Author: Fiona Craig

U.S. equity futures pointed higher early Wednesday, signaling that stocks may extend the upside momentum seen in the previous session.

Futures held their gains after new data from ADP showed an unexpected decline in private-sector hiring for November. The payrolls firm reported a drop of 32,000 jobs, reversing a revised 47,000 increase in October. Economists had been looking for a modest gain of around 10,000 jobs.

The surprise contraction has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver another rate cut when policymakers meet next week. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders now assign an 88.8% probability to a reduction of 25 basis points.

Risk appetite is also getting a lift from another strong move in Bitcoin, which is up more than 2% in early trading following a sharp rally on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, U.S. markets spent much of the day swinging between gains and losses but ultimately closed higher, recovering some of Monday’s weakness. The Nasdaq added 0.6% to finish at 23,413.67. The Dow climbed 0.4% to 47,474.46, and the S&P 500 advanced 0.3% to 6,829.37.

The rebound in crypto played a notable role in Tuesday’s upbeat tone. Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) surged more than 6% after plunging the day before. Momentum in Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), one of the market’s bellwether AI stocks, also helped support broader sentiment.

Chipmakers led the advance, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumping 1.8%. Hardware names were also strong, as the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index rose 1.7%.

Airline and telecom shares saw healthy gains, while companies tied to gold, natural gas, and oil retreated.

Still, overall conviction among traders remained cautious, with markets eyeing several upcoming U.S. economic releases that could influence expectations heading into next week’s Fed announcement.

European equities were uneven on Wednesday as traders weighed a new batch of regional economic reports.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1%, while France’s CAC 40 inched up 0.1% and Germany’s DAX advanced 0.3%.

New figures from S&P Global showed that the eurozone’s private sector grew at its fastest pace since May 2023, with both services and manufacturing contributing to the expansion. The HCOB final composite output index rose to 52.8 in November from 52.5 in October, coming in above the flash estimate of 52.4.

The survey indicated that services activity strengthened during the month, although factory output grew at its slowest rate in nine months.

In a separate release, Eurostat reported that eurozone producer prices edged up 0.1% in October, reversing a 0.1% decline in September. Stripping out energy, producer prices were unchanged for the fourth consecutive month.

Among individual stocks, Inditex surged after the Zara parent posted a 10.6% jump in sales early in the fourth quarter, supported by demand for its autumn and winter collections.

Airbus (EU:AIR) also traded higher in Paris after reaffirming its full-year adjusted EBIT outlook.

On the downside, Hugo Boss (TG:BOSS) dropped sharply after the German fashion company warned that sales and profits are likely to decline in 2026 before returning to growth the following year.

Sainsbury’s (LSE:SBRY) also retreated after Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund offloaded roughly £266 million ($352 million) worth of shares in the U.K. supermarket group.

Glencore (LSE:GLEN) detailed a major expansion roadmap for its copper division on Wednesday, saying it has substantially reduced risks across its asset base and is now positioned to lift output above 1 million tonnes a year by late 2028. The miner is also targeting roughly 1.6 million tonnes of annual production by 2035 as part of its longer-term strategy.

Between 2026 and 2029, Glencore expects copper-equivalent output to grow at a compound rate of 4% annually, with copper alone projected to expand at a much faster 9.4% over the same period.

A key component of that growth will come from the planned restart of the Alumbrera mine in Argentina. The company said operations are set to resume in the fourth quarter of 2026, with initial production scheduled for the first half of 2028. Over its expected four-year operating window, the revived mine is forecast to deliver around 75,000 tonnes of copper, 317,000 ounces of gold, and 1,000 tonnes of molybdenum.

CEO Gary Nagle said Glencore has tightened its industrial operating framework “to ensure accountability and ownership to deliver safe and reliable performance.” He added that bringing Alumbrera back online will act as “a natural enabler” for the larger Minera Agua Rica–Alumbrera (MARA) project by supporting workforce continuity, reducing ramp-up risk, and preserving essential infrastructure.

Nagle also emphasized that the copper division is expected to finance its own development pipeline, though Glencore will remain open to “value-accretive partnering/investor opportunities to reduce financial and operational risks in certain projects.”

The company noted that its coal and energy operations continue to play an important strategic role in meeting global energy and infrastructure requirements. Over the past five years, Glencore has returned $25.3 billion to shareholders.

