Author: Fiona Craig

  • European Shares Trade Mixed as Earnings Season Continues Ahead of ECB and BOE Decisions: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European Shares Trade Mixed as Earnings Season Continues Ahead of ECB and BOE Decisions: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European equity markets showed mixed performance on Thursday as investors assessed overnight declines on Wall Street alongside a fresh wave of corporate earnings releases, while attention remained fixed on upcoming monetary policy announcements from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

    At 08:05 GMT, Germany’s DAX index slipped 0.2% and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 declined 0.4%, while France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.6%.

    Corporate results dominate market focus

    Global investor sentiment has been pressured by growing concerns over the escalating costs tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure, which contributed to a sharp sell-off in U.S. technology shares overnight and losses across major Asian markets earlier in the day.

    Alphabet signalled late Wednesday that its capital expenditure could potentially double this year, reflecting another significant increase in spending by Google’s parent company as it expands investment to overcome computing capacity limitations and strengthen its position in the AI sector.

    Meanwhile, European investors continued reviewing earnings from several major regional corporations.

    Energy giant Shell (LSE:SHEL) reported adjusted earnings of $3.26 billion for the fourth quarter, representing a decline from $3.7 billion recorded a year earlier and marking the company’s weakest quarterly performance in nearly five years.

    Danish shipping group Maersk (TG:DP4A) announced fourth-quarter operating profit broadly aligned with market expectations but warned that declining freight rates, combined with ongoing industry pressures, could negatively impact earnings in 2026.

    BNP Paribas (EU:BNP) lifted its profitability targets for 2028 after fourth-quarter profit climbed 28%, with France’s largest bank expecting structural cost savings and a supportive interest rate environment to accelerate future earnings expansion.

    Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (LSE:BVA) reported net profit of €2.53 billion for the fourth quarter, representing a 4% increase from €2.43 billion a year earlier, supported by loan growth in Spain and Mexico that helped offset higher credit provisions.

    Siemens Healthineers (TG:SIE) posted strong first-quarter results, with robust demand for imaging technology and cancer treatment equipment helping to offset weaker performance in its diagnostics division and the impact of currency fluctuations.

    ECB and BOE policy decisions in focus

    Outside the corporate sphere, German industrial orders increased 7.8% in December compared with the previous month, significantly outperforming expectations for a 2.2% decline.

    The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 2% later in the day, marking a fifth consecutive meeting without a rate adjustment. However, the sharp decline in eurozone inflation during January may present new challenges for policymakers.

    Recent data showed eurozone consumer price inflation slowed to 1.7% year-on-year in January, down from 1.9% in December.

    Similarly, the Bank of England is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady at 3.75% later in the session, with analysts pointing to persistent inflation risks despite signs of softening labour market conditions.

    Oil prices fall as U.S.-Iran talks ease supply fears

    Crude oil prices dropped sharply on Thursday after the United States and Iran agreed to hold diplomatic talks in Oman on Friday, easing concerns about potential military escalation that could disrupt energy supply in the region.

    Brent crude futures for April delivery fell 1.5% to $68.39 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude declined 1.6% to $64.10 per barrel.

    Both oil benchmarks had climbed roughly 3% on Wednesday amid concerns that negotiations between the United States and Iran might collapse.

    Despite the planned discussions, uncertainty remains, with concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump could still proceed with previously issued threats to strike Iran, the fourth-largest oil producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, potentially triggering broader instability in the region.

  • ArcelorMittal Surpasses Q4 EBITDA Forecasts as Strong Iron Ore Volumes Balance Regional Weakness

    ArcelorMittal Surpasses Q4 EBITDA Forecasts as Strong Iron Ore Volumes Balance Regional Weakness

    ArcelorMittal (EU:MT) reported fourth-quarter EBITDA of $1.59 billion on Thursday, exceeding analyst projections of $1.53 billion, as record iron ore shipments from Liberia helped counter softer performance in North America.

