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Gold traded lower on Friday but remained on track to finish the week in positive territory, as geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East continued to support demand for safe-haven assets despite increasing expectations that U.S. interest rates could stay elevated for longer.

At 02:14 ET (06:14 GMT), spot gold (XAU/USD) declined 0.5% to $4,030.55 per ounce, while gold futures slipped 0.4% to $4,032.75. Silver (XAG/USD) fell 0.4% to $57.42 per ounce, and platinum (XPT/USD) lost 0.7% to $1,585.43.

Safe-haven demand offsets pressure from higher rates

Although bullion extended the previous session’s losses, it was still up around 0.8% for the week, putting it on course for its first weekly advance in three weeks.

Demand for defensive assets remained supported by renewed conflict in the Middle East after Iran-backed Houthi forces attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Following the incident, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that Iran would be held responsible for any future Houthi attacks on commercial vessels and indicated that additional military action remained an option.

Geopolitical uncertainty increased further after reports that Iran rejected a U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal, reducing hopes that tensions could ease in the near term.

The latest escalation also contributed to higher oil prices, adding to inflation concerns across financial markets.

Strong economic data reinforces Fed expectations

Gold also came under pressure from stronger-than-expected U.S. labour market data, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep monetary policy restrictive.

Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 187,000, the lowest reading in decades, helping lift the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to its highest level since January 2025.

Investors are currently pricing in roughly a 34% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting as resilient employment data and rising energy costs continue to cloud the inflation outlook.

Nomura analysts expect policymakers to leave rates unchanged, noting that Chair Kevin Warsh is unlikely to provide major policy signals because updated economic forecasts and a revised dot plot are not scheduled for the July meeting.

Technical outlook continues to favour buyers

IG senior market analyst Tony Sycamore said higher Treasury yields, a stronger U.S. dollar and increased geopolitical uncertainty have all contributed to gold’s recent weakness.

The U.S. Dollar Index remained close to 101.45 after Thursday’s gains, while elevated bond yields continued to reduce the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets.

Nevertheless, Sycamore believes gold remains technically well positioned after establishing support above the late-June low near $3,942.

A decisive break above the early-July peak at $4,202 could strengthen bullish momentum and potentially drive prices toward the 200-day moving average around $4,495.

IG continues to hold a cautiously positive outlook provided prices remain above late-June support, although next week’s Federal Reserve decision and geopolitical developments are expected to be the key market catalysts.

Crude oil prices eased on Friday, but both major benchmarks remained on track to post their biggest weekly advances in months as escalating conflict in the Middle East continued to fuel concerns over global supply security.

Although prices retreated from Thursday’s sharp rally, traders remained focused on the risk of further disruptions to key shipping lanes and oil-export infrastructure.

Brent slips after breaking above $100

At 07:47 GMT, Brent crude futures were trading $1.82 lower, or 1.81%, at $98.87 per barrel after surging more than 7% in the previous session. Thursday’s rally briefly lifted Brent above $100 per barrel for the first time since May after Iran-backed Houthi forces claimed responsibility for attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea.

Even after Friday’s decline, Brent remained on course for a weekly gain of approximately 12%.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also moved lower, falling $1.60, or 1.74%, to $90.59 per barrel. The U.S. benchmark was still set to finish the week almost 10% higher.

Geopolitical risks continue to dominate trading

Concerns over the security of global oil supplies remain the primary driver of market sentiment.

“Major hubs of oil production or supply routes are surrounded by war,” said PVM Oil Associates analyst John Evans. “The short-term outlook is bullish.”

U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran and its Houthi allies that they would face “major military punishment” following attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

Reports indicate that Iran has encouraged the Houthis to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure continue. The waterway is one of the world’s most strategically important energy shipping routes after the Strait of Hormuz.

Earlier this week, the Houthis also announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, increasing fears of prolonged supply disruptions.

Tanker traffic and supply outlook remain key concerns

Shipping data from Kpler showed that only one tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, marking the lowest daily traffic since 7 May.

Analysts at JPMorgan estimate that each additional month of supply disruption could increase Brent prices by between $7 and $8 per barrel. If interruptions persist for three months, average monthly Brent prices could approach $114 per barrel.

Fresh supply risks emerge beyond the Middle East

Elsewhere, Russia reported overnight strikes against infrastructure at three Ukrainian ports, including fuel depots and cargo handling facilities.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan said several oil producers temporarily reduced production after suspected Ukrainian drone attacks forced the closure of the country’s main Black Sea export terminal, adding another source of uncertainty to global energy markets.

Wise PLC (LSE:WISE) shares dropped 7.5% in after-hours trading on Thursday after the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) rejected the company’s application for a national trust bank charter.

The decision delays Wise’s plans to establish a direct connection to the U.S. payments infrastructure, a move the company believes would have reduced transaction costs and improved pricing for customers.

OCC cites regulatory and procedural factors

According to the OCC, the application was denied for two main reasons. The regulator pointed to the Federal Reserve’s suspension of new Tier 3 master account approvals, which has remained in place since Wise submitted its application in June 2025, as well as existing consent orders issued against the company by several U.S. states.

Wise originally applied for the charter more than a year ago. Shortly after filing its application in July 2025, the company became subject to a Multi-State Consent Order.

Since then, Wise said it has strengthened its U.S. compliance framework by enhancing customer data integrity, improving investigation and reporting procedures, and expanding resources dedicated to regulatory compliance.

Existing operations remain unchanged

The company stressed that the OCC’s decision will not affect its current business activities in the United States or internationally.