Crude prices moved higher on Wednesday, erasing early declines, as traders grew increasingly skeptical that ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace discussions would lead to any easing of sanctions on Russian oil. Gains remained modest, however, with persistent worries about oversupply continuing to restrain the market.

By 08:16 GMT, Brent crude was up 26 cents, or 0.4%, at $62.71 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 29 cents, or 0.53%, to $58.95. Both benchmarks had dropped more than 1% in Tuesday’s session.

In a research note, analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote that “Oil markets and prediction markets do not appear to price a large probability of a near-term peace agreement and removal of the sanctions on Russia oil.”

According to the Russian government, a five-hour discussion between President Vladimir Putin and senior envoys representing U.S. President Donald Trump ended without breakthrough, leaving both sides without a compromise on a possible Ukraine peace deal. Traders are watching closely for any progress that could eventually lift sanctions on Russian energy firms such as Rosneft and Lukoil, freeing up supplies that are currently restricted.

Concerns deepened after Putin charged on Tuesday that European governments were obstructing U.S. efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict, saying their proposals were “absolutely unacceptable” to Moscow. The remarks reinforced expectations that Russian barrels will continue flowing mainly to China and India, at least for now.

Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, noted that despite pessimism over the talks, “concerns over an oversupply glut and soft demand continue to weigh on the crude oil price, which must remain above support in the mid $50’s to avoid a deeper setback.”

The war, now in its third year following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, has widened beyond the front lines, with Kyiv increasingly targeting Russian energy sites using drones. Recent strikes on export terminals along the Black Sea have underscored the geopolitical risks surrounding supply.

Adding to the bearish pressures, U.S. inventory data pointed to another build in crude and fuel stocks. Market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures said U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.48 million barrels in the week ending November 28. Gasoline stocks grew by 3.14 million barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 2.88 million.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is set to publish the official government numbers later on Wednesday.

Gold prices were little changed during Wednesday’s Asian session, with investors opting for caution ahead of several major U.S. economic releases and the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week, where a rate cut is widely anticipated.

Spot gold was flat at $4,204.55 an ounce at 02:45 ET (07:45 GMT), while U.S. gold futures added 0.4% to $4,235.75. Earlier this week, bullion touched its highest level in six weeks at $4,264.29.

Dovish Fed expectations and weaker dollar underpin gold

Expectations for easier monetary policy remain the primary driver of sentiment. CME’s FedWatch tool shows markets assigning nearly a 90% chance of a rate cut when the Fed meets on December 9–10.

The softening policy outlook has pushed the U.S. dollar toward its weakest point since mid-November, making gold cheaper for overseas buyers and supporting demand.

Recent U.S. data has also pointed to cooling economic momentum, strengthening the case for a policy shift. Traders are now waiting for two key releases: Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls report and Friday’s delayed September PCE inflation print — both crucial indicators for Fed officials.

Speculation grows over potential Fed leadership change

Adding to the dovish narrative is talk of a possible change at the top of the Fed. Reports suggest that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, known for favoring lower interest rates, has emerged as a leading candidate to replace current Chair Jerome Powell.

The possibility of a leadership transition toward a more rate-friendly figure has boosted gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Other metals see muted moves

Trading was restrained across precious and industrial metals as markets remained wary ahead of next week’s Fed decision.

Silver futures were steady at $58.67 an ounce, slightly below the record $59.65 level.
Platinum futures slipped 1.2% to $1,663.60 an ounce.

Copper saw modest gains, with London Metal Exchange benchmark futures up 0.5% at $11,255.20 a tonne, while U.S. copper futures rose 0.7% to $5.29 a pound.

Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) powered higher on Wednesday, reclaiming the $93,000 level after tumbling toward $84,000 at the start of the week. Traders pointed to a more constructive regulatory tone in the U.S. as well as stronger conviction that the Federal Reserve could lower borrowing costs in the coming days.

As of 02:19 ET (07:19 GMT), Bitcoin was up 7.2%, trading at $93,101.6.

The rebound follows a sharp slide that briefly pulled the token below $85,000 — extending an approximately 33% correction from the record highs above $126,000 set in early October.

