Author: Fiona Craig

National Grid (LSE:NG.) may benefit significantly from proposed changes to the UK’s electricity transmission framework, according to a research note published Monday by investment bank Jefferies.

The analysis focuses on Ofgem’s Draft Determination, which outlines potential revisions to how project costs are treated under the regulatory model. Specifically, Jefferies evaluated the impact of reduced capitalisation rates on companies such as National Grid, Iberdrola (BIT:1IBE), and SSE (LSE:SSE).

Capitalisation rates affect how infrastructure investment is recorded—either added to the regulated asset base or expensed immediately—thereby influencing earnings and cash flow.

Jefferies projects that if capitalisation rates come in 8% below National Grid’s current business plan assumptions, the utility’s earnings per share could rise by approximately 7p annually, or around 8% above current market consensus, across fiscal years 2026 through 2031.

The projections are based on a maximum pipeline investment scenario of £34 billion outlined by Ofgem. Actual expenditures may ultimately vary.

Jefferies also sees moderate upside for Iberdrola, estimating a potential 4p, or 3% EPS lift via its UK subsidiary, Scottish Power, if similar regulatory adjustments are made.

SSE, by contrast, appears less exposed to earnings upside under the revised model. The company had already proposed a capitalisation rate below 80%, which is roughly in line with the blended rate currently assumed by Ofgem under the highest spend scenario.

While lower capitalisation rates could support short-term earnings and cash flow—especially for National Grid—Jefferies cautions that this might come at the cost of slower long-term growth in the regulated asset base.

Under the draft plan, Ofgem has projected a maximum total grid investment of £80 billion over the 2026–2031 period, including £10 billion in base spending and £70 billion allocated to future pipeline developments.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Shares of UK-listed mining companies rose on Monday, supported by a sharp rally in silver prices, which surged to their highest level since late 2011.

On the London Stock Exchange, Fresnillo (LSE:FRES) gained 3.2%, while Hochschild Mining (LSE:HOC) advanced 5.4%, as investors turned to precious metals amid mounting global trade concerns.

By 09:12 GMT, silver was trading at $39.448 per ounce, up 1.3% on the day, reaching a nearly 14-year peak. The move was fueled by rising demand for safe-haven assets following renewed trade tensions sparked by the United States.

U.S. President Donald Trump on July 12 announced plans to impose a 30% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and the European Union, set to take effect on August 1. This follows a recent 35% duty on Canadian imports and the threat of additional levies if retaliation occurs.

Fresnillo, one of the world’s largest primary silver producers, and Hochschild, which also holds significant silver operations, tracked the commodity’s rally, as investor appetite for metals strengthened in response to growing economic uncertainty.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

U.S. stock futures slipped on Monday following President Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs targeting key trading partners, the European Union and Mexico. Meanwhile, Bitcoin hit fresh record highs at the launch of “Crypto Week,” crude oil prices edged up, and China reported a larger-than-expected trade surplus.

Trump Imposes Tariffs on EU and Mexico

Global trade tensions escalated after U.S. President Donald Trump declared plans to implement 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting August 1. This move follows similar tariffs imposed recently on Japan, South Korea, Canada, Brazil, and a 50% duty on copper imports.

The targeted countries now face a tight deadline to negotiate trade agreements with Washington, after the original July 9 deadline was postponed. Data shows U.S. customs duties hit a record $113.3 billion gross in the first nine months of fiscal 2025 (ending September 30).

U.S. Futures Drop Amid Trade Concerns

Investor nerves were evident as U.S. stock futures declined on fears of a global trade conflict. At 02:55 ET (06:55 GMT), S&P 500 futures were down 0.6%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.5%, and Dow futures lost 0.6%. Last week, all major indices ended a three-week winning streak, retreating from record highs.

Trump’s tariff announcement further unsettled markets ahead of the critical quarterly earnings season, which kicks off Tuesday with major banks like JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup reporting results.

