Author: Fiona Craig

  • Should we expect a “stimulus bazooka” in China?

    Should we expect a “stimulus bazooka” in China?

    Although the trade war with the United States remains unresolved — and could even escalate after Chinese regulators accused Nvidia of violating antitrust rules — the CSI 300 index has continued its upward trajectory. However, this rally is not solely driven by artificial intelligence, as is largely the case with the S&P 500 index.

    In fact, China’s domestic policies to strengthen its IT infrastructure have funneled money into large local technology companies, turning many of them into top stock gainers. Alibaba’s announcement of a massive $53 billion investment in AI infrastructure further fueled the momentum, demonstrating a long-term commitment to technological self-sufficiency. 

    Beyond technology, investors are betting on broader government measures to address local government debt and real estate debt issues, as well as stimulate the economy overall. And these expectations gained traction following the release of the latest economic data from Beijing this morning.

    In short, the August numbers were weak across the board. Industrial production rose 5.2% compared to last year, a bit below July’s 5.7%. Retail sales lost momentum, slowing to 3.4%, the lowest reading since November. Fixed asset investment was almost flat, up just 0.5%, and the property sector took a steep hit, dropping 12.9%.

    This makes it harder for Beijing to hit its official 5% growth target.

    The case for more stimulus is growing, especially with inflation showing further signs of weakness. In August, consumer prices fell 0.4% from a year earlier after staying flat in July, which was worse than expected. Producer prices were also down 2.9% year-on-year, though the decline was smaller than July’s 3.6% drop.

    With that in mind, attention is shifting to October’s Fourth Plenary Session. That’s when the next Five-Year Plan will be discussed in depth before it’s formally presented at next year’s Two Sessions. Even if there’s no big policy announcement, the meeting could offer clues or adjustments that help shape the economy’s direction.

    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • Five Key Market Developments to Watch This Week

    Five Key Market Developments to Watch This Week

    This week, investor attention is squarely on the Federal Reserve, widely expected to cut interest rates. Other central banks, including those of Canada, the U.K., and Japan, will also announce monetary policy decisions. Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales growth for August is projected to slow, and shipping giant FedEx is scheduled to release quarterly results, providing a window into broader economic trends.

    Federal Reserve Rate Decision

    All eyes are on the Fed as markets anticipate a rate cut at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. Recent signs of a softer U.S. labor market have strengthened expectations for the first rate reduction since the easing cycle paused in December. Lower rates could help stimulate investment and hiring.

    However, easing could also add pressure to inflation. Last week, the monthly U.S. consumer price index edged up due to rising housing and food costs, hinting at persistent price pressures. Yet weekly initial jobless claims rose, keeping the likelihood of a rate cut high. CME’s FedWatch Tool shows roughly a 95% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and about a 5% chance of a 50-basis-point move. The Fed’s target range remains 4.25% to 4.5%.

    “Inflation remains above target and tariffs are likely to keep it elevated in the near term, but the balance of risks are tilted towards the need for more support for the economy,” analysts at ING said in a note.

    Other Central Bank Announcements

    The Bank of Canada is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points to support an economy sensitive to U.S. tariffs. August saw Canadian job growth slow for the second month, while Q2 GDP contracted sharply, although inflation stayed near forecasts.

    The Bank of England is likely to keep rates steady, having already cut them in August, while monitoring new labor and inflation data. The Bank of Japan is also expected to maintain its current policy stance, though markets will look for hints on fourth-quarter plans amid domestic political uncertainty.

    U.S. Retail Sales Data

    August retail sales in the U.S. will be released Tuesday. Economists expect a slowdown to 0.2%, down from 0.5% in July, which had been supported by car sales and promotional activity from Amazon and Walmart. Revised June figures suggest economic activity has been resilient, though softer employment, waning consumer confidence, and higher goods prices could weigh on sales in the final weeks of Q3.

