Author: Fiona Craig

U.S. equity index futures were pointing to a slightly higher start on Friday, suggesting stocks could build on the rebound recorded in the previous session.

Markets may continue to find support from Thursday’s upward move, which was fueled by a positive response to earnings from companies including Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Morgan (NYSE:MS).

Even so, buying appetite could remain restrained as investors stay alert to mounting geopolitical risks around the globe.

President Donald Trump’s remarks about taking control of Greenland remain in focus, particularly after European troops arrived in the territory as a show of backing.

Traders are also closely tracking developments in Venezuela, unrest in Iran, and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

After posting solid gains for much of Thursday’s session, equities pared some of their advances later in the day but still finished largely higher.

All three major indexes closed in positive territory, recovering part of the losses seen over the prior two sessions.

The Dow rose 292.81 points, or 0.6%, to 49,442.44, the Nasdaq added 58.27 points, or 0.3%, to 23,530.02, and the S&P 500 climbed 17.87 points, or 0.3%, to 6,944.47.

Early momentum on Wall Street was driven in part by strong interest in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), whose shares surged 4.4% following upbeat earnings.

The chipmaker rallied after reporting a sharp rise in fourth-quarter profits and unveiling capital expenditure plans that topped expectations, bolstering confidence in the artificial intelligence theme.

“After last week’s revenue update it was an open secret that TSMC would be reporting a record quarter but the details are still striking,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“Not least the levels of capital expenditure TSMC is committing to, suggesting it is fully confident the AI boom has legs,” he added. “This is underlined by the company’s guidance for 30% growth in 2026.”

Sentiment also received a boost from U.S. labor market data, after the Labor Department reported an unexpected drop in first-time unemployment claims for the week ended January 10.

According to the Labor Department, initial jobless claims declined to 198,000, down 9,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 207,000.

Economists had forecast claims would rise to 215,000 from the previously reported 208,000.

Airline stocks were among the strongest performers, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index jumping 2.6%.

Semiconductor stocks also remained firm more broadly, as reflected by a 1.8% gain in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.

Financials, networking, and utilities also posted solid advances, while pharmaceutical, oil, and biotechnology stocks lagged behind.

Oil prices edged up on Friday as traders continued to assess potential supply-side risks, even as the likelihood of a U.S. military strike on Iran appeared to diminish.

Brent crude rose 5 cents, or 0.1%, to $63.81 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate added 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $59.27 a barrel by 0749 GMT.

Earlier in the week, both benchmarks climbed to multi-month highs after protests intensified in Iran and U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at possible strikes against the country. Despite some easing since then, Brent remained on course for a fourth consecutive weekly increase.

“Given the potential political upheaval in Iran, oil prices are likely to experience greater volatility as markets digest the potential for supply disruptions,” BMI analysts said in a note to clients.

Late on Thursday, Trump said that Tehran’s crackdown on protesters appeared to be easing, which helped calm fears of military action that could threaten oil supplies.

“While (Iranian supply) risks have eased somewhat, they remain significant, keeping the market nervous in the short term,” IG analysts said in a client note.

“Any escalation with Iran will also raise concerns about potential disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint where around 20m b/d passes,” they added.

Even so, analysts remained cautious about the broader supply outlook for the rest of the year, despite earlier expectations from OPEC that the market would remain balanced.

“Sentiment is driving markets, but the impact of headlines is always short-lived, especially when fundamentals look comfortable in the backseat,” said Phillip Nova senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva.

“Despite the steady drumbeat of geopolitical risks and macro speculation, the underlying balance still points to ample supply … unless we see a genuine revival in Chinese demand or a meaningful bottleneck in physical barrel flows, oil looks range-bound, with Brent broadly hovering between $57 and $67.”

On Wednesday, OPEC said global oil supply and demand are expected to stay balanced in 2026, with demand growth in 2027 projected to match this year’s pace.

Looking ahead, market participants expect near-term price action to remain driven by geopolitical developments and macroeconomic signals.

