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  • Bitcoin rebounds above $68,000 as short covering and improved market sentiment lift crypto

    Bitcoin rebounds above $68,000 as short covering and improved market sentiment lift crypto

    Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) advanced on Thursday, continuing its recovery from the previous session as bargain hunters returned to the market and improving sentiment in global equities helped stabilise the broader cryptocurrency space after weeks of heavy pressure.

    The move higher was amplified by a wave of short covering, with traders betting against the digital asset forced to unwind positions following an unexpectedly sharp price rebound.

    Bitcoin climbed 5.3% to $68,349.6 at 01:22 ET (06:22 GMT), regaining most of the losses posted earlier this week.

    Dip buyers return as short positions unwind

    The rally was driven in part by investors stepping back into the market at discounted valuations, with Bitcoin still trading roughly 50% below the record highs reached in October.

    As prices moved higher, crowded bearish trades came under pressure, triggering a short squeeze that accelerated gains. According to data from crypto analytics platform Coinglass, approximately $468.7 million in short positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours.

    Market sentiment toward Bitcoin had weakened considerably after a prolonged downturn that began late last year. Purchases by large corporate holder Strategy failed to meaningfully ease concerns that prices could fall further.

    Even with the recent rebound, overall crypto sentiment remained subdued. Coinmarketcap’s crypto fear and greed index held steady in “extreme fear” territory as of Thursday.

    Strong equities backdrop supports risk appetite, Nvidia reaction muted

    Cryptocurrency markets also benefited from improved risk appetite following two consecutive sessions of gains on Wall Street.

    U.S. equities advanced alongside a rebound in technology stocks ahead of closely watched results from NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), with crypto assets often showing correlation with tech-sector performance.

    The chipmaker delivered stronger-than-expected earnings and upbeat guidance on Wednesday, supported by sustained demand tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure.

    However, the broader market response remained restrained, with S&P 500 futures declining 0.2% during Asian trading hours. Much of Nvidia’s positive performance appeared already reflected in valuations, while concerns around elevated inventories and exposure to China weighed on investor sentiment.

    Altcoins extend gains alongside Bitcoin

    The broader digital asset market moved higher as well, largely tracking Bitcoin’s rebound.

    Ether, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, rose 9.4% to $2,062.71, while XRP gained 6.4% to $1.4468.

    Solana and Cardano advanced 7.3% and 11.1%, respectively, and BNB added 5.6%.

    Among meme-focused tokens, Dogecoin climbed 8.3%, while $TRUMP rose 3.5%.

    Despite the latest recovery, most alternative cryptocurrencies — like Bitcoin itself — remain significantly below levels seen in recent months following the sector’s broader correction.

  • Nvidia, Salesforce results and U.S.-Iran talks steer global market sentiment: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures

    Nvidia, Salesforce results and U.S.-Iran talks steer global market sentiment: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures

    U.S. equity futures moved modestly lower on Thursday as investors weighed major technology earnings and monitored geopolitical developments ahead of renewed nuclear negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials. Results from Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) dominated market attention, while oil prices held steady near recent highs.

    Futures drift lower

    Futures tied to the main U.S. stock indices edged down as traders digested earnings from artificial intelligence leader Nvidia.

    At 03:05 ET, Dow futures were down 122 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 futures slipped 7 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 27 points, also 0.1%. Wall Street’s major indices had finished the previous session higher as investors positioned ahead of Nvidia’s earnings announcement.

    Market sentiment improved on Wednesday amid renewed optimism around artificial intelligence, marking another shift in what has been a volatile debate over the technology’s economic impact. The Nasdaq outperformed, reflecting expectations that AI investment could ultimately deliver widespread productivity gains, contrasting with earlier concerns that new AI models might disrupt software firms and limit returns on heavy data-centre spending.

    Remarks from Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin also supported equities. Barkin said it remains unclear whether automation will trigger broad job losses and suggested AI could instead enhance labour market efficiency.

