Author: Fiona Craig

Oil prices rose on Friday, recovering part of the losses from the previous session, but were still set to record their first weekly decline in almost two months as easing supply concerns and diplomatic developments weighed on sentiment.

Brent crude futures climbed 78 cents, or 1.2%, to $68.33 a barrel by 06:58 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude added 80 cents, or 1.3%, to $64.09 a barrel.

Even with the rebound, Brent was heading for a weekly loss of about 3.3% and was down roughly 4.8% from the highs reached in late January. WTI was also on track to fall around 1.8% for the week and remained about 3.4% below last month’s near six-month peak, which followed warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump of possible action against Iran.

Markets remained cautious amid uncertainty over the agenda for talks between the United States and Iran scheduled to take place in Oman later in the day. Tehran has signalled it wants discussions confined to nuclear issues, while Washington is pressing to broaden the talks to include Iran’s ballistic missile programme and its backing of armed groups across the region.

“The two sides remain well apart, leaving tensions elevated,” ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said in a note. “This should see the geopolitical risk premium remain in place.”

Any renewed escalation could pose risks to global oil supplies, as roughly 20% of the world’s oil consumption moves through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran. Major exporters including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq rely on the route, as does fellow OPEC member Iran.

However, analysts noted that a reduction in geopolitical risk could expose weaker market fundamentals. “We think that geopolitical fears will give way to weak fundamentals,” Capital Economics analysts said in a note, citing a rebound in Kazakhstan’s oil output that could help drive prices toward $50 a barrel by the end of 2026.

Gold and silver prices turned higher during Asian trading on Friday, attracting some bargain hunting after a volatile week marked by sharp swings and heavy losses.

Silver continued to lag and was still on course for a weekly drop of roughly 14%, having largely erased a recent rebound. Gold, while also heading for a weekly decline, held up relatively better but was still trading around $800 an ounce below the record highs reached last week.

Easing geopolitical concerns also weighed on demand for safe-haven assets, with signs of cooling tensions between Iran and the U.S. ahead of planned talks in Oman later in the day.

Gold set for modest weekly fall after rebounding from near one-month low

Spot gold slipped 0.9% to $4,825.31 an ounce by 22:56 ET (03:56 GMT), while April gold futures fell 1% to $4,842.44 an ounce.

On a weekly basis, spot gold was down about 0.9%, after struggling to sustain levels above $5,000 an ounce. Still, prices remained comfortably above a near one-month low touched earlier in the week.

“The selloff in the gold market was a little bit more contained due to greater liquidity and less aggressive positioning by investors,” ANZ analysts wrote in a note.

Silver heads for steep weekly loss as rebound loses momentum

Spot silver rose 2.8% to $72.9655 an ounce, while silver futures were down 5.1% at $72.760 an ounce.

Silver prices had plunged as much as 16% on Thursday before paring some of those losses by the close. Even so, the metal was down around 14% for the week, following an almost 18% collapse from record highs seen last week.

“We continue to reiterate that 70–90 region now represents a critical stabilisation zone; sustained failure to hold above this area may risk deeper correction towards USD 58/60 levels,” OCBC analysts said in a note. “But should prices hold up in this range, then bullish momentum may rebuild at some point later.”

Other precious metals remained under pressure as well. Spot platinum fell 1.8% to $1,953.17 an ounce and was down nearly 10% for the week, following a steep 22% drop last week.

The broader metals complex has been under sustained selling pressure since last week, initially triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair to succeed Jerome Powell.

Warsh is widely viewed as less dovish, a perception that has supported a rebound in the U.S. dollar and weighed on metal prices. The greenback was heading for its strongest weekly performance since early October, with weaker labor market data doing little to slow its advance.

Bitcoin staged a modest rebound during Asian trading on Friday after touching its weakest level in 16 months, but the move was not enough to offset heavy losses over the week, as a risk-off backdrop and uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy continued to pressure cryptocurrency markets.

The broader tone in crypto remained fragile after major corporate holder Strategy Inc (NASDAQ:MSTR) reported a dramatically wider fourth-quarter loss on Thursday, driven largely by the fall in the value of its Bitcoin holdings.

