JPMorgan lowered its 2026 gold price forecasts as short-term demand momentum weakened, although the bank maintained its broader bullish stance and continues to expect gold prices to approach $6,000 per troy ounce by year-end.
The Wall Street bank reduced its average 2026 gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from $5,708 previously, citing softer investor interest and lighter positioning across the market.
Gold is currently trading between its 200-day moving average near $4,340 per ounce and the 50-day moving average around $4,730 per ounce, while futures positioning and ETF inflows remain subdued.
“Gold is on the back burner for most investors at the moment,” analysts led by Gregory Shearer wrote, noting that concerns over possible Federal Reserve rate hikes in response to energy-related inflation pressures are weighing on short-term sentiment.
Even so, JPMorgan said the recent pullback should be viewed as a temporary pause rather than a lasting shift in trend. The bank said its bullish long-term thesis — driven by fiscal concerns, currency debasement risks, geopolitical fragmentation and uncertainty around U.S. policy — remains intact, but is “on hold until more clarity arrives around a resolution of the Iran conflict.”
A major catalyst the bank is monitoring is the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which JPMorgan’s energy analysts expect could happen in June. Analysts believe that outcome would ease inflation fears and help reverse recent gains in the U.S. dollar and real yields, allowing gold to recover toward resistance levels between $4,900 and $5,100 per ounce.
The bank also expects investors who previously reduced gold exposure to gradually return during the second half of the year, supporting renewed demand momentum.
JPMorgan lowered its estimate for central bank gold purchases in 2026 to 640 tonnes from 800 tonnes after officially reported net purchases slowed to 16 tonnes in the first quarter amid increased selling activity. Including unreported buying, however, total central bank demand still reached 244 tonnes during the quarter, according to estimates from the World Gold Council and Metals Focus.
The bank also cut its forecast for ETF inflows this year to roughly 400 tonnes from 580 tonnes previously, though it noted that global gold ETF holdings remain 108 tonnes higher year-to-date.
Analysts warned that the biggest threat to the outlook would be a scenario in which strong U.S. employment data and accelerating inflation force the Federal Reserve into an extended tightening cycle, potentially leading to sustained outflows from Western gold ETFs.
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