    FedEx Earnings Preview

    FedEx (NYSE:FDX) will report quarterly results this week, offering insight into consumer spending. As a bellwether, its performance often signals broader economic trends. Tariffs imposed under President Trump have added uncertainty, causing many businesses to limit expenditures. In June, FedEx forecasted cautiously, with CEO Raj Subramaniam warning of a “volatile” demand environment. Its fiscal Q1 adjusted profit per share guidance of $3.40 to $4 fell below analyst expectations.

    U.S.-China Trade Talks

    U.S. and Chinese officials are resuming discussions in Madrid after making limited progress on Sunday. Expectations remain low for a breakthrough on longstanding trade tensions.

    Observers anticipate the talks will focus on extending the deadline for ByteDance’s TikTok U.S. divestment. If not sold by September 17, TikTok could face a U.S. shutdown. Reuters cited a source suggesting President Trump may extend the deadline.

    Bessent told reporters both sides would “start again in the morning” after a six-hour meeting on Sunday. China’s embassy indicated a concluding press conference could occur Monday, signaling the talks may conclude soon. Bessent is expected to travel to London Tuesday ahead of Trump’s state visit with King Charles.

    Ahead of the Madrid discussions, China’s Ministry of Commerce launched an anti-discrimination investigation into U.S. chip policies and a separate probe into suspected dumping of U.S. analog chips.

    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • AstraZeneca shares drop 3% as £200 million Cambridge expansion paused

    AstraZeneca shares drop 3% as £200 million Cambridge expansion paused

    Shares of AstraZeneca (LSE:AZN) fell 3% on Monday after the pharmaceutical giant decided to put a £200 million ($271 million) investment in its Cambridge research campus on hold.

    The project, which was expected to create around 1,000 jobs, represents the latest retreat by a UK-based pharma company. The expansion had been announced in March 2024, but the funding is not currently progressing.

    Earlier this year, in January, AstraZeneca also canceled plans to invest £450 million in a vaccine production facility in northern England after the UK government scaled back support. Similarly, U.S. competitor Merck & Co abandoned plans for a London research centre this week, citing the country’s challenging business climate.

    When asked about its own investment plans following Merck’s announcement, AstraZeneca confirmed the Cambridge project was on hold.

    “We constantly reassess the investment needs of our company and can confirm our expansion in Cambridge is paused,” an AstraZeneca spokesperson told Investing.com.

    The decision is a setback for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government, coming just days before U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit Britain on a state visit. In July, AstraZeneca—the largest company on the FTSE 100—announced a $50 billion U.S. expansion plan by 2030, part of a wave of responses by drugmakers to Trump’s tariff policies.

    Trump has criticized the UK and Europe for not paying enough for medicines, while pharmaceutical companies argue that Britain undervalues drugs and innovation. After abandoning the vaccine site plan, AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot called on the government to improve the investment environment.

    The Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry warned this week that the UK is “increasingly being ruled out of consideration as a viable location for pharmaceutical investment” as negotiations stall over revenue contributions to the NHS.

    In an effort to counteract the potential impact of Trump’s upcoming pharma tariffs, London and Washington agreed in May to work toward “significantly preferential treatment outcomes on pharmaceuticals,” including improving conditions for companies operating in the UK. Meanwhile, global drugmakers continue to push for higher overseas drug prices in response to Trump’s pressure, with Eli Lilly recently raising the UK price of its weight-loss drug Mounjaro by 170%.

    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • BT Group shares drop over 3% as Bharti executives join board

    BT Group shares drop over 3% as Bharti executives join board

    Shares of BT Group (LSE:BT.A) fell more than 3% on Monday after the company announced the appointments of Sunil Bharti Mittal, founder and chairman of Bharti Enterprises, and Gopal Vittal, vice chairman and managing director of Bharti Airtel Ltd., to its board as non-independent, non-executive directors.

    The new board roles take effect immediately and follow a relationship agreement between BT Group and Bharti Global Ltd., the international investment arm of Bharti Enterprises.

    Under the terms of the agreement, Bharti Global has the right to nominate two directors if it and its affiliates maintain at least a 20% economic stake in BT. This entitlement drops to one nomination if the holding falls below 20% but remains above 10%.

