Author: Fiona Craig

  • OCBC lowers 2026 outlook for gold and silver amid stronger dollar and higher yields

    OCBC lowers 2026 outlook for gold and silver amid stronger dollar and higher yields

    OCBC has revised down its end-2026 forecasts for gold and silver, citing rising real bond yields, a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker investment demand as near-term headwinds. Even so, the bank believes the longer-term fundamentals for precious metals remain intact.

    Forecasts revised lower

    The bank now expects gold (USD/XAU) to finish 2026 at US$4,360 per ounce, down from its previous estimate of US$5,100, while its silver (USD/XAG) target has been reduced to US$67 per ounce from US$89.50.

    OCBC stressed that the revisions reflect short-term macroeconomic challenges rather than a reversal of its bullish long-term outlook.

    Higher real rates continue to weigh on precious metals

    According to the bank, rising real yields, renewed dollar strength and increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve expectations have significantly reduced investor appetite for non-income-producing assets such as gold.

    OCBC forecasts gold will average US$4,180 per ounce by September 2026 before climbing to US$4,820 by September 2027. Silver is expected to rise from US$64 to US$74 per ounce over the same period.

    Gold and silver extend recent weakness

    Gold prices continued to decline on Tuesday, with spot gold down 0.7% and gold futures falling 1%. Silver lost 1.4%, while platinum declined 1%.

    Long-term fundamentals remain intact

    OCBC said central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainty, fiscal risks and demand for portfolio diversification continue to support gold over the medium term.

    However, it warned that these structural drivers are currently being overshadowed by elevated real yields and slowing ETF inflows.

    The bank compared the current environment with the 2013 “taper tantrum,” when higher real yields led to a significant correction in gold before the Federal Reserve started raising rates.

    OCBC also retained a positive long-term view on silver, highlighting structural supply shortages and industrial demand from solar energy, electrification and electronics.

    Nevertheless, weaker ETF demand, higher real yields and subdued investor sentiment continue to create short-term downside risks.

    The bank said softer U.S. inflation, weaker employment data or a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve could improve the outlook for precious metals, while persistent inflation and stronger economic data could delay any sustained recovery.

  • JPMorgan sees AI chip stocks facing new challenges as cloud giants improve returns

    JPMorgan sees AI chip stocks facing new challenges as cloud giants improve returns

    Gap between chipmakers and hyperscalers may narrow

    JPMorgan believes the prolonged outperformance of artificial intelligence semiconductor companies over hyperscale cloud providers is unlikely to persist indefinitely, arguing that the current performance gap could become increasingly difficult to justify.

    In a research note, analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou described two potential outcomes that could bring the two sectors closer together.

    Better AI monetization could benefit hyperscalers

    Under JPMorgan’s preferred scenario, hyperscalers, AI model developers and corporate users generate stronger revenues and profits from artificial intelligence investments.

    The bank said this would enable them to “catch up, capturing a bigger share of the overall AI value-added pie.”

    Alternatively, if semiconductor companies continue to capture a disproportionate share of AI spending, the resulting pressure on customers’ profitability could “start to depress capex intentions” and “eventually act as a headwind to demand for the semiconductor companies’ products.”

    Capital spending outlook remains a key risk

    While JPMorgan continues to favour the more constructive scenario, it pointed out that many analysts expect hyperscaler capital expenditure growth to slow sharply from next year.

    The bank noted that this consensus, “taken at face value would tilt towards the negative scenario.”

    Extended rally leaves semiconductor sector exposed

    AI chipmakers and memory producers have consistently outperformed hyperscalers since September, according to JPMorgan.

    Although the trend has rewarded investors, the bank warned that the sector could become more vulnerable if expectations for future AI investment begin to cool.

    Broader market observations

    JPMorgan also forecasts U.S. money creation to rise from $1.6 trillion in 2025 to $1.8 trillion in 2026.

    Separately, the bank cautioned that MicroStrategy has “introduced avoidable two-way risk into crypto markets inducing more uncertainty and volatility.”

  • Global M&A reaches record highs as mega-deals reshape corporate landscape

    Global M&A reaches record highs as mega-deals reshape corporate landscape

    Deal values surge despite fewer transactions

    Global mergers and acquisitions activity posted a record-breaking first half of 2026, fuelled by a wave of transformational mega-deals as companies took advantage of improved regulatory conditions and readily available financing to pursue long-term strategic growth.