Bitcoin was last up around 5% at $66,145 by 01:48 ET (06:48 GMT), recovering from an intraday low near $60,187. Even with the bounce, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has now shed more than half of its value from the record high reached in October and has given up all gains made since Donald Trump’s election victory in late 2024.

Bitcoin faces third straight weekly decline

Despite Friday’s recovery, Bitcoin was on track for a third consecutive weekly loss and was down close to 16% over the period.

Recent weeks have seen a broad retreat from higher-risk assets, with pressure on crypto intensifying after Trump named Kevin Warsh as his preferred candidate to lead the Federal Reserve. Warsh has previously criticised the Fed’s asset-purchase programmes, prompting concerns that monetary policy could remain tighter for longer under his leadership.

Expectations of a smaller central bank balance sheet have weighed on speculative assets, and investors have responded by cutting exposure to risk-sensitive markets. The selloff in U.S. technology shares—often closely correlated with crypto price moves—has added to the downside pressure.

Strategy’s losses deepen as Bitcoin weakens

Strategy Inc (NASDAQ:MSTR) said its fourth-quarter loss widened to $12.4 billion, compared with a loss of $670.8 million a year earlier, highlighting the impact of Bitcoin’s prolonged weakness.

The company has struggled as Bitcoin failed to regain momentum following a sharp selloff in late October, which unsettled broader markets. As of February 1, Strategy held 713,502 Bitcoins at a total cost of $54.26 billion, or an average of $76,052 per coin.

With Bitcoin trading below that average purchase price, investors have grown increasingly concerned that the company could be forced to liquidate part of its holdings to meet debt obligations. Strategy, led by long-time Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor, has funded its accumulation largely through debt issuance and share sales.

Altcoins mirror Bitcoin but weekly losses mount

Other cryptocurrencies followed Bitcoin higher on Friday but remained under pressure on a weekly basis.

Ether rose nearly 5% to around $1,917, yet was still down roughly 22% for the week. XRP and BNB posted daily gains of about 7% and 3%, respectively, but both were nursing weekly losses of around 20%.

Solana was heading for a weekly decline of roughly 24%, while Cardano was down about 13.5%. Among meme tokens, Dogecoin was off around 13% for the week, while $TRUMP had fallen by roughly 23%.

Hargreave Hale AIM VCT plc (LSE:HHV) reported a difficult first quarter of its 2025/26 financial year, with unaudited net asset value per share declining by 1.25p to 35.21p and a NAV total return of -3.43%. Performance was impacted by a weak AIM market and subdued UK economic conditions.

Qualifying investments were slightly negative overall. Strong gains in Hardide, Skillcast, and Tortilla Mexican Grill were more than offset by sharp falls in defence and diagnostics holdings Cohort and Diaceutics, along with weakness in Property Franchise Group. The non-qualifying portfolio provided some stability, particularly through fixed income holdings and UK small-cap funds. The VCT remained well above the HMRC qualifying threshold at 84.11%, increased its exposure to qualifying assets and fixed income, and continued to deploy capital via new and follow-on AIM investments. During the period, it exited Polarean Imaging and a gold miners ETF and repurchased 2.6 million shares, with the shares trading at a modest discount to NAV.

After the quarter end, NAV per share recovered to 36.33p as at 31 January 2026. The trust also committed to making further qualifying investments, pointing to continued portfolio rotation and a cautiously optimistic stance despite ongoing UK macroeconomic pressures and a still-quiet IPO environment.

From an outlook perspective, the VCT benefits from a conservative, debt-free balance sheet, but this is offset by volatile earnings, a sharp revenue decline in 2025, and persistently negative operating cash flow. Technical indicators remain weak, suggesting oversold conditions and negative momentum, while a high dividend yield and recent corporate activity offer partial support.

More about Hargreave Hale AIM VCT plc

Hargreave Hale AIM VCT plc is a UK-listed venture capital trust investing primarily in smaller, high-growth companies quoted on London’s Alternative Investment Market. The trust offers exposure to early-stage and developing businesses through a diversified mix of qualifying and non-qualifying assets, including direct equity investments, UK small-cap funds, and fixed income, with the aim of delivering tax-efficient income and long-term capital growth under the HMRC VCT framework.