    Mittal is the founder of Bharti Enterprises, whose flagship Airtel brand operates in 15 countries across India and Africa, serving over 500 million customers. He also serves as co-chairman of satellite operator Eutelsat Group and chairs Airtel Africa Plc.

    Vittal has been at the helm of Airtel for over ten years, guiding the company’s market share from 30% to more than 40% and increasing its market capitalization fivefold to $120 billion. He previously worked at Hindustan Unilever and currently chairs the GSMA, the global mobile industry association.

    Bharti Global has invested in several UK ventures, including supporting satellite operator OneWeb before its merger with Eutelsat in 2023. The group also owns hospitality properties such as The Hoxton hotels and Scotland’s Gleneagles resort.

    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street, U.S. futures mixed as markets eye Fed and U.S.-China talks

    Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street, U.S. futures mixed as markets eye Fed and U.S.-China talks

    U.S. stock futures opened Monday with a mixed performance ahead of a critical Federal Reserve rate decision scheduled later this week. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures inched higher, while Dow futures slipped, as investors weighed signs of a cooling labor market against persistent inflation pressures. In parallel, U.S. and Chinese officials continued discussions in Spain on trade matters and the future of TikTok’s U.S. operations.

    Futures show contrasting trends

    Ahead of a week packed with major central bank announcements, including the Fed, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of England, U.S. futures remained volatile. At 03:26 ET, S&P 500 futures rose 9 points (0.1%), Nasdaq 100 futures gained 29 points (0.1%), and Dow futures fell 287 points (0.6%).

    Wall Street ended last week with mixed results. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite recorded a new closing high, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped slightly. Microsoft shares (NASDAQ:MSFT) rose after the company avoided a potential large EU antitrust penalty by offering a discounted price for Office, excluding Teams. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) also gained, supported by comments from the automaker’s board chair that CEO Elon Musk was focused on running the company after a brief stint at the White House.

    Investors were also digesting University of Michigan data showing a decline in consumer sentiment for September and continued concerns about inflation fueled by tariffs.

    Fed rate decision dominates focus

    All eyes remain on the Federal Reserve as its two-day meeting concludes Wednesday. A rate cut is widely anticipated, reflecting signs of a softer U.S. labor market. Lower rates are expected to stimulate investment and hiring, though there is a risk of increased inflation.

    Last week’s consumer price index report showed a slight uptick in August due to rising housing and food costs, suggesting inflationary pressures persist. Meanwhile, weekly initial jobless claims pointed toward a softening labor market. CME’s FedWatch Tool shows roughly a 95% probability of a 25-basis-point cut and about a 5% chance of a 50-basis-point reduction. The current Fed target rate remains at 4.25% to 4.5%.

    “A cooling economy and weakening jobs market will help to dampen inflation tied to tariffs, and the Fed is now in a position to resume loosening policy from ’somewhat restrictive’ territory towards a neutral footing,” analysts at ING said in a note.

    U.S.-China negotiations continue in Madrid

    After limited progress on Sunday, U.S. and Chinese officials resumed talks in Spain. Expectations for breakthroughs on longstanding trade issues remain low, with a focus on the TikTok divestment deadline for ByteDance’s U.S. operations. Failure to sell the unit by September 17 could force TikTok to cease operations in the United States.

    Reuters reported that President Donald Trump may extend the deadline. Both sides planned to “start again in the morning,” Bessent told reporters, after only six hours of talks on Sunday. China’s embassy in Madrid indicated that a concluding press conference might occur Monday, suggesting a near-term wrap-up. Bessent will travel to London on Tuesday ahead of Trump’s state visit with King Charles later in the week.

    China opens probe into U.S. chip policies

    Before talks began, China’s Ministry of Commerce launched an investigation into U.S. policies affecting semiconductor trade, assessing whether export controls and other measures have unfairly hindered Chinese firms’ development of AI and high-tech capabilities. A separate probe examined potential dumping of U.S. analog chips in devices such as sensors and hearing aids. Analysts at Vital Knowledge warned investors to “expect pressure” on companies including Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, and NXP Semiconductors.