SEC remarks and Vanguard’s policy shift bolster sentiment

A large part of the renewed optimism stemmed from comments by SEC Chair Paul Atkins, who reaffirmed that the regulator intends to roll out a revamped framework for crypto markets, including a proposed “innovation exemption.”
The initiative is expected to provide updated guidance surrounding the issuance, storage, and trading of digital assets as the agency works to modernize its oversight.

Institutional confidence also received a boost from Vanguard’s surprise policy reversal. The asset-management giant — the second largest in the world — said it will begin permitting trades in cryptocurrency-linked ETFs and mutual funds on its brokerage platform this week.
The decision opens the door to regulated crypto exposure for millions of investors and highlights the asset class’s increasing acceptance across traditional finance.

Bitcoin also drew support from rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, a development that often boosts appetite for dollar-priced risk assets.

Even so, the violent price swings seen recently have kept some traders wary, with many questioning whether the rally can sustain itself.

Altcoins surge as broader crypto market rebounds

The upswing extended across the digital asset landscape.

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, jumped 10% to $3,062.92.

XRP climbed 9.3% to $2.20, maintaining its position as the third-biggest token by market cap.

Solana rallied 12%, Cardano surged 14%, and Polygon strengthened 7%.

In the meme-token category, Dogecoin advanced 11% and $TRUMP gained 5.7%.

The U.S. dollar edged lower on Wednesday, with markets increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve will deliver a rate cut next week. The British pound, meanwhile, continued to hold steady after gaining ground following last week’s U.K. budget announcement.

At 04:30 ET (09:30 GMT), the Dollar Index — which measures the currency against six major peers — slipped 0.2% to 99.107, positioning it for a yearly drop exceeding 8%.

Fed expectations dominate as Hassett speculation builds

Momentum toward a December 10 rate cut has strengthened as recent U.S. data has pointed to cooling economic conditions, placing pressure on the greenback.

Fresh indicators are also on deck this week, with the ADP private-sector employment report due later Wednesday and the November PCE inflation reading scheduled for Friday.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now assign an 88% probability to a 25-basis-point cut — a sharp increase from the roughly 63% likelihood priced one month ago.

The dollar has also been weighed down by speculation that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett could be chosen as the next Federal Reserve Chair. Hassett, who previously served as a senior economist at the central bank, is considered an ally of President Donald Trump and a proponent of quicker interest-rate reductions.

ING analysts noted: “Heading into Thanksgiving, betting markets gave roughly a 35% probability for both Hassett and [Christopher] Waller as the next Fed chair. This week, Hassett’s probability has shot up to 85%.”

They added: “Given perceptions of Hassett as quite dovish, the dollar is a little weaker across the board, the yield curve has seen some modest bullish steepening and risk assets have turned gently bid. This could be the dominant theme until next week’s FOMC meeting.”

Euro advances toward strongest yearly gain since 2017

EUR/USD climbed 0.2% to 1.1643, leaving the currency pair on track for annual gains above 12% — a performance that would mark its best year in eight years.

The European Central Bank is set to meet in mid-December, with markets widely expecting policymakers to keep rates unchanged after lowering them by 200 basis points between January and June.

Survey data released earlier Wednesday showed that eurozone business activity grew at its fastest pace in two and a half years in November, thanks to a strong services sector offsetting continued weakness in manufacturing.

ING commented: “If EUR/USD can nudge through the 1.1655/70 area – perhaps with the help of some softer US data – we could see a decent move through 1.17. We retain a year-end target of 1.18.”

GBP/USD rose 0.3% to 1.3259, trading near its highest level in a month. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said last week’s fiscal update delivered “a set of measures fairly close to market expectations,” avoiding the potential pitfalls that could have undermined the currency.

They added that the announcement “steered clear of the more currency-negative outcomes of either a larger near-term fiscal contraction than anticipated or of delivering too little of an overall consolidation that sees a reintroduction of U.K. fiscal risk premium in the currency.”

Aussie dollar rises on upbeat GDP; yen holds firm

Across Asian markets, USD/JPY eased 0.1% to 155.75, with rising expectations that the Bank of Japan could lift interest rates this month — a stark contrast with the U.S., where an 85% chance of a Fed cut is already priced in.

USD/CNY slipped 0.1% to 7.0654. AUD/USD gained 0.3% to 0.6576, reaching a one-month high after Australia’s third-quarter GDP report showed that annual growth accelerated to 2.1%, the strongest pace in two years, even as quarterly growth fell short of forecasts at 0.4%.