    The global steel and mining group recorded net income of $177 million, or $0.23 per share, for the quarter ending December 31, falling short of market expectations of $390 million, or $0.51 per share. Results for the period included $194 million in exceptional charges tied to restructuring efforts in Europe and the divestment of operations in Bosnia.

    Quarterly revenue slipped 4.4% to $14.97 billion from $15.66 billion in the previous quarter, largely reflecting reduced shipment volumes. Steel shipments came in at 13 million tonnes, compared with 13.6 million tonnes in the third quarter.

    The company’s mining division delivered EBITDA of $314 million, representing a 50.2% increase from $209 million in the previous quarter. The improvement was driven by a 22.7% rise in iron ore shipments, which reached 10.1 million tonnes. Liberia delivered record production levels and generated $0.2 billion in EBITDA across the full year, with the operation continuing to advance toward an annual production capacity of 20 million tonnes. Shipments from the region are expected to exceed 18 million tonnes by the end of 2026.

    For the full year, ArcelorMittal reported EBITDA of $6.54 billion, slightly surpassing analyst forecasts of $6.47 billion, although this represented a 7.3% decline from $7.05 billion recorded in 2024. Net income increased to $3.15 billion, or $4.13 per share, compared with $1.34 billion, or $1.70 per share, the previous year, but remained below estimates of $3.32 billion and $4.36 per share.

    “While the ongoing geopolitical volatility brought significant challenges, important foundations were also laid for a more supportive operating environment moving forwards,” chief executive Aditya Mittal said in a statement.

    “European producers to recover to sustainable utilization levels, and generate healthy returns on capital” following proposed trade measures and enhancements to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

    The board recommended increasing the annual base dividend to $0.60 per share from $0.55, with quarterly payments beginning in March. During 2025, the company repurchased 8.8 million shares for $262 million, contributing to a 38% reduction in its fully diluted share count since September 2020.

    ArcelorMittal generated operating cash flow of $4.81 billion and free cash flow of $350 million during the year. Net debt increased to $7.93 billion as of December 31, compared with $5.08 billion a year earlier, reflecting shareholder returns totalling $0.7 billion and acquisitions valued at $1.9 billion. The company’s credit ratings were upgraded by both Moody’s and S&P during 2025.

    Growth initiatives contributed approximately $0.7 billion to EBITDA in 2025, with a further $1.6 billion expected from projects including the Serra Azul pellet plant in Brazil and electrical steel facilities in France and the United States, which are scheduled to come online by 2028.

    Looking ahead, ArcelorMittal expects capital expenditure to range between $4.50 billion and $5 billion in 2026 and anticipates global steel demand outside China to grow by about 2%.

  • Rio Tinto Expected to Request More Time Over Potential Glencore Merger, Report Says

    Rio Tinto Expected to Request More Time Over Potential Glencore Merger, Report Says

    Rio Tinto Ltd (LSE:RIO) and Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN) are likely to announce a request to extend ongoing merger discussions ahead of a UK regulatory deadline on Thursday, according to a Reuters report citing sources familiar with the negotiations.

    However, the report also noted that Rio Tinto may still decide not to proceed with the transaction, as some investors are reportedly urging the company to provide stronger evidence that a potential deal would deliver shareholder value.

    In January, Rio Tinto and Glencore confirmed they were holding preliminary discussions regarding a possible merger that could result in the creation of the world’s largest mining group. The companies have previously explored combination opportunities, with similar discussions having taken place in 2024 and earlier in 2014, although neither resulted in a completed transaction.

    Under UK takeover regulations, the companies must, by February 5, either announce a firm offer, withdraw from the negotiations, or formally request an extension to continue discussions. According to Reuters, Glencore is willing to allow Rio Tinto to pursue additional time to evaluate the potential transaction.

