Author: Fiona Craig

The U.S. earnings recovery is becoming much less dependent on megacap stocks, prompting Morgan Stanley to favour quality businesses, artificial intelligence adopters, large-cap financials and consumer discretionary goods. Strategists led by Michael Wilson say the market is also distinguishing more clearly between companies merely delivering higher earnings and those converting that growth into stronger free cash flow.

Earnings momentum spreads beyond megacaps

Second-quarter reporting has produced one of the strongest earnings environments of the current cycle.

Approximately 87% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings forecasts, improving from 82% in the previous quarter.

Earnings revision breadth has rebounded to 23%, while 76% of industry groups are experiencing positive revisions.

“The key point is that earnings strength is no longer confined to a narrow group of megacap stocks,” Morgan Stanley’s strategists said.

The broadening suggests investors have a larger universe of companies capable of generating meaningful earnings growth.

Russell 3000 profits accelerate

The improvement is particularly evident across the wider U.S. equity market.

Median Russell 3000 earnings growth has reached 15%, its strongest rate since 2021.

Median revenue growth is approximately 8%, close to its strongest pace since 2023.

Together, these trends suggest the earnings recovery has increasingly solid foundations as revenue growth accompanies improving profitability.

Free cash flow separates winners from losers

The market is becoming more selective as earnings growth spreads.

Morgan Stanley found that the median S&P 500 company receiving positive revisions to both 2026 EPS and free cash flow subsequently outperformed by 1.6% on a relative basis.

Companies receiving positive EPS revisions alongside declining free cash flow forecasts underperformed by 0.2%.

For investors, that difference is significant.

Morgan Stanley said “headline earnings growth alone is becoming less sufficient,” with investors increasingly focused on cash conversion, sustainability and operational quality.

AI adoption becomes a stock-selection factor

Companies successfully incorporating artificial intelligence into their operations remain another preferred group.

Morgan Stanley’s targeted AI-adopter basket continues to outperform the broader market.

The opportunity extends beyond traditional AI infrastructure suppliers.

Businesses capable of using AI to automate processes, increase employee productivity, reduce expenses or improve customer experiences could generate measurable efficiency gains.

That gives investors another way to participate in AI beyond semiconductors and data-centre infrastructure.

Financials remain overweight

Morgan Stanley maintains an overweight position in financials.

Insurance and capital-markets companies are its preferred areas within the sector, supported by improving earnings revisions and favourable signals from the bank’s regime analysis.

A steeper yield curve could reinforce the outlook, although a sharp increase in longer-term yields would introduce additional risks.

Consumer goods positioned for recovery

Consumer discretionary goods also feature among Morgan Stanley’s preferred exposures.

The bank sees household wallet share shifting from services towards goods.

Pricing conditions are improving at the same time that earnings revision breadth is recovering.

Morgan Stanley believes these trends could support a performance catch-up after previous weakness.

Hyperscalers offer better risk-reward than semis

Technology remains important, but Morgan Stanley is selective within the sector.

Semiconductor shares “can continue to participate tactically following the recent momentum unwind.”

Over a longer, multi-month horizon, however, hyperscalers are the preferred exposure.

Morgan Stanley points to their “resilient core businesses, attractive relative valuation and underappreciated optionality around AI-related ROI and adoption.”

That provides hyperscalers with several potential drivers, including core cloud demand, AI adoption and improving returns from infrastructure spending.

Bond yields and oil could challenge the outlook

The main threats to Morgan Stanley’s constructive positioning are higher long-term interest rates and rising oil prices.

Two-year Treasury yields have retreated from their late-July peak, helping produce a steeper yield curve.

A rapid increase at the longer end of the curve would be less supportive.

If inflation expectations or real yields rise sharply, higher long-term borrowing costs “could become a more meaningful risk.”

That could increase companies’ cost of capital and place pressure on equity valuations.

Quality takes priority as earnings breadth improves

Morgan Stanley’s positioning reflects a market in which earnings opportunities are becoming broader but stock selection is becoming more important.

