Precious metals pause after historic quarterly decline
Gold prices traded in a narrow range on Wednesday after posting their weakest quarterly performance in 13 years, as investors weighed persistent interest rate concerns ahead of comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
Market participants are hoping Warsh’s speech later in the day will provide additional insight into the outlook for U.S. inflation, monetary policy and future interest rate decisions.
The precious metal has struggled in recent weeks as stronger expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening boosted demand for the U.S. dollar. The currency has also benefited from confidence that the United States, as one of the world’s largest energy exporters, is less exposed to the economic fallout from the conflict involving Iran.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,023.23 an ounce by 08:08 ET (12:08 GMT), while gold futures held broadly steady at $4,036.95 an ounce. During early trading, spot prices briefly dipped below the psychologically important $4,000 level.
“Gold took another punch to the guts overnight […],” said David Morrison, Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation.
“The rebound in the U.S. dollar after a week-long consolidation didn’t help gold’s cause. And as things stand, it will take something quite big to take the wind out of the sails of the dollar’s rally.”
Hawkish Fed expectations weigh on bullion
Gold lost roughly 14% during the second quarter, marking its weakest quarterly showing since 2013.
Although prices initially weakened after fighting broke out between the United States, Israel and Iran, selling accelerated during June as inflation concerns resurfaced and investors adjusted to a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook.
Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting revealed growing support among policymakers for at least one additional interest rate increase this year. That marked a sharp departure from expectations earlier in 2026, when markets anticipated the beginning of an easing cycle.
Higher oil prices following the outbreak of the conflict—partly driven by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for global crude oil and liquefied natural gas—also reinforced inflation concerns. Since Washington and Tehran signed a temporary peace agreement last month, crude prices have retreated toward levels seen before the conflict.
Despite the decline in oil prices, CME FedWatch data continue to indicate that investors expect at least one Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end.
Higher borrowing costs generally reduce the attractiveness of gold because the metal does not generate interest income.
Silver and platinum post mixed moves
Performance across the broader precious metals complex remained mixed following steep quarterly losses.
Spot silver slipped 0.5% to $58.2900 per ounce, while spot platinum edged 0.2% higher to $1,556.49 per ounce.
Markets await Warsh’s debut on the global stage
Investors will also focus on Kevin Warsh’s appearance at the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal.
The event marks his first major public engagement since leading his inaugural Federal Reserve policy meeting in June.
Although Warsh is not expected to provide explicit guidance on future policy decisions after advocating for more limited central bank communication, investors will closely examine his remarks for clues about inflation, economic growth and the path of interest rates.
“[T]wo weeks ago, Mr Warsh made it clear that the Federal Reserve was focused on tackling inflation and driving it back down to the Fed’s 2% target. That looks likely to require a rate hike or two,” Morrison said.
Attention will also turn to the release of U.S. private-sector payroll figures later on Wednesday, ahead of Thursday’s closely watched June employment report.
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