U.S. stock futures moved higher on Thursday as investors followed developments around a potential new round of discussions between Washington and Tehran. Efforts are ongoing to prolong a temporary ceasefire and restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices edged up but stayed below the $100 per barrel level. Meanwhile, China reported better-than-expected first-quarter growth, and semiconductor leader TSMC (NYSE:TSM) posted record-breaking profits.
Futures point upward
Futures linked to major U.S. indices indicated a stronger open, supported by optimism over possible progress toward a lasting ceasefire in the Middle East, along with encouraging early signals from corporate earnings.
At 03:38 ET, Dow futures were up 56 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures gained 15 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 114 points, or 0.4%. Outside the U.S., Japan’s Nikkei reached a new all-time high, while European stocks traded modestly higher.
In the prior session, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at record levels, largely driven by hopes that the Iran conflict could soon de-escalate.
Executives from leading Wall Street banks also suggested the U.S. economy remains broadly resilient despite the energy shock tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments.
“[W]hile it’s still early in the [calendar first-quarter] reporting season, and the full fallout from the Iran war hasn’t been felt yet in the economy, we’ve been positively surprised by corporate results thus far, especially the ‘status quo’ messaging from bank CEOs,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note.
Additional earnings reports are expected later today, with PepsiCo scheduled before the opening bell and Netflix after market close.
Attention on Iran talks
Analysts noted that expectations for an extension of the current truce between the U.S. and Iran have become widely priced in, meaning further headlines around negotiations may have a reduced impact on markets.
Although no formal agreement has been reached, recent reports suggest diplomatic progress is being made.
Mediators continue working toward a more permanent ceasefire as the existing two-week truce nears its end. According to the Wall Street Journal, both sides have agreed in principle to resume talks after an initial round in Pakistan failed to produce a breakthrough, though no date or location has been set.
The WSJ also reported that Vice President JD Vance is expected to head the U.S. delegation in future discussions.
President Donald Trump has also indicated that talks between Israel and Lebanon are expected to take place today, with the Financial Times reporting that a ceasefire between the two parties could be reached “soon.”
Oil remains below $100
Tensions remain, particularly surrounding the ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. A senior Iranian military official has warned Washington against maintaining the blockade, while U.S. Central Command insists that no Iranian-linked vessels have managed to bypass it.
Other reports suggest that some ships and tankers have successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Reuters also indicated that Iran may allow vessels to pass through the Omani side of the strait without interference as part of a broader agreement.
Against this backdrop, oil prices moved slightly higher but stayed under $100 per barrel, still significantly above pre-conflict levels. On a weekly basis, however, crude has come under pressure, with gains limited by expectations of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
China growth exceeds expectations
China’s economy expanded more than forecast in the first quarter of 2026, supported by strong exports and a rebound in domestic consumption.
Gross domestic product rose 5% year on year, matching the upper end of the government’s annual target.
The data provided some support for expectations around oil demand in the world’s largest importer, although other indicators pointed to slowing momentum toward the end of the quarter.
China’s outlook remains uncertain, particularly given its reliance on crude imports from Iran.
TSMC posts record results
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) reported first-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, benefiting from continued strong demand driven by artificial intelligence.
The company posted net profit of T$572.48 billion ($18.15 billion) for the three months to March 31, beating Bloomberg estimates of T$542.38 billion and marking a 58.3% increase from a year earlier.
Revenue rose 35% to T$1.134 trillion during the quarter.
TSMC warned that disruptions to chemical and energy supplies linked to the Middle East conflict could weigh on margins, although it does not expect a material impact in the near term.
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