    LSEG data showed announced transactions totalled $2.8 trillion during the first six months of the year, up 48% from the same period in 2025 and the strongest year-to-date performance since records began in 1980.

    While deal values climbed sharply, overall activity slowed. Approximately 24,000 transactions were announced during the period, down 9% year over year and marking the weakest first-half deal count in six years.

    Large transactions dominate the market

    The M&A market was overwhelmingly driven by blockbuster acquisitions.

    According to LSEG, 47 deals valued above $10 billion were announced during the first half, representing more than $1.3 trillion in combined value. Those transactions accounted for nearly half of total global M&A value, setting a new record for the contribution made by mega-deals.

    Notable transactions included NextEra Energy’s (NYSE:NEE) $66.8 billion acquisition of Dominion Energy (NYSE:D) and SpaceX’s (NASDAQ:SPCX) approximately $60 billion acquisition of Cursor.

    “Corporates have shown tremendous resilience in the face of geopolitical, monetary, macroeconomic, and even microeconomic volatility,” said Jay Hofmann, JPMorgan’s North America co-head of mergers and acquisitions.

    He added that financing “is available in size,” enabling companies to secure strategic assets that will help them “to navigate change and put themselves in the best position for the future.”

    Companies prioritise scale and strategic growth

    Advisers say corporate executives are increasingly focused on pursuing transformational acquisitions rather than smaller transactions.

    Ivan Farman, co-head of Global M&A at Bank of America, said companies recognise that completing a $1 billion transaction often requires a similar level of effort as negotiating a much larger acquisition.

    “Reflects a growing view that a $1 billion to $3 billion deal takes just as much time as a larger one, so when an opportunity for a big transaction arises, companies see this as the moment to act.”

    According to bankers, investors continue rewarding businesses that expand their competitive advantages through greater scale and strategic focus.

    “Bigger companies that have bigger moats and a bigger competitive advantage are trading at much better multiples than smaller companies,” Farman said.

    “Long held aspirational or dream deals are now being actively rallied around, with CEOs and management teams pushing them forward to their boards.”

    Regulatory shifts encourage confidence

    Many dealmakers believe global M&A activity could eventually exceed the post-pandemic boom recorded in 2021 as governments become more receptive to major corporate combinations.

    European policymakers are considering reforms designed to encourage the creation of regional industrial champions, while investment bankers believe the Trump administration is more willing to approve large-scale mergers in the United States.

    Meanwhile, proposed changes to Japan’s corporate governance code are expected to encourage cash-rich companies to deploy capital more aggressively through acquisitions.

    “Momentum has actually started to accelerate behind the scenes over the last six weeks with a growing pipeline of cross-border, strategic deals,” said Jan Weber, Morgan Stanley’s head of mergers and acquisitions for Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

    “It feels like a lot of the indicators are on green for more M&A and boards feel that they need to act. I do think we are working towards the next peak,” Weber added.

    Ed Wittig, Goldman Sachs’ co-head of Asia Pacific mergers and acquisitions, said businesses remain focused on expanding through strategic combinations.

    “There’s strong enthusiasm around synergies, and markets are rewarding those that execute well,” he said.

    Corporate breakups gain momentum

    Restructuring activity has also accelerated as companies streamline operations and sharpen their strategic focus.

    Among the most significant announcements were Comcast’s (NASDAQ:CMCSA) planned separation of NBCUniversal, Honeywell’s (NASDAQ:HON) proposed three-way split and the sale of Unilever Foods to McCormick & Co (NYSE:MCK).

    “The market is struggling more than ever to embrace businesses that are inordinately diversified,” said Akeel Sachak, global head of consumer at Rothschild & Co.

    “There was an era where diversity was applauded as a way of mitigating risk, but nowadays investors are more cautious because it creates undue complexity and a lack of focus from management.”

    Technology remains the centre of dealmaking

    Robust financing conditions continued supporting acquisition activity throughout the first half of the year.

    Global issuance of investment-grade corporate debt reached $3.4 trillion, up 10% year over year and the highest first-half total ever recorded by LSEG.

    Technology remained the largest sector for mergers and acquisitions, generating $649 billion in announced transactions.

    “AI or AI adjacent industries are one half of the equation, particularly in the U.S. The other half is the HALO side, heavy assets, low obsolescence, big infrastructure and big industry that will continue no matter what impact AI has,” said Sam Newhouse, global vice chair of Latham & Watkins’ M&A and Private Equity Practice.

