Category: Market Summary

U.S. stock index futures are pointing to a stronger start on Monday, indicating that equities may attempt to recover some of the losses recorded during last week’s sharp decline.

Part of the early strength could come from bargain hunters stepping in after the recent selloff, as some investors look to accumulate shares that have fallen to lower price levels.

The downturn last week pushed the major U.S. indices to their weakest closing levels in more than eight months.

Market sentiment may also get a boost from optimistic remarks by President Donald Trump regarding the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

In a Truth Social post earlier today, Trump said the United States had made “great progress” in discussions with a “new, and more reasonable, regime” aimed at ending military operations in Iran.

At the same time, Trump warned that if an agreement is not reached soon, the United States will “conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!)”.

Even so, gains could remain limited as crude oil prices continue to move higher amid ongoing concerns about the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict.

Stocks posted sharp losses during Friday’s session, extending declines from the previous trading day. The major indices fell early in the session and continued sliding deeper into negative territory as trading progressed.

Although the market recovered somewhat from the day’s lows toward the close, the main averages still ended the session with sizeable losses. The Nasdaq fell 459.72 points, or 2.2%, to 20,948.36, the Dow dropped 793.47 points, or 1.7%, to 45,166.64, and the S&P 500 declined 108.31 points, or 1.7%, finishing at 6,368.85.

For the week overall, the Nasdaq lost 3.2%, the S&P 500 declined 2.1%, and the Dow slipped 0.9%. These declines pushed the major averages to their lowest closing levels in more than eight months.

The continued rally in oil prices weighed on investor sentiment. Brent crude futures climbed back above $110 per barrel after rising by more than 5% during Thursday’s trading session.

The extended rise in oil prices came despite President Trump extending by 10 days the pause on potential attacks against Iran’s energy infrastructure, moving the deadline to April 6.

Trump said in another Truth Social post that negotiations with Iran were “going very well,” although Iranian state media reported that Tehran had “responded negatively” to a U.S. peace proposal.

“Comments from Washington and Tehran about a potential peace process seem to come from parallel worlds, with the former indicating talks are going well while the latter effectively denies talks are even happening,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“For now, fighting continues and the path out of the current crisis remains unclear,” he added. “Oil prices, probably the best indicator, remain elevated and have reached $110 per barrel again.”

Mould also warned that if crude prices remain elevated for an extended period, fears of renewed inflationary pressure could intensify.

Airline stocks were among the worst performers on Friday, sending the NYSE Arca Airline Index down 4.7%.

Biotechnology, software, and computer hardware companies also experienced notable declines, contributing to the heavy losses in the technology-focused Nasdaq.

Financial, retail, and healthcare stocks also moved significantly lower, while gold-related shares resisted the broader downturn as the price of the precious metal surged.

Futures tied to the major U.S. stock indices moved higher, as investors tried to assess the outlook for the expanding conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices remained above $100 a barrel amid reports of U.S. troop movements in the region and speculation that President Donald Trump is weighing a possible operation to remove uranium from Iran. At the same time, Trump signaled progress in discussions with Tehran and hinted that an agreement to end the fighting might be within reach.

Futures move higher

U.S. stock futures edged upward on Monday as the conflict with Iran entered its second month, leaving markets uncertain about how the situation could evolve.

By 03:30 ET, Dow futures had gained 93 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures rose 18 points, or 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 62 points, also up 0.3%.

Wall Street’s main indices had fallen in the previous session despite President Trump extending the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz until April 6. The U.S. had warned that failure to comply could result in strikes against energy infrastructure.

“[M]arkets remain very much on edge about the Middle East, and the consensus view is still that the conflict is set to escalate,” analysts at Vital Knowledge wrote in a note to clients.

Brent oil climbs

With tensions continuing to build in the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is considering a complicated and potentially risky military plan aimed at extracting nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran.

Meanwhile, troops from the U.S. 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit have reportedly been deployed to the region, a step seen as giving the president more strategic options as he evaluates the next stage of the war. According to the Washington Post, the Pentagon is preparing for the possibility of several weeks of ground operations inside Iran.

Tehran has warned that it will destroy any American forces attempting to carry out a ground incursion.

Over the weekend, at least 12 U.S. service members were injured in Iranian strikes on an air base in Saudi Arabia. Iran-aligned Houthi fighters in Yemen also entered the conflict for the first time, launching attacks on Israel and raising concerns about potential disruptions to major global energy routes.

Analysts at Vital Knowledge warned that if the Houthis target the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the global shipping disruption already triggered by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz off Iran’s southern coast could be “dramatically amplif[ied].” The Bab al-Mandab Strait is a key maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.

By 03:45 ET, Brent crude futures had risen 3.3% to $108.77 per barrel.

Trump says Iran negotiations going “well”

Trump indicated that talks with Iran could be underway and suggested that a diplomatic agreement might be close.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, the president said negotiations were going “extremely well” and maintained that an agreement with Tehran remained possible. He also referred to “regime change” in Iran following U.S. strikes that killed several senior Iranian officials in recent weeks.