    Nvidia muted despite earnings beat

    Nvidia reported quarterly earnings above expectations for the January period and issued revenue guidance that also exceeded forecasts, though its shares showed little momentum in after-hours trading.

    Some investors raised concerns about shareholder returns despite strong cash generation. Yvette Schmitter, CEO of IT consulting firm Fusion Collective, noted that Nvidia generated $35 billion in cash during the fourth quarter but returned only 12% to shareholders, down from 52% a year earlier.

    Schmitter added that “this is happening at the same time Nvidia is claiming” that its sold-out Ampere chips are a “good signal for demand.”

    “[W]hy is the company with record cash generation cutting buybacks by half?” Schmitter said.

    The topic also surfaced during Nvidia’s earnings call when a UBS analyst asked whether the company intended to distribute part of the roughly $100 billion in cash expected this year. Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress said Nvidia plans to continue investing across the broader AI ecosystem, while Chief Executive Jensen Huang argued that AI-generated output will underpin the next era of computing.

    Salesforce drops on cautious outlook

    Shares of Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) declined sharply in extended trading after the cloud software company issued a revenue forecast that fell short of Wall Street expectations.

    The company projected fiscal 2027 revenue of $45.80 billion to $46.20 billion, slightly below the consensus midpoint estimate of $46.06 billion, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. The guidance suggested enterprise software demand may be softening as businesses rein in spending amid economic uncertainty.

    At the same time, Salesforce continues to ramp up investment in artificial intelligence capabilities to counter investor concerns that emerging AI models, including those developed by startup Anthropic, could weaken demand for traditional software services. These worries have contributed to share-price volatility in early 2026 as the company seeks to address what some view as an existential challenge to the software-as-a-service sector.

    Despite the softer near-term outlook, Salesforce raised its fiscal 2030 revenue target to $63 billion from $60 billion previously, citing expected growth from so-called agentic AI.

    “[T]his is not a perfect report, but it should cross the ’good enough’ threshold, with the company’s AI products showing rapid growth (albeit off a very small base) while core business holds in well (in terms of margins and growth) and cash flow generation stays healthy,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note.

    Oil steady ahead of nuclear negotiations

    Oil prices were broadly unchanged Thursday, remaining close to seven-month highs as markets awaited the third round of nuclear discussions between Washington and Tehran later in the day.

    Brent crude futures gained 0.2% to $70.84 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 0.2% to $65.62.

    U.S. officials, including special envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential adviser Jared Kushner, are expected to meet Iranian representatives in Geneva as Washington pushes for progress toward an agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme.

    U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that “bad things” could happen if meaningful progress is not achieved, raising concerns that prolonged tensions could disrupt Iranian oil exports, with Iran ranking as the third-largest crude producer within OPEC.

    Gold edges higher

    Gold prices moved modestly higher as uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade tariffs supported safe-haven demand, while investors also awaited developments from the U.S.-Iran talks.

    Spot gold rose 0.6% to $5,196.55 an ounce at 01:40 ET (06:40 GMT), while U.S. gold futures slipped 0.5% to $5,200.54 per ounce.

    Alongside geopolitical developments, traders are assessing the impact of newly announced U.S. tariffs following a recent Supreme Court ruling that struck down President Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs.

    Markets are also awaiting key U.S. economic releases later in the session, including weekly jobless claims data. So far this year, bullion has remained supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, central bank buying and portfolio diversification flows.

  • European Stocks Mixed as Earnings Season Intensifies; Nvidia Results Beat Expectations: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European Stocks Mixed as Earnings Season Intensifies; Nvidia Results Beat Expectations: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European equities traded unevenly on Thursday morning as investors assessed a heavy flow of corporate earnings across the region alongside fresh results from U.S. chipmaker Nvidia.

    At 08:10 GMT, Germany’s DAX slipped 0.2%, while London’s FTSE 100 edged down 0.1%. France’s CAC 40 outperformed, rising 0.3%.

    Earnings Take Centre Stage

    Corporate earnings dominated market attention amid one of the busiest reporting days of the European season.

