ADVFN UK Market News

Author: Fiona Craig

  • Gold slips as stronger dollar and inflation concerns weigh on demand

    Gold slips as stronger dollar and inflation concerns weigh on demand

    Gold prices edged lower on Monday, pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar after ceasefire negotiations between Washington and Tehran failed to deliver progress, prompting investors to shift toward the greenback as a safe-haven asset.

    The metal was also dragged down by robust U.S. inflation data released on Friday, which dampened expectations for near-term interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

    Spot gold declined 0.6% to $4,720.67 per ounce as of 01:06 ET (05:06 GMT), while gold futures dropped 0.9% to $4,743.20 per ounce.

    Other precious metals weakened as well, with spot platinum easing to $2,047.06 per ounce and spot silver falling nearly 2% to $74.3975 per ounce.

    Dollar strengthens as U.S.-Iran tensions persist

    The U.S. dollar index rose around 0.4%, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets after talks between the U.S. and Iran ended without meaningful breakthroughs.

    Extended discussions held in Pakistan over the weekend failed to ease tensions, with disagreements continuing over Iran’s nuclear program, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran’s backing of militant groups across the Middle East.

    U.S. President Donald Trump responded by ordering a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, later clarifying that the action would be directed specifically at Iranian ports and vessels.

    The blockade, set to begin at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT), raises the risk of further escalation. Iran has strongly opposed the move.

    Inflation pressures add to gold’s downside

    Gold also came under pressure following U.S. consumer price data showing a notable rise in inflation in March, largely driven by higher energy costs linked to the conflict.

    Annual CPI increased to 3.3% in March, slightly below forecasts of 3.4% but significantly higher than the 2.4% recorded in February.

    The data intensified concerns that elevated oil and gas prices—driven by the conflict—could push inflation higher globally. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for energy shipments, has remained largely closed since late February, and the planned U.S. blockade further dims prospects for a near-term reopening.

    Following the CPI release, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts over the coming year were scaled back further, according to CME FedWatch data. This outlook tends to weigh on gold and other non-yielding assets, as higher interest rates reduce their appeal.

    Concerns about prolonged elevated rates have overshadowed gold’s traditional role as a safe haven, while the metal’s strong rally into late 2025 has also limited fresh buying interest.

    U.S. producer price index data is due later this week.

  • Markets slip on Hormuz tensions as oil rises; Goldman Sachs results in focus: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures

    Markets slip on Hormuz tensions as oil rises; Goldman Sachs results in focus: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures

    U.S. equity futures pointed lower at the start of the week, as concerns over a potential naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and stalled talks between Washington and Tehran dampened investor sentiment. Oil prices climbed back above $100 per barrel, with markets questioning how long the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire can hold. Attention is also turning to upcoming earnings from Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), which will help kick off the U.S. reporting season, alongside results from LVMH (EU:MC).

    Futures point to a weaker open

    U.S. stock futures declined on Monday as investors weighed renewed geopolitical risks after President Donald Trump warned of a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following unsuccessful weekend negotiations with Iran.

    At 03:28 ET, Dow futures were down 239 points, or 0.5%, S&P 500 futures fell 40 points, or 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 168 points, or 0.7%. European and Asian markets also traded unevenly, while oil prices surged and the dollar strengthened.

    Wall Street had finished Friday on a mixed note, as investors remained cautious ahead of the high-stakes discussions in Pakistan. A temporary two-week ceasefire was agreed last week, but doubts remain over whether it can evolve into a lasting peace.

    Traders are also digesting inflation data showing a sharp rise in consumer prices in March, driven largely by higher gasoline costs tied to the energy shock from the conflict. Oil has rallied since late February, when tensions escalated and tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz—responsible for roughly one-fifth of global oil flows—were severely disrupted.

    Trump signals move on Hormuz

    On Sunday, Trump said the U.S. Navy would impose an “immediate” blockade of the Strait to restrict shipping.

    He warned that vessels paying tolls imposed by Tehran would not be assured “safe passage on the high seas.”

    The Pentagon later clarified that restrictions would apply to ships “entering or departing Iranian ports or coastal areas,” while other vessels would still be permitted to pass through the Strait.

    The announcement follows 21 hours of talks between U.S. and Iranian officials in Pakistan, which ended without an agreement to extend the ceasefire. Vice President JD Vance, who led the U.S. delegation, said Iran had rejected demands to curb its nuclear program. Tehran has yet to respond publicly, while Pakistan—acting as mediator—urged both sides to “uphold their commitment to ceasefire.”