“I think we’ll make a deal with them, but it’s possible we won’t,” Trump said. Responding to a reporter’s question, he added: “I do see a deal with Iran, could be soon,” though he did not provide a timeline.

Iranian officials have largely denied that direct negotiations with Washington have taken place since the war began, insisting that hostilities must end before any talks can occur.

As has often been the case throughout the conflict, Trump’s remarks were accompanied by mixed signals. Alongside reports of a possible U.S. uranium extraction plan, the president told the Financial Times that he wants to take control of Iran’s oil and could even seize Kharg Island, one of the country’s main export hubs.

“Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” Trump told the FT.

Gold edges higher

Gold prices ticked higher on Monday following a volatile week. Spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,527.01 an ounce by 03:55 ET, while gold futures increased 0.7% to $4,555.05 an ounce. Spot gold had dropped to around $4,000 an ounce last week before rebounding to near $4,500 by Friday.

Analysts at OCBC said the rebound from last week’s lows appeared largely technical. Gold had previously fallen as much as 20% from levels seen before the outbreak of the Iran conflict in late February.

They noted that bearish momentum appeared to be easing, with the metal’s relative strength index moving out of oversold territory.

However, they cautioned that it remains uncertain whether the recovery can continue, highlighting resistance levels for spot gold at $4,624, $4,670 and $4,850 per ounce.

U.S. data in focus this week

Investors are also preparing for several economic reports this week that could shed light on how the conflict with Iran is affecting the broader U.S. economy.

A fresh reading on U.S. manufacturing activity for March from the Institute for Supply Management is due on Wednesday. Economists expect the index to decline slightly while remaining in expansion territory.

Attention will then shift to Friday’s U.S. employment report. Economists forecast that the economy added about 56,000 jobs in March, rebounding from a loss of 92,000 in February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.4%.

The nonfarm payrolls report will likely attract particularly close attention, as it may influence how Federal Reserve officials approach monetary policy in the coming months.

“In terms of the U.S. data this week, the focus will be on the labor market,” analysts at ING said in a note. “Friday’s NFP release, […] should leave the market minded to price [Fed] tightening this year in response to the energy shock. Any surprise weakness could hit the dollar.”

U.S. stock futures indicate a lower start for markets on Friday, pointing to potential additional losses after equities dropped sharply in the previous trading session.

A renewed jump in crude oil prices is expected to weigh on investor sentiment. Global benchmark Brent crude has climbed back above $110 per barrel after gaining more than 5% during Thursday’s trading.

The extended rally in oil prices comes even after President Donald Trump announced a 10-day extension to the pause on potential attacks targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure, pushing the deadline to April 6.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said negotiations with Iran are “going very well,” though Iranian state media reported that Tehran had “responded negatively” to a peace proposal from the United States.

“Comments from Washington and Tehran about a potential peace process seem to come from parallel worlds, with the former indicating talks are going well while the latter effectively denies talks are even happening,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“For now, fighting continues and the path out of the current crisis remains unclear,” he added. “Oil prices, probably the best indicator, remain elevated and have reached $110 per barrel again.”

Mould also cautioned that if crude prices remain elevated for an extended period, concerns about a meaningful return of inflationary pressures could intensify.

Markets tumble in prior session

Stocks had already been under pressure earlier on Thursday and continued to decline as the session progressed, ultimately closing sharply lower. The sell-off pushed both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to their lowest closing levels since early September of last year.

The main indexes finished slightly above their intraday lows. The Nasdaq dropped 521.74 points, or 2.4%, to 21,408.08, the S&P 500 lost 114.74 points, or 1.7%, to close at 6,477.16, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 469.38 points, or 1%, ending at 45,960.11.

Thursday’s decline continued the recent back-and-forth trading pattern, as markets reacted to sharp swings in crude oil prices.

Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, surged more than 5% after falling by over 2% during Wednesday’s session.

The rebound in oil prices reflects ongoing uncertainty around efforts to secure peace in the Middle East. Iran rejected a U.S. proposal aimed at pausing the conflict, stating that any ceasefire would occur only according to Tehran’s own terms and schedule.

In a Truth Social post, President Donald Trump described Iranian negotiators as “very different” and “strange,” while also claiming they are “begging” the U.S. to strike a deal.

“They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty!” Trump warned.

Escalation concerns add to market anxiety

Investor worries were also heightened after several Gulf nations issued a joint statement condemning Iran’s “criminal” attacks on their energy infrastructure.

The statement, released by the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan, specifically cited attacks carried out by Iran-aligned armed factions operating from Iraqi territory.

“While we value our fraternal relations with the Republic of Iraq, we call on the Iraqi government to take the necessary measures to immediately halt the attacks launched by factions, militias, and armed groups from Iraqi territory toward neighboring countries,” the statement said.