    Cross-border activity continues to strengthen

    International dealmaking also recorded its strongest opening to a year since 2018.

    Cross-border transactions totalled $893 billion during the first half of 2026, representing a 62% increase from a year earlier.

    The United States remained the leading destination for overseas acquirers, accounting for around 25% of all cross-border transactions, while the United Kingdom ranked second.

    “There are a lot more UK corporates looking outward as well rather than just the UK being taken out,” said Kirshlen Moodley, head of UK M&A for BNP Paribas.

  • OCBC lowers Brent outlook as improving Middle East supply eases market concerns (OCBC)

    OCBC lowers Brent outlook as improving Middle East supply eases market concerns (OCBC)

    OCBC Group Research has revised down its Brent crude price forecasts through the second quarter of 2027, arguing that the recovery in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has reduced supply concerns and shifted market attention back towards the prospect of excess global production.

    Brent price expectations reduced

    The bank now forecasts Brent crude will average $75 per barrel in both the third and fourth quarters of 2026, compared with previous estimates of $85 and $80, respectively.

    Its outlook for the first quarter of 2027 has been lowered to $73 per barrel from $75, while the second-quarter 2027 forecast has been cut to $71 per barrel from $75.

    In a research note, OCBC strategists said, “Shipping traffic—and thus oil flows—through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up following the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding.”

    They added, “Expectations of normalized flows quickly pushed crude prices back to pre-conflict levels, reviving the oversupply narrative.”

    Crude prices remain under pressure

    Oil markets extended their recent losses on Thursday, with Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) both falling to their lowest levels in four months.

    By 06:54 GMT, Brent crude was trading 1.1% lower at $70.80 per barrel, while WTI had declined 1.5% to $67.58 per barrel. Both benchmarks had also fallen by more than 1% during the previous session.

    The latest weakness followed comments from Qatari officials indicating that indirect discussions between the United States and Iran had made progress regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

    A spokesperson for Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs wrote on X that negotiations had delivered “positive progress” on matters linked to the memorandum of understanding that ended the June conflict, although no breakthrough towards a permanent peace agreement was announced.

    OCBC also trims precious metals forecasts

    The research house also lowered its outlook for gold and silver prices this week.

    OCBC now expects gold to reach $4,360 per ounce by the end of 2026, down from its previous forecast of $5,100, while its silver forecast was reduced to $67 per ounce from $89.50.

    According to the bank, higher real interest rates, a stronger U.S. dollar and increasingly hawkish expectations for Federal Reserve policy have weakened demand for precious metals.

    Despite the revisions, OCBC maintained its positive long-term outlook, forecasting gold to average $4,180 per ounce by September 2026 before rising to $4,820 by September 2027. The bank also expects silver to increase from $64 to $74 per ounce over the same period.

  • Gold slump accelerates as rising yields and stronger dollar weigh on prices

    Gold slump accelerates as rising yields and stronger dollar weigh on prices

    Gold prices are approaching their weakest quarterly performance in more than a decade after falling roughly 24% from January’s record highs, as higher real interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar continue to pressure investor demand.

    The August Gold Futures contract was trading at US$4,031.70 on Tuesday, leaving bullion on track for its largest quarterly decline since April 2013.

    Investors favour downside protection

    Market sentiment has deteriorated as traders increasingly hedge against additional losses.

    For the first time since 2016, gold’s put/call skew has turned positive, signalling stronger demand for downside protection than for upside exposure.

    Goldman Sachs commodities executive Samantha Dart described the shift as a significant change in positioning but argued that the longer-term investment case remains intact.

    “Gold is not done,” she wrote in a note published on 29 June. “We continue to see further upside, driven by both structural and eventually cyclical factors. Structurally, EM central bank diversification — following the 2022 freezing of Russia’s reserves — remains the anchor of our $4,900/toz end 2026 forecast.”

    Central bank demand continues to underpin the market

    An OMFIF survey found that more central banks now intend to reduce dollar holdings than increase them over the coming decade, while a net 30% expect to raise their gold allocations within the next two years.

    The report stated that gold “has moved to the centre of reserve management strategy.”

    OMFIF Senior Economist Yara Aziz added that “the old assumption that public investors can wait for the environment to normalise looks increasingly unrealistic.”