China’s Trade Surplus Expands

China posted a stronger-than-expected trade surplus of $114.77 billion in June, boosted by export growth following tariff reductions under the trade deal with the U.S. This exceeded the forecasted $113.20 billion and May’s $103.22 billion.

Exports rose 5.8% year-on-year in dollar terms, above the expected 5% and the previous month’s 4.8%. Rare earth exports also increased as China eased export licensing in light of relaxed U.S. chip technology restrictions.

However, import growth remained subdued at 1.1% year-on-year, missing the 1.3% forecast but improving from a 3.4% decline the prior month.

This data sets the stage for Tuesday’s GDP report, which is expected to show China’s growth surpassing its 5% annual target.

Bitcoin Hits New Highs at “Crypto Week” Start

Bitcoin surged above $120,000 for the first time Monday, rising 3.7% to $122,020 at 02:55 ET, amid optimism over potential U.S. crypto legislation.

The rally is fueled by strong ETF inflows and growing hopes that landmark bills such as the Genius Act, Clarity Act, and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act will be debated this week in the U.S. House of Representatives.

If enacted, these laws could establish robust frameworks for stablecoins, crypto custody, and the digital financial ecosystem. The bills have President Trump’s backing, who has dubbed himself the “crypto president” and advocated for industry-friendly policies.

Bitcoin’s value is up 30% year-to-date, pushing the overall crypto market capitalization to around $3.78 trillion.

Oil Prices Inch Up Ahead of Trump’s Statement on Russia

Oil futures inched higher Monday as markets await a “major statement” from Trump on Russia, amid frustration over stalled progress in ending the Ukraine conflict.

At 02:55 ET, Brent crude futures rose 0.1% to $70.40 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures increased 0.1% to $68.54.

Congress is advancing a bipartisan bill imposing further sanctions on Russia, pending Trump’s approval. EU officials are also close to agreeing on new sanctions, potentially including a lower price cap on Russian oil exports.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

DCC Plc (LSE:DCC) announced on Monday the sale of its InfoTech business operating in the UK and Ireland to private equity firm AURELIUS, in a deal valuing the unit at around £100 million on an enterprise basis.

The transaction is structured on a cash-free, debt-free, and normalized working capital basis. However, DCC cautioned that the actual net cash proceeds will be “not material” due to seasonal working capital fluctuations and supply chain financing related to the business, which totaled £156 million as of March 31, 2025.

In fiscal 2025, InfoTech contributed roughly £2 billion in revenue, accounting for about half of the total revenue generated by DCC’s Technology division. Despite its sizeable revenue, the business operated close to break-even, delivering less than 10% of the division’s EBITA.

Under the terms of the deal, DCC will keep ownership of its UK national distribution center located in Burnley, England.

This sale follows the company’s earlier divestment of its Health division and marks another step in streamlining DCC’s group structure. After completing these transactions, only the ProTech and LifeTech segments of the Technology division remain to be divested, with sales anticipated in 2026.

The remaining Technology businesses, largely based in North America, generate around £2 billion in revenue and £75 million in EBITA, and are considered more profitable and higher value-add compared to the InfoTech unit facing structural challenges.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Wizz Air (LSE:WIZZ) announced on Monday that it will withdraw from its Abu Dhabi base and halt all flights originating there starting in September. The airline cited ongoing operational difficulties and regional geopolitical tensions as key reasons behind the decision.

“Supply chain constraints, geopolitical instability, and limited market access have made it increasingly difficult to sustain our original ambitions,” stated Wizz Air CEO Jozsef Varadi.

“While this was a difficult decision, it is the right one given the circumstances,” he added.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Elixirr International plc (LSE:ELIX) saw its shares climb more than 4% on Monday after reporting exceptional revenue growth in the first half of 2025, setting new records for both quarters ending June 30.

The consulting firm, which recently transitioned to the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market, revealed a 35% increase in revenue year-over-year for the six-month period. Organic growth accounted for a 17% rise compared to the same timeframe in 2024. Profit margins remained stable, consistent with recent performance.

