ADVFN UK Market News

Category: Top Story

  • Goldman Lifts 2027 Oil Outlook as Middle East Shipping Risks Persist

    Goldman Lifts 2027 Oil Outlook as Middle East Shipping Risks Persist

    Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price outlook higher as its strategists factor continued Middle East shipping disruptions into their expectations for 2027.

    The bank increased its Brent and WTI projections by $5 per barrel. Strategists led by Daan Struyven now forecast Brent at $85 per barrel and WTI at $80 for December 2026, followed by respective prices of $80 and $75 during 2027.

    Brent spot futures have reached $97, while oil options indicate a higher probability of prices exceeding $100 next year. Goldman said the options-implied probability of Brent trading above $100 in March 2027 has risen to around 25%, compared with approximately 6% a month earlier.

    Goldman Points to Limited Drawdown in OECD Inventories

    Despite incorporating longer-lasting Middle East shipping disruptions into its outlook, Goldman made what it described as a modest adjustment to its oil price estimates.

    One factor is the movement in OECD commercial inventories, which the bank said have “barely drawn since the war began.” Goldman attributed this to a smaller-than-expected deficit and said inventory reductions have been concentrated in strategic reserves, oil held on water and China.

    The bank’s projections also assume further adaptation of Middle Eastern supplies. Under its assumptions, production gradually recovers in the second half of 2027 as additional pipelines begin operating.

    Goldman said current levels of visible global oil inventories and OECD strategic reserves should not necessarily be interpreted as indicating an imminent price increase. The bank noted that Brent traded at $76 per barrel when visible global inventories reached their lowest recorded level in November 2024.

    Its estimates show global landed oil inventories declining from 9.1 billion barrels before the war to about 8.6 billion barrels currently. Goldman said that level remains above estimates for minimum operational storage.

    Chinese crude demand is another factor in the outlook. Price-sensitive crude imports into China remain approximately 30% below their year-earlier level and are expected by Goldman to moderate potential price increases.

    Brent Could Exceed $120 Under Goldman’s Upside Scenario

    Goldman said the risks surrounding its projections are “significantly tilted to the upside on net, especially near-term.”

    The bank’s upside scenario would see Brent rise above $120 per barrel if average Gulf production during 2027 remains 4 million barrels per day below pre-war output. That compares with a reduction of 0.5 million barrels per day incorporated into Goldman’s base-case assumptions.

    According to the strategists, increased attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea represent the most likely trigger for that scenario.

    Goldman also outlined a downside case in which Brent falls into the $60s during 2027. That scenario assumes average Gulf production reaches 1 million barrels per day above its pre-war level.

    The bank continues to recommend deferred March 2027 to December 2027 European diesel timespreads as a hedge against geopolitical risk. Goldman said those spreads could increase by more than 100% if continued refinery outages in Russia or the Middle East keep the nearby nine-month spread around current levels.

  • US Futures Advance as Oil Retreats and Investors Assess August Inflation: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street

    US Futures Advance as Oil Retreats and Investors Assess August Inflation: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street

    US equity futures moved higher on Friday as crude oil prices pulled back below $100 a barrel and investors assessed August consumer inflation figures ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting.

    US crude futures declined nearly 3% after gaining more than 12% since the start of the week.

    The decline followed a Financial Times report that Iran and Oman are expected to meet Gulf states next week to discuss reopening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    The move in futures followed several sessions of losses on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 ending Thursday at their lowest closing levels in more than a month.

    August CPI Rises 0.4% as Core Inflation Exceeds Forecast

    US futures remained higher following the Labor Department’s latest consumer price report.

    The consumer price index increased 0.4% month on month in August after rising 0.1% in July, matching economists’ forecasts.

    Excluding food and energy, core consumer prices increased 0.3%, compared with a 0.2% rise in July and expectations for another 0.2% increase.

    Headline CPI was unchanged at 3.4% on an annual basis. Annual core inflation eased to 2.4% from 2.5% in July, in line with expectations.

    The inflation report comes ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting next week.

