Goldman Sachs has revised down its expectations for global smartphone shipments through 2028 while increasing its forecasts for the overall value of the market, reflecting expectations for higher average selling prices and a greater contribution from premium devices.
The bank now expects 1.1 billion smartphones to be shipped globally in 2026, followed by 1.2 billion units in both 2027 and 2028.
Compared with its previous estimates, Goldman reduced projected shipments by 1 million units in 2026, 8 million in 2027 and 0.2 million in 2028.
The forecasts correspond to a 10% year-on-year decline in shipments in 2026 and increases of 2% in each of the following two years. Goldman had previously forecast changes of negative 10% in 2026, positive 3% in 2027 and positive 1% in 2028.
Higher Prices Support Market Value Estimates
Despite its lower volume expectations, Goldman Sachs raised its projections for the value of smartphone sales.
The investment bank forecasts an 8% increase in global smartphone market value to $624 billion in 2026. It expects a further 5% increase to $655 billion in 2027 and growth of 3% to $674 billion in 2028.
The revised estimates incorporate Goldman’s expectations for higher average selling prices, including the effect of increased memory costs and greater demand for devices priced above $600.
As a result, the bank expects market value to increase even as smartphone shipment volumes decline in 2026 and subsequently record relatively limited growth.
Foldable Phone Penetration Still Expected to Increase
Goldman also revised down its projections for foldable smartphones while maintaining its expectation that the devices will account for a larger proportion of the overall market over time.
Foldable penetration is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, 5.7% in 2027 and 6.5% in 2028, compared with previous estimates of 3.6%, 5.9% and 6.8%.
That equates to projected foldable shipments of 35 million, 66 million and 77 million units across the three years. The forecasts are 14%, 4% and 5% below the bank’s previous estimates.
Goldman expects additional product launches from major smartphone manufacturers to contribute to the category’s expansion and included a potential foldable iPhone DUO in its assumptions.
The bank also expects the broader smartphone market to continue shifting towards premium devices, with new form factors and features contributing to its assumptions about higher average selling prices.
All figures represent Goldman Sachs estimates rather than achieved industry results and remain dependent on future demand, pricing and product developments.
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