TotalEnergies SE (EU:TTE) said it anticipates a solid uplift in first-quarter earnings, supported by higher oil and gas prices and robust trading activity, even as ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to affect production levels.
The company’s U.S.-listed shares rose around 3% in premarket trading.
Output for the quarter is expected to remain broadly stable compared with the previous period, at approximately 2.55 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. New project startups, including developments in Libya and Brazil, are helping offset around 100,000 barrels per day of lost production linked to the conflict, which has disrupted operations in Qatar, Iraq, and offshore UAE. A refinery complex in Saudi Arabia was also recently shut following damage.
Despite these challenges, the group expects a notable increase in earnings from its exploration and production segment, with stronger hydrocarbon prices contributing an estimated $2 billion to $2.5 billion to working capital during the quarter.
Liquefied natural gas performance is also set to improve significantly compared with the fourth quarter, driven by around 10% growth in output and strong trading conditions amid heightened market volatility.
Refining margins in Europe remained firm at $11.40 per ton, comfortably above market expectations, with utilization rates exceeding 90%.
Results from the Integrated Power segment are projected at about $500 million, broadly unchanged year on year, while Marketing and Services are also expected to perform in line with the previous year.
Mark Wilson of Jefferies described the update as a “small positive,” noting that TotalEnergies appears to be managing working capital pressures more effectively than some peers, including Shell and BP.
The analyst added that first-quarter net income could come in roughly 10% above consensus forecasts of €4.8 billion, with LNG trading likely to be the main driver of upside.
TotalEnergies is scheduled to report its full first-quarter results on April 29.
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