Author: Fiona Craig

U.S. equity markets closed higher on Friday, rounding out a robust week driven by strong corporate earnings and encouraging trade developments.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.40%, closing at a record 6,388.64—its 14th all-time high of 2025. The Nasdaq Composite also hit new record territory, finishing up 0.24% at 21,108.32. Both indexes set fresh intraday peaks during Friday’s session. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 208.01 points (0.47%) to 44,901.92, within a quarter percent of its December record close.

Over the course of the week, the Dow gained approximately 1.3%, the Nasdaq added 1%, and the S&P 500 rose 1.5%.

Looking ahead, investors face a week packed with potentially market-moving events. Foremost is the August 1 deadline when President Donald Trump plans to impose higher tariffs on numerous U.S. trading partners unless new trade accords are finalized. This looming threat could introduce volatility into an otherwise steady market.

Key scheduled events also include the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, the July jobs report, and a heavy slate of earnings from some of the largest U.S. corporations.

“August 1 could mean higher tariffs on nearly 60 U.S. trading partners including the EU, as a bloc, the biggest. A rise from the current ~16% US weighted average tariff to perhaps as much as ~21% is a risk,”
UBS economists highlighted in their market note.

Regarding the employment report, UBS expects a “soggy” result but anticipates underlying figures won’t deteriorate beyond June’s levels. The firm forecasts 95,000 new nonfarm payroll jobs for July and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.2%.

“Unexpected strength in the data could upend September rate cut calls,”
the analysts added.

Mag-7 Tech Titans Set to Report Earnings

Investor attention will also focus on earnings from four of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” technology leaders: Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META). Their results carry significant weight in the major indexes due to their massive market capitalizations.

A disappointing set of results or tariff-related worries could unsettle the markets.

“Everything can go right for this astoundingly resilient market,”
said Evercore ISI strategists,
“but as our Investor poll last Friday showed a likelihood that punitive tariffs on at least one country could rattle investors, as could an adverse price reaction from Mag 7 reporters.”

So far, roughly 30% of S&P 500 companies have reported second-quarter earnings, with earnings growth expected at 7.7% year-over-year, according to LSEG IBES. This is an improvement on the 5.8% forecast made at the start of July.

Other notable companies reporting this week include Boeing (NYSE:BA), Spotify (NYSE:SPOT), Booking (NASDAQ:BKNG), Visa (NYSE:V), ARM Holdings (LSE:ARM), and Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM).

Analysts’ Take on Market Direction

Morgan Stanley commented:

“The rolling recovery is underway, and we lean more toward our 12-month bull case (7200). Drivers are positive operating leverage, AI adoption, dollar weakness, cash tax savings, easy growth comparisons, pent-up demand and Fed cuts. Industrials remains our top sector pick.”

RBC Capital Markets observed:

“Even though the S&P 500 has crept higher over the past week, the ability to manage through tariffs has not been uniform. Additionally, discussion of 2026 has been fairly light so far. That makes sense to us given that we are only midway through 2025, but it also poses a risk to the path of stock prices if company outlooks for 2026 don’t end up being as rosy as investors have been anticipating. We continue to be ready for choppy conditions in the stock market in the back half of 2025.”

Evercore ISI noted:

“FOMO and Speculation does not mean that stocks move in a straight line higher, even as it does increase the probability that the long term destination is higher. A market trading at nearly 25x and where complacency is reflected by plunging index volatility faces a barrage of events in the week ahead.”

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Shares of Tasty Plc (LSE:TAST) soared by 54.5% after the casual dining group confirmed advanced discussions with former PizzaExpress CEO David Page about potentially joining its board, fueling optimism over the company’s strategic direction.

The dramatic rally followed a company statement issued in response to recent market activity and media reports. Tasty acknowledged it has held advanced conversations with Page, who previously led PizzaExpress plc and served as Executive Chairman of The Fulham Shore plc.

The company also confirmed ongoing talks with Nicholas Wong, who formerly held the position of Finance Director at Fulham Shore, hinting at further leadership shifts.

