European beverage stocks moved lower after US President Donald Trump said he plans to introduce new tariffs on imports from the European Union and the United Kingdom, reviving trade tensions and increasing pressure on spirits producers with significant exposure to the US market.
Shares in Diageo (LSE:DGE), Pernod Ricard (EU:RI), Rémy Cointreau (EU:RCO) and Davide Campari (BIT:CPR) were down between 1% and 3.5% by 09:15 GMT.
Over the weekend, Trump said the US would introduce fresh tariffs starting at 10% from 1 February on imports from the UK and seven EU countries — Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. The proposed rate would then rise to 25% from 1 June.
These measures would add to an existing tariff framework that already includes a 15% duty on European imports and a 10% levy on goods from Great Britain. Jefferies said the proposed increases would be layered on top of current tariffs, materially raising the cost burden for European spirits companies selling into the US.
European governments have criticised the proposal and are holding emergency discussions at EU level, with reports suggesting potential counter-tariffs of up to €93 billion, according to the brokerage.
Jefferies said the renewed tariff threat reopens a US–EU trade dispute and represents a near-term risk event for spirits makers. The analysts estimate that an additional 10% tariff would have a measurable earnings impact before any mitigation measures are taken.
Based on company disclosures, Jefferies estimates the impact of a 10% tariff would equate to roughly 1% of group earnings for Pernod Ricard, 2.6% for Diageo, 3.9% for Campari and 12.1% for Rémy Cointreau. If tariffs were raised to 25%, the impact would deepen to around 2.4%, 6.5%, 9.7% and 30.3% respectively.
The analysts highlighted Rémy Cointreau as the most exposed, with an estimated €30 million US tariff impact equivalent to around 18% of profits under the current regime. Pernod Ricard’s estimated €35 million drag represents about 1.5% of fiscal 2026 EBIT, while Campari’s €15 million impact — gross annualised at €35 million — equates to roughly 2.5% of group profits. Diageo has previously flagged around $200 million of gross exposure, with the ability to offset roughly half through mitigating actions, Jefferies said.
Jefferies added that the tariff threat is likely to fuel volatility in European spirits stocks in the coming weeks as investors weigh potential earnings impacts and monitor developments in US–EU trade negotiations.
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