Author: Fiona Craig

Oil prices moved higher on Monday as investor attention shifted back to threats facing energy export facilities in the Middle East, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for international cooperation to protect the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes.

Brent crude futures rose $2.73, or 2.7%, to $105.87 per barrel by 07:30 GMT after gaining $2.68 in Friday’s session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed $1.65, or 1.7%, to $100.36 per barrel following a near-$3 advance in the previous trading day.

Both benchmarks have rallied more than 40% this month, reaching their highest levels since 2022. The surge followed U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, which prompted Tehran to suspend shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—cutting off roughly one-fifth of global oil supply in what has become the largest disruption on record.

“U.S. strikes over the weekend on Kharg Island raised supply concerns, as most of Iran’s oil exports pass through it,” ING commodity strategists said on Monday.

Although the strikes appear to have targeted military installations rather than oil infrastructure, ING noted that supply risks remain elevated because Iranian crude is currently among the few shipments still moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

Over the weekend, Trump warned that additional attacks on Iran’s Kharg Island could follow. The island, which handles around 90% of Iran’s oil exports, had already been targeted in strikes on military sites, prompting Tehran to issue fresh threats of retaliation.

Shortly after the attacks on Kharg, Iranian drones struck a key oil terminal in Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. According to four sources, oil loading operations at Fujairah have resumed, although it remains uncertain whether activity has fully returned to normal.

Located outside the Strait of Hormuz, Fujairah serves as the export outlet for roughly 1 million barrels per day of the UAE’s flagship Murban crude—equivalent to about 1% of global oil demand.

“The U.S. is weighing high-risk ground options, including raiding nuclear sites for Iran’s enriched uranium, seizing the Kharg Island oil hub, and occupying southern Iran to protect the Strait of Hormuz,” SEB analyst Erik Meyersson said in a note.

“All of these imply significant escalation and require a tolerance for substantially higher risk.”

On Sunday, Trump said Washington was urging other countries to help secure the strategic maritime corridor and noted that discussions with several governments were already underway regarding potential patrol efforts.

He also said the United States remains in contact with Iran, but questioned whether Tehran is prepared to engage in serious negotiations aimed at ending the conflict.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency announced on Sunday that more than 400 million barrels of crude from strategic reserves would soon be released to the market—a record draw intended to offset price spikes caused by the Middle East conflict.

According to the agency, stocks held in Asia and Oceania will be deployed immediately, while supplies from Europe and the Americas are expected to reach the market by the end of March.

“As the conflict enters its third week, the lack of a clear denouement has left global markets increasingly worried about an uncontrollable escalatory spiral,” SEB’s Meyersson said.

Still, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Sunday he expected the conflict to end within “the next few weeks,” after which oil supply should recover and energy prices could ease.

Gold prices were largely stable in Asian trading on Monday after briefly dipping below an important psychological threshold earlier in the session. Investors remained focused on developments surrounding the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran.

Caution also prevailed ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, with markets concerned that the central bank could maintain a hawkish tone as inflation pressures remain persistent.

Spot gold was little changed at $5,016.84 per ounce at 01:47 ET (05:47 GMT), while gold futures slipped 0.8% to $5,020.76 per ounce. Earlier in the session, spot prices briefly dropped below the $5,000 per ounce mark.

Iran conflict continues, Trump seeks support over Hormuz

The conflict involving Iran showed no clear signs of easing after U.S. and Israeli forces reportedly struck a major export facility over the weekend, prompting warnings of retaliation from Tehran.

Oil prices remained comfortably above $100 per barrel, although they pared some gains on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said discussions were underway to form a coalition aimed at reopening a crucial shipping route that Iran has blocked.

Trump said the conflict with Iran could be nearing an end—claims that Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected.

Despite heightened geopolitical tensions, gold has not fully benefited from safe-haven demand. The metal has been weighed down by concerns that inflation linked to the conflict could keep interest rates higher for longer.

“Gold has struggled as it is being overshadowed by a stronger USD, rising yields and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy,” ANZ analysts wrote in a note, adding that liquidations by traders, to meet margin calls, had also contributed to weakness in bullion prices.

However, ANZ analysts stressed that the broader case for gold as protection against geopolitical risk remains intact. The metal is still up roughly 16% so far in 2026.

Other metals show mixed performance

Other precious metals traded unevenly on Monday as the U.S. dollar strengthened.

Spot silver declined 0.3% to $80.2605 per ounce, while spot platinum climbed 1.8% to $2,064.22 per ounce.

Attention turns to Federal Reserve meeting

Market focus this week is firmly on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

Expectations for a pause have been driven largely by growing uncertainty over the outlook for the U.S. economy, particularly as investors worry that higher energy prices linked to the Iran conflict could push inflation higher.