U.S. markets looked steadier on Wednesday, with futures edging upward after the risk-off mood at the start of the week began to ease. Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) staged a strong comeback above $90,000, government bond markets calmed, and Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) surged in after-hours trading following a major acquisition announcement and stronger-than-expected guidance. Traders are also preparing for key U.S. hiring data, while oil prices firm amid stalled Russia-Ukraine peace discussions.

U.S. futures point to a firmer open

American equity futures signaled a positive start, suggesting the sharp moves in crypto and fixed income earlier in the week may be losing momentum.
As of 02:27 ET, Dow futures were up 0.2% (105 points), S&P 500 futures gained 0.2% (15 points), and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2% (63 points).

Wall Street’s main indices finished higher on Tuesday, shrugging off the early-week pullback as attention shifted back to the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting. According to CME FedWatch, markets are pricing an 87% chance of a quarter-point reduction, reflecting expectations that policymakers will prioritize supporting a weakening labor market even with inflation still sticky.

Adding to the policy backdrop, President Donald Trump said he intends to announce his pick for the next Fed Chair in early 2026 and has narrowed the choice to a single candidate. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is widely believed to be the leading contender and is expected to favor easier monetary conditions.

Crypto and bond markets stabilize

Bitcoin rebounded sharply after a steep selloff earlier in the week.
At 02:58 ET, the cryptocurrency was up nearly 7% at $93,016, trading at its highest level in around two weeks, though still well off its record high set about six weeks ago.

The earlier slump stemmed from speculation that the Bank of Japan may lift interest rates, triggering a global bond selloff that spilled over into risk assets—including crypto. The downturn hit Bitcoin-linked companies particularly hard, especially Michael Saylor’s Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), which disclosed holdings of around 650,000 BTC and subsequently cut its annual earnings forecast.

After steep losses on Monday, Strategy’s shares clawed back some ground Tuesday and saw slight gains in extended trading.

Marvell makes a major AI-focused acquisition

Marvell Technology confirmed a multibillion-dollar agreement to acquire AI-chip startup Celestial AI, part of its push to expand its computing and data-center capabilities amid soaring demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The $3.25 billion purchase gives Marvell access to Celestial’s photonics technology, which uses light rather than electrical signals to move data between AI accelerators and memory chips—an approach expected to be adopted by major cloud providers as soon as 2027.

Marvell expects the deal to begin contributing meaningful revenue in the second half of fiscal 2028. CEO Matt Murphy told investors the company anticipates roughly $10 billion in revenue next fiscal year, driven by a 25% increase in data-center revenue and a 20% rise in its custom chip business.

The stock, which has slumped this year over competitive concerns and debate about an “AI bubble,” jumped more than 8% in after-hours trading.

Key ADP hiring data on deck

Attention turns next to November’s ADP private-payrolls report. Economists expect job creation to slow sharply to 5,000 positions, down from 42,000 in October.

Labor market data has taken on greater significance due to a shortage of official economic releases during the recent U.S. government shutdown. October’s nonfarm payrolls report was scrapped entirely and will be merged with November’s dataset—meaning October’s unemployment rate will never be published.

With limited data available, investors and policymakers are relying more heavily on ADP for clues on employment conditions.

Oil prices edge higher

Crude oil prices inched upward as prospects for an immediate peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine faded, keeping supply risks elevated. Brent crude rose 0.6% to $62.80 per barrel, while WTI advanced 0.7% to $59.06.

A meeting late Tuesday between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner ended without progress on a potential agreement. Market participants are watching closely to see whether any breakthrough could eventually lead to a reduction in sanctions on Russian energy producers.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude stocks increased by 2.48 million barrels last week, according to API data, stoking fresh worries about oversupply. Official inventory data from the Energy Information Administration is due later today.

European equity markets traded slightly higher on Wednesday, with investors assessing fresh activity data and looking ahead to remarks from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

At 08:05 GMT, Germany’s DAX was up 0.4% and France’s CAC 40 gained 0.1%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1%.

Positive Lead from Asia

European shares received a generally upbeat handover from Asia, where expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut next week continued to build. U.S. tech stocks helped lift Wall Street to a modestly higher close overnight.

With December historically a supportive month for equities, sentiment remains constructive. Markets now price an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed cut next week.