Alongside these board-level discussions, Tasty disclosed that it is “evaluating funding options with a view to investing in future strategic opportunities,” with a possible equity placing under consideration.

Tasty stated it will provide additional updates “as and when appropriate.”

The sharp stock rally reflects renewed investor confidence, spurred by the prospect of bringing seasoned executives with proven track records in the restaurant industry into the fold.

Page’s experience leading well-known brands could pave the way for a refreshed strategy at the AIM-listed chain, which operates in the increasingly tough casual dining segment—a space challenged by rising operational costs and shifting consumer behaviors.

The company’s interest in new funding avenues suggests it may be gearing up for expansion, restructuring, or a strategic repositioning as it navigates the evolving market landscape.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Gold prices declined on Monday, pressured by warnings from Bank of America that further weakness could spark a wave of stop-loss selling by commodity trading advisors (CTAs). The yellow metal has been under sustained pressure over the past week, with prices nearing levels that could prompt algorithmic traders to start unwinding bullish bets.

According to a note from Bank of America, medium- to long-term trend-following funds are likely holding close to their maximum long positions in gold. The bank’s models suggest that a drop of between 1% and 3.5% in futures prices from current levels could “accelerate stop-loss selling” as these systematic traders rush to exit positions to cap their losses.

The bank’s commentary also extended to other areas of the commodities space. It pointed to a mixed outlook in copper markets, where CME copper futures could attract more buying from long-term trend followers, while contracts on the London Metal Exchange are facing downside pressure. This split, Bank of America noted, reflects differing regional trading dynamics and sentiment.

In agriculture, Bank of America flagged significant positioning imbalances in soybean-related products. It characterized soybean oil as being “stretched long,” while noting that soybean meal positions are “stretched short.” Such asymmetry in positioning could lead to sharp moves in either direction.

Notably, the bank sees soybean meal as especially vulnerable to a reversal. A shift in sentiment could prompt short-covering from CTAs, leading to what Bank of America described as a “significant move higher” if bullish momentum takes hold.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Shares of FirstGroup (LSE:FGP) climbed 3% following the company’s announcement that it has acquired Tetley’s Motor Services Limited, a coach and bus operator headquartered in Leeds.

This deal adds 55 vehicles to FirstGroup’s existing fleet, as well as a sizeable depot located in central Leeds, right next to one of First Bus’s current facilities. Tetley’s Coaches reported an EBIT of £1.4 million on revenues of £5.3 million for the year ending March 31, 2024.

Tetley’s offers a variety of transport services, including routes for schools, universities, employee shuttles, and private hires across Leeds and West Yorkshire. Many of Tetley’s contracts have been recently renewed, lending added stability to its operations. Ian Tetley, Managing Director of Tetley’s Coaches, will stay on through the transition period as the company integrates with First Bus.

“We view FirstGroup’s series of bus bolt-on acquisitions favourably, so welcome another margin-accretive deal, which would further diversify Bus revenues. We think FirstGroup has generally paid lower transaction multiples than both our valuation, and also the market-implied valuation of Bus, meaning these bolt-ons are not reliant on potential synergies to be accretive,” commented analysts from RBC.

This acquisition marks another strategic effort by FirstGroup to grow its transportation business through focused purchases within the UK market.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

On Monday, the U.S. dollar rallied as the euro retreated, spurred by the announcement of a trade agreement between the United States and the European Union, just ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

By 04:25 ET (08:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six other major currencies, had risen 0.4% to 97.815. Despite the gain, it was still set for a roughly 1% decline over the week, marking its weakest stretch in a month.

Trade pact bolsters dollar; eyes on Fed meeting

U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled the deal over the weekend in Scotland. The agreement sets a 15% import tariff on European goods entering the U.S., halving the initially threatened 30% rate scheduled for early next month.

Trump highlighted that the European Union intends to invest around $600 billion in the U.S. economy and significantly increase its purchases of American energy and military equipment.