    According to Bank of America, fourth-quarter earnings across Europe are modestly outperforming expectations, although the broader outlook remains fragile due to narrow leadership and strong market reactions to companies missing forecasts.

    With just over half of STOXX 600 constituents having reported, earnings per share growth is currently running at around 2% year-on-year, compared with consensus expectations for a 2% decline at this stage of the reporting cycle.

    “The upside surprise to index earnings is dominated by financials and industrials, while tech has been the main drag,” BofA’s strategists led by Andreas Bruckner said in a note.

    Among individual companies, Deutsche Telekom (TG:DBK) reported a 9.2% decline in fourth-quarter adjusted net profit, citing currency headwinds from a weaker U.S. dollar that reduced contributions from its majority-owned T-Mobile US business, while also lowering growth expectations for its domestic market.

    Automaker Stellantis (BIT:STLAM) announced its first annual loss on record after earlier disclosing €22.2 billion in charges linked to a scaling back of its electric-vehicle ambitions.

    Insurance group Allianz (TG:ALV) delivered record operating profit for 2025 but disappointed investors with 2026 guidance that came in below analyst forecasts.

    French insurer AXA (TG:AXA) posted full-year results broadly in line with expectations, with underlying earnings per share increasing 8% year-on-year and reaching the upper end of its target range.

    Swiss chemicals company Clariant (BIT:1CLN) exceeded fourth-quarter earnings expectations, marking its third consecutive year of margin expansion.

    German sportswear manufacturer Puma (TG:PUM) projected an operating loss of €50 million to €150 million for the current year, despite reporting a smaller-than-expected loss in 2025.

    Meanwhile, Schneider Electric (EU:SU) reported record annual revenue, surpassing €40 billion for the first time, supported by triple-digit demand growth tied to data centre investments and setting a double-digit profit growth target for 2026.

    Nvidia Beats Expectations but Fails to Excite Investors

    In the United States, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) reported better-than-expected quarterly results late Wednesday and issued revenue guidance above market forecasts, reflecting continued strong spending by major technology companies on artificial-intelligence infrastructure.

    The semiconductor group projected fiscal first-quarter revenue of $78 billion, plus or minus 2%, compared with analysts’ consensus estimate of $72.60 billion, according to LSEG data.

    Despite the beat, after-hours gains were limited, as investors accustomed to substantial upside surprises over the company’s previous 14 reporting quarters reacted cautiously to what were viewed as relatively uneventful results.

    Economic Data and Sentiment in Focus

    Markets were also awaiting regional economic indicators, including business confidence readings from Italy and Spain as well as broader EU economic sentiment data.

    In the UK, confidence among business and professional services firms improved significantly during the current quarter, ending more than a year of declining sentiment, although consumer-focused sectors remained subdued.

    The Confederation of British Industry’s quarterly services survey showed optimism in business and professional services rising to -3 in February from -50 in November, the strongest reading since August 2024.

    Oil Prices Hold Steady Ahead of U.S.-Iran Talks

    Oil markets were broadly stable, trading near seven-month highs as investors awaited developments from a third round of nuclear discussions between the United States and Iran scheduled later in the day.

    Brent crude futures gained 0.2% to $70.84 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 0.2% to $65.62.

    U.S. envoys, including special representative Steve Witkoff and presidential adviser Jared Kushner, are expected to meet Iranian officials in Geneva as Washington seeks progress on Tehran’s nuclear programme.

    U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that “bad things” could happen if meaningful progress is not achieved, raising concerns that a prolonged conflict could disrupt supply from Iran, the third-largest crude producer within OPEC.

  • FTSE 100 Opens Slightly Lower Near Record Levels; Earnings From LSEG and Rolls-Royce in Spotlight

    FTSE 100 Opens Slightly Lower Near Record Levels; Earnings From LSEG and Rolls-Royce in Spotlight

    UK equities slipped modestly at Thursday’s open but remained close to record territory as investors digested a fresh wave of corporate earnings, including updates from Rolls-Royce and London Stock Exchange Group. Sterling weakened against the US dollar while continuing to trade above the $1.35 level.