The bank favours companies capable of combining earnings growth with strong cash generation rather than businesses producing headline EPS improvements without corresponding free cash flow.

Its preferred areas are quality stocks, AI adopters, large-cap financials and consumer discretionary goods, while hyperscalers rank ahead of semiconductor companies within technology.

With earnings growth spreading across the Russell 3000 and positive revisions appearing across most industry groups, Morgan Stanley sees a healthier market backdrop—but one where profitability, cash conversion and AI-driven efficiency increasingly separate the winners from the rest.

JPMorgan has become more bullish on the S&P 500 following a powerful second-quarter earnings season, raising its 2026 index target from 7,800 to 8,000. Stronger corporate profits and mounting evidence that hyperscalers are generating commercial returns from their enormous artificial intelligence investments underpin the upgrade, although the bank remains cautious about stretching market valuations further.

JPMorgan upgrades earnings forecasts

Second-quarter earnings have exceeded JPMorgan’s expectations across a wide range of industries.

With 87% of S&P 500 companies having reported, strategists led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas said performance “remains strong and broad-based across multiple sectors.”

JPMorgan now expects S&P 500 EPS to reach $365 in 2026, compared with the consensus estimate of $358.

That would represent annual growth of approximately 35%.

The bank also raised its 2027 forecast to $420 per share, implying another 15% increase.

Underlying EPS growth remains powerful

Private-company investment gains have provided a notable boost to reported earnings.

Based on valuations recorded during the first six months of 2026, JPMorgan calculates that these gains have added approximately $18 to index-level EPS.

Stripping them out reduces normalised 2026 EPS to around $347.

Even then, annual earnings growth would remain an impressive 28%, suggesting the market’s fundamental strength extends well beyond non-operating valuation gains.

Higher target does not rely on multiple expansion

JPMorgan continues to apply a forward valuation multiple of approximately 20 times earnings.

That is despite describing the environment as “one of the strongest fundamental backdrops since GFC.”

The bank remains reluctant to assume further multiple expansion because interest rates could stay higher for longer, geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated and financial markets must absorb significant amounts of equity and debt issuance.

The path towards 8,000 therefore depends primarily on earnings growth rather than investors paying increasingly expensive multiples.

Hyperscalers begin proving AI returns

AI investment remains one of the most important forces shaping the market.

The focus, however, is shifting.

Rather than simply assessing how much hyperscalers are spending, investors increasingly want evidence that those investments can generate revenue, cash flow and acceptable returns on invested capital.

JPMorgan sees signs that this process is underway.

Google, Amazon and Microsoft stood out during earnings season as “stronger cloud growth, backlog expansion, and improved operating cash flow visibility cleared a high investor expectation bar.”

AI spending could exceed $1.2 trillion

Capital expenditure nevertheless continues to rise at an extraordinary rate.

Consensus estimates suggest AI capex will reach approximately $900 billion by the end of 2026, representing 85% annual growth.

By the end of 2027, spending is projected to exceed $1.2 trillion.

The investment wave is creating enormous demand throughout the AI ecosystem, from semiconductors and servers to data centres, networking infrastructure, power generation and cooling equipment.

Cloud growth provides evidence of monetisation

Cloud results strengthened the argument that hyperscalers are beginning to translate AI investment into revenue.

AWS expanded 37% year over year, Azure grew 43%, and Google Cloud delivered record growth of 82%.

Backlog growth was equally striking.

Google Cloud added $52 billion sequentially, taking its backlog to $514 billion.

AWS backlog increased 36% from the previous quarter to $496 billion, almost 2.5 times the level recorded a year earlier.

Those figures provide considerable visibility into future demand.

AI capex creates a $430 billion cash flow gap

The biggest concern is increasingly cash generation.

Combined trailing-12-month hyperscaler net income has risen to $599 billion, while free cash flow stands at just $169 billion.

That leaves a gap of approximately $430 billion.

At the end of 2023, the two measures were roughly equal, illustrating how dramatically the AI capital-spending cycle has changed cash-flow dynamics.

JPMorgan expects this pressure to persist.

