Europe is expected to face a substantial jet fuel supply deficit in the fourth quarter of 2026, despite increasing imports from alternative suppliers, including South Korea, as disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies continue to affect the market.
According to consultancy Energy Aspects, Europe’s jet fuel deficit is forecast to reach 510,000 barrels per day (bpd) during the fourth quarter. The United States and Asia-Pacific are expected to record surpluses of 18,000 bpd and 419,000 bpd, respectively.
A similar supply imbalance is expected during the third quarter.
Europe has increased jet fuel imports from Nigeria, the United States and Canada since the outbreak of the Iran conflict more than six months ago. The disruption to Middle Eastern supplies has affected approximately half of Europe’s jet fuel imports.
The continent remains exposed to further supply interruptions as tensions in the region continue.
South Korean Exports to Europe Increase
South Korea has emerged as a significant additional supplier, with shipments to Europe reaching their highest level in almost four years.
Data from commodities intelligence firm Kpler showed that European imports of South Korean jet fuel averaged 129,000 bpd so far in September, the highest level since October 2022.
Data from LSEG indicated similar shipment volumes.
James Noel-Beswick, head of commodities at Sparta Commodities, expects European jet fuel imports to continue as the region faces a persistent supply shortfall.
Jet fuel belongs to the middle distillates category, alongside diesel and gas oil. European diesel prices reached a record high during the week, exceeding levels in Asian markets.
According to Noel-Beswick, the widening price difference between European and Asian fuel benchmarks has made shipments to Europe more commercially attractive.
European Inventories Fall as Asian Refinery Output Rises
Europe’s increased reliance on imports coincides with declining inventories.
Independently held stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub fell to their lowest level in seven years during the week ending 10 September.
Asian suppliers typically increase jet fuel shipments to Europe when regional price differences make exports commercially viable.
Kpler data showed that average monthly Asian jet fuel exports to Europe totalled 1.5 million barrels last year.
South Korea has increased its fuel production, supported by higher refinery processing rates.
Government figures showed that South Korean jet fuel output reached almost 13.89 million barrels in July, its highest level in seven years. Exports also climbed to a three-and-a-half-year high.
Provisional data indicated that the country’s crude oil refining throughput reached 2.7 million bpd in July, an increase of 16% from June.
Traders expect August refining activity to exceed July’s level, although the final figures were not provided.
The additional supply from South Korea is helping Europe diversify its jet fuel imports, but the projected fourth-quarter deficit indicates that the region remains dependent on continued shipments from international suppliers.
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