    Oil reclaims $100 level

    Crude prices surged again on Monday, pushing back above the $100 threshold.

    Brent crude rose 6.7% to $101.65, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 7.1% to $103.42.

    Despite the rally, analysts at Pepperstone described the market response as “relatively contained,” suggesting investors see the blockade as part of a negotiating strategy.

    “While it’s clearly a risk-averse start to the trading week, […] the general market reaction can be summed up as ‘could be worse’,” said Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone.

    Oil had slipped below $100 last week following the ceasefire announcement, which came after Trump warned Iran’s “civilization” could be destroyed if the Strait remained closed. Even so, prices remain elevated compared to pre-conflict levels.

    Goldman Sachs earnings ahead

    Focus now shifts to results from major U.S. banks, starting with Goldman Sachs ahead of the opening bell.

    Shares in Goldman have risen about 3% year-to-date, supported by strong trading volumes as investors reposition portfolios amid the rise of artificial intelligence. Its investment banking division has also shown resilience.

    However, the conflict in Iran could overshadow the results. While market volatility can boost trading income, persistently high commodity prices may discourage companies from pursuing large deals such as mergers and acquisitions, potentially weighing on advisory revenues.

    Other major banks reporting this week include JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS).

    LVMH to report

    LVMH (EU:MC), the world’s largest luxury goods company and owner of brands such as Louis Vuitton and Dior, is set to release first-quarter sales later today, with the Middle East conflict likely to influence its outlook.

    According to Reuters, luxury sales in hubs such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi have weakened due to the conflict, affecting companies like LVMH as well as rivals including Kering SA (EU:KER) and Hermès (EU:RMS).

    At Dubai’s Mall of the Emirates, luxury sales reportedly dropped by as much as 50% in March, while footfall at Dubai Mall fell by a similar margin. In Abu Dhabi’s Galleria mall, overall sales declined by around 10%.

    Although the Middle East accounts for a relatively small share of LVMH’s revenue, analysts cited by Reuters believe the impact on profitability—reported on a half-year basis—could be more pronounced.

  • European equities slip as Hormuz blockade threat and failed Iran talks unsettle markets: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European equities slip as Hormuz blockade threat and failed Iran talks unsettle markets: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European stock markets started the week on a weaker footing, as investors reacted to the collapse of weekend negotiations between the U.S. and Iran and renewed tensions following President Donald Trump’s warning of an “immediate” blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

    By 07:13 GMT, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index was down 0.8%. Germany’s DAX had fallen 1.2%, France’s CAC 40 declined 1.0%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 dropped 0.6%.

    Trump said on Sunday that the U.S. would move to restrict vessels entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route that has become a focal point in the Middle East conflict. He cautioned that any ship paying a toll imposed by Tehran would not be guaranteed “safe passage on the high seas.”

    Later, the Pentagon clarified that the restrictions would apply specifically to ships “entering or departing Iranian ports or coastal areas,” while other vessels would still be able to pass through the Strait. Around 20% of global oil supply flows through this narrow passage off Iran’s southern coast.

    “[T]he language seemed to soften what the president posted,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note to clients. “What initially looked like a complete halt to all traffic now looks like it is focused only on Iranian vessels.”

    At the same time, The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is considering limited military strikes against Iran, which analysts suggested may indicate that the administration could be “pivoting away aggressively from a resumption” of the broader bombing campaign that had been ongoing since late February.

    These developments follow 21 hours of talks between U.S. and Iranian officials in Pakistan, which ended without securing a longer-term ceasefire beyond the current two-week pause in hostilities.

    Market participants are now turning their attention to upcoming Eurozone inflation data later this week, which may shed light on how the conflict is influencing price pressures. Europe relies heavily on energy imports from the Persian Gulf, including natural gas from Qatar, where infrastructure has been affected by the expanding conflict.

    The European Central Bank has indicated it is closely monitoring inflation risks linked to the situation. Interest rate futures currently suggest expectations of around three 25-basis-point rate increases by the ECB through the end of 2026, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters.

    Oil markets reacted strongly, with Brent crude climbing back above $100 per barrel after briefly falling below that level last week following the announcement of a temporary ceasefire.

    In corporate news, shares of Kering SA (EU:KER) resumed trading after being briefly halted following a drop of more than 3% in early dealings. Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to “equal weight” from “overweight,” noting that much of the expected turnaround appears already reflected in the share price.