    US Equities Extend Losses in Thursday Session

    Wall Street’s major indices declined on Thursday as crude oil prices and US Treasury yields moved higher.

    The Dow fell 316.56 points, or 0.6%, to 52,064.10, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 171.62 points, or 0.7%, to close at 26,081.72. The S&P 500 declined 44.66 points, or 0.6%, to 7,591.70.

    The session left the Dow and S&P 500 at their lowest closing levels in more than a month.

    US crude futures moved above $100 a barrel for the first time since May amid concerns over how long the conflict between the US and Iran could continue.

    The source cited a Wall Street Journal report saying US officials indicated that senior White House advisers had privately raised with President Donald Trump the possibility that the conflict could last through the remainder of his term.

    Trump said Wednesday that he expected the conflict to end immediately after the midterm elections.

    Treasury Yields Reach Nearly Three-Year High

    The increase in crude prices was accompanied by higher Treasury yields, with the benchmark US 10-year yield reaching its highest level in almost three years, according to the source.

    Investors were assessing the implications of higher oil prices and bond yields for the interest-rate outlook ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

    Several sectors recorded losses during Thursday’s session. The NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index declined 3%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.7%.

    The NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index dropped 2.3%, with housing, airline and biotechnology stocks also moving lower.

  • European Stocks Rise as Oil Prices Retreat and UK GDP Grows 0.4%: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European Stocks Rise as Oil Prices Retreat and UK GDP Grows 0.4%: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European equities moved mostly higher on Friday as oil prices declined from recent levels and data showed the UK economy expanded in July.

    Brent crude futures fell more than 3% to below $104 a barrel after the Financial Times reported that Iran and Oman were holding discussions with Gulf states regarding the reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    According to the report cited in the source, Gulf foreign ministers plan to meet their Iranian counterpart in Salalah, Oman, on Monday to discuss an arrangement for managing commercial shipping through the strait.

    UK Economy Expands in July

    UK gross domestic product increased 0.4% month on month in July, according to the Office for National Statistics, following growth of 0.3% in June and no growth in May.

    On an annual basis, GDP increased 1.6% in July, compared with forecasts of 1.2%.

    Germany’s DAX gained 0.5%, while France’s CAC 40 and the UK’s FTSE 100 both rose 0.6%.

    Alstom, Fraport and Trainline Rise

    Alstom (EU:ALO) shares advanced after the French train manufacturer signed contracts worth €1.2 billion with TransPennine Express.

    Fraport (TG:FRA) also moved higher. The transport company said approximately 6.3 million passengers travelled through Frankfurt Airport in August, representing a 0.3% decline from the corresponding month a year earlier.

    Trainline (LSE:TRN) shares also gained after the British rail ticketing platform announced a £100 million share repurchase programme to be conducted over 12 months.

    United Internet (TG:UTDI), meanwhile, declined after the German internet services company launched cost-saving programmes at subsidiaries 1&1 and Ionos that include job reductions.

  • Market Open: Trainline £100m Buyback, Berkeley £1.4bn Profit Target

    Market Open: Trainline £100m Buyback, Berkeley £1.4bn Profit Target

    UK markets open flat as Trainline unveils a £100m buyback and Berkeley holds its £1.4bn profit target. Brent crude eases, sterling firms.

    Market Overview

    UK and European markets opened broadly steady on Friday, with the FTSE 100 little changed at 10,608.95, having closed the previous session at 10,608.92. The Euronext 100 opened firmer at 1,888.44, up around 0.09 per cent, while Germany’s DAX advanced to 25,478.84, a rise of roughly 0.46 per cent, as stronger-than-expected UK GDP data helped offset lingering concerns over tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Wall Street had closed lower overnight, with the Nasdaq Composite down 0.65 per cent at 26,081.73 and the S&P 500 off 0.58 per cent at 7,591.70, as investors weighed the European Central Bank’s recent hawkish rate rise and awaited further signals on the path for US monetary policy.