Earlier, Elixirr had announced record revenue for Q1 2025, and Monday’s update confirmed the second quarter continued that momentum, featuring five record-breaking months.

The company’s board expressed confidence that full-year results will meet market expectations. Interim financial results for the half-year ending June 30 are scheduled for release on September 22.

Founder and CEO Stephen Newton stated, “We are pleased to report continued growth in H1 25, maintaining our track record of profitable growth since our AIM IPO,”

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The British pound weakened on Monday, falling to $1.34 after reaching $1.36 last week, as concerns grew over U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent threat to impose 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the European Union.

Despite the currency slide, the FTSE 100 index was modestly higher by 0.2% as of 07:58 GMT. Meanwhile, European markets showed mixed performance, with Germany’s DAX down 0.7% and France’s CAC 40 retreating 0.5%.

Ashmore Reports Solid Growth in Assets Under Management

Investment firm Ashmore Group (LSE:ASHM) announced a $1.4 billion increase in assets under management (AuM) during Q2, lifting total AuM to $47.6 billion as of June 30. The rise primarily reflected $2.2 billion in positive investment returns, partially offset by $0.8 billion in net client withdrawals.

Fixed income assets grew to $38.5 billion, up from $37.8 billion the previous quarter, while equities expanded from $6.8 billion to $7.5 billion. Positive inflows were seen in equities, stable flows in external debt and alternatives, with slight outflows noted in blended debt, local currency, and corporate debt categories.

AstraZeneca Shares Rise on Encouraging Blood Pressure Drug Trial

Shares of AstraZeneca (LSE:AZN) gained 2% following promising Phase III trial results for its experimental hypertension drug, baxdrostat. The drug achieved significant reductions in systolic blood pressure at 12 weeks across two dose levels, outperforming placebo when used alongside standard treatments.

Elixirr Reports Revenue Surge, Shares Advance

Consultancy Elixirr International (LSE:ELIX) saw its shares climb roughly 5% after reporting a 35% year-over-year increase in first-half revenues. The company’s board remains optimistic that full-year results will meet market expectations.

UK Job Market Shows Signs of Weakening

Data from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation and KPMG revealed that permanent staff hires in the UK declined at their fastest rate in 22 months during June. Available worker numbers surged to their highest since 2020, while salary growth slowed and job vacancies dropped. The retail sector faced the most pronounced challenges.

DCC Sells IT Division to Aurelius

In corporate activity, DCC (LSE:DCC) announced the sale of its information technology division to investment firm Aurelius for an enterprise value near £100 million.

GSK’s RSV Drug Receives U.S. Regulatory Review

Pharmaceutical giant GSK (LSE:GSK) confirmed that the U.S. authorities have accepted its application to extend the use of its RSV medication Arexvy for further review.

Shares of AstraZeneca (LSE:AZN) climbed following positive data from a Phase III trial of its investigational drug baxdrostat, which demonstrated significant blood pressure reductions in patients with difficult-to-control hypertension. The trial results, unveiled Monday, highlight the drug’s potential as a new treatment option for resistant high blood pressure.

The BaxHTN study involved 796 adults suffering from uncontrolled or resistant hypertension—conditions where blood pressure remains elevated despite the use of multiple medications. Participants were randomly assigned to receive daily doses of 1 mg or 2 mg of baxdrostat, or a placebo, alongside their usual treatments.

After 12 weeks, patients treated with baxdrostat showed a notable decline in systolic blood pressure compared to those on placebo. The reduction was both statistically significant and clinically meaningful. The trial also successfully met all its secondary endpoints, including improvements in diastolic pressure and a strong safety profile with minimal side effects.

Hypertension affects over 1.3 billion people globally, and many patients in the U.S. fail to control their blood pressure despite taking several drugs. Unmanaged high blood pressure increases the risk of heart attacks, strokes, kidney disease, and heart failure.

Baxdrostat targets the enzyme responsible for producing aldosterone, a hormone that elevates blood pressure by promoting salt and water retention. Unlike some existing therapies, baxdrostat selectively inhibits aldosterone without impacting cortisol, a crucial hormone for the body.