    Oil prices rise amid Russian supply concerns

    Oil prices extended their recent gains amid concerns about potential Russian supply disruptions following Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow’s energy infrastructure. At 03:27 ET, Brent futures rose 0.5% to $67.29 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures increased 0.1% to $62.76 per barrel.

    Both contracts gained over 1% last week as Ukraine stepped up strikes on Russian oil assets, including the Primorsk export terminal and the Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery. These disruptions could reduce Russian oil output significantly, impacting major markets such as India and China.

    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • Dollar gains slightly as Fed rate decision looms; euro under pressure

    Dollar gains slightly as Fed rate decision looms; euro under pressure

    The U.S. dollar edged a bit higher on Monday as market participants focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, expected to shape currency trends heading into the final quarter of the year.

    At 04:10 ET (08:10 GMT), the Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.1% to 97.175, after having declined more than 10% so far in 2025.

    Dollar eyes Fed decision

    The Federal Reserve will wrap up its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, and a rate cut is widely anticipated following recent data pointing to continued weakness in the U.S. labor market and softer-than-expected inflation in August.

    Markets currently price in a 96.4% likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut and a 3.6% probability of a 50-basis-point reduction, according to CME FedWatch.

    “We see the dollar staying gently offered into the meeting, and it could sell off a little further should a 50bp cut at the meeting prove a closer call than most expect,” noted analysts at ING in their commentary.

    In addition to the Fed meeting, attention will turn to Tuesday’s U.S. retail sales figures for August, as well as weekly jobless claims and July Treasury International Capital data on Thursday.

    “Last week’s jump in jobless claims briefly hit the dollar, and the TIC data will be scrutinised for any signs that foreign investors are not just hedging U.S. assets, but outright selling them,” ING added.

    Euro struggles amid French political uncertainty

    EUR/USD traded slightly lower at 1.1732, as the euro struggled to capitalize on U.S. dollar softness amid ongoing political uncertainty in France, including Fitch’s Friday downgrade of French debt by one notch to A+.

    Locally, markets are watching how quickly, if at all, new French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu can unify the fragmented National Assembly to implement the unpopular yet necessary fiscal consolidation measures.

    “Expect FX market players to keep one eye on French debt, even though our core view is that this is not going to broaden into another eurozone crisis,” ING said.

    GBP/USD rose 0.2% to 1.3582, with sterling supported ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England meeting. The BoE cut rates last month for the fifth time in just over a year, but is widely expected to hold steady later this week, as inflation in July reached 3.8%—the highest among G7 economies and nearly double the UK central bank’s medium-term target. Recent data also showed U.K. growth stagnated in July following a strong first half of 2025.

    Yuan weakens amid mixed Chinese data

    Elsewhere, USD/JPY slipped 0.1% to 147.48 amid holiday-impacted trading in Japan for “Respect for the Aged” day.

    USD/CNY edged lower to 7.1233, weighed down by weak Chinese economic data. Industrial production and retail sales both grew less than expected in August, while fixed asset investment also lagged projections. China’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 5.3% in August, following last week’s soft inflation data, reinforcing disinflationary pressures.

    AUD/USD added 0.2% to 0.6662, building on last week’s gains as the Australian dollar benefited from rising commodity prices.

    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • Gold Holds Near All-Time Highs Ahead of Fed Policy Decision

    Gold Holds Near All-Time Highs Ahead of Fed Policy Decision

    Gold prices remained elevated in Asian markets on Monday, extending a four-week streak of gains as traders positioned for an anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut later this week.

    Spot gold rose marginally, up 0.1% to $3,645.03 per ounce by 01:29 ET (05:29 GMT), staying close to last week’s record peak of $3,673.95. U.S. Gold Futures ticked down slightly to $3,682.70 per ounce.

    The precious metal has gained roughly 1.5% over the past week, marking its fourth consecutive weekly increase. Year-to-date, gold has surged nearly 40%, reflecting strong safe-haven demand amid trade tensions under President Donald Trump’s administration.

