Bernstein has updated its forecast for copper prices, projecting an average of $12,419 per metric ton in 2026. The research house expects prices to average $11,750 per ton during the second half of the year, slightly below the broader market consensus of $12,515 per ton.
Structural Supply Tightness Supports Long-Term View
Looking beyond next year, Bernstein expects copper to average approximately $10,700 per metric ton by 2030 as structural supply shortages become more pronounced toward the end of the decade.
The firm believes that tightening mine supply will increasingly outweigh demand growth, creating a more supportive backdrop for copper prices over the longer term.
Federal Reserve and Dollar Remain Key Headwinds
Bernstein said copper continues to face pressure from a challenging macroeconomic environment. Higher energy costs resulting from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East have weakened industrial sentiment, while the stronger U.S. dollar and expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve have reduced appetite across commodity markets.
These macroeconomic factors continue to weigh on price performance despite improving supply fundamentals.
Physical Copper Market Becoming Tighter
On the supply side, Bernstein pointed to lower production guidance from several mining companies and continued inventory accumulation in the United States as factors tightening the physical copper market.
According to the firm, its revised forecast reflects the balance between near-term pressures from monetary policy and currency movements and increasingly constrained physical supply, which should continue to underpin copper prices.
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