    Elsewhere, travel and leisure stocks across Europe were under pressure, while Italian energy company Eni (BIT:ENI) and defence group Leonardo (BIT:LDO) both posted gains.

  • Energy shares advance globally as oil pushes back above $100 on Hormuz tensions

    Energy shares advance globally as oil pushes back above $100 on Hormuz tensions

    Global oil and gas stocks moved higher on Monday as crude prices climbed past the $100-per-barrel mark, following U.S. action to restrict maritime activity linked to Iran in the Strait of Hormuz after negotiations between Washington and Tehran broke down.

    Brent crude rose 7.3% to $102.16 per barrel by 08:35 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate jumped roughly 8% to $104.24. Both benchmarks had ended the previous session lower before rebounding sharply.

    The surge in oil prices lifted energy equities across major markets. In the U.S., ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) each gained more than 2% in premarket trading, while ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) rose 3.4% and Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) added 3.1%.

    Across Europe, BP plc (LSE:BP.) and Shell plc (LSE:SHEL) both climbed around 1.4%, while TotalEnergies (EU:TTE) edged up 1.3% and Repsol (BIT:1REP) gained roughly 2%.

    U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the Navy would move to enforce a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions after prolonged talks with Iran failed to yield an agreement and putting a fragile two-week ceasefire at risk. He also cautioned that fuel prices could remain elevated through the November midterm elections.

    U.S. Central Command confirmed the measure would take effect at 10 a.m. ET on Monday, targeting vessels traveling to and from Iranian ports in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. However, ships transiting the Strait between non-Iranian ports would not be affected, according to CENTCOM.

    The latest escalation follows a brief period of calm after a ceasefire had allowed shipping routes to reopen, sending oil prices sharply lower last week before the current rebound.

    Rabobank energy strategist Joe DeLaura had warned during last week’s dip that markets were underestimating risks, arguing that futures were “far too optimistic” and that there was “so much risk to the upside” still not reflected in prices.

    “There’s permanent production loss from the shut ins in Saudi, Kuwait, UAE and Iraq. Refinery and pipeline damage plus the physical restart times, on top of the backlog of 800+ tankers trapped on the west side of the Strait,” he told Investing.com.

    “Brent futures seem to have a floor around $90, and I think no ceasefire (no easy opening of a mined strait of Hormuz) means that futures will eventually have to start matching physical markets around $120-130/bbl (or more!).”

  • European airline stocks drop as oil prices surge following U.S. move against Iran

    European airline stocks drop as oil prices surge following U.S. move against Iran

    European airline shares declined sharply on Monday, falling between 2.7% and 7.7%, as a spike in oil prices added pressure to the sector. Brent crude climbed 8% to $102.78 per barrel by 09:00 GMT, weighing on carriers such as Ryanair (NASDAQ:RYAAY), International Airlines Group (LSE:IAG), Lufthansa (TG:LHA), Air France-KLM (EU:AF), easyJet (LSE:EZJ) and Wizz Air (LSE:WIZZ).

    During the session, Brent reached an intraday peak of $103.49 per barrel, while U.S. benchmark WTI rose 7.2% to $96.03.

    The move in oil markets followed an order from U.S. President Donald Trump directing the Navy to impose a blockade on Iranian ports after ceasefire negotiations with Iran broke down over the weekend in Pakistan.

    According to U.S. Central Command, the blockade targeting maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports was scheduled to begin at 10:00 ET on Monday. The measure is more limited than earlier proposals to block all vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

    The U.S. delegation in Pakistan was led by Vice President JD Vance, who departed early on Sunday after 21 hours of talks failed to produce an agreement.

    Key sticking points included Iran’s nuclear programme, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran’s backing of proxy groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.

    Iran signalled it does not intend to resume nuclear discussions with Washington, while Trump indicated he was unconcerned about whether negotiations restart.

    Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that governments in the Middle East are attempting to facilitate further dialogue between the United States and Iran.

    Iran has restricted access through the Strait of Hormuz since late February, disrupting roughly 20% of global oil supply and contributing to ongoing volatility in energy markets.

  • Kering falls after Morgan Stanley downgrade as Gucci concerns persist

    Kering falls after Morgan Stanley downgrade as Gucci concerns persist

    Kering SA (EU:KER) shares dropped more than 3% after Morgan Stanley lowered its recommendation on the stock, shifting its rating from “overweight” to “equal-weight” and trimming its 12–18 month price target to €320 from €330. The bank pointed to limited further upside following strong share price performance earlier in the year, which it believes is now largely reflected in the valuation.

