Author: Fiona Craig

Tharisa (LSE:THS) reported a strong safety outcome alongside mixed operational results for the first quarter of its 2026 financial year. Lost-time injury rates were extremely low across both Tharisa Minerals and Karo Platinum, while metallurgical performance improved, with higher recoveries for both platinum group metals (PGMs) and chrome despite disruption from heavy rainfall and lightning during the period.

Production of PGMs and chrome in the quarter declined compared with the previous quarter, reflecting planned mining volumes and typical seasonal impacts. However, the effect on financial performance was partly offset by higher PGM basket prices and steady chrome pricing, which supported revenues and cash generation. As a result, the group ended the quarter with a net cash position of US$47.0 million.

The balance sheet strength allowed Tharisa to continue funding underground development at its flagship operation while progressing the Karo project in line with available capital. Management highlighted that this positions the group well within a PGM market environment marked by ongoing platinum supply deficits and resilient pricing conditions.

More about Tharisa

Tharisa is an integrated mining and metals group focused on platinum group metals and chrome concentrates. The company operates across the full value chain, from exploration and mining through to processing, beneficiation, marketing, sales and logistics. Its core asset is the low-cost, long-life Tharisa Mine on South Africa’s Bushveld Complex, alongside the development of the tier-one Karo Platinum Project in Zimbabwe. Tharisa is also pursuing downstream beneficiation and energy-transition technologies, including iron chromium redox flow batteries, to support decarbonisation and long-duration energy storage.

First Class Metals (LSE:FCM) has broadened its exploration focus beyond gold after securing options to acquire 100% interests in two rare earth element (REE) prospects in northwest Ontario, known as Block H and Block F. The move marks the company’s entry into critical minerals exploration while retaining gold as the core pillar of its strategy.

The two properties, covering approximately 18km² and 33km² respectively, are located in the White Otter Batholith area near FCM’s Sunbeam gold project. Both sit within one of the most anomalous REE zones identified in Ontario’s lake sediment database and are believed to lie on the traditional territory of Lac des Mille Lacs First Nation, where First Class Metals already has an established working relationship.

Under the three-year option agreements, financial commitments in the first year are deliberately modest, limiting upfront exposure while the company completes desktop studies and prepares for an initial prospecting-led field programme starting in spring 2026. This work is expected to focus on ground-truthing historic anomalies, validating existing assay data and refining geological models before any potential escalation of exploration activity.

By targeting thorium-associated REE mineralisation in a region recognised by Canada as a priority critical minerals jurisdiction, First Class Metals is positioning itself to benefit from increasing global demand for rare earths and Western initiatives to diversify supply chains away from China. However, the company’s near-term outlook continues to be weighed down by weak financial metrics, including the absence of revenue, ongoing losses and continued cash burn. Mixed technical indicators and valuation constraints linked to negative earnings offer limited offset to these challenges.

More about First Class Metals Plc

First Class Metals Plc is a UK-listed mineral exploration company focused on discovering economic metal deposits across a portfolio of properties in Ontario, Canada. Its primary emphasis is on gold exploration within this Tier-1 mining jurisdiction, while it is increasingly seeking complementary exposure to critical and strategic minerals aligned with government-supported supply chain priorities.

Metir (LSE:MET) said trading for the year ended 31 December 2025 was in line with management expectations, with revenues forecast to surge to around £1.5m from £0.23m in the prior year. The sharp increase was driven by strong overseas demand for its Microtox instruments and reagents, renewed uptake of its relaunched sulphate-reducing bacteria test kits, and progress on sizeable potable water monitoring projects, including a continuous toxic monitoring installation in Qatar.

The company noted that manufacturing constraints at outsourced suppliers during the fourth quarter restricted its ability to convert orders into revenue, resulting in some Microtox unit shipments being deferred into early 2026. Despite these short-term limitations, demand remained robust across key product lines. To address capacity bottlenecks and support future growth, Metir strengthened its balance sheet through a £1m fundraising, which will be used to expand production capability, increase exposure to higher-margin recurring reagent sales, and accelerate the development of new technologies.

Looking ahead, the group is advancing innovations such as mobile PFAS monitoring solutions and real-time pathogen detection platforms. The board believes these initiatives, combined with increased manufacturing capacity, will underpin near-term revenue growth, improve margins and move the business closer to sustainable profitability.