    At 0813 GMT, the benchmark FTSE 100 index was down 0.08%. The pound fell 0.2% to $1.3533 versus the dollar. Across Europe, Germany’s DAX declined 0.2%, while France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.3%.

    Globally, markets also reacted to results from NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), which beat revenue forecasts and issued an upbeat outlook but failed to spark investor enthusiasm. Attention additionally turned to geopolitical developments as the United States and Iran entered talks, while artificial intelligence remained a key theme, with investors weighing returns on heavy AI-related capital spending and potential disruption risks, according to Jefferies.

    UK Market Round-Up

    Rolls-Royce (LSE:RR.) reported a 40% rise in annual profit following strong aero-engine performance, alongside upgraded medium-term targets and enhanced shareholder return plans.

    Underlying operating profit reached £3.46 billion in 2025, producing a margin of 17.3% and exceeding the £3.27 billion consensus estimate. Free cash flow totalled £3.3 billion, supported by strong operating execution and expanding long-term service agreement balances, leaving the group with net cash of £1.9 billion at year-end. For 2026, Rolls-Royce expects underlying operating profit of £4.0 billion to £4.2 billion and free cash flow of £3.6 billion to £3.8 billion.

    London Stock Exchange Group (LSE:LSEG) posted a 56.5% increase in pretax profit for 2025 and announced an additional £3 billion share buyback programme. Pretax profit rose to £1.97 billion from £1.26 billion a year earlier, while total income excluding recoveries grew 5.8% to £8.99 billion, or 7.1% on an organic constant-currency basis. Reported earnings per share climbed 85.1% to 238.4 pence, with adjusted EPS up 15.7% to 420.6 pence.

    WPP (LSE:WPP) unveiled a multi-year restructuring strategy named Elevate28, aimed at simplifying operations and restoring organic growth. The advertising group plans to transition from a holding company structure into a unified operating model organised around four divisions: WPP Media, WPP Creative, WPP Production and WPP Enterprise Solutions, operating across North America, Latin America, EMEA and APAC.

    Hikma Pharmaceuticals plc (LSE:HIK) issued 2026 guidance below market expectations, forecasting sales growth of 2% to 4% compared with consensus estimates of 5.5%. Core EBIT is projected between $720 million and $770 million, below the $778 million consensus estimate, while injectables margins are expected to remain below market forecasts.

    Ocado Group (LSE:OCDO) reported stronger-than-expected second-half 2025 performance and said it anticipates achieving positive free cash flow in the second half of 2026, with full-year 2027 also expected to turn cash-flow positive. Group revenue beat expectations by 4.5%, while EBITDA exceeded consensus by 4.2%.

    CVS Group (LSE:CVSG) delivered first-half 2026 revenue growth of 5.8%, broadly matching forecasts as sales reached £356.9 million. Like-for-like growth improved to around 2.7%, reflecting a recovery from negative growth recorded a year earlier. UK operations generated £320.6 million in revenue, with Australia contributing £36.3 million.

    Derwent London (LSE:DLN) reported a net asset value of 3,225 pence per share for FY25, up 2.4%, alongside earnings per share of 98.4 pence and a dividend of 81.5 pence per share. Leasing activity totalled £11.3 million during the year at rents nearly 10% above estimated rental value.

    Howden Joinery Group (LSE:HWDN) exceeded profit expectations for FY25 and announced a £100 million share buyback. Pre-tax profit reached £344.9 million, beating consensus estimates of roughly £331 million.

    Greencoat UK Wind (LSE:UKW) reported net asset value per share of 133.5 pence at the end of 2025, equating to a total return of -4.9% for the year. Shares trade at a nearly 30% discount to NAV, prompting a continuation vote at the upcoming AGM.

    Man Group (LSE:EMG) recorded record organic growth, with assets under management rising 35% year-on-year to $227.6 billion, supported by $28.7 billion in net inflows and strong investment performance. The firm achieved its sixth consecutive year of market share gains.

