What has Jefferies identified in the latest iPhone sales data?
Jefferies analyst Edison Lee has reported further signs of weaker demand for Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, citing changes in delivery availability, resale pricing and component orders.
In a Monday research note, Lee said the brokerage’s monitoring continued to indicate subdued demand for the two premium models.
The assessment contrasts with reported growth in overall iPhone sales in China, which Jefferies believes was partly supported by discounted sales of older devices.
Why are shorter delivery times significant?
Jefferies reported that delivery times for both iPhone 18 Pro models in China have declined to zero days.
The comparable waiting periods for the previous generation were six days for the Pro and 25 days for the Pro Max.
Delivery times in Japan have also shortened substantially year on year.
However, Jefferies noted that US delivery times for the Pro Max have increased, indicating that availability trends differ between markets.
Shorter lead times can reflect reduced demand, increased supply or a combination of the two factors.
What has happened to iPhone pricing in China?
Chinese online retailer PDD introduced discounts of 6% for the iPhone 18 Pro and 9% for the Pro Max on 16 October.
Jefferies also found that resale prices for the Pro models had moved below retail prices from 29 September.
By comparison, the equivalent devices last year were trading at premiums of between 1% and 6%.
The brokerage views these pricing changes as additional evidence that demand for the latest premium models may be below earlier expectations.
Are Apple’s suppliers receiving fewer orders?
Jefferies said industry contacts have reported reductions of approximately 10% to 15% in orders for certain iPhone components, including 2-nanometre chips.
The reported change in final assembly orders has been smaller, with some suppliers indicating a net reduction of around 2 million devices.
The difference suggests that the full effect of component order adjustments on finished-device production remains uncertain.
“We will continue to monitor supply chain feedback, but do believe further order cuts are possible if weak demand continues,” Lee wrote.
Apple has not confirmed the reported reductions in the information cited by Jefferies.
Why do overall iPhone sales figures present a different picture?
Reported iPhone sales volumes in China increased by more than 40% year on year during the first two weeks after shipments began.
That rate slowed to approximately 8% in early October.
Jefferies believes discounted sales of remaining iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max inventory contributed to the initial increase.
As a result, the brokerage argues that overall iPhone sales growth should not be interpreted as a direct measure of demand for the iPhone 18 Pro range.
What is the outlook for Apple’s foldable Duo?
Apple’s foldable Duo recorded delivery lead times exceeding 90 days after pre-orders began on 16 October.
Jefferies estimates that this corresponds to a maximum of approximately 6 million to 7 million shipments during 2026, consistent with market expectations.
The extended waiting period differs from the immediate availability reported for the iPhone 18 Pro models in China.
Jefferies will continue monitoring supply chain information, retail pricing and delivery times to assess whether Apple makes further adjustments to production.
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