Author: Fiona Craig

Crude prices traded in a narrow range on Monday as investors weighed the prospects of renewed U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations against the likelihood that OPEC+ will move ahead with plans to increase output.

As of 09:10 GMT, Brent crude was down 18 cents, or 0.3%, at $67.52 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 17 cents to $62.72 per barrel.

Market participation was limited, with financial centers in China, South Korea and Taiwan closed for Lunar New Year, alongside the Presidents Day holiday in the United States.

Both benchmarks ended last week lower, with Brent easing roughly 0.5% and WTI shedding about 1%, after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington could potentially reach an agreement with Tehran within a month.

Washington and Tehran are scheduled to meet again in Geneva on Tuesday for a second round of discussions focused on Iran’s nuclear program and preventing further military escalation.

An Iranian diplomat was quoted Sunday as saying Tehran is pursuing a deal with the United States that would bring mutual economic benefits, including cooperation in energy and mining investment as well as aircraft purchases.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials told Reuters that a second aircraft carrier has been deployed to the region and contingency plans are in place for an extended military operation should talks collapse. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned that any strike on Iranian territory could prompt retaliatory action against U.S. military installations.

“An escalation in tensions with Iran could push Brent toward $80 per barrel. A de-escalation would likely send it back toward $60 per barrel,” SEB analysts said in a research note.

Although geopolitical risks have provided some underlying support to prices, expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — known collectively as OPEC+ — may restart production increases from April are capping gains. According to Reuters, the group is leaning toward that decision at its March 1 meeting after a three-month pause in supply adjustments.

Gold prices moved modestly lower on Monday, with silver also under pressure, as markets continued to evaluate the trajectory of U.S. interest rates following the latest inflation readings.

As of 04:25 ET (09:25 GMT), spot gold declined 0.6% to $5,015.40 per ounce, while April gold futures slipped 0.2% to $5,035.25 per ounce.

Spot silver dropped 0.9% to $77.230 per ounce, and platinum fell 1% to $2,057.10 per ounce.

Precious metals have seen pronounced volatility over the past two weeks, with sharp intraday swings, and both gold and silver remain well below their late-January highs.

Trading volumes were muted, with financial markets in China, South Korea, and the United States closed for the session.

Rate uncertainty keeps metals choppy

Gold and silver held onto part of last week’s advances, supported by bargain-hunting and a softer U.S. dollar. Rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran also contributed to safe-haven demand.

Even so, both metals continue to trade beneath their late-January peaks and have experienced erratic price movements as investors grapple with uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next moves.

The late-January downturn in gold followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when Powell’s term ends in May.

Warsh has been perceived as less supportive of aggressive monetary easing, prompting concerns that U.S. financial conditions may remain relatively restrictive in the coming years.

“The market’s attention is gradually shifting to the potential impact of tariffs, which has yet to fully emerge in economic and inflation data, and doubts remain around future Fed credibility. Such a backdrop will intensify investors’ appetite for real assets like gold,” ANZ analysts said in a note, adding that their longer-term outlook for gold remains broadly constructive.

Focus turns to Fed minutes and inflation data

Investors are now awaiting further signals on the U.S. economic outlook, starting with the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting on Wednesday.

The minutes are expected to offer deeper insight into policymakers’ thinking on interest rates, particularly as markets weigh the possibility of a leadership transition at the central bank.

Later this week, December’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — will be published and is likely to influence expectations for the longer-term rate outlook.

Additional U.S. economic releases scheduled for the week include trade data and industrial production figures.

Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) moved lower on Monday, adding to a prolonged downturn that has now stretched into a fourth straight week, as persistent uncertainty over U.S. interest rate policy continued to weigh on demand for high-risk assets.

The leading cryptocurrency slipped after briefly reclaiming the $70,000 level over the weekend. By 00:58 ET, Bitcoin was down 2.7% at $68,409.7.

Strategy says balance sheet resilient even in sharp downturn

Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) — the largest corporate owner of Bitcoin — said Sunday it remains confident in its ability to service its debt even under a severe price correction.