    Drax Group (LSE:DRX) reported record renewable electricity generation for 2025, producing 6% of UK power and 11% of UK renewable output. Adjusted EBITDA declined to £947 million due to lower power prices, while operating profit dropped following £378 million in non-cash impairments. The company extended its share buyback programme with a new £450 million plan.

    Tate & Lyle (LSE:TATE) said third-quarter trading was in line with expectations, with revenue for the three months to December 31 rising 15% on a reported basis following the integration of CP Kelco.

  • Rolls-Royce Profit Surges 40% as Company Raises Targets and Expands Shareholder Returns

    Rolls-Royce Profit Surges 40% as Company Raises Targets and Expands Shareholder Returns

    Rolls-Royce (LSE:RR.) reported a sharp rise in annual earnings for 2025, driven by strong performance in its civil aerospace business, while upgrading its medium-term financial targets and outlining increased capital returns to shareholders.

    Underlying operating profit climbed 40% to £3.46 billion for the year, delivering an operating margin of 17.3% and exceeding the market consensus forecast of £3.27 billion. Free cash flow reached £3.3 billion, supported by solid operational execution and continued expansion of long-term service agreement balances. The group ended the year with a net cash position of £1.9 billion as of 31 December 2025.

    For 2026, Rolls-Royce expects underlying operating profit to rise further to between £4.0 billion and £4.2 billion, alongside projected free cash flow of £3.6 billion to £3.8 billion.

    The company also lifted its medium-term ambitions, now targeting underlying operating profit in the range of £4.9 billion to £5.2 billion, compared with its previous goal of £3.6 billion to £3.9 billion. Operating margin targets were raised to 18%–20%, up from the earlier 15%–17% range.

    Free cash flow expectations over the medium term were also increased to £5.0 billion to £5.3 billion, compared with prior guidance of £4.2 billion to £4.5 billion. The company now anticipates return on capital of 23% to 26%, up from its earlier target of 18% to 21%.

    As part of its enhanced shareholder distribution strategy, Rolls-Royce announced plans for a share buyback programme valued between £7 billion and £9 billion covering the period from 2026 to 2028, including £2.5 billion scheduled for completion this year.

    The group also declared a final dividend of 5 pence per share.

  • WPP Profit Slumps on Impairment Charges as Group Warns of Weak Start to 2026

    WPP Profit Slumps on Impairment Charges as Group Warns of Weak Start to 2026

    WPP PLC (LSE:WPP) reported a sharp fall in profits for 2025 after recording significant impairment charges, while warning that trading conditions are expected to remain challenging into the first half of 2026, sending the company’s shares more than 8% lower following the announcement.

    Reported operating profit dropped 71.2% year-on-year to £382 million from £1.33 billion, largely due to £641 million in goodwill impairments. Diluted earnings per share swung to a loss of 20 pence, compared with earnings of 49.4 pence in 2024.

    Group revenue declined 8.1% to £13.55 billion. Revenue less pass-through costs — a key industry measure — fell 10.4% on a reported basis to £10.18 billion and decreased 5.4% on a like-for-like basis.

    Headline operating profit decreased 22.6% to £1.32 billion, with headline operating margin narrowing to 13% from 15% a year earlier, representing a 1.8 percentage-point decline on a like-for-like basis.

    Total adjusting items amounted to £939 million, including £641 million in goodwill impairments and £114 million related to property impairments. The company also incurred £68 million in restructuring and transformation expenses.

    WPP proposed a final dividend of 7.5 pence per share, bringing the total dividend for the year to 15 pence, significantly lower than the 39.4 pence distributed in 2024.

    Chief executive Cindy Rose said the group’s recent underperformance had been driven by “excessive organisational complexity, lack of an integrated operating model and inconsistent strategic execution.”

    She added, “Our recent underperformance has been driven by excessive organisational complexity, a lack of an integrated operating model and inconsistent strategic execution.”

    Looking ahead to 2026, WPP expects like-for-like revenue less pass-through costs to decline by a mid- to high-single-digit percentage in the first half of the year, followed by improving momentum in the second half. The company guided headline operating margin to a range of 12% to 13%.

