Category: Market News

Senior plc (LSE:SNR) said Tuesday that its board has agreed to a recommended all-cash takeover by Zeus UK Bidco Limited, an acquisition vehicle backed by investment funds managed by Tinicum Incorporated and Blackstone Inc.

Under the proposed transaction, Senior shareholders will receive 300 pence per share, made up of 297.85 pence in cash and a final dividend of 2.15 pence for the 2025 financial year. The cash component represents a 36.6% premium to the company’s six-month volume-weighted average share price and a 2.8% premium to the closing price of 289.80 pence recorded on Wednesday.

The offer values Senior’s total issued share capital at about £1.28 billion on a fully diluted basis and implies an enterprise value of roughly £1.40 billion. The valuation equates to around 15.2 times the company’s adjusted EBITDA and 22.0 times its adjusted operating profit for the year ended December 31, 2025.

Senior’s board, which received financial advice from Lazard, said it considers the terms of the transaction fair and reasonable and intends to recommend that shareholders approve the deal at both the court meeting and the general meeting. Directors have already committed to vote in favor of the proposal with their combined holding of 2,620,740 shares, representing approximately 0.6% of the company’s issued share capital.

Zeus UK Bidco has also secured an irrevocable undertaking from Alantra to support the scheme with its holding of 72,307,009 shares, equivalent to around 17.2% of Senior’s share capital. Together with the directors’ shares, this brings total committed support for the transaction to approximately 17.9%.

The acquiring consortium plans to combine Senior with AeroFlow Technologies, a company recently acquired by Tinicum, under common ownership. According to the consortium, the integration would create complementary aerospace capabilities and strengthen earnings resilience.

Completion of the deal is subject to shareholder approval and will be carried out through a court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement under Part 26 of the UK Companies Act. The formal scheme document is expected to be issued within 28 days.

Oil prices pushed higher during Asian trading on Tuesday as markets prepared for the possibility of escalating tensions in the Middle East ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

At 03:15 ET (07:15 GMT), Brent crude futures for June delivery had gained 1.5% to $111.37 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 2.2% to $114.85 per barrel.

The increases marked the third consecutive day of gains, driven by mounting concerns over the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial maritime passage that typically handles around one-fifth of global oil shipments.

On Monday, Iran rejected a U.S.-supported proposal that included a 45-day ceasefire and a gradual reopening of the strait, along with broader negotiations over sanctions relief and post-conflict reconstruction.

Instead, Tehran demanded a permanent ceasefire, binding guarantees against future attacks, the lifting of sanctions, and compensation for damages.

Trump reiterated that the Tuesday deadline of 8 p.m. ET would not be extended and warned that failure to comply could lead to U.S. military strikes targeting Iranian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants.

He said Iran could be “taken out” quickly, emphasizing the increasing risk of a broader regional escalation.

The sharper tone in Washington has left energy markets on edge, with traders factoring in the risk of further supply disruptions across the Gulf.

Media reports indicated that Iran and Israel exchanged attacks on Tuesday, highlighting the lack of progress toward a diplomatic resolution.

Recent disruptions to tanker traffic have already tightened expectations for global supply and increased the risk premium embedded in oil prices.

Although OPEC+ has announced modest production increases, analysts say the additional output is unlikely to materialize in practice due to ongoing logistical and operational constraints.

“With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, higher quotas remain largely notional for producers, including Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, until the route reopens,” ING analysts said in a note.

Gold prices posted modest gains on Tuesday while the U.S. dollar slipped, as investors remained cautious ahead of the deadline set by President Donald Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

At 05:04 ET (09:04 GMT), spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,685.54 per ounce, while gold futures for June delivery climbed 0.6% to $4,710.84 per ounce.

Trump warned that the United States would target “every bridge” and “power plant” in Iran if Tehran fails to meet his Tuesday deadline of 8 p.m. ET to agree to a deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic waterway—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply flows—has effectively been closed to tanker traffic, pushing oil prices higher and raising concerns about inflation and the global economic outlook.

Iran has called for a comprehensive agreement that includes sanctions relief, security guarantees and compensation for damages. However, media reports suggest Washington is unlikely to accept those terms.

If new U.S. strikes take place, Trump said Iran would need “100 years to rebuild.”

Despite the tough rhetoric, Trump also indicated that diplomacy could still end the conflict, which began in late February after joint U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.