    Elsewhere, commodity markets were mixed, with copper and gold firmer while Brent crude and natural gas eased back after a volatile run driven by Middle East supply concerns. Bitcoin slipped against sterling, reflecting a more cautious tone across risk assets. Sterling was broadly stable overnight, edging higher against the US dollar and the euro but softer against the Swiss franc, as traders continued to digest this week’s European Central Bank rate rise alongside signs of resilience in the UK economy. Overall sentiment remained cautious, with energy market volatility and central bank policy the dominant macro themes heading into the session.

    Market Numbers

    FTSE 100: Up (+0.00%), 10,608.95
    Euronext 100: Up (+0.09%), 1,888.44
    DAX: Up (+0.46%), 25,478.84
    NASDAQ: Down, 26,081.73
    S&P 500: Down, 7,591.70

    In the Headlines

    Buyback boost – Trainline plc (LSE:TRN)
    Trainline reported net ticket sales of £3.3 billion for the first half, broadly flat year-on-year, and announced a new £100 million share buyback alongside reaffirmed full-year guidance. The move underlines management confidence despite a modest decline in international ticket sales.

    Profit target held – Berkeley Group Holdings (LSE:BKG)
    Berkeley reaffirmed its target to deliver £1.4 billion of pre-tax profit over four years, though it said trading since May has been affected by the prolonged Middle East conflict and UK political uncertainty. The housebuilder is scaling back production by around a quarter over the period as buyer caution persists.

    Currencies (vs GBP)

    USD: Up (+0.01%), $1.351
    CHF: Down (-0.01%), Fr.1.0985
    EUR: Up (+0.00%), €1.1636
    JPY: Down (-0.00%), ¥208.6855
    AUD: Up (+0.00%), $1.8878
    Bitcoin (BTC/GBP): Down, £57,202.93

    Commodities

    Copper: Up
    Gold: Up
    Brent Crude: Down
    Natural Gas: Down

  • US Futures Gain Ahead of Inflation Report as Oracle and Adobe Release Earnings: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street

    US Futures Gain Ahead of Inflation Report as Oracle and Adobe Release Earnings: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street

    US equity futures traded higher on Friday as markets awaited August consumer inflation figures that could influence expectations ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting.

    At 02:57 ET (06:57 GMT), Dow futures rose 232 points, or 0.5%, while S&P 500 futures increased 33 points, or 0.4%. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 120 points, also representing a 0.4% gain.

    The moves followed a fourth consecutive decline for the S&P 500 on Thursday. Deutsche Bank analysts pointed to pressure in government bond markets, describing the session as “another terrible day for bonds.”

    The US 10-year Treasury yield continued moving towards 5% as investors considered whether higher oil prices could contribute to inflation and affect the interest-rate outlook. The European Central Bank raised borrowing costs on Thursday, while money markets were pricing in further increases over the next year.

    “The combination of higher energy prices and a hawkish ECB put fresh pressure on sovereign bonds across the board,” Deutsche Bank analysts said.

    August US Inflation Report Awaited

    Economists expect headline US consumer prices to have increased 0.4% in August from July, accelerating from the previous monthly rise of 0.1%. Annual inflation is forecast to remain at 3.4%.

    Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to rise 0.2% month on month and 2.4% from a year earlier. The corresponding July figures were 0.2% and 2.5%.

    The report comes ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting next week. Thursday’s data also showed faster increases in several price components used in the personal consumption expenditures price index, another measure of inflation monitored by the Fed.

    Brent Trades Above $100 Amid Middle East Developments

    Brent crude futures declined on Friday but remained above $100 per barrel as investors continued to monitor shipping conditions in the Middle East.

    “Once again, it is geopolitical fears driving everything,” Deutsche Bank analysts said.

    Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen captured a port city on Thursday, adding to concerns about shipping around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

    Shipping data cited by Reuters showed seven vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, compared with a 10-day moving average of 15.

    Brent subsequently moved lower after the Financial Times reported that Gulf foreign ministers and Iranian authorities were discussing a temporary arrangement concerning shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Oracle Reports More Than $30 Billion in New AI Cloud Contracts

    Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) reported quarterly earnings and revenue above analyst forecasts and raised its full-year profit guidance.

