term earnings and cash flow—especially for National Grid—Jefferies cautions that this might come at the cost of slower long-term growth in the regulated asset base.

Under the draft plan, Ofgem has projected a maximum total grid investment of £80 billion over the 2026–2031 period, including £10 billion in base spending and £70 billion allocated to future pipeline developments.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Shares of UK-listed mining companies rose on Monday, supported by a sharp rally in silver prices, which surged to their highest level since late 2011.

On the London Stock Exchange, Fresnillo (LSE:FRES) gained 3.2%, while Hochschild Mining (LSE:HOC) advanced 5.4%, as investors turned to precious metals amid mounting global trade concerns.

By 09:12 GMT, silver was trading at $39.448 per ounce, up 1.3% on the day, reaching a nearly 14-year peak. The move was fueled by rising demand for safe-haven assets following renewed trade tensions sparked by the United States.

U.S. President Donald Trump on July 12 announced plans to impose a 30% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and the European Union, set to take effect on August 1. This follows a recent 35% duty on Canadian imports and the threat of additional levies if retaliation occurs.

Fresnillo, one of the world’s largest primary silver producers, and Hochschild, which also holds significant silver operations, tracked the commodity’s rally, as investor appetite for metals strengthened in response to growing economic uncertainty.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

U.S. stock futures slipped on Monday following President Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs targeting key trading partners, the European Union and Mexico. Meanwhile, Bitcoin hit fresh record highs at the launch of “Crypto Week,” crude oil prices edged up, and China reported a larger-than-expected trade surplus.

Trump Imposes Tariffs on EU and Mexico

Global trade tensions escalated after U.S. President Donald Trump declared plans to implement 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting August 1. This move follows similar tariffs imposed recently on Japan, South Korea, Canada, Brazil, and a 50% duty on copper imports.

The targeted countries now face a tight deadline to negotiate trade agreements with Washington, after the original July 9 deadline was postponed. Data shows U.S. customs duties hit a record $113.3 billion gross in the first nine months of fiscal 2025 (ending September 30).

U.S. Futures Drop Amid Trade Concerns

Investor nerves were evident as U.S. stock futures declined on fears of a global trade conflict. At 02:55 ET (06:55 GMT), S&P 500 futures were down 0.6%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.5%, and Dow futures lost 0.6%. Last week, all major indices ended a three-week winning streak, retreating from record highs.

Trump’s tariff announcement further unsettled markets ahead of the critical quarterly earnings season, which kicks off Tuesday with major banks like JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup reporting results.

China’s Trade Surplus Expands

China posted a stronger-than-expected trade surplus of $114.77 billion in June, boosted by export growth following tariff reductions under the trade deal with the U.S. This exceeded the forecasted $113.20 billion and May’s $103.22 billion.

Exports rose 5.8% year-on-year in dollar terms, above the expected 5% and the previous month’s 4.8%. Rare earth exports also increased as China eased export licensing in light of relaxed U.S. chip technology restrictions.

However, import growth remained subdued at 1.1% year-on-year, missing the 1.3% forecast but improving from a 3.4% decline the prior month.

This data sets the stage for Tuesday’s GDP report, which is expected to show China’s growth surpassing its 5% annual target.

Bitcoin Hits New Highs at “Crypto Week” Start

Bitcoin surged above $120,000 for the first time Monday, rising 3.7% to $122,020 at 02:55 ET, amid optimism over potential U.S. crypto legislation.

The rally is fueled by strong ETF inflows and growing hopes that landmark bills such as the Genius Act, Clarity Act, and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act will be debated this week in the U.S. House of Representatives.

If enacted, these laws could establish robust frameworks for stablecoins, crypto custody, and the digital financial ecosystem. The bills have President Trump’s backing, who has dubbed himself the “crypto president” and advocated for industry-friendly policies.

Bitcoin’s value is up 30% year-to-date, pushing the overall crypto market capitalization to around $3.78 trillion.

Oil Prices Inch Up Ahead of Trump’s Statement on Russia

Oil futures inched higher Monday as markets await a “major statement” from Trump on Russia, amid frustration over stalled progress in ending the Ukraine conflict.

At 02:55 ET, Brent crude futures rose 0.1% to $70.40 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures increased 0.1% to $68.54.

Congress is advancing a bipartisan bill imposing further sanctions on Russia, pending Trump’s approval. EU officials are also close to agreeing on new sanctions, potentially including a lower price cap on Russian oil exports.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

DCC Plc (LSE:DCC) announced on Monday the sale of its InfoTech business operating in the UK and Ireland to private equity firm AURELIUS, in a deal valuing the unit at around £100 million on an enterprise basis.

The transaction is structured on a cash-free, debt-free, and normalized working capital basis. However, DCC cautioned that the actual net cash proceeds will be “not material” due to seasonal working capital fluctuations and supply chain financing related to the business, which totaled £156 million as of March 31, 2025.

In fiscal 2025, InfoTech contributed roughly £2 billion in revenue, accounting for about half of the total revenue generated by DCC’s Technology division. Despite its sizeable revenue, the business operated close to break-even, delivering less than 10% of the division’s EBITA.

Under the terms of the deal, DCC will keep ownership of its UK national distribution center located in Burnley, England.

This sale follows the company’s earlier divestment of its Health division and marks another step in streamlining DCC’s group structure. After completing these transactions, only the ProTech and LifeTech segments of the Technology division remain to be divested, with sales anticipated in 2026.

The remaining Technology businesses, largely based in North America, generate around £2 billion in revenue and £75 million in EBITA, and are considered more profitable and higher value-add compared to the InfoTech unit facing structural challenges.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.