More about Metir plc

Metir plc is a UK-headquartered provider of rapid-response, mobile and point-of-use water and environmental monitoring technologies, operating through its Modern Water and Microsaic Systems divisions. The company develops and supplies instruments, reagents and testing kits for toxicity, PFAS monitoring and pathogen detection, delivering real-time water and liquid quality data for environmental, public health and industrial customers worldwide.

Ajax (AQSE: AJAX) has begun drilling at its Eureka Gold and Copper Project in Jujuy Province, Argentina, marking the first time the historic mining area has ever been drill tested despite nearly 400 years of documented production.

The natural resources investment company said the fully funded and permitted initial programme will consist of around 10 diamond drill holes, totaling approximately 1,500 metres. The campaign is designed to test a combination of shallow geochemical and induced polarisation (IP) anomalies, alongside a deeper IP chargeability target highlighted in a 2014 SRK Consulting report. That deeper anomaly is interpreted as a possible transition into a sulphide-rich zone within the broader mineralised system.

Drilling is taking place close to Mina Eureka, a historic copper and gold mine within the project area. Although the mine has a production history stretching back roughly four centuries, it has never been subjected to modern drilling, leaving much of its subsurface potential unexplored.

Previous work at Eureka has identified multiple high-priority targets. Surface sampling has confirmed high-grade copper oxides, including historical results of up to 6.1% Cu, with numerous samples exceeding 0.5% Cu across several earlier exploration campaigns.

Ajax said all work is being carried out in line with stringent environmental, health, safety and community engagement standards. The start of drilling represents a major milestone for the project and a key step in Ajax’s strategy of unlocking value from historically productive but underexplored assets.

Initial assay results from the programme are expected by the end of the first quarter of 2026.

Commenting on the development, Chief Executive Officer Ippolito Ingo Cattaneo said:

“The commencement of drilling at Eureka represents an important milestone for Ajax. Opportunities to drill test a project with a 400-year history of copper and gold production that has never previously been drilled are uncommon. The presence of strong surface geochemistry, multiple IP anomalies, and the proximity to historic workings provides a compelling technical rationale for this initial programme, while recognising that drilling is required to validate the geological model.

A number of historical third-party studies provide additional context regarding the potential scale of the mineralised system. Minera Peñoles estimated an exploration potential of 61.6 Mt at 1.0% Cu, containing approximately 616,000 tonnes of copper, while work undertaken by Codelco also pointed to the presence of a significant copper system. In addition, Mantos Blancos, now part of Anglo American, carried out underground mapping and bulk sampling and declared a historical, non-NI 43-101 compliant gold resource of approximately 52,000 ounces, based on 600,000 tonnes at 2.7 g/t Au.

This fully funded programme is a key step in systematically assessing the potential of the Eureka Project, and we look forward to keeping shareholders informed as results are received, analysed, and interpreted over the coming months.”

Note on historical estimates

Ajax cautioned that the historical estimates referenced were prepared by previous operators and do not comply with current reporting standards. The figures have not been verified by the company and should not be treated as Mineral Resources or Mineral Reserves. They are included solely to provide geological context and to explain the rationale behind the current drilling programme.

Great Western Mining Corporation (LSE:GWMO) has named seasoned geologist Edward (Ed) Loye as Chief Executive Officer, with effect from 1 February 2026, as the company sharpens its focus on advancing exploration and development activities in Nevada. Loye, who has already been advising the group as a geological consultant and is expected to join the board in due course, brings over 20 years of international experience spanning rare earths, critical minerals, and precious and base metals.

His background includes founding and leading multiple exploration ventures, as well as contributing to UK government-supported critical minerals initiatives. The board believes Loye’s combination of technical depth and commercial leadership will help accelerate progress across Great Western’s Nevada portfolio and support the transition of key assets toward development, with a clear emphasis on long-term value creation for shareholders.

More about Great Western Mining

Great Western Mining Corporation is a diversified exploration and development company focused on strategic and precious metals in Nevada, operating across several wholly owned claim groups in Mineral County — a well-established and mining-friendly jurisdiction. The company follows a multi-commodity approach, balancing near-term development with longer-term exploration. Its portfolio includes the flagship Huntoon Copper Project, which hosts a JORC-compliant copper resource, alongside gold, silver and early-stage tungsten assets aligned with U.S. critical minerals priorities. Great Western is also evaluating farm-out and joint venture options to unlock additional value from its asset base.