Wise continues to operate through money transmitter licences covering 48 U.S. states and four territories, alongside more than 80 regulatory licences worldwide. The proposed national trust bank charter was designed to provide direct access to the Federal Reserve’s payment systems, bringing the U.S. market into line with similar payment arrangements the company has established in other jurisdictions.

Wise plans to reapply under new framework

Rather than abandoning its plans, Wise intends to submit a fresh application under the recently introduced GENIUS Act framework, which management believes offers a more suitable regulatory pathway.

The company said its objective remains securing direct connectivity to FedNow and Fedwire, adding that the new application should not be viewed as a strategic shift towards stablecoin-related activities.

Regulatory scrutiny remains in focus

The OCC’s decision adds to a period of increased regulatory attention for Wise. Earlier this year, the company also faced money laundering allegations in Belgium, adding another layer of uncertainty for investors as it continues to pursue its long-term U.S. expansion strategy.

Ubisoft (EU:UBI) shares fell more than 4% on Friday after the company’s first-quarter results failed to convince investors that the strong commercial launch of Assassin’s Creed Black Flag Resynced would translate into improved financial guidance.

The French video game publisher reported first-quarter net bookings of €255.8 million, a decline of 9.2% compared with the same period last year. However, the figure was slightly ahead of both the company’s guidance of around €250 million and the market consensus of €254.8 million.

Performance was supported by a record quarter for Invincible: Guarding the Globe, while the remainder of Ubisoft’s portfolio, including Rainbow Six Siege, broadly met expectations.

Back catalogue weakness offsets recent game success

Revenue from Ubisoft’s back catalogue continued to weaken, with net bookings falling 15.1% to €221.0 million. Digital net bookings also declined 17.6% year-on-year to €206.2 million.

Investor attention quickly shifted to the company’s forward guidance. Ubisoft forecast second-quarter net bookings of approximately €370 million, well below analysts’ consensus estimate of €399.3 million, despite the reporting period including the launch of Assassin’s Creed Black Flag Resynced.

The company also left its full-year outlook unchanged, continuing to forecast a high single-digit percentage decline in net bookings, a high single-digit negative non-IFRS operating margin and free cash flow consumption of no more than €500 million.

Analysts question guidance after strong game launch

“This is where the numbers stop adding up,” Bernstein analyst Aleksander Peterc said.

He noted that Assassin’s Creed Black Flag Resynced sold 3.5 million copies during its first 14 days on sale and achieved an 84 rating on OpenCritic and Metacritic, the highest score for the Assassin’s Creed franchise since the original Black Flag launched in 2013. Ubisoft said the game had “already exceeded the annual expectations we had.”

According to Peterc, only around €15 million of Black Flag pre-shipments were recognised during the first quarter, meaning the title contributed only modestly to the reported financial results. He argued that maintaining second-quarter guidance below market expectations and leaving the full-year outlook unchanged appears difficult to reconcile with the game’s early commercial performance.

The analyst suggested that weaker trends across Ubisoft’s broader game portfolio and partnership activities may be offsetting the success of the latest Assassin’s Creed release.

“Our readthrough is that the group’s broader operational recovery remains unproven and highly reliant on a narrow set of hits,” Peterc wrote.

Restructuring strategy continues

Chief Executive Yves Guillemot said the performance of Assassin’s Creed Black Flag Resynced demonstrated the effectiveness of Ubisoft’s restructuring programme, cost reduction initiatives and strategy of concentrating development resources on larger franchises.

The company has reorganised its operations into five dedicated “creative houses”, each responsible for a specific category of games. The first of these, Vantage Studios, is backed by Tencent Holdings and oversees franchises including Assassin’s Creed, Far Cry and Rainbow Six.

Ubisoft continues to reduce costs across the business. Last month, the publisher announced the closure of its Winnipeg and Belgrade studios, together with the restructuring of its Barcelona operations.

After benefiting from exceptionally strong player engagement during the pandemic, Ubisoft has since faced increasing competition, development delays, technical issues and project cancellations, leading to multiple profit warnings. The company’s shares have fallen by almost 50% over the past 12 months.

Carrefour (EU:CA) shares dropped 5.3% to €15.635 after the retailer’s first-half 2026 results prompted a negative market reaction. Although the company delivered higher earnings and operating profit, investors focused on weaker underlying trends, particularly margin pressure and mixed sales performance in several of its key markets.

Margin weakness overshadows earnings growth

Adjusted earnings per share increased 18.3% year-on-year to €0.49, while recurring operating income rose 4.0% to €757 million.

Despite these improvements, the group’s gross margin declined by 28 basis points, becoming the main concern for investors. In France, which generates around half of Carrefour’s net sales, legacy hypermarkets recorded almost flat like-for-like growth during the second quarter. Meanwhile, Brazil returned to positive comparable sales only marginally after a weaker first quarter.

The results reinforced concerns that had emerged ahead of the earnings release, including expectations that operating income in France and Brazil could fall short of market forecasts.

Limited market support amplifies share price decline

The broader equity market offered little assistance, with France’s CAC 40 trading broadly unchanged and U.S. markets delivering mixed performances.

At the same time, major European food retailers, including Ahold Delhaize and Colruyt Group, did not release significant news, leaving Carrefour’s decline largely company-specific rather than part of a wider sector sell-off.

Investor expectations reset after strong share price performance

While Carrefour delivered stronger headline profitability, the combination of margin compression and softer operating trends disappointed investors who had anticipated a more pronounced recovery.

Following a strong run in the shares before the results, the earnings announcement prompted profit-taking, sending the stock as low as €15.215 during the session and leaving it well below its 52-week high of €17.535.