    Adjusted operating cash flow before working capital is forecast between £800 million and £900 million, including approximately £250 million of cash restructuring costs. Excluding those charges, adjusted operating cash flow before working capital is expected to reach £1 billion to £1.1 billion.

    In 2025, adjusted operating cash flow before working capital totalled £1.19 billion, down from £1.34 billion the previous year. Adjusted free cash flow declined sharply to £202 million from £738 million, while reported net cash inflow from operating activities fell to £724 million from £1.41 billion.

    Average adjusted net debt stood at £3.4 billion, slightly lower than £3.5 billion a year earlier. Adjusted net debt at year-end was £2.17 billion, while the net debt-to-headline EBITDA ratio increased to 2.1 times from 1.8 times.

    Across business segments, Global Integrated Agencies reported a 5.7% like-for-like decline in revenue less pass-through costs during 2025, with WPP Media down 5.9%. Other Global Integrated Agencies fell 5.6%, while Public Relations recorded a mid-single-digit decline. Specialist Agencies performed more resiliently, declining 0.7% for the year.

    Regionally, North America revenue less pass-through costs decreased 4.6% like-for-like, while the United Kingdom declined 7.6%. Western Continental Europe fell 4.7%, and Rest of World revenues declined 5.9%, with India growing 3.8% and China contracting 14.3%.

    Revenue from WPP’s top 25 clients declined 4.1% like-for-like in 2025. The company noted improved performance in healthcare accounts, although spending across several other client sectors weakened during the year.

    WPP also unveiled a new multi-year strategy, “Elevate28,” aimed at delivering £500 million in annualised gross cost savings. The programme is expected to require approximately £400 million in cash costs over two years, with a significant portion of savings planned to be reinvested into media, commerce, production and enterprise solutions.

  • Derwent London Posts Modest NAV Growth and Raises Dividend for FY25

    Derwent London Posts Modest NAV Growth and Raises Dividend for FY25

    Derwent London (LSE:DLN) reported higher net asset value and a modest dividend increase for the 2025 financial year, supported by leasing activity and asset management gains across its portfolio.

    Net asset value reached 3,225 pence per share at year-end, representing a 2.4% increase compared with the previous year. Earnings per share totalled 98.4 pence, while the company declared a full-year dividend of 81.5 pence per share.

    During FY25, Derwent London completed new leasing agreements worth £11.3 million, achieved at rents 9.9% above estimated rental value. Since the start of the new financial year, the group has secured a further £1.5 million in leases, with £14.4 million currently under offer, including all office space at Network, and an additional £4.4 million under negotiation.

    Asset management initiatives generated £58.9 million of activity, delivering rental uplifts of 6.4%. The company also progressed its capital recycling strategy, completing property disposals totalling £216.1 million during the year. A further £33 million has exchanged year to date, with roughly £240 million of additional transactions under offer.

    The 25 Baker Street W1 development was fully pre-let, achieving an ungeared internal rate of return of 11.3%. The project delivered an accounting return of 5%, with earnings per share of 98.4 pence excluding 3.7 pence of trading profits.

    Looking ahead, Derwent London expects estimated rental value growth across its portfolio of between 4% and 7% in fiscal year 2026. The company aims to complete £1 billion of disposals over the next three years and is targeting EPRA earnings growth of 25% to 30% by 2030.

    Financial leverage remained stable, with net debt to EBITDA at 9 times, an interest coverage ratio of 3.1 times and a loan-to-value ratio of 29%, unchanged from the prior period.

    The chief executive said the company expects continued increases in portfolio estimated rental values and EPRA earnings, while projecting total accounting returns of between 7% and 10% over the coming years.

  • Getlink Shares Slip After Mixed Results Despite Higher Dividend Plan

    Getlink Shares Slip After Mixed Results Despite Higher Dividend Plan

    Getlink (EU:GET) reported mixed second-half earnings alongside an enhanced shareholder return policy and updated guidance for 2026, with investors reacting cautiously as the shares moved around 1% lower following the announcement.