This deal closely follows a similar agreement reached last week with Japan, where Tokyo committed to investing approximately $550 billion in the U.S., paired with a 15% tariff on its vehicle and other imports.

As worries about the economic impact of steep tariffs fade, market focus is shifting toward upcoming economic indicators and central bank meetings, especially the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later this week.

“The U.S. macro data includes jobs data (JOLTS Tuesday, NFP Friday), a likely bounce back in second quarter GDP on Wednesday and stickier inflation on Thursday (June core PCE), which should tick back up to 0.3% month-on-month,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

“This should leave the majority of the Federal Reserve comfortable in their patient position on interest rates (FOMC meeting on Wednesday) and see a further pricing out of the prospects of a September Fed rate cut.”

Euro falls further

In European markets, the EUR/USD pair dropped 0.5% to 1.1688, pulling back from the near four-year peak reached earlier this month after the trade deal announcement.

“With a speculative market already reasonably long euros and a 2% per annum cost of carry against the dollar to deal with, we do not see the case for EUR/USD to immediately push through the highs at 1.1830,” ING analysts commented.

“Instead, we have a bias for EUR/USD drifting below 1.1700 and perhaps all the way to 1.1600 if the Fed continues to resist pressure to cut rates this Wednesday.”

Following last week’s decision by the European Central Bank to hold interest rates steady, market attention turns to the release of second-quarter GDP data on Wednesday and the eurozone’s July flash inflation figure on Friday, both key to assessing the likelihood of a rate cut in September.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD slipped 0.2% to 1.3409 amid concerns over Britain’s struggling economy and the government’s plans to raise taxes this autumn to shore up public finances.

“We favor a retest of decent support at 1.3370, below which losses can accelerate – perhaps all the way to 1.3150 if the US data/FOMC event risk this week is dollar positive enough,” ING said.

Yen weakens ahead of BOJ meeting

Elsewhere, USD/JPY climbed 0.4% to 148.25, as the Bank of Japan prepares to maintain its interest rates on Thursday amid global trade stability and domestic political uncertainty.

Analysts note that the U.S.-Japan trade agreement signed last week could give policymakers some leeway to consider a rate hike later this year.

Still, investor sentiment remains cautious due to ongoing political uncertainty following the ruling coalition’s loss in last week’s upper house elections and speculation around Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s potential resignation.

The Australian dollar lost 0.7% to 0.6521, giving back some of last week’s strong gains, while the Chinese yuan edged up 0.1% to 7.1738 against the dollar.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Oil prices in Asian markets edged higher on Monday after slipping to three-week lows, buoyed by news that the United States and the European Union reached a trade agreement easing tariff concerns and raising hopes for stronger energy demand ahead.

By 21:47 ET (01:47 GMT), September Brent crude futures increased 0.3% to $68.66 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose 0.3% to $65.36 per barrel.

This modest recovery followed last Friday’s dip to three-week lows, which was driven by anticipated boosts in Venezuelan oil exports.

“A trade deal between the US and EU proved positive for sentiment this morning in the oil market. However, attention will likely turn to OPEC+ output policy from September,” ING analysts commented in their report.

Positive Trade Sentiment Fueled by US-EU Framework

Market optimism was lifted by Sunday’s announcement of a broad trade framework between the US and EU. The deal features a 15% tariff on European goods entering the US, a significant reduction from the initially proposed 30%.

Additionally, the EU agreed to purchase $750 billion worth of American energy products over several years. The pact also involves the EU committing to invest $600 billion in the US economy and acquire hundreds of billions of dollars in US military equipment.

By reducing trade frictions, the deal is expected to stimulate economic growth and cross-border trade, both of which drive oil demand through increased transportation and industrial energy consumption.

The energy component of the deal further supported oil prices by reinforcing expectations for sustained US exports, especially of liquefied natural gas and crude oil.

