Author: Fiona Craig

PureTech Health (LSE:PRTC) has unveiled new data from its Phase 2b ELEVATE IPF trial showing that its investigational therapy, deupirfenidone, demonstrated consistent safety and efficacy in treating older patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). This patient group has historically been underserved due to tolerability challenges with existing therapies.

The findings, presented at CHEST 2025 Annual Meeting, indicate that deupirfenidone could help close a significant treatment gap for older individuals living with IPF, potentially establishing a new standard of care and improving patient outcomes.

Financially, PureTech’s position remains mixed. While the company maintains strong liquidity, profitability pressures continue to weigh on its overall performance. Technical signals point to potential resistance levels, though current valuations appear attractive. During its recent earnings call, management struck a cautiously optimistic tone, acknowledging both opportunities and uncertainties tied to leadership transitions and funding dynamics.

More about PureTech Health

PureTech Health is a biotherapeutics company operating through a hub-and-spoke model that transforms early-stage scientific innovation into high-impact therapies. Its development strategy centers on advancing therapeutic candidates with validated pharmacology to address critical patient needs. The company has successfully advanced multiple programs, including three that have received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. PureTech aims to accelerate access to innovative treatments while building long-term value for its shareholders.

Virgin Wines UK PLC (LSE:VINO) has announced its audited financial results for the year ended June 2025, posting revenue of £59 million — broadly in line with the prior year despite a challenging and contracting market environment. The company surpassed its profitability targets, achieving an adjusted EBITDA of £2.3 million, supported by targeted investments in growth initiatives and customer acquisition.

Over the year, Virgin Wines recorded a 28% surge in new customer acquisitions, secured strong commercial partnerships, and reported notable expansion in its Warehouse Wines offering. Management expressed confidence in the company’s medium-term prospects, highlighting a continued focus on technology upgrades and customer base expansion to drive sustainable growth.

The company’s disciplined financial approach, which includes share buyback programs and management incentives, has been identified as a core strength. Positive technical signals further reinforce its current market standing, although its moderate valuation and lack of a dividend may temper enthusiasm for some investors.

More about Virgin Wines UK PLC

Virgin Wines UK PLC is among the leading direct-to-consumer online wine retailers in the UK. It specializes in delivering quality wines directly to customers, leveraging its online platform to strengthen its market presence. The company continues to focus on strategic partnerships and innovative acquisition strategies to accelerate its growth trajectory in the competitive online retail space.

Trafalgar Property Group PLC (LSE:TRAF) has released its annual results for the year ended 31 March 2025, revealing a tough year for the business. The group recorded turnover of just £600 and a post-tax loss of £400,266, reflecting the impact of sustained macroeconomic headwinds.

Despite these weak results, the company continues to pursue new opportunities through planning permissions and the sale of existing assets. Persistent inflation and a high cost of living across the UK have weighed heavily on its operations, though recent declines in borrowing costs have offered a glimmer of hope. To manage ongoing pressures, Trafalgar is outsourcing more functions and reinforcing relationships with funding partners.

Trafalgar New Homes remains a high-risk investment due to its financial instability, including negative equity, ongoing losses, and tight cash flow. While housing prices have been relatively stable, technical indicators point to an overbought stock, and its negative P/E ratio reflects a lack of profitability. Taken together, these factors signal a weak outlook and elevated investment risk.

More about Trafalgar New Homes

Trafalgar Property Group PLC is a residential and assisted living property developer focused on Kent, Surrey, Sussex, and the M25 corridor south of London. The company specializes in projects ranging from four to twenty units — a niche that sits between the capacity of smaller builders and the focus of larger developers.

Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) extended its decline on Tuesday, falling under $109,000 as the weekend rebound lost steam and enthusiasm around the so-called “Uptober” rally continued to wane. The retreat came even as broader risk sentiment improved on easing U.S.–China trade tensions and political developments in Asia.

By 09:26 ET (13:26 GMT), Bitcoin was down 2.3% at $108,820, leading losses across major digital assets and underperforming traditional markets.

Optimism over “Uptober” fades

Bitcoin’s attempt to hold above $110,000 has faltered since the early-October flash crash that erased roughly $500 billion in total crypto market value. That sudden plunge has kept traders cautious, limiting buying activity in an already volatile environment.

