Oil Extends Rally as U.S.-Iran Impasse Keeps Hormuz Risks in Focus

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Oil prices moved higher for a fourth straight session on Wednesday, with the continuing confrontation between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz fuelling expectations that global crude supplies could remain under pressure.

Brent crude futures advanced 0.3% to $91.32 per barrel by 04:43 ET (08:43 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 0.4% to $85.28 per barrel. Both benchmarks have risen strongly this week and remain close to three-week highs.

The latest gains come as traders closely monitor shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, where uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict has reduced tanker movements through one of the world’s most strategically important energy corridors.

Shipping Activity Through Hormuz Slows

Data cited by Reuters showed that only six commodity vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, according to Kpler. That compared with nine vessels on Monday and a 10-day daily average of 11.

Analysts at ING said: “Reports of reduced vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have also raised concerns over potential oil supply disruptions.”

Any prolonged decline in shipping activity could have significant implications for global energy markets, particularly if exporters encounter increasing difficulty moving crude through the waterway.

Al Jazeera reported that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed Gulf security with United Arab Emirates National Security Adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, with both sides stressing the importance of preserving freedom of navigation through Hormuz.

U.S. and Iran Show Little Sign of Renewing Talks

Diplomatic tensions remain elevated after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that negotiations with Iran were neither underway nor scheduled. Trump nevertheless maintained that the Strait of Hormuz was open.

Tehran has also denied that talks with Washington are taking place but disputes the U.S. position on the waterway. Iran says the strait will remain closed until the United States complies with conditions contained in an interim agreement signed in June that has since expired.

The temporary framework lapsed this week, and neither government has indicated that it is prepared to renew the arrangement.

The continued diplomatic deadlock is keeping geopolitical risk firmly embedded in crude prices, with markets increasingly focused on whether reduced shipping activity could translate into tighter physical supplies.

API Data Points to Decline in U.S. Crude Stocks

Oil received another boost from American Petroleum Institute figures indicating that U.S. crude inventories declined modestly last week.

“The oil market also drew support from a slightly bullish API inventory report,” ING analysts said.

Attention now turns to official U.S. inventory figures due later on Wednesday. API data frequently provide an early indication of the direction of the government’s weekly stockpile report.

The apparent decline in commercial inventories comes as broader U.S. supply buffers are also attracting attention. Recent data showed the Strategic Petroleum Reserve falling to its lowest level in more than 40 years amid the Iran conflict.

With diplomatic negotiations stalled, tanker traffic through Hormuz reduced and U.S. inventories showing signs of tightening, oil prices remain highly exposed to further developments in the Persian Gulf.

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