Author: Fiona Craig

Oil markets traded lower on Thursday after a renewed ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon reduced some geopolitical anxiety, although declining U.S. inventories continued to highlight underlying supply concerns.

Brent crude fell 1.5% to $96.30 per barrel, while WTI crude lost 1.2% to trade at $94.84 per barrel.

The decline followed a strong advance earlier in the week that had lifted both benchmarks to their highest levels in more than seven days.

Diplomatic Progress Brings Temporary Relief

Investors continued to monitor the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States, which remains a major driver of energy market volatility.

Recent military activity included reported Iranian attacks targeting Gulf infrastructure and U.S. operations near the Strait of Hormuz, while Israeli forces maintained pressure on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon.

A ceasefire agreement announced on Wednesday between Israel and Lebanon provided some optimism that regional tensions may begin to ease. The arrangement remains conditional on Hezbollah ending military operations, although the group did not participate directly in the negotiations.

Despite the agreement, broader talks between Washington and Tehran remain stalled, leaving uncertainty over the future of regional oil exports and maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Sentiment improved somewhat after President Donald Trump suggested that Iran had agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons and indicated that additional military action would be avoided unless U.S. personnel were harmed.

Political developments in Washington also attracted attention after the House of Representatives approved a measure aimed at limiting further military involvement, though significant legislative hurdles remain.

“Every day that passes without a resumption of oil flows leaves the market increasingly vulnerable. This increases the pressure to strike a deal,” ING analysts wrote.

Inventory Data Highlights Tight Supply Conditions

Supporting the market was a larger-than-anticipated decline in U.S. crude stockpiles.

According to the Energy Information Administration, inventories fell by 8 million barrels during the latest reporting week, far exceeding expectations for a drawdown of roughly 3 million barrels.

“While inventories do fall seasonally as refiners ramp up operating rates, the pace of decline has been faster than usual,” ING noted.

Strong export demand also contributed to tighter conditions, with U.S. crude exports reaching 5.9 million barrels per day as international buyers sought alternatives amid supply disruptions elsewhere.

Analysts continue to monitor global inventory levels closely, warning that sustained stock draws could leave the market increasingly exposed to supply shocks ahead of peak seasonal demand.

While ceasefire developments have reduced some immediate geopolitical pressure, underlying supply fundamentals continue to offer significant support to oil prices.

Gold prices edged higher on Thursday as easing energy costs and a weaker U.S. dollar improved the appeal of the precious metal, while investors looked ahead to key U.S. labour market data due later this week.

Spot gold climbed 0.7% to $4,465.24 an ounce by 06:23 ET (10:23 GMT), while gold futures gained 0.6% to $4,493.12 an ounce.

The move followed a renewed ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon that helped reduce immediate concerns over a broader escalation in the Middle East. The development also fuelled optimism that diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran could eventually gain traction.

After a fourth round of U.S.-brokered talks, Israel and Lebanon announced that the ceasefire would be “contingent on a complete cessation of Hezbollah fire and the evacuation of all Hezbollah operatives” from territory south of the Litani River.

“These steps will enable progress towards a comprehensive peace and security agreement,” according to a joint statement.

Hezbollah did not participate in the discussions.

Market sentiment was further supported by comments from President Donald Trump, who suggested that progress in negotiations with Iran could emerge in the coming days. Iranian officials also indicated that communication with Washington remains ongoing.

Reports additionally suggested that the White House may be reluctant to escalate military operations unless U.S. forces suffer direct casualties, helping ease some geopolitical risk premiums across financial markets.

Oil Retreats but Supply Concerns Persist

Crude prices moved lower following the ceasefire announcement, with Brent falling 1.5% to $96.30 per barrel and WTI declining 1.2% to $94.84.

Even so, energy markets remain affected by ongoing supply constraints linked to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, inflation concerns have not fully disappeared.

Investors continue to debate whether elevated energy costs could force central banks to keep borrowing costs higher for longer. Such expectations have weighed on gold at times because the metal does not generate interest income.

