Crude oil prices eased on Friday, but both major benchmarks remained on track to post their biggest weekly advances in months as escalating conflict in the Middle East continued to fuel concerns over global supply security.
Although prices retreated from Thursday’s sharp rally, traders remained focused on the risk of further disruptions to key shipping lanes and oil-export infrastructure.
Brent slips after breaking above $100
At 07:47 GMT, Brent crude futures were trading $1.82 lower, or 1.81%, at $98.87 per barrel after surging more than 7% in the previous session. Thursday’s rally briefly lifted Brent above $100 per barrel for the first time since May after Iran-backed Houthi forces claimed responsibility for attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea.
Even after Friday’s decline, Brent remained on course for a weekly gain of approximately 12%.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also moved lower, falling $1.60, or 1.74%, to $90.59 per barrel. The U.S. benchmark was still set to finish the week almost 10% higher.
Geopolitical risks continue to dominate trading
Concerns over the security of global oil supplies remain the primary driver of market sentiment.
“Major hubs of oil production or supply routes are surrounded by war,” said PVM Oil Associates analyst John Evans. “The short-term outlook is bullish.”
U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran and its Houthi allies that they would face “major military punishment” following attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
Reports indicate that Iran has encouraged the Houthis to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure continue. The waterway is one of the world’s most strategically important energy shipping routes after the Strait of Hormuz.
Earlier this week, the Houthis also announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, increasing fears of prolonged supply disruptions.
Tanker traffic and supply outlook remain key concerns
Shipping data from Kpler showed that only one tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, marking the lowest daily traffic since 7 May.
Analysts at JPMorgan estimate that each additional month of supply disruption could increase Brent prices by between $7 and $8 per barrel. If interruptions persist for three months, average monthly Brent prices could approach $114 per barrel.
Fresh supply risks emerge beyond the Middle East
Elsewhere, Russia reported overnight strikes against infrastructure at three Ukrainian ports, including fuel depots and cargo handling facilities.
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan said several oil producers temporarily reduced production after suspected Ukrainian drone attacks forced the closure of the country’s main Black Sea export terminal, adding another source of uncertainty to global energy markets.
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