Saudi Arabian oil exports could decline further if the country’s East-West pipeline remains offline, with industry sources estimating that available inventories at the Red Sea port of Yanbu could support current exports for another five to seven days.
The pipeline was shut on Friday following drone attacks and has been carrying around 4 million barrels of oil per day across the Arabian Peninsula to Yanbu. That volume is equivalent to approximately 4% of global oil supply.
The route has provided Saudi Arabia with an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz during the wartime disruption of shipping through the waterway.
Saudi authorities have not provided full details about the damage to the pipeline or indicated when operations are expected to resume.
One source cited by Reuters estimated that repairs could require five to six weeks. Another said the pipeline could return to service sooner, potentially operating at partial capacity while repair work continues.
Saudi Arabia Draws on Red Sea Oil Inventories
Three industry sources familiar with Saudi exports said Yanbu currently has enough oil in storage to sustain exports for around five to seven days.
Additional inventories are available at the Egyptian ports of Ain Sukhna on the Red Sea and Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean, according to a fourth source. Those stocks could provide supplies to customers for several additional days.
Industry estimates put Yanbu’s storage capacity at around 35 million barrels. Ain Sukhna can hold approximately 18 million barrels, while Sidi Kerir has capacity for around 20 million barrels.
However, the sources said the facilities are not currently full, meaning available inventories would eventually be exhausted without the resumption of pipeline flows.
Saudi Production Falls to 6.2 Million Barrels Per Day
Saudi oil supply had already declined before the latest pipeline disruption.
The International Energy Agency said Saudi supply fell to its lowest level in more than 30 years in August as flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea decreased.
Saudi Arabia told OPEC last week that production stood at 6.2 million barrels per day in August, compared with 10.9 million barrels per day in February before the war.
The IEA expects global oil supply to decline by 5.7 million barrels per day, or approximately 6%, this year.
Before the war, the Middle East supplied around 22 million barrels per day. Industry sources estimate that flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen to between 6 million and 9 million barrels per day.
Red Sea Developments Add to Export Constraints
Saudi Arabia had relied on the East-West pipeline during the previous six months to reduce its exposure to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
The pipeline transports crude across the country to Yanbu, allowing shipments to reach international markets through the Red Sea.
Separately, Houthi fighters in Yemen seized an island near the entrance to the Red Sea on Friday. The group has also threatened Saudi oil shipments.
With flows through the Strait of Hormuz already reduced, an extended shutdown of the East-West pipeline would further limit the routes available for Saudi oil exports.
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