Apart from Microsoft, its analysts forecast that most hyperscalers will generate negative free cash flow through the 2026-2027 period.

Earnings growth drives JPMorgan’s 8,000 target

The combination of strong corporate earnings and improving AI monetisation has given JPMorgan greater confidence in further S&P 500 gains.

The bank’s 2026 EPS estimate now stands at $365, rising to $420 in 2027.

Rather than relying on further valuation expansion, JPMorgan has kept its forward multiple near 20 times, meaning stronger profits are doing most of the work behind the upgraded index forecast.

While enormous AI investment is placing considerable pressure on free cash flow, accelerating cloud revenue and record backlogs provide increasing evidence that this spending is generating demand.

JPMorgan consequently sees the S&P 500 reaching 8,000 in 2026.

U.S. industrial companies delivered considerably stronger growth than Citi expected during the second quarter of 2026, supported by booming data centre investment and early indications of a recovery in shorter-cycle markets. Organic growth reached 6.9%, compared with the bank’s 4.0% forecast, while sector profitability also remained resilient with average operating margins above 21%.

Organic growth reaches 6.9%

Citi’s second-quarter analysis showed industrial organic growth of 6.9%, almost three percentage points above its 4.0% projection.

The scale of the beat suggests underlying industrial demand is proving more resilient than anticipated.

The composition of that growth is also becoming increasingly important.

While powerful structural markets such as data centres remain major contributors, Citi is seeing greater breadth across industrial end markets.

That could make the growth outlook more durable if activity continues improving.

AI infrastructure drives industrial demand

The expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure remains one of the sector’s most significant growth engines.

Building increasingly powerful data centres requires substantial investment in electricity distribution, cooling, power management and other specialised industrial equipment.

The effects could spread much further than companies directly supplying data centres.

Rising electricity consumption requires utilities to upgrade generation and transmission networks, while supporting infrastructure must also expand to accommodate new facilities.

Citi therefore sees potential for AI-related investment to stimulate broader industrial demand.

Short-cycle markets begin to recover

Another encouraging development is emerging in shorter-cycle businesses.

Citi identified increasing signs of a short-cycle recovery, potentially signalling that improving demand is spreading into industrial markets that respond more quickly to economic conditions.

Such a recovery would complement the longer-term infrastructure investment already supporting the sector.

If sustained, stronger short-cycle activity could improve order growth, capacity utilisation and operating leverage across a wider range of industrial businesses.

Profitability exceeds Citi forecast

Industrial margins also performed slightly better than expected.

The sector recorded an average operating margin of 21.4%, exceeding Citi’s 21.2% projection.

Maintaining margins above 20% demonstrates strong profitability despite changing economic and cost conditions.

Additional volume growth could provide further operating leverage, while effective pricing strategies offer another potential route towards margin improvement.

PH, VRT, ETN, EMR and TT lead Citi’s picks

Citi’s preferred industrial companies are Parker Hannifin (NYSE:PH), Vertiv (NYSE:VRT), Eaton (NYSE:ETN), Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR) and Trane Technologies (NYSE:TT).

The bank sees these companies as industry leaders with favourable demand exposure and positive order momentum.

Their businesses also provide exposure to several structural investment themes, including data centres, electrification, automation, energy efficiency and power management.

That combination could allow them to benefit from both secular infrastructure spending and a broader cyclical recovery.

Power investment supports Quanta Services

Quanta Services (NYSE:PWR) is another beneficiary of the investment environment identified by Citi.

The company has significant exposure to U.S. power infrastructure, where spending is expected to continue over multiple years.

Electricity networks face growing requirements from data centres, electrification and broader grid-modernisation programmes.

These trends could provide Quanta Services with sustained demand as utilities expand and reinforce their transmission and distribution infrastructure.

MasTec sell-off could create opportunity

Citi also highlighted MasTec (NYSE:MTZ) following weakness in the shares after its second-quarter update.

Investor concerns centred on expectations for the company’s communications operations.

However, Citi views the pullback as a potential entry opportunity for longer-term investors.

A substantial backlog and favourable demand trends provide reasons for optimism beyond the immediate communications-related concerns.