The Gulf states also reaffirmed their right to defend themselves and their right to “take all necessary measures to safeguard our sovereignty, security, and stability.”

Tech and cyclical sectors lead losses

Technology-related shares were among the biggest losers of the session, with computer hardware, semiconductor and networking companies posting notable declines that weighed heavily on the tech-focused Nasdaq.

Outside the technology sector, gold mining companies also dropped sharply as bullion prices fell, pulling the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index down by 3.7%.

Steelmakers, homebuilders and airline stocks also recorded significant losses, while oil producers moved higher alongside the surge in crude prices.

U.S. equity futures were trading near unchanged levels on Friday after President Donald Trump said the United States would delay a deadline for potential strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Washington is demanding that Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump said discussions with Iran are continuing even as violence in the Middle East persists. Oil prices extended their gains, while gold appeared headed for a weekly decline.

Futures show little movement

Futures tied to the main U.S. indexes edged modestly higher early Friday after Trump said Iran now has until April 6 to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or risk attacks on its power facilities.

At 04:23 ET, Dow futures were up 27 points, or 0.1%. Futures linked to the S&P 500 gained 8 points, also around 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 16 points, roughly 0.1%.

Wall Street’s major benchmarks had fallen sharply in the previous session, recording one of their worst performances of the year so far. The decline came amid limited signs that diplomatic efforts to resolve the nearly month-long conflict involving U.S. and Israeli forces against Iran were making meaningful progress.

Hostilities across the Middle East have continued, leaving the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to tanker shipments and sustaining fears of additional attacks on crucial energy infrastructure in the region. Israel and Iran exchanged strikes again on Friday, while the Pentagon has reportedly been increasing its military presence in the area ahead of what some investors fear could become a U.S. ground operation in Iran.

A report from the OECD released Thursday warned that the war could weaken the global economic outlook, noting that a surge in energy prices might trigger stronger inflationary pressures and weigh on economic expansion.

Outside the geopolitical tensions, analysts at Vital Knowledge pointed to developments in the artificial intelligence industry, highlighting OpenAI’s decision to step away from some consumer-focused products. They suggested this may indicate that start-ups in the rapidly expanding AI sector are shifting their focus toward profitability and cash generation rather than simply building user bases.

“[T]his could cause the tsunami of AI infrastructure spending to slow at the margin,” the analysts wrote in a note.

Trump delays deadline for Iranian energy targets

Despite other developments, markets remain primarily focused on the situation involving Iran, particularly Trump’s decision to extend the White House deadline for potential strikes on Iranian power facilities until April 6.

In a message posted on Truth Social, Trump said the delay came at the request of the Iranian government and claimed that Tehran was engaged in “ongoing” discussions with Washington that are “going very well.” He dismissed reports suggesting otherwise as “erroneous.”

Last weekend, Trump issued an ultimatum warning that U.S. forces would strike Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz — a crucial route carrying roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil — was not reopened. He later indicated that any action would be postponed until Friday following what he described as “very strong” talks with Iranian officials.

Iranian authorities, however, have publicly denied that negotiations with the United States are taking place.

Some observers argue that both sides may be presenting incomplete accounts of events, leaving investors uncertain about the future direction of the conflict.

Oil prices continue rising

What remains clear is that tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz are still heavily restricted and the threat of further attacks on energy facilities in the Persian Gulf remains.

The disruption has created a major shock to global oil supply, limiting exports from one of the world’s most important energy-producing regions and affecting industries that rely on those imports.

Brent crude — the global oil benchmark — has become a central indicator of the war’s economic impact. Prices have climbed far above levels seen before the conflict began and continued to move higher on Friday.

The sustained rally has heightened concerns that higher energy costs could drive global inflation upward, potentially forcing central banks to reconsider raising interest rates even as economic growth slows.

Gold set for weekly loss

Gold prices rose on Friday but gave back part of their earlier gains following Trump’s announcement.

By 05:03 ET, spot gold had increased 1.2% to $4,427.31 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures were up 1.1% at $4,456.01 per ounce.

Even with Friday’s advance, bullion remained on course to decline around 1.4% over the week after slipping in the previous session.

Persistently high energy costs could keep inflation elevated and strengthen expectations that central banks will keep borrowing costs higher for longer. Gold often struggles in such high-rate environments.

Carnival results due

On the corporate side, Carnival Corp. (NYSE:CCL) is scheduled to report earnings on Friday, potentially offering insight into how the conflict in the Middle East is affecting businesses.

Analysts say the sharp increase in oil prices caused by the war is likely to raise fuel expenses for cruise operators such as Carnival.

Cruise companies typically hedge against oil price volatility by using financial contracts that lock in fuel costs. However, analysts note that Carnival is the only major U.S. cruise line that does not currently hedge its fuel exposure, potentially leaving its earnings more vulnerable to the recent surge in energy prices.

Shares of Carnival have fallen by more than 18% so far this year.