    Second-half EBITDA reached €493 million, exceeding market expectations by 4.9%, supported by solid contributions from Eurotunnel and the ElecLink interconnector. ElecLink performance was boosted by a €50 million one-off insurance payment, helping lift the EBITDA margin to 57.6%, well ahead of the 54.5% consensus forecast.

    Group revenue for the period totalled €856 million, broadly matching analyst estimates. However, free cash flow fell short of expectations, coming in at €156 million compared with forecasts of €193 million, a miss of roughly 19%.

    For 2026, Getlink reaffirmed EBITDA guidance in a range of €820 million to €860 million. According to Jefferies, the midpoint represents an approximate 1% downgrade versus consensus expectations, largely reflecting a challenging comparison against the prior year’s ElecLink insurance benefit.

    Alongside the results, the company introduced a revised capital returns framework, announcing plans to pay a dividend of €0.80 per share in 2026, increasing by €0.05 annually to reach €1 per share by 2030. Jefferies analyst Graham Hunt said this payout trajectory stands around 23% to 30% above current market forecasts.

    “2026 guidance is a ~1% cut at the midpoint, but all focus will be on shareholder returns, which sees dividend move ~30% above cons. to €0.8/sh, growing 5c/year to 2030 and puts GET on ~4.5% yield,” Hunt wrote.

    Over the longer term, Getlink reiterated its ambition to deliver €1 billion in EBITDA by 2030, approximately 2% higher than consensus projections, while forecasting an additional 2.3 million high-speed rail passengers by the end of the decade — about 5% below prevailing market expectations.

    Hunt noted that while the dividend increase represents a meaningful upgrade for investors, “no buyback will disappoint some.”

    Separately, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets said they “expect an improvement rather than inflection in Eurotunnel’s performance.”

    “Our FY26 forecasts are ahead of consensus, with Eleclink positioned for a return to top-line growth,” they added.

  • ENGIE Agrees £10.5bn Acquisition of UK Power Networks

    ENGIE Agrees £10.5bn Acquisition of UK Power Networks

    French energy group Engie SA (EU:ENGI) has agreed to acquire UK Power Networks in a deal valuing the UK electricity distribution operator at a £10.5 billion equity price, marking a major expansion of ENGIE’s regulated infrastructure portfolio.

    The transaction assigns an enterprise value of approximately £15.8 billion to UK Power Networks, equivalent to around 1.5 times its projected regulated asset value as of March 2026 and roughly 10 times forecast 2027 EBITDA, including contributions from non-regulated activities.

    UK Power Networks reported a regulated asset value of £9.2 billion at the end of March 2025, which is expected to increase to £10.5 billion by the conclusion of the current regulatory price control period in March 2028.

    ENGIE said it will fund the acquisition through a combination of financing measures, including around €5 billion raised via debt and hybrid instruments, alongside a planned divestment programme targeting approximately €4 billion by 2028. The company also intends to raise up to €3 billion through an accelerated book-building equity offering to maintain its commitment to a strong Investment Grade credit profile.

    The company expects the acquisition to deliver an immediate positive contribution to earnings and to be accretive from the first full year after completion, while supporting both its credit rating and dividend policy.

    Completion of the transaction is anticipated in mid-2026, subject to regulatory clearances and approval from independent shareholders of the sellers’ Hong Kong-listed parent companies.

    ENGIE estimates that, together with progress on its divestment programme, the deal will increase group employed capital by approximately €17–19 billion by the end of 2026. Net financial debt is expected to rise by between €13 billion and €15 billion over the same period.

    Catherine MacGregor, CEO of ENGIE, stated that the acquisition represents a decisive step in strengthening ENGIE’s position as a leading utility for the energy transition and is fully aligned with the company’s ambition to become a key player in regulated electricity grid infrastructure. The transaction will enhance the Group’s growth trajectory and reduce its risk profile, providing greater visibility into future earnings, MacGregor stated.

