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  • Wall Street futures point lower as AI concerns pressure technology shares: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq

    Wall Street futures point lower as AI concerns pressure technology shares: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq

    Tech stocks expected to lead declines at the open

    U.S. equity futures traded lower on Tuesday, indicating a weaker start for Wall Street as investors looked set to trim exposure following Monday’s rally. Technology shares were expected to be the main drag after renewed concerns about artificial intelligence spending weighed on the semiconductor sector.

    Samsung sell-off sparks broader chip weakness

    Market sentiment deteriorated after South Korean chipmaker Samsung Electronics suffered a near 7% decline despite reporting a 19-fold increase in second-quarter operating profit.

    The market reaction suggested investors remain cautious about whether the rapid pace of AI-related investment can be maintained.

    “Although Samsung’s results were stellar, investors are getting nervous about the scale of money ploughing into AI and whether it’s a bubble waiting to burst,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell.

    Chip stocks also faced fresh pressure after Reuters reported that Chinese AI startup DeepSeek is working on its own artificial intelligence processor, potentially reducing future dependence on established chip suppliers.

    Strong finish on Monday

    Wall Street ended Monday’s session with broad-based gains following the Independence Day holiday.

    The Nasdaq Composite rose 288.49 points, or 1.1%, to 26,121.16, while the S&P 500 gained 54.19 points, or 0.7%, to finish at 7,537.43. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 155.84 points, or 0.3%, ending at a record closing high of 53,055.91.

    Hardware stocks led the rally

    Technology companies drove most of Monday’s advance, with computer hardware names posting the strongest gains.

    The NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index climbed 3.4%, helped by a 4.4% rise in Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) after President Donald Trump highlighted the company’s computers during an Oval Office event.

    The NYSE Arca Networking Index gained 2.8%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index advanced 2.2%.

    Elsewhere, brokerage firms, banks and steel producers also moved higher, while pharmaceutical, telecommunications, housing and utility stocks lagged the broader market.

    Services activity remains in expansion territory

    Economic data showed the U.S. services sector continued to grow in June, although at a slightly slower pace.

    The Institute for Supply Management reported its Services PMI eased to 54.0 from 54.5 in May, matching market expectations. Any reading above 50 signals continued expansion.

  • European shares trade mixed as investors lock in gains and geopolitical tensions return: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European shares trade mixed as investors lock in gains and geopolitical tensions return: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European markets delivered a mixed performance on Tuesday as investors took profits in technology stocks following recent gains, while renewed geopolitical concerns weighed on sentiment after reports that two commercial vessels were struck by Iranian missiles in the Strait of Hormuz, lifting both oil prices and government bond yields.

    Germany’s industrial output beats expectations

    Economic data released by Destatis showed Germany’s industrial production rose more strongly than forecast in May.

    Industrial output increased 0.9% month-on-month, accelerating from April’s revised 0.2% gain. It marked the strongest monthly expansion since September.

    Compared with the same month last year, industrial production was unchanged after declining 0.9% in April.

    UK housing market returns to growth

    In the UK, the latest Halifax survey compiled by S&P Global showed house prices rose for the first time in four months during June.

    Average house prices increased 0.2% month-on-month, reversing the 0.2% decline recorded in May and exceeding economists’ expectations for a 0.1% increase.

    European indices move in different directions

    Germany’s DAX declined 0.5%, while France’s CAC 40 gained 0.3%. The UK’s FTSE 100 outperformed, rising 0.6%.

    Technology shares remained under pressure as investors reassessed valuations following the sector’s strong AI-driven rally. Infineon Technologies (TG:IFX) dropped 5.4%, while ASML Holding (EU:ASML) lost 5.1%.

    Company movers

    Victrex (LSE:VCT) surged 19% after reaffirming its full-year guidance and reporting stronger-than-expected third-quarter revenue growth.

    Halma (LSE:HLMA) slipped more than 1% after announcing the acquisition of French automated tissue sample management specialist Dreampath Diagnostics.

    Shell (LSE:SHEL) advanced 3% after improving its second-quarter outlook for liquefied natural gas (LNG) production.

