Frasers Group (LSE:FRAS) shares fell more than 6% on Tuesday after RBC Capital Markets cut its recommendation on the retailer to “underperform” from “sector perform”, arguing that recent share price gains have left limited upside for investors.
The broker increased its target price modestly to 750p from 720p, but said the stock’s 12% rise since the start of the year has pushed the valuation beyond what it considers fair value.
“The shares have now run slightly ahead of our fair value and we see more upside in several other stocks,” RBC said.
Valuation Suggests Limited Near-Term Upside
RBC’s 750p valuation is based on a combination of discounted cash flow and sum-of-the-parts methodologies.
The discounted cash flow model implies a value of approximately 712p per share, based on a 9% weighted average cost of capital and a 1% terminal growth rate. Meanwhile, the sum-of-the-parts analysis produces a valuation of around 789p per share.
Despite the higher target price, the broker believes the risk-reward profile has become less attractive relative to other opportunities within the retail sector.
Earnings Forecasts Lifted on Buyback Support
RBC raised its adjusted earnings per share forecasts for fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 to reflect the impact of ongoing share repurchase programmes.
The broker now expects adjusted EPS of 95.6p for fiscal 2026, up from a previous estimate of 93.6p, while its fiscal 2027 forecast has been increased to 103.7p from 100.8p.
Frasers recently announced a new £70 million share buyback programme, adding to a £70 million repurchase initiative unveiled in December 2025. The latest programme is scheduled to begin on June 16.
Core Sports Retail Business Faces Challenges
RBC forecasts revenue of £5.19 billion for fiscal 2026, representing growth of 5.4% year-on-year. However, underlying pre-tax profit is expected to edge down 0.9% to £555 million.
The broker highlighted softer prospects for the UK Sports Retail division, which accounts for roughly half of group revenue and earnings. RBC expects the segment to decline around 5% during fiscal 2026 before stabilising in fiscal 2027.
Hugo Boss Bid Raises Leverage Concerns
A key factor behind RBC’s cautious stance is Frasers’ proposed acquisition of Hugo Boss (TG:BOSS).
Last week, Frasers launched a voluntary public offer of €38 per share for the portion of Hugo Boss it does not already own, representing approximately 73.9% of the company’s share capital. The transaction would cost around £1.70 billion.
RBC estimates the acquisition would be modestly earnings accretive at the proposed price but would increase leverage, pushing net debt-to-EBITDA from roughly 1.3 times to around 2 times.
“We see potential for Frasers to have to pay more to secure 100% of BOSS,” Chamberlain wrote, noting the offer represented only a 4% premium to the pre-announcement share price.
Additional Acquisition Activity in Australia
Frasers has also made a takeover approach for Australia’s Accent Group, offering AUD0.65 per share for the 77.1% stake it does not already own. The proposal values the transaction at approximately £166 million.
RBC’s analysts covering Accent believe a higher offer may ultimately be required to gain support from shareholders.
International Expansion Remains a Mixed Picture
The retailer’s International Retail division now contributes close to 30% of group sales, compared with around 20% in fiscal 2025.
RBC values the segment at 0.3 times fiscal 2027 enterprise value-to-sales, reflecting what it described as a mixed track record across international markets despite the division’s growing importance.
Wide Range of Potential Outcomes
RBC’s downside scenario values Frasers at 400p per share, assuming long-term sales growth of around 1% annually and operating margins gradually declining to approximately 8%.
Its bullish scenario values the shares at 1,000p, based on assumptions of 5% long-term annual sales growth and operating margins improving to around 13%.
The broker believes future performance will largely depend on the success of Frasers’ acquisition strategy, international expansion efforts and its ability to sustain profitability across its core retail operations.