Gold also drew support from ongoing purchases by China’s central bank, which extended its gold-buying streak to a seventeenth consecutive month. The People’s Bank of China reported holdings of 74.38 million fine troy ounces at the end of March, compared with 74.22 million in February.

Gold still under pressure over the past month

Even with Tuesday’s gains, gold prices have declined over the past month as rising energy costs have strengthened expectations that central banks could keep interest rates elevated for longer. Because gold does not generate yield, it often struggles in environments where borrowing costs remain high.

Another factor weighing on the metal has been the stronger U.S. dollar. The greenback has benefited from safe-haven demand as investors seek stability amid geopolitical tensions, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

On Tuesday, the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of major rivals, fell by 0.2%.

However, the dollar remains roughly 0.8% higher over the past month. During the same period, spot gold has declined by more than 8%.

Goldman Sachs has slightly lowered its forecast for average copper prices in 2026, now expecting the metal to trade at around $12,650 per tonne compared with its previous estimate of $12,850. The revision reflects softer demand expectations linked to slower global economic growth, although the bank continues to see strong long-term support for copper from electrification trends.

The bank now estimates the global copper market will record a surplus of roughly 490,000 tonnes this year, up from its earlier projection of 380,000 tonnes. At the same time, Goldman reduced its forecast for global refined copper demand growth to 1.6% year-on-year from 2%. The adjustment follows the bank’s economists estimating that the recent energy price shock tied to disruptions in the Middle East could shave about 0.4 percentage points off global GDP growth.

Goldman said the downward adjustment to copper demand is less pronounced than the revision applied to aluminium, reflecting copper’s increasingly structural importance in the global economy.

“This is a smaller demand revision than aluminium because of the increasingly strategic and structural nature of copper demand, making it less sensitive to global economic cycles,” analysts led by Aurelia Waltham said.

In the near term, Goldman expects copper prices to remain volatile but believes the market could stabilize if macroeconomic conditions improve.

In its base-case scenario—which assumes that energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz begin recovering from mid-April—the bank forecasts copper prices to average about $12,700 per tonne in the second quarter of 2026. Prices are then expected to gradually move toward Goldman’s fair value estimate of roughly $12,000 per tonne during the second half of the year.

The bank also warned that current copper prices may be running ahead of underlying fundamentals. Even after a pullback in March, copper still trades well above Goldman’s estimated fair value for 2026 of around $11,100 per tonne, leaving the metal “vulnerable to another move lower should the economic outlook deteriorate and investors de-risk.”

Goldman added that its forecasts do not yet account for potential supply disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East. For example, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which produces about 15% of global mined copper, depends on sulfur shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz for a critical stage of its production process.

Industry feedback cited by the bank suggests that producers in the DRC typically maintain sulfuric acid inventories covering up to three months of operations. As a result, a short disruption would likely have limited consequences, although a prolonged interruption could tighten supply and reduce the projected surplus.

Looking further ahead, Goldman left its long-term forecast unchanged and continues to expect copper prices to reach $15,000 per tonne by 2035. The analysts argued that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could reinforce the electrification theme, noting that power grids and energy infrastructure are projected to account for around 60% of global copper demand growth in their forecasts through 2030.

Economic expansion in the eurozone’s private sector slowed to its weakest pace in nine months in March, according to the latest PMI survey released Tuesday by S&P Global, as incoming orders declined and input costs climbed to their highest level in more than three years.

The S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index slipped to 50.7 in March from 51.9 in February, signalling the slowest rate of growth since June 2025. Although the figure remained above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction, it was well below the long-term average of 52.4.

The deceleration was largely driven by the services sector. The Services Business Activity Index dropped to 50.2 from 51.9 the previous month, reaching its lowest level in ten months. By contrast, manufacturing output continued to show solid growth.

Among the largest eurozone economies, Spain recorded the strongest expansion in March, with growth accelerating. Ireland followed, although its growth rate eased to a six-month low. Germany also remained in expansion territory, but activity grew at the slowest pace of the year so far. Meanwhile, France and Italy both recorded declines in activity.

Across the eurozone, total new orders fell in March for the first time since July 2025, largely reflecting weaker demand for services. Export orders—including trade within the euro area—also declined, though the pace of the drop remained modest.