Industrial valuation premium remains modest

Despite the improving outlook, industrial valuations have not moved dramatically beyond their historical relationship with the broader market.

The sector’s average next-12-month P/E relative to the S&P 500 stands at 1.11 times.

Its 10-year average is 1.10 times.

That means industrial stocks are trading at only a slightly larger premium than usual, despite organic growth materially exceeding Citi’s expectations.

Citi sees increasingly broad industrial momentum

The combination of 6.9% organic growth, operating margins above 21% and expanding data centre investment leaves Citi with a constructive view of the industrial sector.

The emerging short-cycle recovery could be particularly important because it suggests momentum is spreading beyond AI infrastructure and other secular growth markets.

Citi’s preferred exposure includes Parker Hannifin (NYSE:PH), Vertiv (NYSE:VRT), Eaton (NYSE:ETN), Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR) and Trane Technologies (NYSE:TT), while Quanta Services (NYSE:PWR) and MasTec (NYSE:MTZ) provide additional ways to gain exposure to infrastructure and improving industrial demand.

A sharp increase in U.S. equity issuance is unlikely to overwhelm the stock market in 2026 because companies are simultaneously buying back shares at an even faster pace, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank forecasts approximately $1.4 trillion of corporate repurchases this year, enough to absorb rising primary issuance and additional stock entering the market following IPO lockup expirations.

Follow-on offerings reach strongest pace since 2021

U.S. companies raised $105 billion through follow-on equity offerings during the first seven months of the year.

Total second-quarter issuance across IPOs, follow-ons, convertible securities and SPACs reached a record $252 billion.

That exceeded the previous quarterly record of $234 billion set in early 2021.

Goldman nevertheless sees the increase as normalisation rather than excessive capital raising.

“Follow-on equity issuance is increasing but represents a return to normal rather than a boom,” strategists led by Ben Snider said.

The number of deals remains below historical averages, as does issuance when measured against total U.S. equity-market capitalisation.

AI accounts for 40% of follow-on issuance

Artificial intelligence is playing a central role in the increase.

Around 40% of U.S. follow-on equity issuance this year has been connected to AI-related financing requirements.

Goldman expects this trend “will continue to increase going forward.”

The enormous cost of building data centres, acquiring computing hardware and developing related infrastructure means AI companies increasingly need external financing in addition to internally generated cash.

Equity markets offer one route to raising that capital without relying entirely on debt.

Hyperscalers face $1.1 trillion capex bill

Consensus forecasts suggest hyperscaler capital expenditure could reach $1.1 trillion during 2027.

At that level, spending would exceed operating cash flow by approximately $150 billion.

Free cash flow is expected to turn positive again in 2028, but there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the forecasts.

“While recent earnings reports signal upside risk to estimates for hyperscaler revenues, many investors believe capex will register well above consensus forecasts,” Goldman said.

A larger-than-expected capex cycle could increase the need for both debt and equity financing.

AI debt issuance could reach $400 billion

Debt markets are expected to absorb most of the financing requirement.

Goldman’s credit team forecasts that hyperscalers will fund approximately 35% of their 2027 capital expenditure through borrowing.

That implies around $400 billion of debt issuance globally.

Equity nevertheless “should also continue to play a role.”

For some businesses, issuing shares could provide capital for long-term AI investment while preserving credit quality and preventing excessive reliance on already heavily utilised debt markets.

Investors show no signs of issuance fatigue

Rising equity supply has not yet created obvious pressure on market conditions.

Companies typically issue more shares when stock markets are performing strongly and their valuations command a premium to the wider market.

Goldman said that historical pattern has remained intact this year.

More importantly, investors appear capable of absorbing the increased issuance.

Offering discounts and subsequent stock performance show “any abnormal sign of indigestion,” according to the bank.

Buyback authorisations approach $1 trillion

While companies are issuing more shares, they are simultaneously announcing enormous repurchase programmes.

S&P 500 buybacks increased approximately 11% year over year during the second quarter.

New repurchase authorisations have already approached a record $1 trillion year-to-date.