Immediate catalysts for the oil market are likely to include developments in Iran and the release of key Chinese economic data next week, said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong, who added that WTI crude is expected to trade sideways in the near term within a $55.75 to $63.00 per barrel range.

Gold prices were little changed on Friday, hovering below the record levels reached earlier in the week, as upbeat U.S. labor market data reduced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, easing geopolitical concerns tied to Iran diminished demand for safe-haven assets.

Spot gold slipped 0.1% to $4,608.55 an ounce by 02:11 ET (07:11 GMT), while U.S. Gold Futures eased 0.2% to $4,611.10.

The precious metal has pulled back from Wednesday’s all-time high of $4,642.72 per ounce. Despite the mild retreat, gold remained on course to post a weekly gain of around 2%.

Strong U.S. data reshapes rate expectations

Market sentiment shifted after fresh data showed that initial jobless claims in the United States fell more than anticipated last week, highlighting the continued strength of the labor market.

The stronger-than-expected figures reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve could keep borrowing costs elevated for longer, prompting investors to push back expectations for interest rate cuts later this year.

Higher interest rates generally weigh on assets like gold that do not offer yield, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

Following the data release, the U.S. Dollar Index climbed to its highest level in six weeks against a basket of major currencies, adding further pressure to gold by making it more expensive for overseas buyers.

Reduced Iran risks limit safe-haven demand

Gold had rallied earlier in the week as investors sought shelter amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty linked to unrest in Iran.

Widespread protests and government crackdowns had raised fears of escalation and potential supply disruptions, supporting demand for precious metals.

However, those concerns eased after U.S. President Donald Trump softened his previously hawkish stance on possible military intervention, signaling a more cautious approach and citing reports that violent crackdowns on demonstrators may be subsiding.

Broader metals weaken

Other precious and industrial metals traded lower on Friday, weighed down by the stronger U.S. dollar.

Silver fell 1.7% to $90.87 per ounce, while platinum futures dropped 2.1% to $2,361.31 per ounce.

In base metals, benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange declined 1.7% to $12,907.20 a ton, while U.S. copper futures slid 1.8% to $5.88 a pound.

Futures tied to major U.S. equity benchmarks edged higher after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (NYSE:TSM) delivered strong earnings that lifted market sentiment in the previous session. Shares of the world’s largest contract chipmaker rose in Taiwan trading, while investors prepared for a fresh wave of quarterly results from U.S. banks. In commodities, gold eased back from record levels and oil prices stabilized following sharp recent declines.

Futures move higher

U.S. stock futures pointed upward early Friday as enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence gained renewed traction following TSMC’s blowout earnings earlier in the week.

At 03:03 ET, Dow futures were up 88 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures rose 25 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 138 points, or 0.5%.

Wall Street’s main indexes surged on Thursday, with TSMC’s earnings acting as a catalyst for gains across AI-related stocks such as Nvidia, Applied Materials, and Advanced Micro Devices, alongside European counterparts including ASM International and ASML.

That said, analysts at Vital Knowledge noted that momentum cooled from intraday highs, as several long-established software companies — including Salesforce — came under pressure due to “ongoing ripple effects” stemming from the introduction of new AI products by firms such as Anthropic and Alibaba.

U.S. economic data released during the session was broadly supportive, but also pushed interest rate expectations in a more hawkish direction. Markets have increasingly priced in that the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut may not occur until July, a shift that helped drive bond yields higher.

Geopolitical factors also lingered in the background. Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting that tensions with Iran were easing weighed on oil prices, even as new friction emerged in Greenland, where several NATO countries have deployed troops following claims from the White House that the United States “needs” to acquire the semi-autonomous Danish territory.

TSMC gains in Taipei

Shares of TSMC climbed in Taipei on Friday after the company reported stronger-than-expected quarterly results and reiterated robust demand from the artificial intelligence sector.

The stock rose nearly 3% to close at T$1,740.0. Meanwhile, its U.S.-listed shares edged higher in after-hours trading, following a 4.4% gain on Thursday.