    The stock had reached a year-to-date peak of €320.50 on 12 January before falling around 16% by Monday. Since the start of the year, it has still outperformed peers including LVMH, Hermès and Richemont by roughly 300 to 1,700 basis points.

    After surging 10.90% on 10 February—its largest single-day gain of the period—the shares gave back much of those gains during a sharp sell-off in early March, declining 5.04% and 6.35% on 2 and 3 March respectively.

    Morgan Stanley’s discounted cash flow model suggests around 15% upside to the revised target price, though the bank no longer views this as sufficient to justify outperformance.

    “Our DCF implies 15% upside to the shares, which no longer translates into relative outperformance,” the note stated.

    Based on the bank’s updated 2028 earnings per share forecast of €15.97—down 4% from previous estimates but still 15% above the Visible Alpha consensus of €13.80—the stock is trading at about 17 times forward earnings.

    The analysts expect group revenue to reach €18.3 billion by 2028, representing roughly 25% cumulative growth from €14.7 billion in 2025. Over the same period, operating margin is projected to expand from 12.5% in 2026 to 18.4% in 2028, while EPS is forecast to rise from €6.81 to €15.97.

    The downward revisions were attributed to weaker-than-anticipated channel checks in the first quarter of 2026 and exposure to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which accounts for around 5% of group sales.

    Morgan Stanley now expects Gucci, Kering’s largest brand, to post a 6.2% decline in the first quarter of 2026, compared with a previous estimate of a 5% drop. Gucci is projected to generate €5.95 billion in revenue in 2026, increasing to €7.67 billion by 2028.

    In a more optimistic scenario, the bank values the shares at €480, assuming a strong revival cycle at Gucci and group operating margins reaching 25.9% by 2028. In contrast, the downside case sees the stock at €175, based on the risk that Gucci’s new direction fails to gain traction commercially. Options pricing suggests a roughly 28.9% probability that the shares exceed €320 over the next 12 months, versus a 17.1% chance of falling below €175.

    Morgan Stanley highlighted two key triggers that could shift its stance more positively: continued organisational changes following the appointment of Luca de Meo as CEO in September 2025, and clearer evidence of a sustained turnaround at Gucci.

    The analysts described Gucci’s situation as “a classic case where improving buzz is running ahead of the hard numbers,” adding that channel checks across European retailers show “early signs of improving brand buzz but little evidence yet of a meaningful commercial recovery.”

  • National Grid expects modest EPS impact from regulatory and storm costs

    National Grid expects modest EPS impact from regulatory and storm costs

    National Grid plc (LSE:NG.) said trading remains in line with expectations and consistent with guidance provided at its interim results, though it now anticipates a small reduction to earnings.

    The company expects an approximately 1p per share impact on underlying earnings, driven by customer refund charges related to the 19 March ruling by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) concerning its New England Transmission operations. Additional pressure has come from higher-than-expected storm-related costs in its US business.

    These factors are partly offset by slightly lower finance costs, helping to limit the overall effect on earnings.

    National Grid is scheduled to report its full-year results on 14 May. Shares were down around 0.7% in early trading following the update.

    More about National Grid

    National Grid plc is a FTSE 100-listed utility company focused on the transmission and distribution of electricity and gas across the UK and the United States. It operates critical energy infrastructure, connecting generation sources to homes and businesses while supporting the transition to cleaner energy systems.

  • Wise grows volumes and income while advancing Nasdaq dual listing plans

    Wise grows volumes and income while advancing Nasdaq dual listing plans

    Wise plc (LSE:WISE) reported strong momentum across its core money transfer and account services, with quarterly cross-border volumes increasing 26% year-on-year to £49.4 billion and active customers rising 22% to 11.3 million.

    Customer balances held within Wise accounts grew 37% to £29.4 billion, while underlying income for the quarter climbed 24% to £435.3 million. Growth was supported by increased adoption of account features and a notable rise in instant transfers, which improved by 10 percentage points.

    For the full fiscal year 2026, Wise expanded its active customer base by 21% to 18.9 million, driving a 25% increase in annual cross-border volumes to £181.7 billion. Underlying income rose 18% to approximately £1.61 billion. The company also highlighted strong performance in its business segment and expects its underlying profit before tax margin to land toward the upper end of its 13% to 16% target range.