Seasonal optimism tied to “Uptober,” which refers to October’s historically strong performance for cryptocurrencies, has faded quickly. Bitcoin is now down over 2% for the month, with little sign of renewed momentum.

“So far this year, Uptober hasn’t gone to plan for Bitcoin bulls. Instead of seasonal strength, the price action has remained subdued with an early rally fizzling midway through the month, delivering an ugly reversal that may not be over yet,” FOREX.com analysts wrote.

They added that Bitcoin has broken away from its usual correlation with risk assets such as equities, which have hit record highs in recent weeks. According to their note, Bitcoin was “lagging badly in an environment where so many high-beta markets are ripping higher.”

On Tuesday, that divergence was clear. Asian equities surged — Japan’s markets hit record levels on optimism surrounding Sanae Takaichi’s progress toward becoming prime minister — while Chinese stocks climbed on conciliatory comments from U.S. officials over trade. Crypto markets, however, moved sharply lower.

Coinbase makes strategic $375M acquisition

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) announced plans to buy Echo, an investment platform for token sales, in a cash-and-stock deal valued at roughly $375 million.

Echo develops tools for public and private token offerings aimed at making capital raising more accessible. “We want to create more accessible, efficient, and transparent capital markets,” Coinbase said in a blog post.

Initially, Coinbase will use Echo’s Sonar platform to facilitate crypto token offerings before expanding into tokenized securities and real-world assets. Founded by Jordan “Cobie” Fish, Echo has helped blockchain projects raise over $200 million.

The deal reflects a surge in M&A activity in the digital asset space this year, supported by a more favorable U.S. regulatory environment.

Altcoins follow Bitcoin lower

Altcoins broadly mirrored Bitcoin’s losses. Ether dropped 3.5% to $3,881.71, failing to hold above $4,000. XRP slipped 1.1% to $2.42 despite news that Evernorth — backed by Ripple Labs — will go public on Nasdaq through a SPAC merger, raising more than $1 billion to acquire XRP.

Among other major tokens, BNB fell 3.1%, Cardano declined 2.4%, and Solana lost 3%. Memecoins also came under pressure, with Dogecoin and TRUMP both down more than 2%.

U.S. stock index futures were little changed early Tuesday, suggesting a flat open on Wall Street as investors appear ready to take a breather after the market’s strong two-session rebound.

The major indexes have climbed back to within striking distance of their all-time highs, supported by upbeat earnings and optimism around monetary policy. However, uncertainty tied to U.S.–China trade tensions and the prolonged government shutdown is keeping traders cautious.

The absence of fresh U.S. economic data, largely due to the shutdown, may also contribute to the quiet tone ahead of Friday’s release of key inflation figures. That data will be closely watched for signals about the path of interest rates before the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 97.8% chance of a quarter-point rate cut next week and a 95.5% probability of another cut in December.

On the corporate front, General Motors (NYSE:GM) surged in premarket trading after reporting stronger-than-expected third-quarter results and raising its full-year profit guidance. Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) also gained after delivering a beat on both revenue and earnings. In contrast, Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) may come under pressure despite topping earnings estimates, as its quarterly revenue fell short of forecasts.

The upbeat sentiment follows Monday’s strong session, when the S&P 500 climbed 71.12 points, or 1.1%, to 6,735.13; the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 515.97 points, or 1.1%, to 46,706.58; and the Nasdaq Composite surged 310.57 points, or 1.4%, to 22,990.53.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) was a standout mover, climbing 3.9% to a new record close after Loop Capital upgraded the stock to “Buy” on strong demand for the iPhone 17 series.

Market optimism was also lifted by remarks from National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, who said he expects the government shutdown to end this week. Speaking on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Hassett noted he anticipates moderate Democrats will “cross the aisle” to help pass a funding bill.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump’s administration is quietly easing tariff rules by granting exemptions on dozens of products and signaling more carve-outs during trade negotiations.

Sector-wise, steel stocks outperformed, with the NYSE Arca Steel Index rallying 3.5%. Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) soared 21.5% after revealing plans to explore entering the rare earth mining sector.

Gold miners also posted strong gains as bullion prices rebounded, driving the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index up 3%. Airline, banking, oil services, and semiconductor shares also advanced, contributing to broad-based strength across the market.

European equity markets opened slightly firmer on Tuesday, with investors closely watching a wave of corporate earnings while also monitoring the latest developments in U.S.–China trade relations.

