National Grid upgrades earnings growth target to 10% through 2031

National Grid PLC (LSE:NG.) on Monday unveiled an updated five-year financial framework extending to fiscal 2031, increasing its forecast for underlying earnings per share growth to between 8% and 10% annually while confirming acceptance of the RIIO-T3 regulatory settlement for its UK electricity transmission operations.

The utility group plans to invest at least £70 billion cumulatively by fiscal 2031, marking a roughly 70% rise compared with capital spending over the previous five-year period.

The investment programme allocates around £31 billion to UK electricity transmission, £9 billion to UK electricity distribution, £17 billion to regulated activities in New York, £12 billion to regulated operations in New England, and £1 billion to National Grid Ventures. The company expects this spending to support average annual asset growth of about 10% across the group.

Shares gained 1.6% following the update. National Grid said trading for fiscal 2026 remains aligned with expectations, with analyst consensus currently at 78.3p per share.

For fiscal 2027, the company projected underlying EPS growth of 13–15%. At the midpoint of 89p, this represents roughly a 3% premium compared with market forecasts.

“Building on National Grid’s strong track record of delivery, we are expanding our record levels of investment to at least £70 billion by FY31, driving around 10% asset growth and an upgraded underlying EPS CAGR of between 8 and 10%,” said Chief Executive Zoë Yujnovich.

The revised earnings outlook represents an increase from the company’s previous framework, which targeted annual EPS growth of 6–8% through fiscal 2029. Based on the updated guidance, fiscal 2031 EPS is projected at 120.5p, around 10% above current analyst consensus estimates.

National Grid also confirmed it has agreed to Ofgem’s RIIO-T3 price control framework, which will govern its UK electricity transmission business from April 2026 through March 2031.

Over the regulatory period, the company expects to achieve an overall return on equity exceeding 9%.