  • Vodafone Reports Q3 Revenue Growth and Maintains Upper-End FY26 Profit and Cash Flow Outlook

    Vodafone Reports Q3 Revenue Growth and Maintains Upper-End FY26 Profit and Cash Flow Outlook

    Vodafone (LSE:VOD) reported group total revenue of €10.5 billion for the third quarter of FY26, representing a 6.5% year-on-year increase, while service revenue rose 7.3% to €8.5 billion. Growth was primarily driven by strong performance across African markets, continued momentum in Türkiye and the consolidation of Three UK and Telekom Romania into group results.

    Germany returned to modest service revenue growth during the quarter, while UK performance recorded a small, expected decline, largely reflecting prior-year one-off factors. On an organic basis, service revenue increased 5.4%, while group Adjusted EBITDAaL rose 2.3% organically for the quarter and 5.3% year-to-date.

    Vodafone confirmed it expects to deliver results at the upper end of its full-year FY26 guidance ranges for profit and cash flow. However, operating profit declined significantly during the period, primarily due to non-cash accounting impacts associated with mergers and acquisitions activity linked to the company’s restructuring in India.

    Management highlighted continued progress integrating the VodafoneThree UK business, which is expected to strengthen the company’s competitive position in the UK market. The group also reported ongoing double-digit organic growth across its African operations, supported in part by expanding financial services offerings.

    Vodafone maintained a strong focus on shareholder returns, completing €3.5 billion of share buybacks and confirming plans to increase its FY26 dividend per share. The company said these capital return initiatives reflect confidence in its medium-term cash flow outlook despite near-term accounting pressures.

    Vodafone’s outlook combines strategic progress and positive operational momentum with some financial and valuation challenges. Strong technical trading trends and positive earnings sentiment provide support, while ongoing integration activities and corporate developments strengthen long-term growth potential.

    More about Vodafone

    Vodafone Group Plc is a multinational telecommunications provider offering mobile, fixed-line, broadband and digital connectivity services across Europe, the UK, Türkiye and Africa. The company serves both consumer and enterprise customers, including wholesale connectivity and expanding financial services solutions in African markets. Vodafone has recently strengthened its UK market position through the integration of Three UK operations as part of its broader strategic transformation.

  • Ithaca Energy Boosts Production, Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns Following Strong 2025 Performance

    Ithaca Energy Boosts Production, Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns Following Strong 2025 Performance

    Ithaca Energy (LSE:ITH) reported strong operational and financial results for 2025, with average production increasing to 119,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboe/d) and exiting the year at approximately 148 kboe/d. The improved output was supported by new wells brought online at the Cygnus, Seagull and J Area fields, alongside continued progress in safety performance and emissions management.

    The company confirmed a substantial resource base, reporting more than 350 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2P reserves and around 300 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2C contingent resources, reinforcing the long-term development potential of its UK Continental Shelf portfolio.

    Financial performance also strengthened, with adjusted preliminary EBITDAX rising to $2.0 billion. Unit operating costs declined to $19 per barrel of oil equivalent, supported by operational efficiencies and a well-structured hedging programme. Ithaca maintained a strong balance sheet, reporting low leverage of 0.56 times and available liquidity of approximately $1.5 billion.

    Ithaca reaffirmed its commitment to shareholder returns by maintaining its full-year 2025 dividend target of $500 million, having distributed the full amount during the year. The company also continued to advance its consolidation strategy within the UK Continental Shelf through targeted acquisitions and disciplined capital investment.

    Strategically, Ithaca progressed development planning for its flagship Rosebank project and wider West of Shetland growth initiatives. Management believes these projects will support future production expansion while strengthening the company’s role as a major independent producer and consolidator within the North Sea energy sector.

    Ithaca Energy’s outlook reflects strong operational efficiency and solid cash generation, although profitability pressures remain a consideration. Technical trading indicators suggest some bearish momentum in the near term. However, the company’s relatively high dividend yield provides valuation support, even as negative earnings metrics remain a factor for investors.