The Fed’s independence also came under scrutiny last week after a U.S. judge blocked subpoenas issued by the Department of Justice against Chair Jerome Powell over alleged cost overruns.

Powell argued that the subpoenas were intended to pressure the central bank into cutting interest rates, and the court ruled in his favor.

The legal dispute had raised fresh questions about the Fed’s independence. The Justice Department said it plans to appeal the decision, and the case may ultimately be decided by the Supreme Court.

Bitcoin climbed above $74,000 on Monday, marking its highest level in around six weeks, as a surge in short liquidations pushed prices higher. The move came even as investors remained cautious amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The largest cryptocurrency was trading 3.4% higher at $73,892.4 at 02:21 ET (06:21 GMT), after earlier touching a session high of $74,336.9.

Bitcoin advanced roughly 6% over the past week, defying weakness in global equity markets that have been pressured by rising oil prices and renewed concerns about inflation.

Short squeeze fuels crypto gains

The broader crypto market also moved higher as traders who had positioned for further declines were forced to unwind their short bets.

Figures from CoinGlass showed that about $344 million worth of crypto positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with short positions making up nearly 83% of the total.

Liquidations occur when leveraged positions are automatically closed after prices move against traders, often accelerating price momentum in the market.

Despite the rally, investor sentiment remained guarded as the Middle East conflict entered its third week, heightening worries over global energy supply and inflation.

U.S. President Donald Trump has urged allied nations to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route for global oil shipments, as fighting in the region continues.

Oil holds firm above $100 amid Iran tensions

Reports indicated that drone attacks persisted across Gulf states on Monday, despite repeated statements from U.S. officials claiming that Iran’s military capacity had been significantly weakened.

Oil prices also remained elevated above $100 per barrel amid fears of supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key corridor for global crude exports.

U.S. stock futures traded slightly higher during Asian hours on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting. The central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged while monitoring inflation pressures.

Analysts said that geopolitical uncertainty and broader macroeconomic risks could keep cryptocurrency markets volatile in the near term, even as short covering supports prices in the short run.

Altcoins rally; Ether leads gains

Most major altcoins also posted gains on Monday as the crypto market rebounded.

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, surged 8% to $2,265.88.

XRP, the third-largest token, slipped 5% to $1.48.

Solana and Polygon each rose about 6%, while Cardano jumped close to 10%.

Among meme coins, Dogecoin climbed roughly 7%.

European equity markets began Monday with modest gains as investors monitored another rise in oil prices above the $100-per-barrel mark while the conflict involving Iran moved into its third week.

At 08:04 GMT, the pan-European Stoxx 600 was up 0.1%. Germany’s DAX also rose 0.1%, France’s CAC 40 gained 0.1%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.4%.

The joint military campaign by the United States and Israel against Iran continues to spread instability across the Middle East. Saudi Arabia reported intercepting more than 60 drones flying over its territory, although the country’s defense ministry did not specify where the drones originated or what their intended targets were.

At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump has appealed to seven countries to support Washington in safeguarding the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. However, Trump did not confirm whether any governments have agreed to participate.

Tehran has effectively halted tanker traffic through the strait, which is bordered by Iran on three sides. The disruption has pushed energy prices sharply higher and increased concerns about the outlook for the global economy.

For Europe in particular, the disruption risks reigniting inflation pressures in a region that only recently appeared to have brought price growth largely under control. Europe imports a large share of its energy through the strait, meaning the stoppage could further weigh on an economy that has already shown signs of stagnation.

The surge in oil and gas prices has also pushed borrowing costs higher across the continent, reflecting fears that the European Central Bank could once again face pressure to consider tightening monetary policy. The Stoxx 600 has already come under strain, falling more than 5% from the peak reached before the conflict began.

The ECB is set to announce its latest policy decision later this week, alongside several other major central banks including the Federal Reserve. Despite the escalation in the Middle East, economists surveyed by Reuters expect the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of 2026.

“Central banks are not expected to make major changes to monetary policy this month, but watch closely for how the Fed and others assess the inflation outlook after the surge in oil prices,” Laurence Booth, Global Head of Markets at CMC Markets, told Investing.com.

Oil prices rise

Oil markets were volatile on Monday as traders remained wary of potential supply disruptions linked to the Middle East crisis.

Prices briefly eased after Trump called on other nations, including China, to assist in reopening shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures — the global benchmark — were up 2.7% at $105.90 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 2.0% to $98.75 a barrel by 04:06 ET. Earlier in the session, oil prices had surged by as much as 3% before paring gains and briefly trading flat.

Shares in Cab Payments Holdings PLC (LSE:CABP) climbed sharply on Monday, rising 12.9% after the company disclosed that it had received a potential takeover approach from StoneX Group.