In the U.K., fresh data from the Office for National Statistics showed that the budget deficit widened in September as government spending increased. Public sector net borrowing rose to £20.2 billion from £18.6 billion a year earlier, marking the highest September figure since 2020.

Across the region, the CAC 40 gained 0.5%, the FTSE 100 added 0.3%, and the DAX in Germany rose 0.1%.

Among corporate movers, Edenred (EU:EDEN) jumped after the vouchers and benefits card provider posted third-quarter revenue that topped forecasts. SEGRO (LSE:SGRO) also advanced strongly after reporting solid quarterly results, supported by improved occupier sentiment and an uptick in pre-letting activity.

Banking heavyweight HSBC Holdings (LSE:HSBA) traded higher as it named former NatWest executive David Lindberg as CEO of its U.K. business.

On the downside, Getlink (EU:GET) slipped after delivering flat third-quarter revenue, while BHP (LSE:BHP) fell after the miner reported a 2% decline in fiscal Q1 iron ore production.

Eurofins Scientific (EU:ERF) also came under pressure after its BioPharma segment posted just 0.4% organic revenue growth in the third quarter. Meanwhile, Tele2 (BIT:1TEL) retreated after reporting weaker-than-expected quarterly sales.

Playtech (LSE:PTEC) saw its stock plunge more than 30% on Tuesday after Evolution AB announced it had expanded an ongoing lawsuit to include the gaming software group as a defendant.

According to Evolution, legal discovery revealed that Playtech allegedly commissioned a short report in 2021 that later became central to a protracted legal dispute.

The New Jersey Superior Court ultimately deemed the report “not truthful,” Evolution said in a statement. Regulators in New Jersey and Pennsylvania later closed their investigations into the matter without taking any corrective action.

As part of the latest development, Evolution has officially added Playtech as a defendant in the case. The company also noted that it expects the litigation process to extend through 2026.

Getlink (EU:GET) reported largely stable third-quarter revenue on Tuesday, broadly matching market expectations, and reiterated its EBITDA guidance for the 2025 financial year.

Group revenue for the quarter came in at €472 million, narrowly missing the consensus estimate of €473 million. The slight shortfall was mainly due to marginally softer pricing trends in both Railway Network and Shuttle Services.

Eurostar passenger traffic rose 7.1% year over year to 3,194,000, surpassing forecasts of 3,184,000. This supported Railway Network revenue of €108 million, just below the €110 million analysts had expected. Shuttle Services revenue reached €242 million, reflecting a 1.1% year-on-year price increase, slightly under the anticipated 1.2%.

In total, Eurotunnel divisional revenue amounted to €364 million, compared with a consensus of €365 million. Europorte delivered €42 million, in line with forecasts.

ElecLink, the group’s electricity transmission arm, generated €66 million in quarterly revenue — down 13% from the previous year but consistent with projections. As of the end of September, ElecLink had secured €217 million in annual revenue, representing 97% of capacity utilization, up from €205 million and 92% in June. Looking ahead to 2026, €176 million in revenue has already been locked in, covering 59% of capacity, compared to 46% earlier in the year, according to Jefferies.

The company reaffirmed its 2025 EBITDA guidance in the range of €780 million to €830 million, assuming an exchange rate of £1 = €1.184.

Analysts at Kepler Cheuvreux highlighted that Shuttle volumes remain below pre-pandemic levels, while Eurostar has bounced back more quickly thanks to a healthier passenger mix. However, regulated pricing continues to limit full inflation pass-through.

Getlink currently trades at a next-twelve-month free cash flow yield of 5.1% and a dividend yield of 4.2%, compared with its three-year averages of around 7.2% and 3.9%, respectively, Jefferies noted.

Kepler Cheuvreux pointed out that the company’s performance is closely tied to Shuttle and Eurostar traffic trends as well as the electricity price spread between France and the UK. The firm also emphasized that Getlink is ready for the new European Entry/Exit System border controls, which are not expected to have any immediate impact on results.

The contribution from ElecLink has normalized compared with last year. Ongoing competition from ferries is being partly offset by anti-dumping regulations in France and the UK, as well as EU environmental regulations.