Lagarde to Speak Later Today

ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to deliver a speech later in the session, and investors will analyze her comments for indications on the Bank’s interest-rate path.

Eurozone inflation ticked up slightly to 2.2% in November from 2.1% in October—still close to the ECB’s 2% target.

“We have practically achieved (our goal), and the inflation rate will continue to fluctuate around this value in the near future,” ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel, who also heads the Bundesbank, told Stern magazine on Tuesday.

Later today, the Eurozone composite PMI for November will be released, with expectations pointing to a gradual improvement in economic conditions.

Corporate Updates

Inditex reported a 10.6% increase in revenue for the four weeks to 1 December, underlining its resilience as consumer sentiment softens across the apparel industry.

Hugo Boss (TG:BOSS) announced plans to target an operating profit margin of roughly 12% over the medium to long term as part of a strategic overhaul.

Airbus (EU:AIR) cut its 2025 commercial aircraft delivery forecast to around 790 units, citing fuselage-panel quality issues affecting the A320 programme.

Oil Prices Edge Up

Crude prices ticked higher on Wednesday amid diminishing hopes for a near-term resolution to the war in Ukraine, keeping supply risks elevated.

Brent rose 0.5% to $62.74 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate also gained 0.5% to $58.94.

Talks late Tuesday between Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner ended without a peace agreement, leaving existing sanctions intact. A breakthrough could ease constraints on Russian oil supply.

Oil markets are watching for developments closely. Meanwhile, rising U.S. crude inventories added to oversupply concerns after API data showed a 2.48 million-barrel build for the week ending 28 November. Official figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration are due later today.

UK equities opened weaker on Wednesday, with the FTSE 100 turning negative even as the pound regained ground against the dollar, moving back toward the $1.32 level. European markets showed a mixed tone.

By 08:23 GMT, the FTSE 100 was down 0.1%, while GBP/USD ticked up 0.2% to 1.32. Germany’s DAX rose 0.3%, and France’s CAC 40 dipped 0.09%.

UK Corporate Highlights

Paragon Banking Group PLC (LSE:PAG)
Paragon delivered a 4% beat on pre-provision profit but cautioned investors that tighter margins lie ahead. Statutory profit before tax for the year to 30 September rose 1.1% to £256.5 million. Operating profit before adjusting items nudged up 0.4% to £293.9 million, while pre-provision profit grew a stronger 5.9% to £335.8 million. For 2026, the group expects a net interest margin of 290–300 basis points, indicating possible earnings pressure.

Spire Healthcare Group plc (LSE:SPI)
Spire said it now anticipates FY25 adjusted EBITDA to land near the bottom of its £270–£285 million range, despite solid recent trading. Revenue grew 3.6% in the July–October period, following 4.9% growth in the first half.

Weir Group PLC (LSE:WEIR)
Weir reaffirmed its outlook from July, maintaining expectations for growth in both constant-currency revenue and operating profit. The group continues to target around 20% operating margins and free operating cash conversion in the 90–100% range.

Bloomsbury Publishing PLC (LSE:BMY)
Bloomsbury unveiled a strategic partnership with Google Cloud to bolster innovation across AI-driven learning tools and core publishing systems. The collaboration will leverage technologies such as NotebookLM, Vertex AI, Gemini Enterprise, and LearnLM—Google’s optimized model for learning and knowledge synthesis.

Smiths Group PLC (LSE:SMIN)
Smiths Group will divest its Smiths Detection division to CVC Capital Partners–advised funds for an enterprise value of £2.0 billion, equivalent to 16.3× headline operating profit. Combined with the recent sale of Smiths Interconnect, the group expects total net proceeds of roughly £1.85 billion. Completion is targeted for the second half of 2026, pending regulatory approvals and consultation with France’s works council.

HSBC Holdings PLC (LSE:HSBA)
HSBC has announced the appointment of Brendan Nelson as Group Chair. Nelson, who stepped in as interim chair on 1 October, joined the board in September 2023. His appointment follows an extensive internal and external search process.

Thames Water
Thames Water warned of a “material uncertainty which may cast significant doubt” on its ability to continue operating as a going concern. Serving 16 million customers in southeast England, the company signaled that a move into special administration—a temporary form of government control—could occur “in the very near term” if terms for a lender-led takeover are not finalized.