U.S. equity futures moved higher after President Donald Trump announced an extension of the Iran ceasefire just ahead of its deadline. However, ongoing disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continue to keep oil prices elevated, while rising fuel expenses are weighing on airline profitability, including United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL).
Futures move higher
U.S. stock futures pointed to gains early Wednesday as investors balanced the ceasefire extension with persistent risks in global energy supply.
As of 03:36 ET, Dow futures were up 285 points, or 0.6%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.8%.
Trump’s announcement came after Tuesday’s market close. Earlier in the session, Wall Street indices had ended lower as uncertainty lingered over renewed negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Despite geopolitical tensions, corporate earnings have remained a “bright spot” for equities, analysts at Vital Knowledge said, noting that most companies have “either beat-and-reiterate or beat-and-raise.” U.S. retail sales for March also exceeded expectations, though largely due to an energy-driven surge in gasoline purchases linked to the Iran situation.
Investors are closely tracking earnings releases and macro data to gauge the broader economic impact of the conflict. At the same time, some analysts suggest that markets, now trading near pre-conflict levels, may be signalling that the worst of the geopolitical stress has passed.
Ceasefire extension
In a social media post after markets closed on Tuesday, Trump said the ceasefire agreement with Iran had been extended just hours before it was due to lapse.
He stated that the move followed a request from Pakistan, which often acts as an intermediary between the U.S. and Iran, adding that the truce would remain in place “until such time as” Iranian officials present a “unified proposal” for peace.
The extension was announced unilaterally, leaving uncertainty over the positions of both Iran and Israel.
Plans for U.S. Vice President JD Vance to travel to Pakistan for further talks were also paused after Iranian state media said its delegation viewed the negotiations as a “waste of time because the U.S. prevents reaching any suitable agreement.”
Oil volatility persists
Meanwhile, the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in effect, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still heavily restricted.
Disruptions in this key passageway—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply flows—have raised concerns about a potential spike in energy-driven inflation that could prompt central banks to tighten policy further.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, edged higher to around $98.95 per barrel, staying well above levels seen before the conflict. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4% to $89.99 per barrel.
“Sentiment benefits from another extension of a Trump-imposed deadline on Iran, but high oil prices suggest markets seek more concrete steps forward,” said Michiel Tukker.
Focus on Fed independence
Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve chair, emphasised during his Senate confirmation hearing that, if appointed, he would ensure monetary policy remains “strictly independent.”
When asked whether Trump had conditioned the role on a commitment to cut rates, Warsh said the president “never asks” him to “predetermine” or “fix” any rate decisions.
Analysts at ING noted that markets had expected limited volatility around the hearing, and that Warsh struck a balance—defending Fed independence while remaining non-committal on policy—thereby avoiding any significant impact on rate expectations or Treasury markets.
The hearing comes amid renewed scrutiny over the Fed’s autonomy. Trump recently said he would be “disappointed” if the next Fed chair does not lower rates and has repeatedly clashed with current chair Jerome Powell over monetary policy.
Powell, in a January statement, said a Justice Department probe into a Fed renovation project and the “threat of criminal charges” were a “consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.”
United Airlines in focus
Shares of United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) edged higher in premarket trading, as relief over the ceasefire extension helped offset disappointment over weaker profit guidance for the second quarter and full year.
According to analysts cited by Reuters, the softer outlook largely reflects higher fuel costs, while underlying performance—excluding these pressures—remains broadly in line with expectations.
Rising jet fuel prices tied to the conflict are squeezing margins across the airline industry, even as travel demand remains resilient.
Peers are also under pressure: Delta Air Lines has scaled back growth plans, Alaska Air has withdrawn its full-year outlook, and low-cost carriers such as Spirit Airlines are facing heightened strain.
Earnings ahead
Investors are also preparing for a fresh batch of corporate results due later Wednesday, including updates from Boeing, Philip Morris International, and AT&T.
After the closing bell, attention will turn to results from Tesla, led by CEO Elon Musk, which are expected to be a key focal point for markets.
Leave a Reply