In a social media update, the company stated it can “withstand a drawdown in $BTC price to $8K and still have sufficient assets to fully cover our debt.”

Strategy currently holds 714,644 Bitcoin, financed through a mix of equity issuance and long-term borrowing. Led by outspoken Bitcoin supporter Michael Saylor, the company has continued accumulating the cryptocurrency despite the recent pullback.

Bitcoin has now surrendered roughly half of its value since reaching a record peak near $126,000 in October. The token has been at the center of broader selling pressure in speculative markets, as shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy have prompted investors to dial back risk exposure.

The sustained slide has fueled speculation that Strategy could eventually face pressure to offload part of its holdings to meet liabilities — a scenario Saylor has repeatedly dismissed.

Earlier this month, Strategy reported a $12.4 billion loss for the December quarter, sharply wider than the $670.8 million loss posted a year earlier. Outside of its substantial Bitcoin position, the company generates relatively modest operating income.

Altcoins mirror Bitcoin weakness

The wider crypto market also trended lower, tracking Bitcoin’s ongoing retreat.

Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 6.1% to $1,958.63, while XRP dropped 7.7% to $1.4575.

BNB declined about 4%, with Solana and Cardano losing 5.4% and 6.2%, respectively.

Among meme tokens, Dogecoin slumped 11.4%, while $TRUMP shed 2.4%.

Sentiment across digital assets has remained fragile since October, with both retail and institutional inflows slowing significantly. At the same time, a rally in gold prices and stronger interest in physical safe-haven assets have diverted capital away from cryptocurrencies.

Physiomics plc (LSE:PYC) reported a 51% increase in revenue for the first half of its financial year, with income rising to £498,000 — the strongest half-year performance in the company’s history.

Despite the top-line growth, the group recorded an operating loss of £327,000, wider than the prior year. Management attributed the increased loss to investment in new hires and higher spending on external contractors during the period.

Total operating costs for the six months reached £855,000, while net income came in at negative £301,000.

A notable milestone in the half was the launch of Physiomics’ new Biometrics service line. The division has already secured four initial contracts, providing an early contribution to revenue and supporting broader growth across the business.

For the full fiscal year, the company expects total income to rise by 27% year-on-year. Physiomics also forecasts lower operating expenses in the second half as reliance on external consultants declines.

Management highlighted additional expansion potential from the Biometrics unit and cited a robust pipeline of prospective contracts that could underpin future revenue growth.

The Renewables Infrastructure Group (LSE:TRIG) posted a larger-than-anticipated quarterly decline in net asset value, as softer power price assumptions and higher discount rates for UK offshore wind assets weighed on valuations, pushing the stock 2% lower on Monday.

The renewable energy investment trust reported that NAV decreased 5.2% to 104 pence per share in the fourth quarter, down 5.7 pence from 109.7 pence at the end of September. The move translated into a negative total NAV return of 3.7% for full-year 2025.

Management attributed the decline primarily to a 1.8 pence per share reduction linked to lower consultant power price forecast curves, alongside a 1.2 pence impact from a 50 basis point rise in discount rates applied to UK offshore wind projects. A further 1.8 pence per share drag stemmed from generation coming in below budget and operational challenges.

An additional 0.6 pence per share reduction reflected changes to indexation of UK Renewables Obligation Certificates (ROCs), which will now be tied to the Consumer Price Index rather than the previous benchmark.

Electricity generation was 5% below budget during the fourth quarter, largely due to economic and grid curtailment in Sweden. However, this marked an improvement compared with the first half of 2025, when output fell 10% short of plan. Sweden accounts for roughly 14% of TRIG’s portfolio by NAV and has persistently underperformed expectations, analysts said.

“While generation missed budget by 5% in Q4, this is an improvement versus the performance earlier in the year,” said Joseph Pepper, analyst at RBC Capital Markets, which maintains an “outperform” rating on the stock with a 90 pence price target.