    Keller Group (LSE:KLR) climbed 21% to a record high after upgrading its full-year earnings guidance.

  • ITV drops as J.P. Morgan downgrades stock after Sky deal terms disappoint (ITV)

    ITV drops as J.P. Morgan downgrades stock after Sky deal terms disappoint (ITV)

    ITV (LSE:ITV) shares fell more than 6% on Tuesday after J.P. Morgan Cazenove downgraded the broadcaster to “neutral” from “overweight” and reduced its price target to 85 pence from 104 pence, arguing that the company had not achieved the valuation it had hoped for in the sale of its Media & Entertainment division to Sky.

    ITV confirmed the disposal of the M&E business for up to £1.6 billion. The consideration includes £1.2 billion in cash, £200 million linked to the contribution of Love Productions and a further £200 million in contingent cash tied to ITV’s 2027 advertising revenue. Based on a headline valuation of £1.4 billion to £1.6 billion, Sky is paying around 5.6 to 6.4 times EBITDA.

    “In our view, Sky is paying fair value for M&E with Sky keeping all of the upside from cost savings, synergies and strategic benefits, while ITV is bearing separation / deal costs of c£150m and stranded Studios costs of c £30m,” the broker said.

    Separation costs weigh on proceeds

    ITV will also transfer its sports production business to Sky, representing around £50 million of revenue and £5 million to £6 million of EBITA.

    J.P. Morgan noted that net advertising revenue growth is expected to reach 8% in the second quarter, below guidance of 10%, which the broker said was “likely not helped by UK political uncertainty and 3 months of conflict in the Middle East.”

    The bank estimates ITV will receive net cash proceeds of about £1.05 billion from the £1.2 billion cash payment after roughly £150 million of post-tax separation costs. ITV plans to return £950 million to shareholders, equivalent to 25 pence per share.

    Following the deal, the remaining ITV Studios business is expected to carry net debt of 1.5 times EBITDA, with ITV aiming to retain its investment-grade status.

    Regulatory approval still required

    The transaction remains subject to regulatory approval. J.P. Morgan said Sky would control about 70% of the television advertising market after the acquisition, although it would represent only around 7% of the broader advertising market.

    The broker warned that if the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority adopts a narrow definition of the television advertising market, it could require structural or behavioural remedies before clearing the deal.

    ITV Studios becomes the focus

    Following the transaction and the inclusion of Love Productions, ITV Studios is expected to generate pro forma revenue of around £2.1 billion, EBITDA of £330 million and EBITA of £300 million.

    The remaining Studios business will also enter a long-term content supply agreement with ITV M&E and Sky, including a minimum spending commitment of £2.1 billion between 2028 and 2032.

    At ITV’s current share price, J.P. Morgan estimates the implied enterprise value of ITV Studios at about £2.6 billion, equivalent to 7.8 times EBITDA.

    “ITV has not been able to secure the deal that we had hoped for – not helped by the ongoing UK and global political / macro uncertainty over the past 6 months (and indeed the last 10 years since Brexit),” the broker said. “Our PT falls from 104p to 85p – with the 19p downgrade reflecting the lower disposal price, separation costs and stranded Studios costs..”

    J.P. Morgan’s revised 85 pence price target is based on a discounted cash flow model using an 11.4% weighted average cost of capital and a 0% terminal growth rate.

  • Air France-KLM shares climb after JPMorgan highlights upside ahead of earnings

    Air France-KLM shares climb after JPMorgan highlights upside ahead of earnings

    JPMorgan turns positive ahead of second-quarter results

    Shares of Air France-KLM (EU:AF) rose almost 4% on Tuesday after JPMorgan added the airline to its Positive Catalyst Watch list ahead of its second-quarter results, due on July 30.

    The investment bank also increased its price target to €16 from €15 while reiterating its Overweight recommendation.

    Analysts led by Harry Gowers said their forecasts are “materially ahead of Q2 and full-year consensus estimates, with potential for earnings upgrades.”

    Bank forecasts earnings above market expectations

    JPMorgan lifted its 2026 EBIT forecast by 16% to €1.91 billion, placing its estimate around 23% above the current Bloomberg consensus.