Improved risk sentiment also helped, as fears of an imminent trade war eased. Yet, investors remain cautious as President Donald Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline approaches, seeking clarity on potential shifts in US trade policies.

OPEC+ Supply Adjustments and Fed Meeting in Focus

Despite gains, oil prices remain capped due to expectations of rising supply. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are anticipated to increase production moderately in August. Meanwhile, Venezuelan crude may re-enter global markets should US sanctions be relaxed.

An OPEC+ panel will convene later Monday to assess market conditions ahead of the full committee’s August 3 meeting, where September production targets will be finalized. Media reports suggest another output increase is likely.

“We expect that OPEC+ will at least complete the full return of 2.2m b/d of the additional voluntary supply cuts by the end of September,” ING analysts said.

“This would work out to a supply hike in September of at least 280k b/d. However, there is clearly room for a more aggressive hike,” they added.

Meanwhile, investors are also focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming two-day policy meeting starting Tuesday. The US central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady, but market participants will be watching closely for any hints about a possible rate cut later this year.

Key economic data due this week, including the June PCE inflation index and the July jobs report, will further shape market expectations.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

U.S. stock futures edged higher following the announcement of a key trade agreement between the United States and the European Union, a move that averts the risk of a potentially harmful trade war. Attention now shifts to the U.S.-China negotiations in Sweden, where reports suggest the world’s two largest economies might extend their current trade truce. Adding to the market’s focus is the looming August 1 deadline for increased “reciprocal” U.S. tariffs on several countries, alongside a busy week filled with major corporate earnings, vital economic indicators, and a highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate announcement.

Futures Show Gains

Investors appeared optimistic Monday as futures for major U.S. stock indexes rose, reflecting confidence after significant trade developments and in anticipation of upcoming earnings reports and economic data.

By 03:25 ET, Dow futures had gained 146 points (0.3%), S&P 500 futures added 25 points (0.4%), and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 127 points (0.5%).

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, both technology-heavy indexes, ended Friday’s session at record highs, extending Wall Street’s recent positive momentum. Strong quarterly earnings and greater clarity on U.S. tariff policies have helped bolster equities in recent weeks.

European markets also closed at a four-month peak, providing a positive backdrop for U.S. trading.

The U.S.-EU Trade Agreement

President Donald Trump announced on Sunday in Scotland that the U.S. and EU have reached a landmark trade deal including a 15% tariff on European goods entering America.

The agreement covers major EU purchases of U.S. energy and military equipment, as well as substantial investment commitments to the U.S. economy.

“They are agreeing to open up their countries to trade at zero tariff,” Trump told reporters. He added that the EU would “purchase a vast amount of military equipment” from the U.S.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed the deal includes a 15% tariff applied broadly, which she said would “rebalance” trade between the two major partners. Last year, the U.S. imported $3.3 trillion in goods, with more than $600 billion coming from the 27-member EU.

This agreement should ease investor concerns, especially with the August 1 deadline approaching for Trump’s planned “reciprocal” tariffs. The EU was facing increased duties of up to 30% and had pushed for a zero-for-zero tariff agreement.

U.S.-China Talks Expected to Extend Trade Truce

The U.S. and China are anticipated to extend their tariff truce by another 90 days in trade talks starting Monday in Stockholm, according to the South China Morning Post, citing sources close to the negotiations.

The temporary suspension of most tariffs, agreed in May, is due to expire on August 12.

Sources told SCMP the talks will focus on unresolved issues, including U.S. concerns about China’s industrial overcapacity, rather than immediate breakthroughs.

During this extension, neither side plans to introduce new tariffs or escalate tensions. Beijing is expected to seek clarification on the 20% tariffs imposed in March on Chinese goods over fentanyl concerns.

Trump said Sunday that the U.S. is “very close” to a deal with China but gave no further details. Meanwhile, China’s People’s Daily editorial emphasized Beijing’s commitment to resolving disputes through “equal dialogue and mutual respect.”

The Financial Times also reported that the U.S. has paused tech export restrictions to China to avoid disrupting talks.