  • Barclays says Europe could benefit as US equity leadership shows signs of fatigue

    Barclays says Europe could benefit as US equity leadership shows signs of fatigue

    Crowded US positioning may create opportunities abroad

    Barclays believes the dominance of US equities remains firmly in place, but says market conditions are beginning to favour a gradual shift toward international markets as investor positioning becomes increasingly stretched.

    Writing on Wednesday, strategist Emmanuel Cau noted that US equity funds attracted approximately $150 billion in June, the largest monthly inflow on record, while non-US markets “remained largely for sale.”

    The bank added that improved confidence in the US economy and easing concerns over Federal Reserve independence have pushed bullish dollar positioning back to its highest level since “Liberation Day” last year.

    Valuations and positioning raise caution

    Although US stocks continue to outperform, Barclays warned that the gap between US and international equity flows has reached unusually elevated levels.

    According to the bank, US equity flows versus global peers “look extended (>+1SD) vs. history,” indicating the potential for investors to begin reallocating capital elsewhere.

    Europe slowly regains momentum

    Barclays said hedge funds and CTAs have started rebuilding exposure to European equities, supported by lower energy prices and broader investment beyond artificial intelligence.

    While investor flows into Europe remain negative overall, the bank noted that positioning has become less pessimistic, even as sentiment toward UK-focused assets remains subdued.

    Strong inflows continue to support markets

    Despite some deleveraging among hedge funds during June, record inflows of roughly $180 billion into long-only funds kept overall equity allocations close to peak levels.

    As Cau observed, “FOMO still very much prevails.”

    Fed uncertainty remains an important watchpoint

    The bank believes monetary policy under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh represents one of the principal risks facing investors.

    Barclays said Warsh’s more hawkish approach has contributed to higher real yields and tighter financial conditions.

    Nevertheless, Cau argued that “resilient EPS momentum continues to provide a key backstop to equities,” even as seasonal summer weakness and share buyback blackout periods could increase market volatility.

  • Market Open: Craneware FY26 Warning, Strategic Minerals Redmoor Approval

    Market Open: Craneware FY26 Warning, Strategic Minerals Redmoor Approval

    FTSE 100 opens steady as European markets rise. Craneware cuts FY26 outlook, Strategic Minerals advances Redmoor, while Brent crude edges higher.

    Market Overview

    UK markets opened mixed, with the FTSE 100 edging slightly lower to 10,652.81, while the Euronext 100 gained 0.02 per cent to 1,921.52 and Germany’s DAX advanced 0.75 per cent to 25,772.81. Overnight, the Nasdaq closed lower at 25,832.67, while the S&P 500 finished broadly unchanged at 7,483.24. Market sentiment was supported by weaker US payroll data and easing geopolitical concerns following progress in Iran-related discussions, although investors remained cautious ahead of further economic data.

    Commodity markets were mixed, with copper and Brent crude higher while gold and natural gas eased. Bitcoin rose slightly against sterling. Currency markets were largely flat versus the pound, reflecting limited movement as investors weighed improving supply expectations in the oil market alongside a softer US economic backdrop.


    Market Numbers

    FTSE 100: Down (-0.001%), 10,652.81
    Euronext 100: Up (+0.02%), 1,921.52
    DAX: Up (+0.75%), 25,772.81
    NASDAQ: Down, 25,832.67
    S&P 500: Up, 7,483.24


    In the Headlines

    FY26 Outlook Warning – Craneware (LSE:CRW)

    Craneware warned that its financial performance for FY26 will fall below market expectations after delays in recognising revenue from eligible 340B drug activity and the deferral of several enterprise contracts. The company said customer demand remains strong and described the setback as a timing issue rather than a deterioration in underlying business conditions.

    Cornwall Drilling Approval – Strategic Minerals (LSE:SML)

    Strategic Minerals has received approval for a major drilling programme at the Redmoor tungsten, tin and copper project in Cornwall. The campaign is intended to expand the project’s resource base and marks an important step in advancing Redmoor towards future development.