    Wise confirmed it is progressing with plans for a dual listing, intending to shift its primary listing to Nasdaq while maintaining a secondary listing in London. The transition, which will involve reporting in U.S. dollars under U.S. GAAP, is designed to enhance visibility in the U.S.—its largest addressable market—and provide access to deeper capital pools, potentially strengthening its competitive positioning in global payments.

    From an outlook perspective, the company is supported by strong financial performance, including robust growth, profitability, and solid cash generation. Positive sentiment around customer expansion and transaction volumes further underpins the investment case. However, valuation remains relatively elevated, with a price-to-earnings ratio of around 25.7 and no dividend yield, while technical indicators present a mixed picture, including negative momentum signals and an elevated RSI.

    More about Wise PLC

    Wise plc is a global financial technology company specialising in low-cost international payments and multi-currency account services for both individuals and businesses. Through its Wise Account and Wise Business offerings, users can hold and manage more than 40 currencies, send money internationally, and spend abroad. The company also provides infrastructure solutions that enable banks and enterprises to integrate cross-border payment capabilities into their own platforms.

  • Concurrent Technologies delivers strong growth and record orders amid defence demand

    Concurrent Technologies delivers strong growth and record orders amid defence demand

    Concurrent Technologies plc (LSE:CNC) reported another year of solid expansion in 2025, driven by rising demand for high-performance computing solutions in defence and other mission-critical sectors.

    The company continues to secure long-term design wins with major global defence contractors across Europe and Asia-Pacific. Growth has been supported by increased manufacturing capacity in the UK and the addition of a new advanced facility in Los Angeles, strengthening its international footprint.

    For the year ended 31 December 2025, revenue increased 14% to £45.9 million, while profit before tax rose 25% to £6.5 million. EBITDA grew 29%, and the business recorded a record £47 million in orders, providing strong visibility over future revenues. Performance was underpinned by steady progress in the core Products division and rapid expansion in the Systems segment, supported by design services and the company’s largest contract to date, valued at $6.2 million. Concurrent ended the year with £14.4 million in cash, positioning it to meet market expectations for 2026 despite broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

    From an investment standpoint, strong financial performance—particularly in revenue growth and cash generation—supports the company’s outlook. However, technical indicators suggest some bearish momentum, and a relatively high price-to-earnings ratio raises valuation concerns. Recent corporate activity presents a mixed picture, with positive contract momentum offset by potential negative sentiment linked to a CEO share sale.

    More about Concurrent Technologies

    Concurrent Technologies plc is a UK-based designer and manufacturer of high-performance embedded computing systems. Its products include plug-in computer cards and integrated systems used in long lifecycle, mission-critical applications. Leveraging technologies such as Intel Xeon, Core, and Atom processors, and built to open standards like VPX and SOSA, its solutions are deployed across global markets including telecommunications, defence, aerospace, security, and scientific research, often in demanding operating environments.

  • Polar Capital grows AuM 43% as technology and AI strategies attract inflows

    Polar Capital grows AuM 43% as technology and AI strategies attract inflows

    Polar Capital Holdings plc (LSE:POLR) reported a strong increase in assets under management (AuM), reaching £30.6 billion as of 31 March 2026—up 8% over the quarter and 43% across the full financial year.

    The growth was supported by £1.4 billion of net inflows during the quarter alongside solid investment performance, despite some modest fund closures. Inflows were broadly distributed across the firm’s strategies, with particularly strong demand for Global Technology and Artificial Intelligence funds. Additional contributions came from healthcare and other specialist strategies, while outflows were limited to select North American, Global Insurance, and Asian funds.

    Chief executive Iain Evans noted that the firm entered 2026 with continued positive inflow momentum, which extended into April, although inflows softened in March amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. He highlighted that increasing market volatility and rapid technological change—particularly driven by AI—are reinforcing the case for specialist active management, positioning Polar Capital to capture future opportunities. The company is scheduled to report full-year results on 1 July 2026.

    From an outlook perspective, Polar Capital benefits from strong financial performance, effective cash flow management, and relatively low leverage, all of which support its investment case. Strategic progress and record AuM levels further strengthen its market position. Technical indicators suggest a neutral trend, with no clear short-term directional signals.

    More about Polar Capital Holdings

    Polar Capital Holdings plc is a UK-based specialist asset manager focused on active investment strategies. The firm manages a range of open-ended funds, investment trusts, and segregated mandates, with expertise spanning thematic and sector-driven approaches. Its key areas of focus include technology, healthcare, smart energy, and various regional and absolute return strategies, serving wealth managers and private banking clients across Europe and Asia.