These programmes create a substantial counterweight to the new supply entering equity markets.

As companies retire shares through buybacks, they reduce publicly available equity and create direct demand for their own stocks.

$1.4 trillion buyback wave outweighs new shares

Goldman expects corporate America to repurchase approximately $1.4 trillion of stock this year.

By comparison, primary equity issuance is projected at roughly $700 billion.

Additional supply could emerge as lockup periods expire for recently listed companies, allowing insiders and early investors to sell shares.

Even accounting for that potential pressure, Goldman believes corporate demand should outweigh supply.

The supply-demand balance is becoming somewhat less supportive than previously as AI financing requirements drive issuance higher.

However, with estimated buybacks running at approximately twice the level of primary equity issuance, corporate repurchases should remain a major source of support for U.S. equities throughout 2026.

Bearish investors could face mounting pressure if U.S. stocks continue climbing, according to Citi’s latest positioning analysis. Investors have been adding fresh long exposure across major U.S. indices rather than simply closing short positions, while existing S&P 500 shorts are accumulating losses that could eventually trigger forced buying.

U.S. positioning turns net long

Investor positioning improved across the main U.S. equity benchmarks during the latest week.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 recorded comparable improvements, with both moving from bearish positioning back into net long territory.

Citi emphasised that the shift was driven by fresh long accumulation rather than short covering.

This suggests investors are actively increasing exposure to potential market gains instead of merely unwinding bearish trades.

The Russell 2000 remains the most extended index tracked by Citi, reflecting particularly strong positioning in U.S. small-cap equities.

Losing S&P 500 shorts could be forced to cover

The market’s advance is creating increasingly uncomfortable conditions for short sellers.

Citi said average losses on S&P 500 short positions have become elevated, “leaving the sizeable short base vulnerable to forced covering should markets grind higher.”

A continued rally could therefore produce a feedback loop.

As losses increase, short sellers may close positions by buying stocks, adding demand to a market that is already advancing.

That additional buying could push prices higher again and force more bearish investors to exit.

Citi consequently believes positioning risks are “skewed toward additional squeeze-driven flows.”

New buying sends constructive market signal

Fresh long accumulation distinguishes the current positioning recovery from a rally driven mainly by short covering.

When investors close shorts, buying can disappear once bearish positions have been unwound.

New long exposure can indicate a more durable shift in sentiment because investors are actively committing capital in anticipation of further gains.

Citi’s data suggests this type of risk-taking has become increasingly visible across both U.S. and European markets.

Europe leads developed-market positioning recovery

Europe has experienced one of the strongest changes in investor positioning.

New long accumulation pushed the EuroStoxx 50 and FTSE towards moderately bullish positioning levels.

Germany’s DAX also continued recovering after earlier weakness, bringing its positioning closer to the constructive stance already evident across European banks.

Citi said Europe recorded the strongest overall positioning recovery among developed markets, while profit-and-loss conditions also improved.

Those trends could encourage additional risk-taking if European equities continue generating positive returns.

China and Australia improve while Korea weakens

Positioning also strengthened in Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 and China’s A50 index.

South Korea moved in the opposite direction.

KOSPI positioning continued to deteriorate, creating a heavily one-sided short book that Citi believes could become vulnerable if market sentiment changes.

The firm warned that the imbalance “is creating the potential for abrupt covering flows if sentiment improves.”

That leaves South Korean equities exposed to a potentially sharp short-covering rally even though current positioning remains bearish.

Vulnerable shorts could amplify another leg higher

Citi’s data indicates that global investors are gradually rebuilding equity exposure, with the strongest signs appearing in the U.S. and Europe.

The key development is that new long positions are driving much of the improvement.

At the same time, bearish investors have not disappeared.

The S&P 500 retains a sizeable short base that is already experiencing meaningful losses, while South Korea has developed an increasingly concentrated bearish position.

If markets continue rising, those shorts could become an additional source of buying as traders are forced to cover.

That combination of fresh bullish positioning and vulnerable bearish exposure could amplify the next leg of the global equity rally.