    Currencies (vs GBP)

    USD: Unchanged (0.00%), $1.33381
    CHF: Unchanged (0.00%), Fr.1.07297
    EUR: Unchanged (0.00%), €1.1677
    JPY: Unchanged (0.00%), ¥215.355
    AUD: Unchanged (0.00%), $1.92887
    Bitcoin (BTC/GBP): Up, £46,180.40


    Commodities

    Copper: Up
    Gold: Down
    Brent Crude: Up
    Natural Gas: Down

  • Oil prices steady as bargain hunting offsets growing supply expectations

    Oil prices steady as bargain hunting offsets growing supply expectations

    Oil prices traded in a narrow range on Friday as investors stepped in to buy after recent declines, while expectations of improving crude supplies continued to prevent a stronger recovery ahead of the U.S. holiday weekend.

    Brent crude, the international benchmark, edged up 0.2% to $71.96 a barrel at 05:21 ET (09:21 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed at $68.66 a barrel.

    Markets continued to unwind the geopolitical premium built into oil prices during the recent Iran conflict as crude exports from the Gulf recovered. At the same time, weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in the near term, while a broadly stable U.S. dollar helped support commodity prices.

    Iran negotiations remain a key market driver

    Investors remained focused on diplomatic developments between Washington and Tehran after U.S. President Donald Trump said he believed Iran had “agreed to just about everything we need,” suggesting progress in ongoing discussions.

    However, The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran has rejected a proposal requiring it to give up its claims over the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets. According to the newspaper, the United States offered financial incentives, including access to frozen Iranian funds, to guarantee unrestricted navigation through the strategic shipping lane, but Tehran has so far declined the proposal.

    Although concerns over an immediate interruption to Gulf oil exports have eased, the mixed diplomatic signals continue to keep geopolitical risks firmly on investors’ radar.

    Ample supply outlook limits upside

    Analysts at ANZ said that growing short positions have weighed heavily on crude futures in recent sessions, although some traders reduced bearish bets before the U.S. holiday.

    The bank noted that Brent remains in contango, with near-term futures trading below longer-dated contracts, indicating that markets continue to anticipate abundant short-term supplies. The recovery in tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia’s exports returning to roughly 90% of pre-conflict levels have reinforced those expectations.

    Meanwhile, lower crude prices have encouraged purchases by China’s independent refiners, helped by more competitive pricing from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Even so, ANZ said Iran still faces challenges marketing its oil, with more than 58 million barrels held in floating storage and over 90% of those volumes still lacking a confirmed destination, according to Vortexa.

    Market participants will continue watching developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations, Gulf export flows and post-holiday demand trends for further direction in crude prices.

  • U.S. holiday leaves Wall Street quiet as weaker jobs data lifts global markets: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Futures

    U.S. holiday leaves Wall Street quiet as weaker jobs data lifts global markets: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Futures

    U.S. financial markets will remain closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday, but futures pointed to a firmer start when trading resumes. Softer-than-expected U.S. employment figures reduced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate increase, helping Asian equities recover after recent losses. Investors also monitored gains among Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Chinese suppliers and stronger-than-forecast activity in China’s services sector.

    Softer payrolls ease pressure on the Federal Reserve

    Wall Street futures strengthened after June’s labour market report suggested the U.S. economy is cooling, reducing expectations that policymakers will tighten monetary policy later this month.

    At 03:11 ET (07:11 GMT), Dow Jones futures were up 148 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures had gained 30 points, or 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 278 points, or 0.9%.

    The major U.S. indices ended Thursday’s shortened trading week with mixed performances. Treasury markets were relatively stable, with benchmark 10-year yields holding steady while two-year yields edged slightly lower.

    The latest Labour Department figures showed that job creation slowed more than economists had expected in June. Although the unemployment rate fell to a one-year low of 4.2%, investors interpreted the report as reducing the likelihood of another immediate interest rate increase. Earlier comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who suggested inflation risks had eased, reinforced that view.

    Deutsche Bank analysts noted that market-implied odds of a July rate hike dropped from 34% on Tuesday to just 18% by Thursday’s close.

    “Moreover, just 30 [basis points] of hikes are now priced in by the December meeting, the fewest since the Fed meeting a couple of weeks ago when the dot plot surprised in a hawkish direction,” they added.

    Technology stocks lead Asian rebound

    Asian stock markets posted broad gains as investors returned to technology shares following heavy selling earlier in the week.

    Semiconductor companies led the advance after concerns over artificial intelligence infrastructure spending had previously triggered widespread profit-taking.

    Samsung Electronics was among the session’s strongest performers after reports that Anthropic, the developer behind Claude Code, is considering developing its own AI processor with the South Korean chipmaker.