    More about Ithaca Energy PLC

    Ithaca Energy plc is a leading UK-based independent exploration and production company focused on oil and gas assets across the UK Continental Shelf. The company has expanded rapidly through organic development and strategic acquisitions, including its combination with Eni UK, and is now one of the largest independent producers in the basin with one of the region’s largest resource bases. Ithaca holds interests in several major UK fields and key pre-development projects, positioning it as an important contributor to UK energy security while pursuing emissions reduction targets aligned with the North Sea Transition Deal.

  • Future Plc Maintains FY 2026 Outlook as Digital Advertising Recovers and Portfolio Review Progresses

    Future Plc Maintains FY 2026 Outlook as Digital Advertising Recovers and Portfolio Review Progresses

    Future plc (LSE:FUTR) said trading during the four months to 31 January 2026 remained broadly in line with expectations, leaving the company on course to meet full-year market forecasts. Management indicated that performance is expected to be weighted toward the second half of the financial year.

    Within the B2C division, direct digital advertising across the UK and US has continued to strengthen and is forecast to deliver year-on-year growth during the first half. However, programmatic advertising and eCommerce affiliate revenues remain under pressure due to softer audience engagement trends, while print magazine revenue has shown resilience.

    The company’s Go.Compare price comparison platform has experienced a slowing rate of revenue decline, particularly within the car insurance segment. Profitability in the division has been impacted by rising pay-per-click advertising costs across the sector. Future recently relaunched its Renewal insurance app wallet, which management believes could support longer-term growth and customer engagement.

    In the B2B segment, revenue trends have improved during the second quarter, although performance remains uneven across end markets. Group leverage has temporarily increased due to dividend payments, ongoing share repurchases and the acquisition of lifestyle media platform SheerLuxe. Management expects leverage to decline later in the year as strong cash generation improves the balance sheet.

    Future confirmed that its £30 million share buyback programme remains underway, with approximately £5 million of shares repurchased to date. The company is also continuing to assess its asset portfolio to ensure alignment with its broader platform strategy and to identify opportunities to return surplus capital to shareholders. The SheerLuxe acquisition is viewed as complementary to Future’s existing lifestyle content portfolio and part of its long-term growth strategy.

    Future plc’s outlook reflects a balance of operational challenges and growth opportunities. Financial performance remains under pressure due to softer revenue trends and margin constraints, while technical trading indicators point to weaker share price momentum. However, valuation metrics suggest the shares may be undervalued, and ongoing strategic initiatives provide potential support for future growth. Improving revenue expansion and profitability remains central to strengthening investor confidence.

    More about Future plc

    Future plc is a global specialist media platform operating approximately 175 brands across a range of content verticals. The company focuses on producing trusted, niche content designed to build engaged communities, generating revenue through advertising, eCommerce affiliate income and direct consumer subscriptions and magazine sales. Future distributes content across digital platforms, newsletters, video, print publications and live events.

  • Shell Earnings Slip on Weaker Prices but Strong Cash Flow Supports Higher Shareholder Returns

    Shell Earnings Slip on Weaker Prices but Strong Cash Flow Supports Higher Shareholder Returns

    Shell (LSE:SHEL) reported fourth-quarter 2025 income attributable to shareholders of $4.1 billion, representing a significant increase year-on-year but a decline compared with the previous quarter. The quarter-on-quarter reduction reflected unfavourable tax adjustments, lower marketing margins, reduced realised commodity prices and higher operating costs.

    Adjusted earnings dropped 40% compared with the prior quarter and declined 22% for the full year to $18.5 billion. Adjusted EBITDA also fell 15% to $56.1 billion, primarily due to weaker liquids and liquefied natural gas prices, softer trading and optimisation performance, and reduced chemicals margins. These pressures were partly offset by stronger production volumes, lower operating costs and supportive tax impacts.