    For the second quarter, the bank expects group EBIT of €408 million, significantly above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of €301 million. Although this would remain below the €736 million reported a year earlier because of higher fuel costs, JPMorgan believes stronger pricing across the airline’s network should partly offset that pressure.

    The bank also forecasts Network Revenue per Available Seat Kilometre (RASK) to increase 9% at constant currency, in line with previous management guidance.

    In addition, analysts expect fuel cost recovery to reach approximately 65% to 70%, compared with management’s earlier indication of around 60%, reflecting lower fuel prices than previously anticipated.

    Strong pricing expected to support performance

    “For Air France-KLM, we then see the best opportunity to beat consensus numbers for the Q2 amongst the European flag carriers,” the analysts wrote.

    JPMorgan noted that while airline capacity from Middle Eastern carriers has gradually returned to the market, premium demand and limited long-haul capacity should continue supporting ticket pricing through the second and third quarters.

    The bank estimates that overall market capacity on Air France-KLM’s routes will remain about 2% below last year’s levels during the summer season.

    Investors to focus on guidance and costs

    According to JPMorgan, investors will pay close attention to management’s comments on short-term travel demand, fuel cost recovery, capacity trends in Asia and the Middle East, and progress in controlling unit costs excluding fuel.

    The bank noted that Air France-KLM previously guided for approximately 60% fuel cost recovery during the second quarter without providing an outlook beyond that period.

    By comparison, Lufthansa has projected fuel pass-through of more than 100% during the second half of the year, benefiting from stronger exposure to Asian markets despite having only “a slightly higher % of group capacity than Air France-KLM,” according to the analysts.

    JPMorgan added that previous estimates for 2026 fuel expenses were based on significantly higher fuel prices than current market levels and does not expect the airline to change its full-year guidance for ex-fuel unit costs, which remains in a range of 0% to 2%.

    The bank forecasts second-quarter ex-fuel unit costs to rise by around 1%, although it suggested that estimate “may also end up too conservative given comps and recent execution.”

  • Renault shares gain after report says BYD’s investment approaches were rejected

    Renault shares gain after report says BYD’s investment approaches were rejected

    Report suggests Renault declined two stake proposals from BYD

    Shares of Renault (LSE:RNO) climbed 2% on Tuesday after French financial newspaper Les Echos reported that Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD had unsuccessfully attempted twice to acquire an equity stake in the automaker.

    According to the report, BYD made its first approach in 2024 before returning with a second proposal during the autumn of 2025.

    Renault reportedly maintains independent strategy

    Les Echos said both approaches were rejected, highlighting Renault’s determination to retain its strategic independence and preserve control over its business in the European automotive market.

  • Oil rises as Strait of Hormuz tensions offset expectations of higher supply

    Oil rises as Strait of Hormuz tensions offset expectations of higher supply

    Oil prices advanced on Tuesday after renewed security concerns in the Strait of Hormuz revived fears of supply disruptions, outweighing the bearish impact of increased OPEC+ production and Saudi Arabia’s latest crude price reductions.

    By 04:41 ET (08:41 GMT), Brent crude futures climbed 1.1% to US$72.77 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 1.1% to US$69.30 per barrel.

    Renewed attacks keep geopolitical risks elevated

    According to Axios, citing two US officials, Iran launched at least two missiles at commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, bringing an end to a week-long pause in attacks under an informal agreement with the United States.

    The report said Washington is expected to consider retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets.

    Separately, the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported that a tanker travelling near the Omani coast had been hit by an unidentified projectile, causing a fire. Although Tehran has not officially claimed responsibility, Iranian state media cited anonymous sources suggesting the target was a vessel transporting liquefied natural gas from Qatar.

    Iran has also reiterated that all vessels using the Strait of Hormuz must follow routes authorised by Tehran, warning that any US intervention would be met with “a rapid and decisive action.”

    Supply concerns continue to support crude

    Oil prices have eased considerably since the temporary peace agreement reached in June, after surging above US$110 per barrel during the conflict earlier this year.

