U.S. stock futures moved up early Wednesday, while oil prices slipped back below $100 per barrel. Gold posted gains and the U.S. dollar weakened slightly as investors reacted to renewed optimism that the conflict involving Iran could move toward a resolution. Washington is reported to have outlined a 15-point proposal aimed at ending hostilities, although Tehran is said to be imposing demanding conditions for negotiations.
Futures move up
Futures tied to U.S. equities advanced Wednesday, supported by growing expectations that Washington and Tehran could be edging closer to diplomatic talks to end a conflict that has lasted nearly a month and raised fears of broader instability across the Middle East.
By 04:14 ET, futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 495 points, or 1.1%. Futures linked to the S&P 500 climbed 68 points, or 1.0%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 284 points, or 1.2%.
In the previous session, the main Wall Street benchmarks closed lower as investors weighed the prospects for a ceasefire between joint U.S.-Israeli forces and Iran. Military activity has continued, while Washington has reportedly deployed additional forces to the region. Some U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf have also urged President Donald Trump to continue the military campaign.
Tehran has dismissed Trump’s claim that recent discussions between the two sides were “very strong,” accusing the U.S. president of invoking the possibility of talks to calm volatile financial markets.
Market participants are also considering the potential economic effects of a prolonged conflict. Preliminary data on U.S. business activity for March added to those concerns, as S&P Global’s flash purchasing managers’ index dropped to its lowest level in eleven months, indicating that rising energy costs linked to the war are beginning to weigh on economic growth.
The effects may extend beyond the United States. PMI readings for the eurozone also warned of “ringing stagflation alarm bells,” referring to a combination of persistent inflation and sluggish economic growth.
Oil falls below $100 amid diplomatic hopes
Despite ongoing tensions, early trading on Wednesday reflected renewed optimism that the conflict could shift toward negotiations.
Reports suggested that mediators from Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan are working to arrange talks between officials from the United States and Iran as soon as Thursday.
With Trump reportedly seeking a diplomatic way out of the conflict, Washington is said to have presented Tehran with a 15-point peace proposal. Among the reported demands are the dismantling of Iran’s key nuclear facilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route south of Iran that has effectively been closed to tanker traffic for several weeks. The disruption has driven energy prices higher and raised concerns about inflation worldwide.
Iran is believed to have set strict conditions for entering negotiations, including the introduction of fees for ships traveling through the strait. An Iranian military spokesperson also expressed skepticism about the possibility of a swift resolution, stating that the U.S. is only “negotiating with” itself.
Despite the mixed signals surrounding the conflict, oil prices declined. By 04:31 ET, Brent crude futures for May delivery had fallen 6.5% to $97.68 per barrel. Although the benchmark has dropped below the key $100 level, it remains well above roughly $70 per barrel seen before the war began in late February.
Gold rises modestly
Gold prices increased during European trading hours, supported by softer oil prices and a slightly weaker U.S. dollar. However, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East limited further gains.
Spot gold rose 2.0% to $4,564.34 an ounce by 05:03 ET, while U.S. gold futures climbed 3.7% to $4,597.42.
Lower energy costs can ease bond yields and weaken the dollar, both of which typically support non-yielding assets such as gold.
Speaking to reporters Tuesday, Trump said Washington was “in negotiations right now” with Iran, adding that Tehran was “talking sense” and appeared eager to reach an agreement that would end the hostilities.
However, the fighting has continued, with new attacks targeting facilities in U.S.-allied countries in the Persian Gulf. Trump’s willingness to negotiate has reportedly unsettled some Gulf states, prompting Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to urge Washington to continue military operations until Iran’s regional influence is reduced.
Currency markets pause
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index — which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies — slipped 0.2% to 99.21.
Recent volatility in global currency markets also eased somewhat as Trump’s comments about potential talks with Iran helped lift equity markets in Europe and Asia and contributed to the decline in oil prices.
Still, analysts at ING warned that markets are likely to remain extremely sensitive to developments related to Iran.
“It seems dangerous to position for an early resolution of the crisis, with the Iranians likely to want to take high energy prices as leverage in any negotiations,” the analysts wrote, adding that upcoming speeches from European central bankers are “very likely to sound hawkish.”
A strategist cited by Reuters also suggested that investors may be experiencing a degree of “fatigue” as they attempt to track the rapid developments surrounding the conflict.
Chewy earnings ahead
Chewy Inc is scheduled to release its latest quarterly results, with investors watching closely for signs that the online pet retailer can stabilize sentiment after a prolonged decline in its share price.
The stock has fallen more than 29% over the past year.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley expect the company to report fourth-quarter revenue of about $3.27 billion, broadly in line with consensus estimates, alongside EBITDA of roughly $171 million, slightly above market expectations.
They view the results as a potential “set-up” for fiscal 2026, forecasting initial guidance for revenue growth of around 7% to 7.5% and EBITDA margin expansion of 90 to 100 basis points.
Analysts at Wolfe Research similarly anticipate a modest earnings beat, projecting revenue growth of about 0.8% year-on-year to $3.27 billion and EBITDA margins of 4.9%, representing an improvement of 109 basis points.
