U.S. equity futures pointed to a weaker open on Thursday as doubts persisted over the outlook for renewed talks between Washington and Tehran, despite President Donald Trump’s decision earlier this week to prolong the ceasefire. Oil prices held above the $100-per-barrel mark amid ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares edged lower in after-hours trading, as stronger-than-expected earnings were overshadowed by elevated spending plans for 2026.
Futures head lower
U.S. stock futures declined, pressured by continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East even after the announcement of the ceasefire extension.
At 03:32 ET, Dow futures were down 277 points, or 0.6%, S&P 500 futures fell by 30 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 104 points, also 0.4%.
Despite the softer futures, Wall Street ended the previous session higher, moving closer to record highs. The extension of the ceasefire, combined with resilient corporate earnings, helped support risk appetite.
According to Bloomberg data, nearly 80% of S&P 500 companies that have reported first-quarter earnings have beaten expectations.
“[T]he main focus for risk assets is still the overall path that we’re on, which continues to lead towards the conflict coming to an end,” said Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone.
“[B]oth sides are now seeking an ‘off ramp’ to de-escalate proceedings, and that public remarks from each party are primarily aimed at obtaining greater negotiating leverage, as opposed to seeking a return to kinetic action. So long as that remains the direction of travel, risk appetite is likely to remain underpinned[.]”
Unclear path for U.S.-Iran negotiations
Investors remained alert for any indication that fresh diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran could materialize. Trump said discussions are “possible” as early as Friday.
Earlier in the week, the president stated on social media that the ceasefire had been extended at Pakistan’s request, as it continues to act as a mediator between the two sides. Trump added that the truce would remain in place “until such time as” Iran submits a “unified proposal” for peace.
However, uncertainty around any potential talks remains elevated. Shortly after the announcement, Iran attacked three ships and seized two near the Strait of Hormuz, in response to the ongoing U.S. blockade of its ports.
Oil remains elevated above $100
Concerns over further supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply passes—helped keep crude prices above $100 per barrel.
“The reassuring element is that at least one party – the U.S. – is signaling a strong desire to resume negotiations swiftly. What is less reassuring is the lack of clarity around plans for reopening the Strait of Hormuz,” analysts at ING said.
They added that if hopes for a resolution continue to fade, “the reality of supply disruption will set in, leaving further upside for prices.” In the absence of progress, markets could become “increasingly numb to the noise and headlines that have dictated price action recently.”
Although oil prices have pulled back from the sharp spike seen after the conflict began in late February, they remain well above pre-war levels, raising concerns about inflation and global growth.
Tesla slips despite beating estimates
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported quarterly results that exceeded expectations on both revenue and profit, with its automotive segment performing better than anticipated.
However, the stock turned lower in after-hours trading after the company outlined plans to spend more than $25 billion this year to support a shift toward robotics and autonomous driving. Earlier guidance had pointed to capital expenditure of around $20 billion.
Shares were last down 1.8% after the close, reversing an earlier gain of more than 4%.
CEO Elon Musk also tempered optimism regarding the transition. Speaking on the earnings call, he said he could not estimate the production pace of the Optimus robot in 2026, citing challenges in repurposing manufacturing lines previously used for the Model S/X.
“Optimus is a completely new product with a completely new production line. It’s just literally impossible to predict,” Musk said, adding that production would likely be “quite slow at first.”
He also highlighted a “cautious approach” to Tesla’s autonomous driving and robotaxi ambitions, warning that revenue from these initiatives will “not be super material” this year.
Earnings and economic data in focus
Investors are also watching for additional earnings releases ahead of the U.S. market open, including from American Express and Lockheed Martin, while Intel is due to report after the close.
On the macroeconomic front, upcoming U.S. PMI data for April could offer insight into how businesses are managing cost pressures linked to the Iran conflict.
In March, the purchasing managers’ index fell to 50.3 from 51.9, marking its weakest reading since September 2023.
At the time, S&P Global’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said the data showed “the U.S. economy buckling under the strain of rising prices and intensifying uncertainty, as the war in the Middle East exacerbates existing concerns regarding other policy decisions in recent months, notably with respect to tariffs.”