Kepler Cheuvreux cautioned that moderate dividend growth may prove less appealing in an environment of elevated bond yields. It identified several key risks to the outlook: significant fluctuations in Shuttle and Eurostar traffic, material shifts in the France–UK power price differential, and potential volatility in the bond market.

Atos (EU:ATO) reported a significant revenue drop in the third quarter as its sweeping restructuring plan — dubbed “Genesis” — continues to reshape the business.

Revenue came in at €1.98 billion, representing a 10.5% organic decline. The company nonetheless reaffirmed its 2025 profitability and cash flow objectives, signaling confidence in its ongoing turnaround. Shares, however, fell more than 9% in premarket trading on Tuesday.

Net cash outflow for the period was €38 million, achieved without resorting to receivables factoring or other short-term cash measures. This figure included €87 million in restructuring charges as the company pressed ahead with cost-cutting initiatives.

The Atos Strategic Business Unit (SBU) generated €1.62 billion in revenue — down 19% organically — reflecting its continued withdrawal from low-margin contracts and softer market conditions. By contrast, the Eviden SBU surged 77% organically to €356 million, supported by approximately €200 million from the Jupiter contract.

The book-to-bill ratio remained at 66%, unchanged year on year, with improving cross-selling and renewal activity. Atos also pointed to “signs of recovery” in North America and in Germany, Austria, and Central Europe.

Chief Executive Philippe Salle stated: “We continued to execute on our strategy and transformation plan. Business fundamentals are being restored. Our cost base is under control with further restructuring and savings achieved over the summer.”

Atos reiterated its expectation to hit full-year profitability and cash generation targets, projecting a return to organic growth and positive cash flow in 2026 as its sales pipeline strengthens and cost optimizations deepen. The group now forecasts full-year 2025 revenue above €8 billion, factoring in around €200 million of foreign exchange headwinds.

Analysts at Kepler Cheuvreux noted that “revenues are therefore unlikely to return to positive in Q4,” as the Jupiter contract weighed on Q3 results. They expect that impact to ease as new deals ramp up and year-over-year comparisons become more favorable.

The company has revised its constant-currency revenue target downward by roughly €300 million from the €8.5 billion previously guided after Q2. Still, Kepler highlighted that “operating profit is however expected to be around €340 million,” roughly 7% above its prior estimates.

The brokerage added that the “return to an operating margin over 4% confirms the very heavy work that the group is doing on costs,” noting that Atos maintained its operating profit goal despite the lower revenue outlook.

“We keep our Reduce rating on the back of soft momentum in revenues. We also consider 2028 targets to be too optimistic,” it concluded.

Gold’s historic price surge could be nearing its breaking point, according to John Higgins, Chief Markets Economist at Capital Economics. Higgins cautioned that the precious metal has climbed well beyond its “fair” value, showing classic signs of a market bubble.

He noted that gold’s rise has not only exceeded inflation trends but also diverged from its long-term relationship with other real assets. “At the start of 2025, the price of gold was already close to its prior peak in real terms, which it had reached in 1980,” he wrote in a note. “But now, the real price of gold is nearly 60% higher than that peak, and more than three times its average since 1980.”

While gold is traditionally viewed as a safe store of value, Higgins argued that the recent rally can’t be explained by typical drivers like falling real yields or persistently high inflation. “Since gold pays no interest, the opportunity cost of holding it declines when the yields of such bonds fall. But those yields have generally been rising,” he said, pointing out that the once-strong link between Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields and gold prices has “broken down in recent years.”

He also rejected inflation as the main explanation for the boom, highlighting that “Inflation has been trending down since its post-pandemic peak, even if it remains higher than the Fed would like.”

Instead, Higgins believes speculative behavior is likely playing a key role in pushing prices higher. Potential drivers, he said, include “reserve managers diversifying out of the dollar,” increased ETF buying, “growing demand from China,” and “the simple fear of missing out.”

Still, not all of these forces are short-term. “Some of these factors may be ‘structural’ and therefore continue to underpin the price of gold,” he said. “But it also looks increasingly possible that gold is in a bubble that will burst before long.”

Gold’s climb to record levels has been supported by geopolitical uncertainty, central bank accumulation, and strong retail investor interest. But Higgins’ assessment suggests that the market’s momentum may have outpaced fundamental realities, raising the risk of a sharp reversal.

Spot gold prices fell 1.8% today, down $77 to $4,283 per ounce as of 09:38 GMT.