    Although shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has gradually improved, traffic remains below normal levels. The strategic waterway continues to play a central role in negotiations involving Iran’s nuclear programme and wider regional security.

    “Oil prices are back to pre-conflict levels, even though the Strait of Hormuz is still only seeing a fraction of traffic go through. There is still supply-chain stress here,” analysts at Deutsche Bank, led by Henry Allen, said in a note.

    OPEC+ production increase caps gains

    Further upside in crude prices was restrained by expectations of stronger global supply.

    OPEC+ members agreed to increase production targets by 188,000 barrels per day from August after similar output increases in June and July.

    The United Arab Emirates also reported crude production above 3.8 million barrels per day in June after leaving the OPEC+ quota system earlier this year.

    Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude for Asian customers, marking the first discount against the regional benchmark since 2020 as Gulf producers compete for market share.

  • Gold slips as traders await Fed minutes for fresh policy direction

    Gold slips as traders await Fed minutes for fresh policy direction

    Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday as investors remained cautious ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes, looking for further insight into the outlook for US monetary policy.

    By 05:30 ET (09:30 GMT), spot gold was down 1.0% at US$4,124.28 per ounce, while gold futures declined 0.8% to US$4,136.29 per ounce.

    Stronger US dollar limits demand for gold

    The precious metal remained under pressure as the US dollar strengthened alongside rising Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to its highest level in two weeks, supporting the greenback.

    A stronger dollar generally makes gold more expensive for international buyers, reducing its appeal across global markets.

    “[Foreign exchange] volatility may stay capped ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC minutes and given a rather empty U.S. data calendar today,” analysts at ING said in a research note.

    Investors await clues from the Federal Reserve

    Market participants are closely watching the publication of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting later this week.

    At that meeting, policymakers kept interest rates unchanged within a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, although several officials indicated that another increase in borrowing costs could still be appropriate this year.

    Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has also indicated that he does not support providing forward guidance on future rate moves, although he acknowledged last week that inflation risks have moderated.

    Interest rate outlook remains uncertain

    Recent economic developments have added to uncertainty over the Fed’s next move. Softer-than-expected US employment figures and lower oil prices following the temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran have eased some inflation concerns.

    Nevertheless, higher interest rates continue to represent a headwind for gold because the metal does not generate income, making interest-bearing assets comparatively more attractive.

    According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign a 56% probability to a September rate hike, compared with around 60% before last week’s US jobs report.

  • US futures ease as investors digest Samsung earnings and Fed signals: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street

    US futures ease as investors digest Samsung earnings and Fed signals: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street

    US equity futures traded slightly lower on Tuesday after the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached another record high in the previous session, with investors assessing Samsung Electronics’ (USOTC:SSNHZ) blockbuster earnings, fresh remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

    Markets pause after record Wall Street close

    As of 03:02 ET (07:02 GMT), Dow Jones futures were little changed, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.8%.

    Wall Street ended Monday on a positive note, with the Dow closing above the 53,000 mark for the first time. Technology stocks led the gains, particularly semiconductor names such as Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC). Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) also advanced after announcing a custom chip partnership with Apple, helping the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recover from last week’s losses.

    Despite the strong headline performance, Deutsche Bank cautioned that market breadth remained weak.

    “On paper the headlines were pretty decent,” analysts led by Jim Reid wrote. “But under the surface, things weren’t quite as robust as they seemed.”

    Samsung delivers record profit but shares retreat

    Samsung Electronics reported preliminary second-quarter operating profit of 89.4 trillion won, or approximately US$58 billion, nearly twenty times higher than the same period last year and above market expectations. Revenue is forecast to reach 171 trillion won.

    Even so, Samsung’s shares dropped more than 6% in Seoul as investors questioned whether current valuations across the AI semiconductor sector have become too demanding.

    Fed keeps inflation firmly in focus

    Investors also weighed comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who warned that inflation risks have become a greater concern than labour market weakness.

    Waller said employment conditions have stabilised while inflation is “taking off,” reiterating that the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation objective remains essential and will not be compromised.