Dr. Bryan Williams, lead investigator of the trial and Chair of Medicine at University College London, remarked that these results offer hope for patients struggling to manage their hypertension with current treatments. He added that adding baxdrostat could provide meaningful additional blood pressure control.

The study included a follow-up phase to evaluate the durability of the drug’s effects. In this extension, 300 patients taking 2 mg of baxdrostat were re-randomized to continue the drug or switch to placebo for eight weeks. AstraZeneca will continue monitoring long-term safety up to 52 weeks.

These promising findings will be submitted to health authorities and presented at the European Society of Cardiology Congress scheduled for August 2025.

Baxdrostat is part of AstraZeneca’s growing cardiovascular, renal, and metabolic pipeline. The company acquired the drug through its 2023 purchase of CinCor Pharma, a deal valued at up to $1.8 billion. CinCor shareholders may receive a $10-per-share bonus if regulatory filings are successfully made in the U.S. or Europe.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

On Monday, billionaire Elon Musk made it clear that he does not support merging Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) with his AI startup, xAI. Responding briefly on social media platform X, Musk simply replied “No” when asked if the two companies would combine.

This comes shortly after Musk revealed plans to seek shareholder approval for Tesla to invest in xAI, signaling his intent to maintain the companies as distinct entities. His remarks underscore a strategy focused on collaboration through investment rather than a full corporate merger, contingent on the outcome of the shareholder vote.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

European stock markets were mostly in the red on Monday, pressured by heightened concerns over escalating trade tensions after U.S. President Donald Trump announced steep new tariffs on European Union imports. The move, seen as a blow to ongoing transatlantic negotiations, reignited fears of a broader trade conflict.

By 07:55 GMT, Germany’s DAX had dropped 0.7%, while France’s CAC 40 was down 0.5%. In contrast, the FTSE 100 in London edged up 0.2%, with the U.K. already having secured a trade agreement with the Trump administration.

Transatlantic Trade Strain Deepens

Trump revealed over the weekend that the U.S. would impose a 30% tariff on goods imported from both the EU and Mexico, starting August 1. This announcement comes after similar measures were introduced on imports from Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Brazil in the previous week.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemned the tariffs, warning they would severely disrupt transatlantic supply chains, harming businesses, consumers, and patients alike. While reiterating the EU’s willingness to negotiate before the deadline, she emphasized that the bloc was “prepared to defend its interests” through proportional countermeasures if needed.

The EU and the U.S. collectively account for nearly 30% of global trade and 43% of global GDP, with bilateral trade valued at approximately €1.7 trillion in 2024, or roughly €4.6 billion per day.

German Automakers Hit by Tariff Shock

Shares of major German auto manufacturers were under pressure following the tariff announcement, which offered no exemptions for the automotive sector. Shares in Volkswagen (TG:VOW3), BMW (TG:BMW), Mercedes-Benz (TG:MBG) and Porsche (BIT:1PORS) all fell more than 1%.

AstraZeneca Gains on Trial Success

On a brighter note, shares of AstraZeneca (LSE:AZN) rose after the pharmaceutical giant reported that its hypertension drug Baxdrostat successfully met both primary and secondary endpoints in a key late-stage clinical trial involving patients with resistant high blood pressure.

Oil Prices Rise as Focus Shifts to Russia Sanctions

Crude oil prices climbed on Monday, driven by speculation that Washington may unveil new sanctions on Russia, potentially disrupting global supply flows.

As of 03:55 ET, Brent crude futures were up 1.1% at $71.14 per barrel, while WTI crude advanced 1.2% to $69.25 per barrel.

Trump is expected to deliver a “major statement” on Russia later in the day, amid growing bipartisan support in Congress for a bill proposing further sanctions aimed at pressuring Moscow over the war in Ukraine. At the same time, EU diplomats are reportedly nearing consensus on a new sanctions package that may include a tighter cap on Russian oil exports.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.