Oil markets are likely to face renewed downside in 2026 as accelerating production growth deepens an already sizable surplus, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. The bank expects the forces that weighed on prices in 2025 to remain in place, with abundant supply continuing to outweigh geopolitical risks and limiting any durable price recovery.

Brent crude fell 14% in 2025 despite frequent spikes linked to geopolitical flashpoints — a pattern Goldman strategists believe will persist.

Goldman’s team, led by Daan Struyven, forecasts average 2026 prices of $56 a barrel for Brent and $52 for WTI, well below current forward prices of roughly $62 and $58. The projections reflect what the bank describes as a sustained wave of new supply, leaving the market with an estimated surplus of around 2.3 million barrels per day.

Growing global inventories underline the imbalance, with strategists arguing that “rebalancing the market likely requires lower oil prices in 2026” unless there are significant supply disruptions or fresh output cuts from OPEC.

In its base-case outlook, Goldman assumes OPEC will not introduce additional cuts next year, noting that the supply increases seen in 2025 were intentional and that recent price weakness is driven by temporary supply strength rather than softening demand.

The bank expects prices to drift lower through the year, with Brent and WTI bottoming near $54 and $50 a barrel, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2026 as stock builds accelerate at OECD commercial storage sites. Analysts added that onshore inventories are becoming increasingly important for price formation, as floating storage is already elevated and beginning to level off.

Supply-side strength remains the dominant theme. Goldman points to continued production outperformance in the United States and Russia, along with “slightly higher Venezuela production,” as factors pressuring longer-dated prices and reinforcing a downward bias across the futures curve.

Reflecting this view, Goldman has lowered its three-year forward fair value estimate for Brent by $5 to $64 and cut its 2027 average price forecasts by the same amount. The bank now expects Brent and WTI to average $58 and $54, respectively, in 2027, as excess supply continues to delay market rebalancing.

While geopolitical risks remain elevated, strategists see them as a source of volatility rather than a driver of sustained gains. “While threats to sanctioned supply could create price spikes,” they said, policymakers’ preference for plentiful energy supply and relatively low oil prices is likely to cap any upside, particularly ahead of U.S. midterm elections.

Overall, risks to the outlook are viewed as broadly balanced but skewed modestly to the downside.

Looking further ahead, Goldman expects oil prices to begin recovering from 2027 as non-OPEC supply growth slows and demand remains resilient. Even so, the bank has trimmed its long-term assumptions, lowering its Brent and WTI forecasts for 2030–2035 to $75 and $71 a barrel, while maintaining that a longer-term price recovery will still be needed to support investment after years of subdued long-cycle spending.

Gold surged to unprecedented levels as political risk and macroeconomic uncertainty intensified, with the investigation involving Jerome Powell adding to market anxiety. Prices pushed beyond the $4,600-an-ounce threshold for the first time, with spot gold reaching $4,601.17 and futures climbing to $4,612.40 an ounce.

Silver has continued its own remarkable rally, also setting fresh records at $84.653 an ounce in spot trading. The metal advanced by almost 150% during 2025. “We expect the deficit in the silver market to continue throughout 2026, mainly due to increasing investment demand,” said BMI, part of Fitch Solutions, noting that strong industrial demand has further constrained physical supply to historic lows.

“The performance of precious metals is a reminder of how much uncertainty markets are facing—geopolitics, the debate over growth and rates, and now a new institutional risk driven by headlines,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore.

These comments come against the backdrop of Powell’s disclosure of a criminal investigation tied to his role in the $2.5 billion renovation of the Federal Reserve’s Washington headquarters and the testimony he provided to Congress.

Powell responded sharply, arguing that the potential indictment “should be seen in the broader context of ongoing threats and pressure from the administration” aimed at shaping central bank interest-rate decisions. Repeated attacks on the Federal Reserve by the Trump administration last year weighed on the dollar and helped fuel gold’s ascent.

Safe-haven demand has also been boosted by escalating unrest in Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he was weighing multiple options in response to developments in Iran, while again raising the prospect of seizing Greenland and questioning the value of NATO, just over a week after detaining Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

At the same time, the U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on Trump’s tariff policy on Wednesday. A decision against the measures would strike at the core of the president’s economic agenda and represent his most significant legal setback since returning to office.

Against this backdrop, precious metals are increasingly seen as being in the midst of a structural bull market, supported by several powerful tailwinds. Falling U.S. interest rates, rising geopolitical tensions, eroding confidence in the dollar and growing challenges to the Federal Reserve’s independence have all combined to drive sustained demand. More than a dozen fund managers have indicated they have no plans to materially reduce gold exposure, underlining strong long-term conviction.