    Fed Decision in Focus

    The Federal Reserve is set to begin its meeting on Tuesday, with a rate decision expected Wednesday. Market participants currently assign more than a 96% probability to a 25-basis-point cut, with some bets on a larger reduction. Optimism for imminent easing has grown after significant revisions to U.S. labor data highlighted a cooling job market.

    In August, payroll growth was modest at just 22,000 jobs, raising unemployment to 4.3%. While the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% month-on-month, keeping annual inflation at 2.9%, analysts note that the Fed is likely to prioritize signs of labor market weakness. Gold is particularly sensitive to interest rate expectations, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset and generally weaken the dollar.

    Other Metals and Chinese Data Weigh on Markets

    Other precious metals were mixed. Silver futures slipped 0.2% to $42.76 per ounce, and platinum futures remained largely flat at $1,410.45 per ounce. Copper also posted small gains, with London Metal Exchange benchmark futures up 0.3% to $10,083.30 per ton and U.S. copper futures rising 0.2% to $4.66 per pound.

    Market sentiment was dampened by Chinese economic indicators. Industrial production in August expanded at its slowest pace in a year, and retail sales growth slowed compared with July, both falling short of market expectations. As the world’s largest copper importer, China’s weaker data added caution to the metals market.

    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • Oil Prices Edge Higher as Russia Supply Concerns and Fed Meeting Draw Attention

    Oil Prices Edge Higher as Russia Supply Concerns and Fed Meeting Draw Attention

    Oil prices climbed in Asian trading on Monday, extending modest gains from last week as investors monitored potential disruptions to Russian supply following Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Moscow’s energy infrastructure.

    Attention this week is also on the U.S. Federal Reserve, widely expected to cut interest rates amid growing concerns over slowing fuel demand in the country.

    By 22:15 ET (02:15 GMT), Brent crude for November delivery rose 0.4% to $67.26 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures increased 0.5% to $62.72 a barrel.

    Russian Supply Risks Persist

    Last week, oil prices gained roughly 1% after Ukraine intensified attacks on Russian energy assets, including the Primorsk export terminal and the Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery. These strikes could temporarily take significant volumes of Russian oil offline, raising the risk of supply disruptions, particularly for major importers such as India and China.

    Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts by the U.S. to de-escalate the Russia-Ukraine conflict continue, although Moscow indicated on Friday that ceasefire negotiations with Kyiv had stalled.

    The U.S. has also been pursuing higher trade tariffs on China and India among G7 nations, following Washington’s late-August decision to impose a 50% tariff on Indian purchases of Russian oil. Additional Western restrictions could further tighten global supply if the conflict persists.

    Focus on Fed Rate Decision

    Oil markets received additional support from a softer U.S. dollar, which weakened in anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut this week. A series of mixed inflation readings and weaker labor market data have fueled expectations that the Fed may resume its easing cycle from September.

    According to CME FedWatch, markets are currently pricing in a 96.4% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut and a 3.6% chance of a 50 bps reduction. Lower interest rates generally stimulate economic activity, which could boost fuel demand in the coming months.

    The weaker dollar also benefits commodities priced in U.S. dollars, contributing to the modest rally across oil and other markets.

    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • DAX, CAC, FTSE100, European Stocks Rise Ahead of Key Central Bank Meetings; Fed Rate Cut Anticipated

    DAX, CAC, FTSE100, European Stocks Rise Ahead of Key Central Bank Meetings; Fed Rate Cut Anticipated

    European equities edged higher on Monday, starting the week positively as investors awaited several key central bank meetings, including the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.

    By 07:05 GMT, Germany’s DAX was up 0.5%, France’s CAC 40 gained 0.5%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 0.1%.

    Focus on the Fed

    Market participants are bracing for a critical Federal Reserve meeting later this week. Recent economic indicators suggest a softening labor market alongside subdued inflation, raising expectations of a potential rate cut when the Fed concludes its session on Wednesday. Optimism around this scenario helped push U.S. stock indices to record levels last week, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closing Friday at a new high.