    The positive news helped South Korea’s KOSPI recover after two consecutive declines, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Singapore’s STI also closed higher.

    Chinese Tesla suppliers jump after delivery surprise

    Shares in several Chinese suppliers to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) rose sharply after the electric vehicle manufacturer reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter deliveries, improving confidence that demand may be stabilising.

    Auto component manufacturers Ningbo Xusheng, Ningbo Tuopu and Zhejiang Sanhua all gained between 5% and 9%.

    Tesla delivered a record 480,126 vehicles during the quarter, supported by robust European demand and modest sales growth in China.

    The launch of lower-priced Model 3 and Model Y variants, together with the refreshed Model Y, helped maintain sales momentum and reinforced China’s importance as both a manufacturing base and a major end market for Tesla.

    China’s services economy remains resilient

    China’s services sector expanded faster than expected in June, according to the latest private-sector survey.

    The RatingDog Services PMI eased slightly to 54.1 from 54.4 in May but remained comfortably ahead of market expectations of 53.0.

    With the index remaining above the 50-point threshold since January 2023, the survey continued to point to sustained expansion across the sector.

    Demand strengthened both domestically and internationally, while exports of services grew at their fastest pace since October 2024.

    Businesses also increased selling prices for the first time in four months as higher input costs, linked partly to supply disruptions in the Middle East, filtered through to customers.

    Hormuz transit fees remain under consideration

    Bloomberg News reported that some European policymakers are increasingly accepting that commercial vessels may eventually have to pay transit fees to Iran and Oman to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

    People familiar with the discussions said some Gulf Arab officials also believe a service charge is likely to emerge, although no government has formally adopted that position.

    Questions remain over both the size of any future fees and the implications such charges could have for international maritime law.

    The Strait of Hormuz has remained at the centre of geopolitical tensions since Iran effectively closed the shipping route following the joint U.S.-Israeli military operation in late February. Although oil prices initially surged, they have since retreated to around pre-conflict levels after the United States and Iran reached an interim peace agreement.

  • European stocks hit fresh highs as weaker U.S. jobs data lifts sentiment: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European stocks hit fresh highs as weaker U.S. jobs data lifts sentiment: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European equity markets extended their record-setting advance on Thursday after weaker U.S. labour market data eased concerns over further near-term Federal Reserve interest rate increases, boosting investor confidence across the region.

    The pan-European STOXX 600 gained 0.5% in early trading, reaching another all-time high after also finishing at a record level in the previous session.

    Global risk appetite improved following a sharp slowdown in U.S. job creation. The softer employment figures helped calm concerns that sustained monetary tightening in the United States could further weigh on economic growth across Europe.

    A less aggressive Federal Reserve outlook is viewed as supportive for European assets because it reduces pressure on global borrowing costs, limits capital flows toward higher-yielding U.S. assets and gives the European Central Bank greater flexibility in managing its own monetary policy.

    Before the employment figures were released, traders had assigned more than a 60% probability to another Fed rate increase at the September meeting, according to CME FedWatch data. Those expectations had strengthened after recent comments from newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Following the payroll report, however, markets shifted their outlook, increasingly expecting policymakers to leave rates unchanged until at least October.

    ECB comments add further support

    Investor sentiment also benefited from remarks delivered during the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal.

    ECB President Christine Lagarde said that risks to euro area inflation and economic growth are becoming “more broadly balanced,” providing reassurance after last month’s 25-basis-point interest rate increase.

    The comments reinforced expectations that the ECB can continue managing its own policy path without being forced to closely mirror future Federal Reserve decisions.

    European equities head for strongest week in months

    The STOXX 600 remained on track to record its strongest weekly performance in almost two months.

    Market sentiment was also strengthened by further progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran.

    The improving geopolitical backdrop contributed to oil prices retreating toward pre-conflict levels while shipping activity continued to normalise, easing inflation pressures on European supply chains.

    Across the region, Germany’s DAX advanced 0.9% to another record high, France’s CAC 40 rose 0.3%, Italy’s FTSE MIB added 0.5%, and London’s commodity-focused FTSE 100 gained 0.3%.

    Among individual companies, Pirelli (BIT:PIRC) climbed 2% following reports that Czech investors are interested in acquiring part of Sinochem’s stake, while Auto1 Group (TG:AG1) gained 2% after J.P. Morgan added the shares to its positive catalyst watch list.