BP Plc (LSE:BP.) said it expects to book post-tax impairments of between $4 billion and $5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, largely linked to its gas and low-carbon energy activities, as weaker oil and gas prices reduce asset values. The announcement weighed on the shares in Wednesday trading.
The company said the write-downs are mainly associated with its transition-related businesses and will be excluded from underlying replacement cost profit. However, analysts at Jefferies cautioned that the charges could still have an adverse effect on gearing.
Jefferies characterised the update as a “small -ve”, estimating a roughly 5% cut to consensus net income of $1.83 billion. The downgrade was attributed primarily to weaker-than-expected price realisations in the gas and low-carbon energy division.
BP said net debt is forecast to decline to between $22 billion and $23 billion by the end of the quarter, compared with $26.1 billion at the end of the third quarter. The reduction is supported by around $3.5 billion of divestment proceeds. Full-year divestments are now expected to total about $5.3 billion, exceeding earlier guidance of $4 billion. Jefferies said the pace of debt reduction broadly matches expectations, although it sits slightly above consensus forecasts.
Group upstream production is expected to be broadly flat quarter on quarter, in line with guidance. Oil output is forecast to be unchanged, while gas and low-carbon energy production is expected to decline. Figures include BP’s share of equity-accounted entities.
Within oil production and operations, weaker realised prices and timing effects in the Gulf of America and the United Arab Emirates are expected to lower underlying replacement cost EBIT by $0.2 billion to $0.4 billion. Jefferies described this impact as marginally negative relative to consensus assumptions.
In the gas and low-carbon energy segment, realisations are expected to reduce underlying replacement cost EBIT by $0.1 billion to $0.3 billion, including the impact of non-Henry Hub gas pricing. Gas marketing and trading performance is expected to be “average,” similar to the previous quarter, which Jefferies identified as the main downside driver in the update.
The customers and products division is expected to reflect seasonally lower customer volumes alongside broadly flat fuel margins. Realised refining margins are projected at around $0.1 billion, offset by increased turnaround activity and temporary capacity reductions following a fire at the Whiting refinery. Oil trading results are expected to remain weak, consistent with the third quarter, which Jefferies said was already anticipated by the market.
BP also disclosed that Brent crude prices averaged $63.73 per barrel during the fourth quarter, down from $69.13 in the previous quarter. Henry Hub gas prices averaged $3.55 per mmbtu, compared with $3.07 previously, while BP’s refining indicator margin fell to $15.2 per barrel from $15.8.
Finally, the company said its full-year 2025 underlying effective tax rate is now expected to be around 42%, above earlier guidance of roughly 40%, mainly reflecting changes in the geographical mix of profits. Jefferies said this was not a major surprise but noted it adds modest pressure at the group level.
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