Thibaut Dorlet and Johann Mauchand, CFA Senior Multi-Asset Fund Managers, argue that gold’s expanding role within portfolios “is no longer just a hedge.” While it continues to act as an “insurance” against weakening stock-bond correlations and a more fragile geopolitical environment, they say gold is increasingly being treated as a “ real asset allocation choice .”

One of the most important structural forces behind this shift, they note, is “ central bank reallocations from the dollar to gold, ” which “are providing presumably long-lasting support, a development that is only weakly price-sensitive.” The People’s Bank of China, for example, officially holds just 7.7% of its reserves in gold. A move toward the roughly 20% average among G10 central banks would imply close to 3,300 tonnes of additional purchases — equivalent to several years of accumulation, according to Bloomberg.

The broader macroeconomic landscape “has changed profoundly,” they add. “Persistently low real rates, expansionary fiscal policies and growing questions around public debt sustainability reinforce the need to hold an asset independent of any sovereign entity. Gold is becoming a high-conviction asset and a natural balancer in portfolios.”

They also point to “the expanding access channels to gold investments,” which have “amplified these dynamics.” In particular, the rise of ETFs has made it easier for a broad range of investors — retail, private and institutional — to gain exposure to gold.

Dorlet and Mauchand conclude that “recent moves highlight a structural reallocation, rather than mere speculation, toward an asset that has become a strategic pillar. Today, gold combines two essential roles: acting as a buffer in times of stress and serving as a driver of diversification in volatile markets.” In an increasingly fragmented global environment, gold stands out as “ one of the few assets capable of offering independence from sovereign risk , resilience in times of recession , and a potentially attractive risk/return profile .”

The U.S. dollar came under renewed selling pressure during European trading on Monday after prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, reviving concerns that political forces may be encroaching on the central bank’s independence.

By 04:25 ET (09:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was down 0.4% at 98.460, putting it on track to end a five-session run of gains.

Powell at the centre of legal and political tension

The greenback moved lower after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Trump administration had threatened him with criminal charges related to testimony he delivered to Congress last summer on cost overruns linked to a Federal Reserve building renovation.

“This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions — or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation,” Powell said.

The comments mark a fresh escalation in the long-running clash between President Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve, heightening investor unease over the institution’s autonomy.

Strategists at ING warned that further signs of interference could weigh heavily on the dollar. “The downside risks for the dollar from any indications of further determination to interfere with the Fed’s independence are substantial,” the bank said.

“Once again, the bond market will be the key gauge, both at the front end of the curve if investors price in additional rate cuts, and at the long end if concerns about independence trigger stress. A sharp steepening of the curve could drive the dollar lower.”

Markets are now looking ahead to Tuesday’s release of the U.S. consumer price index for December, one of the final major data points before the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later this month.

“We would have held a moderately bullish stance on the dollar this week, as we expect U.S. core CPI to exceed consensus at 0.4% month-on-month,” ING added. However, the bank noted that “markets need greater clarity on this explosive Fed development before rebuilding long dollar positions.”

Euro, sterling and franc advance

European currencies gained ground as the dollar retreated. The euro rose 0.5% to 1.1690, rebounding from a one-month low amid broad-based greenback weakness.

With few major eurozone data releases scheduled and little sign of dissent among European Central Bank policymakers, currency moves were largely driven by developments in the United States.

“We still think EUR/USD could test 1.1600 in the near term if Fed risks fade,” ING said. “But for now, markets may need significant reassurance, and we prefer a bullish bias toward 1.1700–1.1750 today.”

Sterling also strengthened, with GBP/USD up 0.5% at 1.3464, while the Swiss franc outperformed. USD/CHF slid 0.7% to 0.7959.

“The Swiss franc is the strongest-performing G10 currency this morning, reinforcing its status as a preferred hedge against Fed independence risk,” ING added.

Asian currencies follow suit

In Asia, USD/JPY dipped 0.1% to 157.81, with the yen supported by the softer dollar, although trading volumes were muted due to a public holiday in Japan.

The pair also retreated from a one-year high after the leader of a coalition partner of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said a snap election could be held on February 8 or 15.

Elsewhere, USD/CNY edged slightly lower to 6.9746, while AUD/USD rose 0.3% to 0.6703, as even risk-sensitive currencies found support against a broadly weaker U.S. dollar.