    Shell generated operating cash flow of $9.4 billion during the fourth quarter and $42.9 billion for the full year. Annual free cash flow reached $26.1 billion after capital expenditure of $20.9 billion. Net debt increased to $45.7 billion, with gearing rising to 20.7%, largely reflecting strong shareholder distributions.

    The company returned $5.5 billion to shareholders during the fourth quarter through a combination of dividends and share buybacks. Shell also announced a new $3.5 billion share repurchase programme, reinforcing its commitment to returning capital to investors despite softer earnings and cash flow compared with 2024.

    Strategically, Shell highlighted $5.1 billion in structural cost savings achieved since 2022 and continued investment across its portfolio. The company recently approved final investment decisions for Australia’s Gorgon Stage 3 integrated gas development and Nigeria’s HI gas project, supporting future growth in upstream production and LNG capacity despite a weaker pricing and margin environment.

    Shell’s outlook reflects a stable financial position supported by strong operating margins and a resilient balance sheet. Attractive valuation metrics and positive investor sentiment following recent results provide additional support. However, technical trading indicators suggest potential short-term weakness, while slower revenue and cash flow growth remain key risks to monitor.

    More about Shell

    Shell plc is a global energy company operating across the oil, natural gas and liquefied natural gas value chains, alongside expanding investments in electricity and lower-carbon energy solutions. The company produces, processes and trades hydrocarbons, supplies fuels and lubricants globally, and continues to develop integrated gas, chemicals and cleaner energy projects to serve industrial, commercial and retail customers worldwide.

  • Compass Group Reports Strong Q1 Growth, Completes Vermaat Acquisition and Plans Dollar Share Switch

    Compass Group Reports Strong Q1 Growth, Completes Vermaat Acquisition and Plans Dollar Share Switch

    Compass Group (LSE:CPG) reported a strong start to its financial year, delivering 7.3% organic revenue growth in the first quarter to 31 December 2025. The performance was driven by solid contributions from both North American and international operations, with the Sports & Leisure and Business & Industry segments continuing to lead growth. Net new business expansion remained within the company’s targeted 4–5% range, supported by client retention levels exceeding 96%.

    During the quarter, Compass completed the $1.7 billion acquisition of Dutch food services provider Vermaat, strengthening its presence and operational expertise across several European markets. The group also deployed a total of $1.9 billion in merger and acquisition activity over the period, reflecting its continued focus on expansion through strategic investments.

    Compass further announced that it will change the trading currency of its London-listed shares from sterling to US dollars starting 1 April 2026. The shift is intended to align the listing currency with the group’s reporting currency and reduce the impact of foreign exchange movements on share price volatility.

    The company reaffirmed its guidance for 2026, targeting approximately 10% underlying operating profit growth. This is expected to be supported by continued organic business expansion, contributions from recent acquisitions and ongoing margin improvement initiatives.

    Compass Group’s outlook remains supported by strong financial performance and positive operational momentum, although technical trading indicators suggest weaker share price momentum. Valuation metrics indicate the shares are relatively highly priced, while conservative long-term growth projections and the potential for increased leverage present additional considerations for investors.

    More about Compass Group PLC

    Compass Group PLC is a global provider of contract food services and support services across a wide range of sectors, including Business & Industry and Sports & Leisure. The company has a significant presence in North America and international markets and is expanding its footprint across Europe, particularly in countries such as the Netherlands, France and Germany, supported by targeted acquisitions and a growing focus on technology-sector clients.

  • Afentra Pursues Production Growth as Angolan Redevelopment Drives Resource Expansion

    Afentra Pursues Production Growth as Angolan Redevelopment Drives Resource Expansion

    Afentra (LSE:AET) reported net average production of 6,324 barrels of oil per day during 2025, generating revenue of $114.4 million from total sales of 1.63 million barrels. The company maintained operating costs at approximately $23 per barrel and finished the year with net debt of $21.8 million, reflecting continued operational discipline while advancing its growth strategy.