Thursday’s decline in Treasury yields helped offset those concerns. Lower bond yields tend to improve the attractiveness of gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

“We expect most central banks across developed markets—including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and others—to keep rates unchanged in the near term,” UBS analysts said.

Labour Market Data in Focus

Attention is now shifting to Friday’s U.S. jobs report, one of the most closely watched economic releases of the month.

The data could offer valuable insight into the resilience of the U.S. economy and help investors assess how policymakers may respond to evolving inflation and employment trends.

For gold traders, the report may prove particularly important as expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy remain a key driver of precious metals prices.

U.S. equity futures traded without a clear direction on Thursday as investors weighed developments in the Middle East alongside fresh corporate news from the technology sector. Attention remained focused on renewed ceasefire efforts between Israel and Lebanon, Broadcom’s (NASDAQ:AVGO) latest earnings report and the upcoming stock market debut of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX).

As of 03:32 ET, Dow Jones futures were up 0.2%, while futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.

The mixed performance followed a weaker session on Wall Street, where major indexes retreated from recent highs after renewed military exchanges between the United States and Iran heightened concerns over the ongoing conflict. Investors remain wary that sustained increases in energy prices could complicate the Federal Reserve’s path toward potential interest-rate cuts.

Nevertheless, technology stocks linked to artificial intelligence continued to attract investor interest. Recent economic indicators, including private payroll and services-sector data, suggested the U.S. economy remains relatively resilient despite geopolitical uncertainty, although some businesses continue to face pressure from rising costs and softer consumer demand.

Renewed Israel-Lebanon Truce Boosts Diplomatic Expectations

Market participants closely followed diplomatic developments after Israel and Lebanon agreed to restore a fragile ceasefire.

The agreement has fuelled hopes that broader negotiations involving Washington and Tehran could gain momentum. Progress toward a U.S.-Iran agreement has been closely tied to stability in Lebanon, where Israeli forces have been engaged in conflict with Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters.

After a fourth round of talks facilitated by the United States, both governments said the ceasefire would remain “contingent on a complete cessation of Hezbollah fire and the evacuation of all Hezbollah operatives” from territory south of the Litani River.

“These steps will enable progress towards a comprehensive peace and security agreement,” according to the joint statement.

Hezbollah was not involved in the discussions.

President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that talks with Iran could produce results in the near future, potentially as early as this weekend. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister indicated that communication with Washington remains active despite reports earlier this week suggesting indirect contacts had been suspended.

Domestic political pressure is also increasing in the United States. The House of Representatives approved a measure seeking to restrict further military action without congressional authorisation, although the proposal still faces significant legislative hurdles.

Oil Prices Ease as Investors Look to Hormuz Outlook

Crude oil prices moved lower following news of the ceasefire.

Brent crude fell 1.0% to $96.84 a barrel as traders assessed the possibility that a future U.S.-Iran agreement could help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy shipments.

Bond yields in both Europe and the United States also declined, reflecting expectations that improved regional stability could help ease inflationary pressures linked to energy costs.

The Strait of Hormuz has remained largely inaccessible to commercial tanker traffic since the conflict escalated earlier this year, contributing to higher oil and liquefied natural gas prices worldwide.

Against this backdrop, investors continue to debate whether central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, may need to maintain a restrictive monetary stance for longer than previously anticipated.

Broadcom Shares Fall Despite Strong AI Revenue Growth

Artificial intelligence remained a major theme in equity markets following Broadcom’s quarterly earnings release.

The semiconductor company reported a 48% increase in second-quarter revenue, driven by continued demand for AI-related infrastructure and chips. However, investors reacted negatively to the company’s outlook, sending the shares lower in after-hours trading.

Broadcom has been one of the strongest-performing technology stocks this year, with shares up roughly 38% before the earnings release.

The company, which supplies technology used by major AI developers including Meta and OpenAI, maintained its long-term forecast for AI semiconductor revenue to exceed $100 billion by 2027.

Chief Executive Hock Tan said AI-related semiconductor sales are expected to reach approximately $16 billion in the current quarter, more than triple the level achieved a year ago.