    Banks reportedly consider payments network acquisition

    The Wall Street Journal reported that JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and PNC Financial Services (NYSE:PNC) have discussed acquiring one of Fiserv’s (NASDAQ:FISV) debit payment networks.

    According to the report, ownership of a payments network could help banks reduce the impact of federal interchange fee restrictions, although discussions remain preliminary and no transaction is considered imminent.

    Strait of Hormuz tensions intensify

    Geopolitical concerns also remained elevated after Axios reported that Iran launched missiles at commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, ending a week-long pause in attacks.

    Separately, UK Maritime Trade Operations said a tanker near the Omani coast had been struck by an unidentified projectile, causing a fire. The incidents followed unsuccessful indirect talks between Washington and Tehran over security in the strategic waterway.

  • European shares trade sideways as AI concerns weigh on technology sector: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European shares trade sideways as AI concerns weigh on technology sector: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European equity markets were little changed on Tuesday as investors adopted a cautious stance towards technology stocks amid growing concerns over valuations linked to the artificial intelligence boom, while attention also turned to the NATO summit in Turkey for potential defence spending announcements.

    The pan-European STOXX 600 index was broadly unchanged at 650.84 points by 07:13 GMT after ending the previous session just below record highs.

    Technology stocks lead market declines

    Technology shares were the weakest performers, with the sector falling 1.6% as semiconductor companies extended the global selloff triggered by concerns that the recent rally in AI-related stocks may have become overstretched.

    Chip equipment manufacturer ASML (EU:ASML) and semiconductor producer Infineon (TG:IFX) both declined around 4%.

    Siemens Energy (TG:SIE) also came under pressure, falling 5.5% after Barclays downgraded the stock to “underweight” from “equal-weight.”

    The weakness followed a negative session in Asia, where Samsung Electronics (USOTC:SSNHZ) shares fell despite issuing strong earnings guidance, while Nasdaq futures were also trading nearly 1% lower, reflecting broader caution towards technology shares.

    Defence companies remain in focus

    In contrast, European defence stocks edged higher as investors monitored the NATO summit in Turkey, where member states were expected to announce new defence agreements in response to continued pressure from the United States to increase military spending across Europe.

    The defence sector has been the strongest performer within the STOXX 600 so far this month.

    Swedish defence manufacturer Saab (TG:SDV1) gained 5.3% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to “overweight” from “underweight.”

    Shell advances after guidance update

    Elsewhere, Shell (LSE:SHEL) rose 2.2% after the energy group modestly increased its outlook for integrated gas production during the second quarter.

  • Eurozone bond yields climb as stronger investor confidence reduces demand for safe havens

    Eurozone bond yields climb as stronger investor confidence reduces demand for safe havens

    Eurozone government bond yields moved higher on Tuesday as improving investor sentiment and growing concerns over Germany’s fiscal outlook prompted investors to reduce exposure to traditional safe-haven assets.

    The benchmark German 10-year Bund yield rose to 2.948% in early European trading, while the two-year Bund yield, which is closely linked to expectations for European Central Bank interest rates, increased to 2.54%.

    Stronger confidence weighs on bond markets

    Government bonds came under pressure after the latest Sentix survey showed eurozone investor confidence rebounding far more strongly than expected in July, improving sentiment towards the region’s economic outlook.

    The stronger mood encouraged investors to rotate away from defensive fixed-income investments and into higher-risk assets such as equities, pushing bond prices lower and yields higher.

    ECB comments add to fiscal concerns

    Selling pressure was reinforced by comments from European Central Bank policymaker Fabio Panetta during an industry conference.

    Panetta, who also serves as Governor of the Bank of Italy, warned that European central banks could face increasing long-term political pressure to help accommodate rising government deficits driven by ageing populations and expanding industrial support programmes.

    His remarks added to concerns about future government borrowing requirements, particularly in Germany, where expectations of increased bond issuance have already weighed on sovereign debt markets.

    Markets await fresh US economic signals

    Investors are now looking ahead to the release of the minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting, as well as key data on the US services sector, for further indications on whether global interest rates have reached their peak.

    These releases are expected to provide additional guidance on the outlook for monetary policy and could influence bond markets on both sides of the Atlantic.