StoneX said it had put forward an all-cash proposal to acquire the payments firm at 95 pence per share. The indicative offer represents a 32% premium to CAB Payments’ undisturbed closing price of 72 pence on January 30 and an 11% premium to the 85 pence per share offer made by the Helios Consortium on March 2.

CAB Payments confirmed that its independent board is currently reviewing the proposal from StoneX. As part of this process, directors will also assess the group’s financial and operational performance for the 2025 fiscal year.

StoneX said it believes there is strong strategic alignment between CAB Payments’ operations and its own payments division. According to the company, combining the two businesses could create a specialist platform focused on payments across emerging markets. StoneX added that it believes it would be the most suitable long-term owner for CAB Payments.

Economic prospects in the euro area are coming under increasing strain from the conflict in the Middle East and tighter financial conditions, according to a recent note from Barclays Research. The bank expects the European Central Bank to leave its key deposit rate unchanged at 2% at the March 19 policy meeting.

Barclays now forecasts eurozone real GDP growth of 1.1% in 2026, down from 1.5% expected for 2025. At the same time, headline inflation is projected to rise to 2.4% this year—0.6 percentage points higher than the brokerage’s December estimate—before easing back to around 2% by 2027.

According to Barclays’ nowcasting model, the eurozone economy could contract by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, weaker than both the bank’s own forecast and the ECB’s projection of 0.3% growth.

“The ECB will do what is necessary to maintain medium-term inflation at target,” Barclays expects President Christine Lagarde to reiterate during the press conference following the meeting. The Governing Council is also likely to emphasize that policy rates are “not on a predetermined path.”

Recent economic indicators point to weakening momentum in the region’s industrial sector. Euro area industrial production fell 1.5% month-on-month in January, including declines of 1.3% in Germany, 0.6% in Italy and 0.5% in Spain. In Germany, factory orders plunged 11.1% from the previous month, reversing most of the gains recorded in the second half of 2025.

Barclays outlined a scenario in which Brent crude stabilizes around $100 per barrel and TTF natural gas remains near €70 per megawatt-hour—roughly 40% and 120% higher respectively since the start of the conflict. Under these conditions, the bank estimates eurozone GDP could be about 0.6 percentage points lower after one year, while consumer prices might increase by as much as 1.4 percentage points within 12 months.

The bank also suggested that any fiscal response from governments would likely be “more limited and more targeted” than the measures implemented after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when emergency support amounted to roughly 3% of nominal GDP.

Among the eurozone’s four largest economies, Spain is expected to remain the most resilient, with Barclays projecting growth of 2.3% in 2026. Germany’s economy is forecast to expand by 0.9%, France by 1.1% and Italy by 0.7%.

France is also seen facing the heaviest fiscal pressures, with its budget deficit expected to reach 5.2% of GDP in 2026 and public debt rising to 118.6% of GDP.

On the trade front, the United States launched an investigation on March 12 into EU trade practices to determine whether they contribute to excessive manufacturing capacity.

In the political arena, France will hold the first round of municipal elections on March 15. Barclays highlighted that the performance of Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National could serve as an indicator of the party’s momentum ahead of the country’s presidential election in 2027.

SRT Marine Systems (LSE:SRT) reported strong performance for the six months to 31 December 2025, with revenue almost doubling year-on-year to £51.1 million and profit before tax increasing 48% to £3.1 million. Growth was largely driven by the company’s sovereign maritime surveillance systems division. Gross cash rose to £41.6 million, including substantial restricted funds linked to ongoing projects, while an order book of roughly £350 million across five sovereign clients and continued cash inflows support management’s confidence in meeting market expectations.

The group’s systems segment continues to expand rapidly, supported by a visible contract pipeline estimated at around £1.8 billion. During the period, SRT secured a £15.3 million follow-on contract from an existing customer and signed a new £195 million sovereign maritime surveillance agreement that is awaiting formal activation. Operational progress also included the first unmanned surface surveillance vessel programme becoming fully operational in Kuwait. After the reporting period, the company launched its NEXUS VHF/AIS communications system, further enhancing its technology portfolio and strengthening its position as a provider of integrated maritime domain awareness solutions.

Despite strong revenue growth and improving operational efficiency, the company’s outlook is tempered by weak cash flow dynamics. Technical indicators remain negative with limited momentum, although the shares may be approaching oversold levels. Valuation also appears stretched, with a very high price-to-earnings ratio and no dividend yield to provide additional support.

More about SRT Marine Systems

SRT Marine Systems is a UK-based technology company specialising in maritime intelligence, surveillance and navigation safety systems for civil defence and commercial maritime users. Its solutions are deployed by sovereign organisations such as coast guards, fisheries authorities and maritime agencies, as well as by commercial shipping and leisure vessel operators seeking improved maritime domain awareness and digital navigation capabilities.