    The company, which operates cloud infrastructure alongside its database software and enterprise applications businesses, reported further contracting activity related to artificial intelligence.

    “Customer demand for AI Cloud Training and Inferencing Services continues to grow faster than supply,” Oracle said in a statement.

    Oracle recorded more than $30 billion of additional AI cloud contracts during the quarter. Remaining performance obligations increased to $664 billion.

    The company said most of the revenue covered by the new contracts would not require substantial semiconductor expenditure and maintained its annual spending target of $90 billion to $95 billion.

    Oracle shares rose in extended-hours trading after the results.

    Adobe Q3 Revenue Reaches $6.76 Billion

    Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $6.13 per share, compared with an analyst consensus of $6.07.

    Quarterly revenue was $6.76 billion, above the $6.69 billion consensus estimate.

    Adobe forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $6.80 billion to $6.85 billion. The midpoint of $6.825 billion compares with an analyst consensus of $6.85 billion.

    The company expects fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $6.30 to $6.35 per share. Adobe shares declined in extended-hours trading following the results.

  • Funding Circle: Strong First-Half Growth Highlights the Power of Profitable Expansion

    Funding Circle: Strong First-Half Growth Highlights the Power of Profitable Expansion

    For small businesses, access to fast and flexible finance can be critical to managing cash flow, investing for growth and navigating changing economic conditions. For lenders, however, growth only tells part of the story. The real measure of progress is whether that growth can be delivered profitably.

    For Funding Circle, the first half of 2026 provided plenty of evidence that its strategy is gaining momentum.

    Speaking on ADVFN’s Watch List, Tony Nicol, CFO of Funding Circle (LSE:FCH), outlined a period of strong financial and operational progress, with the company delivering significant increases in credit extended, revenue and profitability while continuing to scale its newer financial products.

    Revenue up 50% as profitability accelerates

    Funding Circle extended £1.7 billion of credit during the first half, representing growth of 52% year-on-year. Revenue increased by 50% to £138 million, while profit before tax rose four-fold to £24 million.

    A key contributor was the company’s established term-loans business, where originations increased 43% to just over £1 billion.

    Importantly, this growth is translating into stronger profitability. Term loans generated £29 million of profit during the period, compared with £13 million a year earlier, while margins increased to 26%.

    For investors, this combination of higher volumes, rising revenue and improving margins is particularly encouraging because it demonstrates the operating leverage within the Funding Circle model.

    As Nicol explained, the performance has been supported by strong customer demand, pent-up demand entering the year and the contribution from newer products launched during the previous year.

    The strength of the first-half performance has also given management greater confidence in the outlook. Funding Circle has upgraded its full-year guidance, moving from revenue of more than £235 million and profit of more than £35 million to revenue of more than £255 million and profit of more than £40 million.

    That represents a meaningful improvement in expectations and provides a clear indication of the momentum currently running through the business.

    New products broaden the opportunity

    While the performance of the core term-loans business remains important, perhaps one of the more interesting aspects of Funding Circle’s development is the progress being made by its newer products, including FlexiPay and its credit card offering.

    Transactions across these products increased 71% to £640 million, while revenue rose an impressive 83% to £30 million.

    The numbers suggest these products are increasingly becoming an important part of the wider Funding Circle proposition, helping the company address more of the day-to-day working-capital and cash-flow requirements of small businesses.

    That gives Funding Circle the opportunity to move beyond a traditional lending relationship and become a more regular financial partner for its customers.

    Recurring customer usage provides an attractive model

    One of the most compelling elements of the FlexiPay opportunity is the recurring nature of customer usage.

    Nicol highlighted that more than 90% of the revenue generated in the first half came from customers who had been onboarded in previous years.

    That is an important characteristic of the model. Rather than continually relying on new customer acquisition to drive revenue, Funding Circle can build value from relationships that have already been established.

    The company describes this as a “J-curve” economics model, where marketing and credit costs are incurred upfront, while the benefits of repeat customer usage develop over time.

