Standard Chartered believes the worst of the current cryptocurrency downturn may already be over, arguing that Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) established its cycle low when it briefly fell to $59,000, representing a 53% drop from its $126,000 peak.
According to Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, several near-term developments could help validate the view that the market is beginning a new recovery phase.
U.S.-Iran Developments and SpaceX Debut Could Shift Sentiment
Writing on Friday, Kendrick highlighted a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran as one of the most important macroeconomic factors for crypto markets.
Should negotiations succeed, the agreement “may sound the end to higher oil prices and therefore higher UST yields,” he said.
The analyst also cited the IPO of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) as another potentially significant catalyst.
Kendrick suggested that many Bitcoin ETF investors have recently been selling positions to raise funds ahead of the landmark public offering, contributing to unusually large ETF outflows.
Those withdrawals have ranked among the biggest since spot Bitcoin ETFs were introduced.
Key Signals to Watch Next Week
Kendrick said several indicators would help confirm that Bitcoin has successfully established a bottom.
Among them are fresh Bitcoin purchases by Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), a return to positive ETF flows, and further declines in crude oil prices.
“Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring,” he wrote.
Forecast for Bitcoin at $100,000 Remains Unchanged
The latest comments are consistent with Kendrick’s bullish outlook issued earlier this month.
At that time, he maintained his prediction that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 before the end of 2026.
“When we look back at the end of 2026 with bitcoin at $100k we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted,” he said.
Institutional Selling Still Weighs on Prices
Despite signs of stabilization, Bitcoin remains under pressure.
The digital asset has fallen by more than 50% since reaching its October high, even as the Trump administration has implemented a number of policies viewed as supportive of the cryptocurrency industry.
Bitcoin gained 0.9% on Friday to trade at $63,337.8 and was heading for a small weekly advance.
Nevertheless, that gain came after a sharp 17% decline during the previous week.
While confidence may be starting to improve, Bitcoin continues to hover near annual lows amid ongoing institutional selling through spot Bitcoin ETFs.
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