Futures tied to major U.S. stock indices showed little movement on Friday, as investors remained cautious amid a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Ongoing Israeli strikes against Hezbollah-linked targets in Lebanon have heightened uncertainty ahead of potential weekend talks between Washington and Tehran. At the same time, oil prices edged higher while gold slipped, with market participants also preparing for key U.S. inflation data.
Futures remain subdued
U.S. equity futures traded with a cautious tone early in the session, reflecting concerns over geopolitical tensions, continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and the imminent release of inflation figures.
As of 03:27 ET, Dow futures were down 60 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures fell by 4 points, or 0.15%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were largely unchanged.
Wall Street closed the previous session higher, supported by remarks from Benjamin Netanyahu indicating that Israel may pursue talks with Lebanon. Despite the announcement of a temporary ceasefire earlier in the week, Israeli forces have continued targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah positions, including strikes reported on Friday.
Iranian officials have suggested that continued Israeli military action could jeopardize any planned negotiations with the U.S., particularly if attacks persist. There also appears to be disagreement between Washington and Tehran over whether Lebanon is covered by the current ceasefire arrangement.
Even so, expectations for a potential easing of tensions have helped sustain risk appetite. U.S. equities have now recorded seven consecutive sessions of gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average returning to positive territory for the year.
Outside geopolitical developments, consumer discretionary stocks were supported after Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) CEO Andy Jassy said the company’s cloud-based artificial intelligence services are generating more than $15 billion in revenue.
Oil rises on supply disruptions
Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily constrained, with volumes still running below 10% of normal levels despite the ceasefire.
Iran has instructed vessels to remain within its territorial waters when passing through the strait, a critical route for global oil supplies. This disruption continues to impact countries heavily reliant on energy imports, particularly in Asia, while Europe depends on gas supplies from Gulf nations affected by recent tensions.
In addition, attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have reduced oil production capacity by roughly 600,000 barrels per day and cut flows along the East-West Pipeline by about 700,000 barrels per day.
These supply concerns helped push oil prices higher. Brent crude rose 1.4% to $97.24 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 1.4% to $99.25. Although the ceasefire has set crude on course for its sharpest weekly decline since June 2025, prices remain elevated compared with pre-conflict levels.
Gold dips but set for weekly gain
Gold prices moved lower during European trading but remained on track for a weekly advance.
Despite its traditional role as a safe-haven asset, gold has struggled during the Iran conflict. Higher oil prices have fueled inflation concerns and strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer, which tends to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold.
Investors have instead favored the U.S. dollar, which has strengthened and made gold more expensive for international buyers. However, the dollar has weakened over the past week amid renewed optimism around a potential ceasefire.
“These levels clearly embed plenty of optimism, but another leg lower for USD is on the cards once, or if, a permanent peace deal is agreed and Strait of Hormuz flows resume,” analysts at ING said in a note.
Focus turns to inflation data
Attention now shifts to the release of U.S. consumer price index data for March, which could provide insight into the inflationary impact of recent energy price increases.
Economists expect headline inflation to accelerate sharply from February levels, driven largely by rising gasoline prices linked to geopolitical tensions. The national average price of gasoline has climbed above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years, while diesel prices have also surged.
However, the data is likely to capture only the immediate effects of higher oil prices. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is expected to rise at a more moderate pace.
ING analysts noted that the Federal Reserve may place less emphasis on the headline figure in the near term.
TSMC posts strong revenue growth
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSM) reported a sharp increase in first-quarter revenue, driven by strong demand tied to artificial intelligence.
March revenue climbed 45.2% year on year to T$415.19 billion ($13.07 billion), while rising 30.7% compared with February.
For the quarter, total revenue reached T$1.13 trillion, slightly exceeding estimates and marking a significant increase from T$839.25 billion recorded a year earlier.