A Packed Week Ahead

Analysts at ING describe the coming week as “massive” for the U.S. economy, with possible new trade deals expected before August 1. Major tech giants such as Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon are due to release earnings.

Important economic reports include July’s nonfarm payrolls and a closely watched inflation figure, while the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Though Trump has applied pressure on the Fed to cut rates quickly, officials are widely expected to keep borrowing costs steady. Policymakers have indicated a “wait-and-see” stance, partly due to uncertainty over tariff impacts on the economy.

Gold Remains Steady

Gold prices held firm Monday as a weaker dollar offset increased risk appetite following the U.S.-EU trade deal.

Investors exercised caution ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision, eager to hear guidance on the U.S. economy’s outlook for the second half of 2025.

Spot gold rose 0.1% to $3,340.02 an ounce, with futures up 0.1% to $3,396.67 by 03:29 ET.

Oil prices also benefited from optimism around the trade pact, while improved market sentiment lifted Bitcoin.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

European equity markets surged on Monday after the United States and the European Union finalized a trade agreement, easing concerns over a potential tariff war between the two major economic blocs and offering businesses greater certainty moving forward.

By 03:05 ET (07:05 GMT), Germany’s DAX index had advanced 0.8%, France’s CAC 40 jumped 1.2%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 gained 0.5%.

Details of the EU-U.S. trade accord

Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a framework trade deal with the European Union, which sets a 15% import tariff on most EU products. In return, the EU pledged investments totaling approximately $600 billion in the U.S. economy.

While the agreed 15% tariff rate exceeded Europe’s initial aim of zero tariffs on both sides, it was broadly welcomed as a better alternative to the previously threatened 30% tariff.

This agreement offers companies much-needed clarity and helps prevent a significant breakdown in trade relations between two blocs that represent nearly a third of global commerce.

The 15% tariff level aligns with a similar deal reached last week between the U.S. and Japan, reflecting the rapid pace at which nations are moving to secure trade agreements with the U.S. before the August 1 deadline for new tariffs on goods from various countries.

Meanwhile, U.S.-China trade talks are scheduled to resume Monday in Stockholm as both economic superpowers attempt to resolve ongoing disputes.

At the same time, oil futures also gained momentum. Brent crude increased by 0.8% to $68.18 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate rose 0.8% to $65.71 per barrel. The prospect of additional trade deals involving the U.S. has supported energy markets ahead of the looming tariff deadlines.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Valterra Platinum (LSE:VALT) reported a sharp 81% drop in profit for the first half of the year, citing reduced production and financial impacts from its recent spin-off from Anglo American Platinum (LSE:AAL).

The South African producer of platinum group metals recorded headline earnings of 1.2 billion rand ($67.62 million) for the six months ending June 30, significantly down from 6.5 billion rand during the same period in 2023.

PGM sales volumes declined by 25% year-on-year, with the company selling 1.48 million ounces in the first half. The drop in output was largely the result of flooding at its Amandelbult site, which was affected by intense rainfall in February.

In line with the earnings slump, Valterra declared an interim dividend of 2 rand per share—a 79% decrease compared to last year’s mid-year distribution.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

OptiBiotix Health plc (LSE:OPTI) reported significant financial growth in the first half of 2025, with gross revenue increasing by 102% and gross profit rising 173% compared to the same period in 2024. The company expanded its customer base notably in Asia and the USA, and expects continued sales momentum driven by new product launches and strategic partnerships.

Cost reductions and improved margins are anticipated to further boost profitability, positioning OptiBiotix for substantial growth in shareholder value.

More about OptiBiotix Health

Founded in March 2012, OptiBiotix Health plc operates in the life sciences sector, specializing in developing compounds that modify the human microbiome to prevent and manage conditions such as obesity, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes. The company collaborates with international food and healthcare supplement firms to integrate its microbiome modulators into a variety of food products and beverages, while also developing its own consumer supplements and health products.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.