    Assets under management for the newer products reached £300 million, up from £206 million at the beginning of the year.

    Perhaps even more importantly, Nicol said the business would already be profitable at around £10-12 million if it stopped growing today, while the earlier customer cohorts are already cash generative.

    That provides an encouraging foundation from which to continue investing in future growth.

    From recovery to profitable growth

    Taken together, the first-half numbers point towards a Funding Circle business that has moved well beyond simply pursuing top-line expansion.

    The company is growing credit volumes, increasing revenue, expanding margins and delivering substantially higher profitability, while simultaneously developing newer products that could broaden its relationship with small-business customers.

    The progress of FlexiPay and the credit card offering could prove particularly significant over the longer term. Their recurring usage characteristics create the potential for customer relationships to become increasingly valuable as they mature.

    With full-year revenue guidance now above £255 million and profit guidance above £40 million, Funding Circle enters the second half of the year with increased confidence and a growing platform from which to build.

    For small businesses looking for flexible access to finance, the opportunity is clear. For Funding Circle, the first-half performance suggests the company is increasingly demonstrating that growth and profitability can go hand in hand.

    For more information visit –   https://corporate.fundingcircle.com

  • FTSE 100 Flat as UK GDP Growth Offsets Strait of Hormuz Concerns

    FTSE 100 Flat as UK GDP Growth Offsets Strait of Hormuz Concerns

    The FTSE 100 was little changed on Friday as stronger-than-expected UK economic growth data was balanced by continued concerns over disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

    The FTSE 100 was down 0.03% at 03:25 ET (07:25 GMT). Elsewhere in Europe, Germany’s DAX gained 0.28% and France’s CAC 40 rose 0.55%. Sterling was 0.09% higher against the US dollar at $1.3524.

    UK gross domestic product increased 0.4% in July, exceeding expectations and extending growth recorded during the first half of the year, according to the Office for National Statistics. The economy expanded 1.6% from a year earlier, the fastest annual rate since February 2025.

    “Ongoing strength in the services sector was only partially offset by falls in both production and construction,” ONS Director of Economic Statistics Liz McKeown said, adding that artificial intelligence appeared to be supporting software development.

    Geopolitical developments remained in focus after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps said its navy had struck a US “Saildrone-type” unmanned vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, claiming it had “thwarted its aggressive mission.”

    The statement followed a resolution by the International Atomic Energy Agency accusing Iran of “noncompliance” with its nuclear non-proliferation commitments and referring the issue to the UN Security Council. Iran’s UN envoy, Gholamhossein Darzi, described the accusations as “political and not technical in nature.”

    Preliminary ship-tracking data showed seven vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, compared with 11 a day earlier and a 10-day average of 15, according to Reuters.

    Analysts at ING said oil’s performance “reflects a market now repricing both the duration and severity of the conflict, along with a clearer recognition of the mounting threat to regional supply.” They also cited risks to Saudi energy infrastructure and Red Sea crude exports as Houthi forces target Saudi Arabia following their seizure of the Yemeni port of Mokha.

    Brent crude declined 2.12% to $105.35 a barrel, while WTI fell 1.76% to $100.69. Gold futures were down 0.38% at $4,390.25, while spot gold rose 0.76% to $4,349.24.

    UK Round-Up

    Berkeley Group (LSE:BKG) said buyer caution and UK political uncertainty were affecting housing demand while calling for changes to stamp duty and planning regulations. The housebuilder has maintained its target of £1.4 billion in pre-tax profit over four years.

    Trainline (LSE:TRN) reported first-half net ticket sales of £3.3 billion and underlying revenue of £233 million. The company reaffirmed its FY2027 guidance and announced a new £100 million share buyback programme.

  • KEFI Reviews Tulu Kapi Development Plans Following Security Incident

    KEFI Reviews Tulu Kapi Development Plans Following Security Incident

    KEFI Gold and Copper (LSE:KEFI) said all employees affected by the recent security incident at its Tulu Kapi Gold Project in Ethiopia have been accounted for, with no additional fatalities or injuries reported following the death of one colleague.

