Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) appears to be heading for another positive month in Europe, with early registration figures indicating strong growth in several countries including France and Denmark.
The electric vehicle maker delivered 17,664 vehicles in February, representing 11.8% year-on-year growth, and the first data released for March across Europe suggest that the company’s sales recovery is continuing. The improvement follows a difficult period last year when Tesla lost nearly half of its European market share amid rising competition and controversy linked to the political stance of CEO Elon Musk.
Preliminary figures published today show registrations in France jumping 203.1% compared with the same period in 2025, marking the company’s first month of growth since October. Tesla registered 9,569 vehicles, narrowly below its all-time monthly record of 9,572 units set in December 2023.
In Denmark, registrations climbed 144% to 1,447 vehicles, according to data from bilstatistik.dk. In Sweden, registrations increased 96% to 1,784 vehicles, based on figures released by Mobility Sweden.
Registration data for Italy, Spain, Norway, Portugal and the Netherlands are expected later today.
Deliveries remain Tesla’s key metric
Despite growing attention on Elon Musk’s push into artificial intelligence, robotaxis and humanoid robotics, vehicle deliveries remain the core measure of Tesla’s performance.
Analysts’ consensus estimates suggest the company will deliver around 365,645 vehicles in the first quarter of 2026. That would represent an increase from the 336,681 units delivered in the same quarter last year, when production was temporarily disrupted by Model Y factory retooling. However, it would still fall short of the 418,227 vehicles delivered in the fourth quarter, implying year-over-year growth of roughly 8–9%.
At the same time, the forecast implies a sequential decline of about 12.5–13% compared with the previous quarter. Such fluctuations are common in the automotive industry due to seasonal demand, though they have also been amplified by stronger competition and softer demand in major markets including China, the United States and Europe.
Most of the expected deliveries will likely come from Tesla’s core models. Analysts project 351,179 units of the Model 3 and Model Y, reflecting continued consumer preference for these vehicles.
Long-term delivery targets
Looking further ahead, Tesla is projected to deliver 1,689,691 vehicles in 2026, representing 3.3% growth compared with the previous year. This projection is part of Tesla’s broader strategy to expand annual deliveries to 3.032 million vehicles by 2030.
Reaching that goal will require significant expansion of manufacturing capacity, the launch of additional models and continued expansion into new markets.
The company’s first-quarter delivery results will therefore be closely watched as an indicator of Tesla’s ability to sustain growth in an increasingly competitive electric vehicle market.
Energy division becoming more important
Tesla’s diversification strategy, particularly in energy generation and storage, could become an increasingly important driver of future growth.
With 14.4 GWh of energy storage installations recorded in the first quarter of 2026, Tesla continues to expand beyond its automotive business. Industry projections suggest installations could reach up to 65.2 GWh annually, positioning Tesla as both a car manufacturer and a major energy technology company.
This segment could help offset potential slowdowns in vehicle sales.
Competitive pressure intensifies
Nevertheless, Tesla continues to face significant challenges. Demand in several major markets remains uncertain, while competition—particularly from Chinese automakers such as BYD—is intensifying.
Investor caution is reflected in Tesla’s share price, which has fallen about 20% since the beginning of the year. Markets will closely monitor the company’s official delivery figures, scheduled for release on April 2, 2026, to gauge Tesla’s progress toward its growth targets.
Analysts warn of possible delivery declines
Although Tesla’s European registrations rose in February—marking the first annual increase since December 2024—rival BYD expanded even faster, more than doubling its registrations and nearly matching Tesla’s 1.8% market share. Volkswagen and Stellantis also reported higher sales, according to Reuters.
“I’m seeing a decline,” Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein told Reuters, referring to Tesla’s major markets and warning that deliveries could weaken further this year.
According to Sam Fiorani of AutoForecast Solutions, recent updates to the Model 3 and Model Y have not been significant enough to attract buyers away from newer and cheaper competitors.
Tesla shifts attention beyond vehicle deliveries
Tesla has increasingly attempted to shift investor focus away from delivery numbers. In January, the company said production of its Cybercab robotaxi remains on schedule for this year and announced a $2 billion investment in Musk’s AI startup xAI.
Meanwhile, Tesla’s energy generation and storage business reported record revenue of $3.84 billion in the fourth quarter, representing 25.5% growth.
“Tesla is entering a transition phase,” Investing.com analyst Thomas Monteiro told Reuters, noting that investors are increasingly focused on future product launches rather than traditional delivery figures.
Concerns over cash usage
If deliveries fall short of expectations or if Tesla introduces further price cuts to support demand, investors may begin focusing more closely on the company’s cash burn.
According to Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, Tesla could burn through more than $8 billion in 2026, Reuters reported. This comes despite the company finishing 2025 with $44.06 billion in cash, cash equivalents and investments.
Robotaxi timeline still uncertain
Tesla’s plans for a robotaxi service also remain uncertain. In February, Reuters reported that Tesla had not logged a single test mile with autonomous vehicles in California in 2025 and had not yet applied for permits required to operate a commercial driverless ride-hailing service.
By comparison, Waymo, Alphabet’s autonomous vehicle unit, completed more than 13 million test miles before receiving approval to charge passengers for fully driverless rides.
Investors focused on delivery trends
For now, investors appear relatively calm as long as Tesla’s vehicle sales do not deteriorate significantly.
Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management summarized the current sentiment when he told Reuters: “Zero growth would be a ‘win’ for Tesla.”
However, he warned that a sharper decline in deliveries would quickly change the outlook, adding: “that would be a problem.”
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