Oil prices rise as Iran-US deadlock keeps supply risks in focus

Crude gains amid diplomatic uncertainty

Oil prices moved higher on Wednesday as investors weighed the possibility that stalled negotiations between Iran and the United States could delay a lasting peace agreement and prolong uncertainty over energy supplies from the Middle East.

Brent crude added 14 cents, or 0.19%, to $73.09 a barrel by 06:44 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 11 cents, or 0.16%, to $69.61 a barrel.

Hormuz developments remain crucial

Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, said conditions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to improve but remain inconsistent.

“Hormuz continues to reopen but it’s patchy, unpredictable, and not fully transparent,” she said.

“Unless there is a fresh understanding between Washington and Tehran, the market may wait and watch for sustained peace and quiet before crude resumes bearish momentum.”

Diplomatic efforts continued in Doha after White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, son-in-law of US President Donald Trump, arrived for what officials described as “high level” discussions.

However, Iran and Qatar confirmed that Iranian representatives would only meet with international mediators rather than directly with US officials.

Oil market watches inventories and supply outlook

The oil market continues to recover after a volatile second quarter, when Brent recorded its steepest quarterly decline since 2008 and WTI posted its largest quarterly loss since 2020.

A Reuters survey showed analysts lowered their 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the Iran conflict began, reflecting improving shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz.

US Vice President JD Vance also sought to reassure markets, saying Iran would not be allowed to impose charges on ships using the strategic waterway.

“This is not going to end in a place where the Iranians are collecting tolls on ships going through the Strait of Hormuz,” Vance said.

Meanwhile, industry data indicated US crude inventories declined by 6.1 million barrels last week, while gasoline inventories also fell. Investors are now awaiting official inventory figures from the Energy Information Administration.