Ninety One Limited (LSE:N91) has disclosed that Sanlam Investment Holdings (Pty) Ltd has taken a significant beneficial interest in its shares on behalf of clients. The transaction lifts Sanlam’s aggregate holding in the relevant class of Ninety One Limited securities from zero to 19.9% of the company’s issued share capital.

The required regulatory notifications have been submitted to South Africa’s Takeover Regulation Panel, with Ninety One’s board confirming that the disclosure is based on information provided by Sanlam. The move introduces a sizeable new institutional shareholder to the register, which could influence shareholder dynamics and is likely to be viewed as a vote of confidence in the business.

From a market perspective, Ninety One’s overall investment case continues to be underpinned by strong financial performance and an attractive valuation, supported by constructive earnings commentary and recent strategic actions. While technical indicators point to some near-term caution, the group’s solid fundamentals and strategic positioning are seen as supportive of longer-term growth.

More about Ninety One

Ninety One plc and Ninety One Limited are dual-listed asset management companies incorporated in England and Wales and South Africa, with primary listings on the London Stock Exchange and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The group provides a broad range of investment products and services to institutional and retail clients, with shares trading under the ticker N91 in London and Johannesburg and NY1 for Ninety One Limited on the JSE.

GEO Exploration Limited (LSE:GEO) has approved a wide-ranging equity-based remuneration package for its board, opting to compensate executive and non-executive directors with shares rather than cash fees. The package includes the issue of new ordinary shares, the grant of 490 million new share options, and an extension to the expiry of warrants originally issued as part of a 2023 fundraising.

The measures materially increase directors’ exposure to the company’s equity while reducing near-term cash outflows. Following the changes, directors collectively hold around 14.4% of the enlarged share capital, rising to approximately 23.5% on a fully diluted basis. The options and share awards are subject to a mix of performance and time-based vesting conditions, designed to encourage long-term value creation and retain key management.

The warrant extensions, most of which are held by the chief executive and chief financial officer, together with the option grants, are classified as related-party transactions under AIM rules. These arrangements have been reviewed by the company’s nominated adviser and deemed fair and reasonable. The approach highlights GEO Exploration’s reliance on equity-linked incentives to preserve cash, support project development, and potentially generate future funding if warrants are exercised.

More about GEO Exploration Limited

GEO Exploration Limited is an AIM-listed resources company focused on early-stage exploration projects. Operating under the capital constraints typical of junior explorers, the group makes extensive use of equity-based instruments to remunerate and incentivise directors and staff, preserving cash for operational and strategic priorities while aligning management interests with those of shareholders.

Kore Potash Plc (LSE:KP2) has reported a change in the number of CHESS Depositary Interests representing its ordinary shares on the ASX, with CDIs falling to 582,964,712 at 31 January 2026 from 589,194,233 a month earlier. This represents a net reduction of 6,229,521 CDIs over the period.

The movement reflects transfers between ASX-quoted CDIs and ordinary shares traded on AIM and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, rather than any issuance or cancellation of shares. Correspondingly, the number of directly held ordinary shares increased to 4,592,973,603. The update points to an internal rebalancing of how Kore Potash’s equity is held across its dual listings, with no impact on total share capital but potential implications for where trading liquidity is concentrated.

From an outlook perspective, the company continues to face financial challenges, including a drop in revenue to zero in 2024, ongoing losses, and recently negative operating and free cash flow. These pressures are partly offset by a deleveraged balance sheet following 2024. Technical indicators remain broadly neutral, while valuation remains difficult to justify given negative earnings and the absence of a dividend.

More about Kore Potash Plc

Kore Potash Plc is a potash-focused mining company with ordinary shares listed via CHESS Depositary Interests on the Australian Securities Exchange and directly on London’s AIM and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The structure reflects a multi-market investor base supporting the development of the company’s fertiliser-related mineral assets.