Category: Market News

Bernstein has updated its forecast for copper prices, projecting an average of $12,419 per metric ton in 2026. The research house expects prices to average $11,750 per ton during the second half of the year, slightly below the broader market consensus of $12,515 per ton.

Structural Supply Tightness Supports Long-Term View

Looking beyond next year, Bernstein expects copper to average approximately $10,700 per metric ton by 2030 as structural supply shortages become more pronounced toward the end of the decade.

The firm believes that tightening mine supply will increasingly outweigh demand growth, creating a more supportive backdrop for copper prices over the longer term.

Federal Reserve and Dollar Remain Key Headwinds

Bernstein said copper continues to face pressure from a challenging macroeconomic environment. Higher energy costs resulting from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East have weakened industrial sentiment, while the stronger U.S. dollar and expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve have reduced appetite across commodity markets.

These macroeconomic factors continue to weigh on price performance despite improving supply fundamentals.

Physical Copper Market Becoming Tighter

On the supply side, Bernstein pointed to lower production guidance from several mining companies and continued inventory accumulation in the United States as factors tightening the physical copper market.

According to the firm, its revised forecast reflects the balance between near-term pressures from monetary policy and currency movements and increasingly constrained physical supply, which should continue to underpin copper prices.

European wholesale natural gas prices edged lower on Thursday after climbing to their highest levels in almost a month, as traders paused to assess the impact of the latest escalation in the Middle East and its implications for the region’s energy security.

The benchmark Dutch gas contract fell 0.8% to around €48.50 per megawatt-hour after surging to its strongest level since mid-June during Wednesday’s session. In the UK, the benchmark wholesale gas contract was little changed at 116.86 pence per therm, easing back from the multi-week high reached during the previous day’s sharp energy market sell-off.

Energy Markets Face Renewed Geopolitical Uncertainty

The recent price volatility reflects renewed concerns over the security of global energy supplies following the collapse of the latest diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran.

Only weeks after the 17 June memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran raised hopes that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could remain stable, those expectations were quickly reversed.

On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump declared the agreement “over”, before a second consecutive day of U.S. air strikes targeting Iranian military positions intended to protect commercial shipping routes from potential retaliation.

For Europe, which continues to rely heavily on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) after the loss of much of its Russian pipeline supply, the renewed tensions have revived concerns over supply security. With European gas storage levels still slightly below seasonal averages, any disruption to LNG shipments from Qatar through the Persian Gulf could complicate efforts to replenish inventories ahead of winter.

Inflation Risks Return to the Fore

The consequences of higher energy prices extend well beyond wholesale gas markets. The simultaneous increase in oil and natural gas prices has revived broader concerns about inflation across Europe.

Persistently elevated wholesale gas prices risk feeding through into electricity costs for businesses and households, potentially complicating efforts by central banks to bring inflation under control after several years of aggressive monetary tightening.

TotalEnergies SE (EU:TTE) has completed the sale of its entire European distributed solar portfolio as the French energy group reshapes its renewable energy strategy to concentrate on large-scale solar and wind projects.

The announcement follows a positive session for the company’s shares, which finished higher yesterday after oil prices recovered amid renewed geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.

The transaction covers approximately 170 MW of distributed solar assets, primarily rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems located in France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, the UK and Luxembourg. The portfolio has been acquired by independent renewable energy producer Amarenco together with AMPYR Distributed Energy, which will take ownership and operational control of the assets.

The companies did not disclose the financial terms of the transaction.

The disposal forms part of TotalEnergies’ 2026–2030 Strategy and Outlook, under which the company plans to reduce capital and operating expenditure by USD 7.5 billion (EUR 6.55 billion) in response to an uncertain macroeconomic environment. The strategy includes monetising renewable assets in non-core markets while accelerating investment in battery energy storage to benefit from electricity price volatility. TotalEnergies said its business model is better suited to developing utility-scale renewable projects, where economies of scale are greater, than smaller distributed generation assets of less than 3 MW. The company added that the divestment will not affect its wider renewable energy development plans.

Over the past 12 months, TotalEnergies has commissioned 8 GW of gross renewable generating capacity, bringing its total installed renewable portfolio to 35 GW at the end of March. The group intends to maintain that annual deployment rate through 2030, with the objective of exceeding 75 GW of installed capacity and achieving net electricity production of 100 TWh.

Hugo Boss (TG:BOSS) has urged shareholders to reject the voluntary takeover offer from Frasers Group (LSE:FRAS), with both its management and supervisory boards stating that the British retailer’s €38-per-share proposal does not adequately reflect the company’s long-term value or future growth prospects.

Frasers Group, which owns Sports Direct and is Hugo Boss’s largest shareholder, announced the offer last month. However, the German fashion group said the bid significantly undervalues the business as it continues to execute its strategic plan through 2028.