SpaceX Prepares for Landmark Stock Market Debut

SpaceX has revealed the pricing details for its upcoming initial public offering, setting the offer price at $135 per share ahead of its planned market launch.

According to an updated filing, the company intends to sell 555.5 million shares, a transaction expected to raise approximately $75 billion.

The fundraising would value SpaceX at around $1.75 trillion, making it one of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States and potentially the biggest IPO ever completed.

The decision to announce the pricing before completing the traditional investor roadshow process marks a significant departure from standard Wall Street practice and reflects Elon Musk’s unconventional approach to capital markets.

The listing is expected to provide public investors with direct exposure to SpaceX’s businesses spanning space exploration, satellite communications and artificial intelligence, areas that have become increasingly central to the company’s long-term growth strategy.

Rémy Cointreau reported a significant decline in annual earnings for the 2025-26 financial year, with U.S. import tariffs and higher production costs weighing on profitability. Despite the pressure on margins, the French spirits group delivered operating results and earnings per share that exceeded market expectations and reaffirmed its expectation of returning to organic sales growth in the current year.

Net profit attributable to shareholders fell 35.1% to €78.7 million, below the analyst consensus forecast of €82.4 million compiled from 16 analysts. However, adjusted net income reached €89.2 million, outperforming both the consensus estimate of €83.8 million and Jefferies’ projection of €84.4 million.

Group revenue totalled €935.3 million. While reported sales declined 5% from the previous year, organic growth was marginally positive at 0.2%, matching analyst expectations. The company said exchange-rate movements, particularly involving the U.S. dollar and Chinese renminbi, reduced reported sales by 5.2 percentage points.

Current operating profit decreased 23.8% to €165.4 million. Even so, the result exceeded both the consensus estimate of €163 million and Jefferies’ forecast of €164.8 million. On an organic basis, operating profit declined 11.5%, outperforming expectations for a larger drop. Current operating margin stood at 17.7%, slightly ahead of market forecasts of 17.4%.

Adjusted earnings per share came in at €1.71, ahead of the consensus forecast of €1.62 and Jefferies’ estimate of €1.64. According to the company, the earnings decline “mainly reflects a decline in gross margin linked to incremental customs duties, as well as unfavorable trends in price mix and production costs.” Gross margin contracted by 3.7 percentage points on an organic basis to 65.8%.

Within the Cognac division, operating profit fell 12.6% organically to €141.5 million, while margin narrowed by 3.6 percentage points to 24.7%. The decline reflected a less favourable sales mix, higher operating costs and the impact of customs duties.

Meanwhile, operating profit in the Liqueurs and Spirits segment slipped 3.1% organically to €43.1 million, falling short of Jefferies’ estimate of €51.2 million.

Cash generation improved during the year, with free cash flow increasing to €53.8 million. The group’s cash conversion rate rose to 27%, compared with 10% in the previous financial year. Net debt to EBITDA increased to 3.22 times from 2.40 times, although this remained better than the market consensus of 3.29 times.

Looking ahead to 2026-27, management expects a return to organic revenue growth, with momentum anticipated to strengthen “progressively through the year.” The company also forecasts a modest improvement in current operating margin and aims to keep net debt below 3.5 times EBITDA by March 2027.

The outlook incorporates an estimated €20 million impact from customs duties, compared with roughly €15 million in 2025-26. Currency movements are also expected to reduce sales by between €15 million and €20 million and lower operating profit by €5 million to €8 million.

Analysts at Jefferies noted that the market’s current operating profit forecast of €167.9 million for 2026-27 “could drift towards” their estimate of €160.3 million, “largely on FX.” They added that management’s guidance points to “low-single-digit to mid-single-digit” organic growth, compared with the market’s current expectation of 5.4% growth in operating profit.

Rémy Cointreau also unveiled its new “RC Forward” transformation programme, which aims to generate €100 million of additional value at the operating profit level by 2028-29 compared with 2025-26. Jefferies said this represents an implied increase of around 60%, although the broker noted that “it is unclear to what extent this will be reinvested behind growth initiatives.” The firm reiterated its “buy” recommendation and maintained a €48 price target.