    The Fed is not the only central bank in the spotlight this week. The Bank of England, which cut rates five times in just over a year, is expected to hold rates steady on Thursday, even with inflation at 3.8% in July—the highest among G7 nations and nearly double the Bank of England’s medium-term target. Other central banks set to announce policy include those in Japan, Canada, and South Africa.

    China Growth Slows

    In Europe, there was little domestic economic data on Monday, but sentiment was affected by China’s August economic figures. Factory output and retail sales showed their slowest growth since last year, with industrial production up 5.2% year-on-year (down from 5.7% in July) and retail sales rising 3.4%, the slowest pace since November 2024.

    Corporate Developments

    In corporate news, German defence firm Rheinmetall (TG:RHM) announced an agreement to acquire the military shipbuilding division of the Luerssen Group, Naval Vessels Luerssen, marking its expansion into naval construction. Transaction terms were not disclosed, and the deal is expected to close early next year, subject to antitrust approval.

    Meanwhile, AO World (LSE:AO.) boosted its profit forecast and announced its first-ever £10 million share buyback after reporting double-digit revenue growth for H1 2025.

    Oil Markets

    Oil prices rose Monday, continuing recent gains amid concerns over Russian supply disruptions following Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow’s energy infrastructure. At 03:05 ET, Brent futures climbed 0.3% to $67.22 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.1% to $62.75 per barrel. Both benchmarks gained more than 1% last week as attacks targeted Russia’s Primorsk export terminal and the Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery, potentially reducing crude output and affecting key markets such as India and China.

    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • Greencoat Renewables Posts €68 Million Loss but Strengthens Cash Flow and Reduces Debt

    Greencoat Renewables Posts €68 Million Loss but Strengthens Cash Flow and Reduces Debt

    Greencoat Renewables Plc (LSE:GRP) reported a post-tax loss of €68 million for H1 2025, compared with a €34.6 million profit in the same period last year, as weaker wind conditions and lower power prices negatively affected output and valuations.

    The Dublin-listed renewable investor generated €68.7 million in gross cash and €64.8 million in net cash after project-level debt repayments, providing dividend cover of 1.8x gross and 1.7x net. Revenue totaled €160.2 million, with implied EBITDA of €89.8 million. Electricity production reached 1,830 GWh, 15% below budget, which the company described as “one of the weakest Northern European wind resource periods on record.” Solar output met expectations.

    Dividends for the period were 3.41 cents per share (€37.9 million), keeping Greencoat on track for its 2025 target of 6.81 cents. Net asset value stood at €1.12 billion (101.0 cents per share) as of 30 June, down from €1.23 billion (110.5 cents) at the end of 2024. Gross asset value was €2.48 billion.

    The company completed the sale of a 116 MW portfolio of six Irish assets, including a 50% stake in Knockacummer, for €156.2 million, a 4% premium to book value. Proceeds of €139 million were applied to debt repayment, reducing pro forma gearing to approximately 52%. Total group debt was €1.35 billion (55% of gross asset value) before the disposal-linked repayment, and cash stood at €140.8 million, including €89.1 million of unrestricted cash.

    Chairman Rónán Murphy said the portfolio, “delivered gross dividend cover of 1.8x whilst decisive action resulted in material progress on a range of strategic initiatives.”

    He highlighted the asset disposal, new power purchase agreements, and an additional Johannesburg Stock Exchange listing as key steps to strengthen the balance sheet.

    Greencoat extended its €350 million revolving credit facility to 2028 and entered swaps to lock in a 3.9% cost of debt through 2030. From October, the weighted average cost of debt is expected to be around 3.4%, compared with 2.9% at midyear.

    The company plans to continue asset recycling, having raised more than €200 million through disposals since late 2024. Murphy noted: “Our strategy continues to adapt to evolving sector and capital market dynamics,”

    adding that the EU’s binding 2030 target of 42.5% renewable generation is supporting demand for clean energy.

    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.