    Basil Scarsella, CEO of UK Power Networks, said the transaction marks a significant milestone in the history of UK Power Networks and for all its employees. By joining ENGIE, the company continues to be part of a global energy leader with the financial strength, industrial capabilities, and long-term vision to support its next phase of development, Scarsella said.

  • From Marginal to Material: Buccaneer Energy’s “Science Fiction” Breakthrough at Pine Mills

    From Marginal to Material: Buccaneer Energy’s “Science Fiction” Breakthrough at Pine Mills

    In the world of mature oil fields, “water cut”, the ratio of water produced compared to the total volume of liquids, is the silent profit killer. For Buccaneer Energy plc (LSE:BUCE), a field once considered marginal is undergoing a radical transformation thanks to a sophisticated organic oil recovery (OOR) pilot that sounds more like biotechnology than traditional drilling.

    In a recent interview on The Watch List, Buccaneer Energy CEO Paul Welch detailed how the company’s pilot program at Pine Mills has achieved a near-miraculous reduction in water production while simultaneously doubling oil output.


    The Tech: Recruiting “Beneficial Microorganisms”

    The standout result of the pilot was the performance of the 206 well, which saw its water cut plummet from 80% to 0% following treatment. To understand how a well goes from producing mostly waste-water to pure oil, Welch explained the biological process behind the recovery.

    Rather than using harsh chemicals, the process leverages the reservoir’s existing ecosystem:

    1. Sampling: Produced water is analyzed to identify indigenous “beneficial microorganisms.”
    2. Feeding: A custom nutrient mix is pumped into the well, causing these microbes to “bloom” (increasing their population by up to a thousandfold).
    3. Action: Once the nutrients are consumed, the starving microbes begin to eat the cellular network surrounding oil droplets stuck to the sand.
    4. The Swap: This biological activity releases the oil to flow toward the well while simultaneously helping water “attach” to the sand phase.

    “It’s really been a remarkable treat for us,” says Welch. “They release oil and they attach water to the sand phase… we only produced oil [from the 206 well] for a period.”


    Efficiency by the Numbers

    For investors, the most compelling aspect of the OOR program isn’t just the chemistry, it’s the capital efficiency. Welsh noted that the cost of the pilot was comparable to a routine well workover, yet the returns are projected to be “exceptional.”

    Financial & Operational Highlights:

    MetricPre-PilotPost-Pilot (Projected/Current)
    Water Cut (Well 206)80%0% (initially)
    Production (Pilot Area)15 bopd30 bopd
    Operating Costs (OPEX)~$20/barrelTargeting ~$5/barrel
    Internal Rate of ReturnN/A99% (at current prices)

    While the current incremental increase is a modest 15 barrels per day (bopd), the scalability is the real story. Buccaneer plans to expand the treatment across the remaining wells in “Battery 3” and the wider Pine Mills field in Q2.


    The Path to Free Cash Flow

    If the expansion goes to plan, Welch targets an additional 45 to 60 barrels per day across the entire field. At current netbacks, this could translate into roughly $60,000 in additional free cash flow per month.

    “That’s another $600,000 to $650,000 in cash over 10 months,” Welsh explains. “For what we described prior to this as a marginal field, that is a lot.”

    The ultimate impact on the bottom line will depend on the decline rate. While the company is currently modeling a 40% decline for the incremental barrels until they hit the standard field decline of 5–8%, the reduction in OPEX remains a massive lever. By reducing the volume of water that needs to be processed and disposed of, Buccaneer hopes to bring Pine Mills’ operating costs closer to those of its “Fain” area, which operates at just $5 per barrel.


    Looking Ahead

    With a 99% IRR and a successful proof-of-concept in the bag, Buccaneer Energy is no longer looking at Pine Mills as a legacy asset, but as a cash-flow engine. Partnering with Hunting plc on the technology, the company is moving quickly to turn this recovery method into a field-wide reality by the end of the year.

    For more information on Buccaneer Energy visit – https://buccaneerenergy.co.uk/