“We think management’s target future cover of 1.1-1.2x looks credible given inflation-linked cash flows and an improving debt amortisation profile, although we note that Sweden remains a consistently underperforming geography in the portfolio.”

TRIG reiterated its dividend target for fiscal 2026 at 7.55 pence per share, unchanged year-on-year. Net dividend cover for fiscal 2025 was reported at 1.0 times. On a gross basis, excluding annual amortising debt repayments, dividend cover stood at 2.1 times. Management continues to guide toward net dividend cover of 1.1 to 1.2 times over the medium term.

The company had previously cautioned that dividend cover would be “tight” for fiscal 2025.

Shares closed Friday at 69.20 pence, implying a discount of about 34% to the newly reported NAV, broadly aligned with the peer group average discount of around 35%.

“Given the quantum of the quarterly movement this morning we would expect shares to trade lower today,” Pepper said.

TRIG’s portfolio includes approximately 90 renewable energy assets across six countries, with about half of its exposure in the UK, leaving it sensitive to domestic regulatory developments and wholesale power price trends. The trust primarily invests in operational wind and solar projects, with UK offshore wind forming a substantial component of its holdings.

ITM Power plc (LSE:ITM) has received a formal Notice to Proceed on a 20MW green hydrogen project after the customer reached a final investment decision, converting a previously announced award into a binding contract.

The project will now be included in ITM’s contracted order backlog, enabling full-scale execution to commence. Management said the development further strengthens the group’s credentials in delivering industrial-scale proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyser systems. Additional details about the scheme are expected to be released toward the end of the first quarter of 2026.

While the contract win underscores continued commercial traction in the green hydrogen sector, the company’s broader outlook remains challenged by persistent losses and negative operating and free cash flow. Technical indicators also reflect a bearish trend, with the share price trading below key long-term moving averages.

However, these pressures are partially offset by signs of operational progress highlighted in recent earnings updates, including record first-half revenue, improved order backlog quality and reiterated growth guidance. ITM also maintains a relatively low-leverage balance sheet, although near-term profitability and cash flow timing risks continue to weigh on investor sentiment.

More about ITM Power

ITM Power plc is a Sheffield-based manufacturer of proton exchange membrane electrolysers used to produce green hydrogen from renewable electricity and water. Founded in 2000 and listed on AIM since 2004, the company focuses on large-scale hydrogen systems designed to support industrial decarbonisation and the transition to net zero energy systems.

SkinBioTherapeutics plc (LSE:SBTX) has identified potential misrepresentation by its former chief executive that calls into question £0.77 million of accrued royalty income previously recognised in its FY25 audited accounts.

As a result, the company now intends to remove the disputed royalty income, reducing reported FY25 revenue to £3.87 million and increasing adjusted EBITDA losses to £1.17 million. The board has initiated a wider review of financial reporting processes and warned that FY26 performance is expected to fall materially short of market expectations.

Despite the setback, management emphasised that core commercial relationships and operating divisions — including Dermatonics and Bio-Tech Solutions — remain intact. Sales of its AxisBiotix™ product line continue, and the company reported cash balances of £2.92 million as of 13 February 2026. Governance changes are under way, with the chairman assuming temporary executive responsibilities while the company searches for an interim and subsequently permanent CEO.

From an investment standpoint, the outlook is weighed down by financial pressures. Although revenue growth has been strong, recurring losses and negative operating and free cash flow represent ongoing risks. Technical indicators remain weak, with the share price in a broader downtrend below key moving averages and MACD in negative territory. Valuation metrics offer limited reassurance given a negative price-to-earnings ratio and no dividend yield.

More about SkinBioTherapeutics

SkinBioTherapeutics plc is a UK-based life sciences company focused on skin health applications derived from its proprietary SkinBiotix® microbiome platform, developed in collaboration with the University of Manchester. The group operates across cosmetic skincare and gut-skin axis supplements under the AxisBiotix™ brand, supported by commercial partnerships and acquisitions in adjacent skincare and cosmetic markets.