Employment in the private sector edged lower during the month, marking the sharpest reduction in payrolls in 13 months. The decline was mainly linked to a stronger fall in manufacturing jobs.

Cost pressures increased sharply. Input price inflation rose to its highest level in just over three years, with manufacturers reporting a record one-month jump in their input price index, which climbed nearly 11 points compared with February. Service providers also reported steep increases in operating costs.

Companies raised their selling prices at the fastest pace since February 2024, although the rise in output prices was still smaller than the surge in input costs.

Business sentiment weakened as well. Overall optimism among firms declined for the first time since December 2025 and fell to its lowest level in almost a year.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the March PMI figures show that the eurozone economy has been significantly affected by the conflict in the Middle East. “The encouraging signs of growth seen earlier in the year have been eradicated thanks to surging energy prices, choked supply chains, financial market volatility and a renewed downturn in demand,” Williamson said.

According to Williamson, the survey data point to eurozone GDP growth of around 0.2% in the first quarter. However, he warned that the region could face a contraction in the second quarter unless the conflict is resolved quickly.

Pershing Square Capital Management (LSE:PSH) announced on Tuesday that it has put forward a non-binding offer to acquire Universal Music Group (EU:UMG), valuing the music company at roughly €30.40 per share—about 78% above its current market price.

According to the proposal, UMG shareholders would receive €5.05 per share in cash, representing approximately €9.4 billion in total, alongside 0.77 shares in a newly listed company for each UMG share they hold.

The hedge fund, led by chief executive Bill Ackman, said the deal would be carried out through a merger with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings. The transaction would result in a U.S.-listed entity trading on the New York Stock Exchange under U.S. GAAP reporting standards, potentially making it eligible for inclusion in the S&P 500 index.

Ackman argued that UMG’s shares have “languished” despite strong operating performance, pointing to factors unrelated to the underlying music business. These include uncertainty surrounding Bolloré Group’s 18% shareholding, delays to a planned U.S. listing, what he described as an underutilised balance sheet and the absence of a clearly defined capital allocation strategy. He also highlighted what he believes is a lack of market recognition for UMG’s €2.7 billion stake in Spotify.

“Sir Lucian Grainge and the company’s management have done an excellent job… generating strong business performance,” Ackman said.

“However, UMG’s stock price has languished due to a combination of issues that are unrelated to the performance of its music business.”

Pershing Square said it expects the transaction could be completed before the end of the year. The equity portion of the financing would be fully supported by Pershing Square and its affiliates, while debt financing would be secured at the time of signing.

If completed, the deal would result in the cancellation of about 17% of UMG’s outstanding shares, leaving the newly formed entity—referred to as New UMG—with around 1.54 billion shares outstanding, while maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet.

Legal advice to Pershing Square and SPARC is being provided by Sullivan & Cromwell, White & Case and Stibbe, with Jefferies acting as financial adviser.

hVIVO plc (LSE:HVO), a contract research organisation specialising in human challenge trials and early-stage drug development, has confirmed that it will publish its final results for the year ended 31 December 2025 on 15 April 2026.

The results announcement will be accompanied by presentations for equity analysts and an online investor briefing hosted by chief executive Yamin ‘Mo’ Khan and chief financial officer Stephen Pinkerton. The sessions will provide additional insight into the company’s performance and operations across its clinical research platform.

Management said the engagement reflects the company’s continued efforts to maintain active communication with the investment community while highlighting progress across its human challenge studies, laboratory services and early-phase clinical trial activities.

The company’s outlook is supported by strong financial performance and an attractive valuation profile. Solid revenue growth and relatively low leverage position the business favourably within the biotechnology services sector. While technical indicators suggest bullish momentum, the share price remains below certain longer-term moving averages, which may act as near-term resistance. A low price-to-earnings ratio combined with a reasonable dividend yield also adds to the company’s appeal for value and income-focused investors.

More about hVIVO plc

hVIVO plc is a full-service early-phase contract research organisation focused on human challenge clinical trials in infectious and respiratory diseases. The company operates the world’s largest quarantine facility in London and provides virology and immunology laboratory services through its hLAB division. It also runs early-phase clinical trial units in Germany through its CRS subsidiary and offers consulting and biometry services via Venn Life Sciences, supporting pharmaceutical and biotechnology clients worldwide.