The chipmaker posted a record quarterly profit, exceeding expectations as demand for its advanced chips remained elevated due to AI-related applications. Chief Executive Officer C.C. Wei indicated that the AI boom shows little sign of slowing, saying that despite anticipated higher costs in 2026, TSMC’s earnings outlook remains positive.

TSMC is a key supplier to major U.S. technology companies such as Nvidia and Apple, and has been a primary beneficiary of the AI-driven surge in global semiconductor demand in recent years.

Bank earnings in focus

Attention now turns to upcoming earnings releases from several U.S. financial institutions.

PNC Financial Services (NYSE:PNC), State Street (NYSE:STT), and M&T Bank (NYSE:MTB) are all scheduled to report quarterly results before the opening bell on Wall Street.

Earnings reports from the largest U.S. banks earlier this week highlighted how volatile financial markets in 2025 supported trading activity. A renewed pickup in dealmaking also lifted investment banking fees, with Morgan Stanley’s finance chief noting an acceleration in the pipeline of mergers and initial public offerings. JPMorgan Chase’s CFO added that “strong client engagement” is expected to extend into 2026.

According to Vital Knowledge, large banks have “spoken positively about the macro landscape,” reinforcing expectations that the U.S. economy can remain resilient this year despite ongoing global uncertainties.

Gold pulls back

Gold prices slipped modestly, retreating from record highs reached earlier in the week, as resilient U.S. labor market data reduced expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts and easing tensions around Iran dampened demand for safe-haven assets.

Spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,605.20 per ounce, while U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.3% to $4,608.86.

Although bullion pulled back from Wednesday’s record high of $4,642.72 per ounce, it remained on track to post a weekly gain of around 2%.

Oil stabilizes

Oil prices edged higher, consolidating after steep losses in the previous session as concerns about an immediate U.S. military strike on Iran subsided, easing supply-related fears.

Brent crude futures rose 0.1% to $63.84 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.2% to $59.30 a barrel.

Both benchmarks had fallen more than 4% a day earlier after President Trump said Tehran’s crackdown on protesters was easing, reducing worries over potential disruptions to oil supplies. Despite the rebound, crude prices remain on track to finish the week largely unchanged after hitting multi-month highs earlier amid heightened unrest in Iran.

MJ Gleeson plc (LSE:GLE) said it sold 848 homes in the first half of fiscal 2026, representing a 6% increase from 801 units in the same period last year, and confirmed that full-year results remain expected to be in line with market forecasts.

Net reservation rates at the Gleeson Homes division improved to 0.75 per site per week, compared with 0.55 in the first half of 2025. Excluding bulk reservations, the rate stood at 0.44. At the period end, Gleeson Homes had a pipeline of 597 plots, supporting expectations that around 650 sales will complete in the second half of the financial year.

The division opened nine new build sites during the period, down from 11 a year earlier, with the reduction attributed to local planning constraints. The group said operational restructuring and efficiency initiatives continued, with associated costs expected to be recognised as exceptional items over the course of the year.

Gleeson Partnerships delivered its first homes to private rental investors and housing associations during the half, although activity levels were influenced by the timing of government funding. Gleeson Land completed three site sales and reported sustained demand for prime consented land.

During the period, the Land division submitted 15 new site applications and secured two planning consents. Further site disposals are dependent on the completion of final technical agreements.

The group ended the half-year with net debt of £22.5 million, unchanged from 31 December 2024. Chief executive Graham Prothero said, “We are pleased to have delivered a solid performance in a subdued market. We now expect to see an improvement in new home sales through the Spring selling season on the back of last month’s rate cut, and as uncertainty in the run-up to the Budget continues to subside.”

Gleeson Homes, which accounts for the majority of group revenue, said demand for new homes remained subdued but stable amid current economic conditions. The increase in reservation rates reflects steady buyer activity despite fewer site openings compared with the prior year.

The group said the existing sales pipeline provides good visibility for second-half completions, while the Land division’s progress highlights a measured but active approach to managing its consented land portfolio. Overall, MJ Gleeson reiterated that its full-year outlook remains aligned with market expectations, underpinned by first-half delivery, a stable debt position and ongoing operational initiatives across the business.