    During the year, Afentra progressed a multi-year redevelopment programme across Angola’s Block 3/05 and Block 3/05A assets. The company completed a series of light well intervention activities and is preparing for a major infill drilling and heavy workover campaign scheduled for 2026 and 2027. These planned activities are expected to significantly increase both production levels and recoverable reserves.

    Independent resource evaluations highlighted a substantial expansion in the company’s asset base, with 2C contingent resources increasing more than fourfold to approximately 87.3 million barrels of oil equivalent. The assessments also confirmed 2P reserves of 106.3 million barrels gross, underscoring the long-term development potential within Afentra’s Angolan portfolio.

    The company also continued to expand its asset footprint, securing its first operatorship with a 40% interest in Block 3/24, progressing the acquisition of additional stakes from Etu Energias, advancing exploration work across onshore Kwanza basin licences, and completing its exit from the Odewayne block in Somaliland.

    From a financial perspective, Afentra is seeking to extend its reserve-based lending facility and is reviewing funding options to support upcoming drilling and workover campaigns. The company has also launched an employee share purchase initiative designed to support long-term incentive programmes without diluting existing shareholders. Management views 2026 as a key year that could deliver a meaningful step-change in both production output and resource growth.

    Afentra’s outlook is supported by strong operational performance and favourable valuation metrics, although technical trading indicators suggest some bearish short-term momentum. The company’s ongoing redevelopment initiatives and portfolio expansion activities are expected to strengthen its longer-term growth trajectory.

    More about Afentra

    Afentra plc is an AIM-listed upstream oil and gas company focused on acquiring and redeveloping producing and development-stage assets across Africa. Its core portfolio includes offshore interests in Angola’s Blocks 3/05, 3/05A and Block 3/24, alongside onshore exploration licences in the Kwanza basin. Afentra’s strategy focuses on infrastructure-led development, asset revitalisation, integrity management and targeted drilling and workover campaigns to increase recovery rates, expand reserves and drive sustained production growth.

  • Playtech Raises 2025 Earnings Outlook on Strong Momentum in the Americas

    Playtech Raises 2025 Earnings Outlook on Strong Momentum in the Americas

    Playtech (LSE:PTEC) has increased its full-year 2025 earnings guidance, forecasting adjusted EBITDA of at least €195 million, well ahead of earlier analyst expectations. The upgrade follows stronger-than-anticipated trading during the second half of the year, supported primarily by robust performance across the United States and Mexico.

    Despite ongoing industry challenges, including higher gambling taxes in certain regions such as the UK, Playtech said strong revenue growth across the Americas is accelerating returns on recent strategic investments. The company believes this regional strength supports confidence in its outlook for 2026 and its medium-term financial targets.

    Playtech continues to target adjusted EBITDA of between €250 million and €300 million, alongside projected free cash flow of €70 million to €100 million over the medium term. The company said the improved outlook reflects its ongoing strategy of focusing on regulated gambling markets and expanding its presence in high-growth jurisdictions across the Americas.

    From an investment perspective, Playtech benefits from supportive valuation metrics and positive corporate developments that could enhance shareholder value. While financial performance trends show improving potential, revenue growth consistency and profitability remain areas to monitor. Technical indicators currently point to favourable trading momentum, although elevated readings suggest the possibility of short-term overbought conditions.

    More about Playtech

    Playtech plc is a global technology provider to the gambling industry, founded in 1999 and listed on the London Stock Exchange. The company employs more than 7,400 staff across 20 countries and delivers business intelligence-driven software, content, services and platform technologies across casino, live casino, sports betting, bingo and poker segments. Its omni-channel Playtech ONE platform integrates single-wallet capabilities, customer relationship management tools and responsible gambling features for online and land-based operators, as well as government-backed gaming entities operating in regulated and emerging markets.