“The offer does not reflect the standalone prospects and future value creation potential of Hugo Boss,” the company said. “On this basis, the Managing Board and Supervisory Board recommend that shareholders do not accept the offer.”

Hugo Boss shares were little changed in European trading by 08:18 GMT following the recommendation.

The company also noted that the €38 offer represents the minimum price permitted under German takeover regulations. The figure is based on the highest price Frasers Group paid for Hugo Boss shares during the six months preceding the offer and, according to the board, should not be viewed as an assessment of the company’s intrinsic value.

Shares in Hugo Boss surged when Frasers Group announced its proposal last month, valuing the fashion retailer at approximately $2.3 billion. At the time, Hugo Boss described the approach as uncoordinated and confirmed that its board would conduct a formal review. The offer values the company’s outstanding shares at around €2 billion.

Following the announcement, analysts at JPMorgan said the proposal was likely to provide a near-term floor for the share price but saw limited scope for a competing offer to emerge.

Hugo Boss shares remain well below the levels seen three years ago as the company continues to implement its turnaround strategy. Its “Claim 5 Touchdown” plan focuses on modernising stores, streamlining product ranges and expanding its womenswear business. Through the strategy, the company is targeting an EBIT margin of around 12% and average annual free cash flow of approximately €300 million by 2028, supported by stronger brand positioning, improved distribution and greater operational efficiency.

Saga (LSE:SAGA) shares gained 4.0% during Thursday’s trading session, rising to 612.6p after Berenberg initiated coverage of the specialist provider for the over-50s market with a Buy recommendation and a price target of 1,025p. The target suggests potential upside of around 62% from the previous closing price of 589p.

The broker’s initiation attracted strong investor attention at the market open, with Berenberg outlining several factors supporting a more positive outlook for the company.

A key element of the investment case is Saga’s 20-year affinity insurance partnership with Ageas, which began in mid-2025 after the company sold its underwriting business for £67.5 million. Berenberg believes the agreement transforms Saga’s insurance operations into a capital-light broking model, improving the group’s long-term financial profile.

The analysts also highlighted continued strength in Saga’s Ocean Cruise division, together with a significant reduction in net debt, as evidence that the company is making solid progress in strengthening its balance sheet and executing its turnaround strategy.

Saga’s share price performance contrasted with a more subdued broader market. The FTSE 100 traded cautiously on 9 July as investors remained focused on rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that the Iran ceasefire was “over” weighed on sentiment and pushed oil prices higher. Against that backdrop, Berenberg’s positive assessment provided a company-specific catalyst that helped Saga outperform the wider market.

The combination of a favourable analyst initiation, a price target substantially above the current share price and confidence in the company’s ongoing transformation was enough to trigger a strong re-rating in the shares despite the uncertain market environment.

Following the latest gains, Saga shares remain within reach of their 52-week high of 680p, suggesting positive momentum could continue if additional analyst support emerges.

Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN) received an upgrade from Goldman Sachs on Thursday, with the investment bank raising its recommendation to Buy from Neutral. The broker said the diversified miner is well placed to benefit from favourable market conditions in copper, zinc and metallurgical coal, even as it remains cautious on the outlook for iron ore.

Shares in Glencore climbed 3.5% to 507.80 pence in London trading, comfortably outperforming the FTSE 100, which gained around 0.7% during the session.

Although Goldman Sachs reduced its 12-month price target to £6.30 from £6.60, it said the recent weakness across the mining sector has created a more attractive valuation. The revised target continues to indicate significant upside from the current share price.

According to the broker, Glencore offers one of the strongest combinations of exposure to its preferred commodities, together with potential earnings upside from its marketing division and an attractive valuation compared with other diversified mining companies.

Goldman expects copper prices to remain well supported by tightening global mine supply and the possibility of U.S. import tariffs. It also believes zinc fundamentals remain favourable due to ongoing shortages of concentrate supply. In addition, the bank has become more optimistic about metallurgical coal following supply disruptions in China’s Shanxi province and expectations of seasonal restocking demand from India and China later this year.

The broker also highlighted additional upside potential from Glencore’s marketing business, pointing to elevated volatility in energy markets and ongoing dislocations across the physical copper and aluminium markets. Goldman added that potential asset sales—including infrastructure holdings, Glencore’s remaining stake in Bunge and selected mining investments—could provide additional capital for enhanced shareholder returns over the next 12 to 18 months.

Looking more broadly across the sector, Goldman Sachs reiterated its positive view on European mining companies with significant exposure to copper and aluminium. The bank maintained Buy ratings on Antofagasta, Norsk Hydro and Lundin Mining, while continuing to take a more cautious stance on iron ore, warning that weaker steel demand could push prices towards $90 to $95 per tonne.