    Senior management travelled to Ethiopia following the incident and held discussions with community representatives as well as national and regional authorities. The company said those consultations included reaffirmed support for the project and its role in the local economy.

    KEFI is working with lead contractor Lycopodium and local contractors to review and refine development plans for Tulu Kapi. The company said it is taking a cautious approach to restarting activities at the site.

    Development work will resume only after the investigation into the incident has been completed and the company is satisfied that a safe operating environment is in place.

    KEFI also reported renewed and increased interest from Ethiopian institutions and family offices in providing financing through redeemable preference shares at the subsidiary level. The proposed structure would be non-dilutive at the KEFI shareholder level.

    More about KEFI Gold and Copper plc

    KEFI Gold and Copper plc is a mineral exploration and development company focused on gold and copper projects in the Arabian-Nubian Shield.

    Its portfolio includes the Tulu Kapi Gold Project in Ethiopia as well as mineral projects in Saudi Arabia.

  • Supermarket Income REIT Acquires Six UK Grocery Assets for £104 Million

    Supermarket Income REIT Acquires Six UK Grocery Assets for £104 Million

    Supermarket Income REIT plc (LSE:SUPR) has acquired six grocery-related properties in the UK for a total of £104 million, completing the deployment of proceeds from its £100 million equity raise in July 2026.

    The acquired portfolio comprises supermarkets, an M&S-anchored retail park, a Co-op store, an M&S scheme in Glasgow and a Sainsbury’s grocery distribution centre.

    The properties include triple-net leases and a combination of inflation-linked and open-market rent reviews. Several of the assets also support click-and-collect and home-delivery operations.

    The latest transaction follows the previously announced acquisition of three supermarkets for £118 million.

    Across the two transactions, Supermarket Income REIT said it has now fully deployed the £100 million of equity raised in July. The acquisitions were completed at an average net initial yield of 6.6% and have a weighted average unexpired lease term of 10 years.

    The company said the transactions are consistent with its strategy of expanding its portfolio beyond traditional UK supermarkets to include grocery distribution facilities and grocery-anchored retail properties.

    More about Supermarket Income REIT Plc

    Supermarket Income REIT plc is a FTSE 250 real estate investment trust focused on grocery properties in the UK and Europe.

    Its portfolio includes omnichannel supermarkets, grocery-anchored retail properties and distribution facilities leased to supermarket operators. The portfolio was valued at £2.1 billion as of 31 December 2025.

    The company’s shares trade on the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market and the Main Board of the JSE Limited in South Africa.

  • Berkeley Reaffirms £1.4 Billion Profit Target as Trading Remains Subdued

    Berkeley Reaffirms £1.4 Billion Profit Target as Trading Remains Subdued

    Berkeley Group Holdings (LSE:BKG) reaffirmed its target of £1.4 billion in pre-tax profit over four years, while telling shareholders at its Annual General Meeting that trading since May has been affected by the prolonged Middle East conflict and UK political uncertainty.

    The company said enquiry levels have remained stable, although prospective buyers continue to exercise caution. Berkeley is re-phasing its strategy and plans to reduce production by approximately 25% over four years, with an increased focus on cash generation.

    For the current financial year, the group expects earnings to be slightly weighted towards the first half.

    Berkeley returned £60 million to shareholders through share buybacks during the first four months of the financial year. The company said it is ahead of the required run rate for its target of returning £640 million to shareholders by 2030.

    The housebuilder expects to have approximately £250 million of net cash at the half-year point.

    Berkeley also called on the UK government to introduce targeted stamp duty reductions for first-time buyers, downsizers and investors. The company additionally advocated consistent implementation of planning reforms in London, saying these measures would support increased housing delivery.

    More about The Berkeley Group Holdings

    The Berkeley Group Holdings plc is a UK housebuilder focused primarily on residential development in London and the South East.

    The company develops private homes, build-to-rent properties and affordable housing, with a significant portion of its activities involving large-scale brownfield regeneration projects.