Category: Market Summary

European equity markets moved lower on Thursday as uncertainty continued to surround potential peace negotiations in the Middle East. Iran rejected a U.S. proposal to temporarily halt the conflict, stating that any pause would only happen according to Tehran’s own conditions and timeline.

Markets were also responding to hawkish remarks from European Central Bank policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel.

Nagel said the European Central Bank could raise interest rates at its next policy meeting in April “if the war in the Middle East raises the spectre of an inflation surge in the Eurozone.”

ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday that an inflation spike lasting beyond a brief period could justify an increase in borrowing costs.

On the economic front, new survey data indicated that German consumer sentiment is expected to weaken in April as economic concerns linked to the war in Iran weigh on households.

The forward-looking consumer sentiment index dropped to -28.0 in April from -24.8 the previous month, according to results released jointly by NIQ/GfK and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions. Economists had forecast a smaller decline to -27.3.

While March data showed little change in consumers’ willingness to spend or save, expectations for household income fell significantly due to rising inflation concerns.

In the markets, Germany’s DAX index was down 1.4%, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 slipped 1.2%, and France’s CAC 40 declined 0.9%.

Bank stocks were among the decliners, with Commerzbank (TG:CBK), Deutsche Bank (TG:DBK), BNP Paribas (EU:BNP) and Barclays (LSE:BARC) each falling between 1% and 2%.

Shares of Henkel (TG:HEN) edged slightly higher after hair care brand Olaplex Holdings said it had entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by the German consumer goods group.

Food delivery company Delivery Hero (TG:DHER) dropped 1.1% after issuing a cautious outlook.

French infrastructure group Vinci (EU:DG) also traded lower after agreeing to acquire a toll highway portfolio in India from Macquarie Asia Infrastructure Fund 2.

Swedish fashion retailer H & M Hennes & Mauritz (BIT:1HMB) fell 5.6% after first-quarter sales came in below expectations.

Energy majors BP Plc (LSE:BP.) and Shell (LSE:SHEL) moved higher as oil prices rose about 2%, recovering some of the previous session’s losses amid concerns that an extended conflict in the Middle East could further disrupt global supply.

Meanwhile, U.K. retailer Next Plc (LSE:NXT) surged about 6% after raising its profit outlook for 2026.

U.S. equity futures were lower early Thursday as investors navigated a steady stream of reports about potential negotiations aimed at ending the war in Iran. Oil prices remained above $100 a barrel, the U.S. dollar strengthened slightly and gold slipped. Meanwhile, Jefferies Financial (NYSE:JEF) reported first-quarter results weighed down by losses tied to loans extended to companies that later collapsed.

Futures move lower

Futures tied to the major U.S. stock indexes declined in early trading as markets weighed the likelihood of diplomatic progress in the Iran conflict.

As of 04:18 ET, Dow futures had dropped 203 points, or 0.4%. S&P 500 futures were down 35 points, or 0.5%, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 156 points, or 0.6%.

Wall Street’s main benchmarks finished the previous session higher on hopes that the United States and Iran could begin discussions to end the conflict, which has been ongoing for nearly a month. Media reports indicated that Tehran had privately signaled openness to talks with Washington. U.S. Vice President JD Vance is also reportedly prepared to travel to Pakistan as early as this weekend to participate in negotiations.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. and Israel may postpone any attempts to assassinate Iran’s foreign minister or parliament speaker while diplomatic contacts continue.

Despite these developments, the outlook remains uncertain. The two sides appear far apart on the conditions required to end the fighting, and the Pentagon has begun deploying additional ground forces to the Middle East.

At the same time, Israeli officials — whose country has been conducting military operations against Iran alongside the U.S. — are reportedly worried that Washington could announce a one-month ceasefire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has therefore ordered a new two-day campaign aimed at destroying as much of Iran’s military capacity as possible, according to reports by the New York Times and CNN.

Oil remains above $100 a barrel

With investors trying to make sense of fast-moving developments in the Middle East, oil prices again traded above the $100-per-barrel level on Thursday.

Brent crude futures for May delivery, the global benchmark, were last up 3.4% at $105.73 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also climbed 3.7% to $93.67 per barrel.

Iran is reportedly evaluating a 15-point peace proposal put forward by the United States. At the same time, the White House has warned that further air strikes could be launched if Tehran refuses to reach an agreement. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said U.S. President Donald Trump “does not bluff and […] is prepared to unleash hell,” although the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump has privately told aides he would prefer to see the conflict end quickly.

Analysts at Vital Knowledge noted that the Trump administration has scheduled the president’s upcoming trip to China for May 14–15, which could suggest Washington expects the conflict to conclude before then.

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The key maritime route — through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows — has been largely inaccessible for weeks due to the threat of Iranian attacks. Oil prices have eased somewhat from the near-$120 per barrel peak seen earlier this month, but they remain well above levels recorded before the conflict erupted in late February.

Dollar strengthens

Oil remaining above $100 per barrel has helped support the U.S. dollar even as some improvement in market risk appetite has emerged, analysts at ING said.

The greenback has been one of investors’ preferred safe-haven assets since the conflict began, rising about 2% over the past month.

A dollar index tracking the currency against a basket of peers — which has been volatile this week amid the flow of headlines about the Iran war — was last up 0.1% at 99.70.

“Markets may well require some more convincing headlines on de-escalation to take the dollar meaningfully lower from here,” ING analysts including Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner said in a note.

Gold slips

The relative strength of the U.S. dollar has limited any rebound in gold prices, which have fallen since the conflict began after reaching a record high earlier this year.

Some analysts have suggested that gold’s strong rally in recent months reduced its appeal relative to other safe-haven assets as investors sought alternatives during a conflict that has spread across the Middle East.

At the same time, expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer in response to an energy-driven inflation shock have weighed on non-yielding assets such as gold.

Spot gold was down 1.7% at $4,432.27 an ounce at 05:02 ET, while gold futures fell 2.7% to $4,461.59 an ounce.

“In the near term, gold is trading inside a defined range. The market needs to clear the mid-$4,500s and hold it to shift the tone. Until that happens, rallies can still run into resistance and turn into selling opportunities,” American Hartford Gold President Max Baecker told Investing.com.

Jefferies earnings disappoint

Elsewhere, Jefferies Financial (NYSE:JEF) reported quarterly results that fell short of expectations, as losses tied to loans extended to companies that later collapsed offset solid investment banking performance during the first quarter.

The firm said it recorded $17 million in losses — after adjusting for compensation and taxes — linked to the collapse of British lender Market Financial Solutions and First Brands, a U.S. auto-parts supplier that filed for bankruptcy.

However, Jefferies President Brian Friedman told Reuters that the environment for mergers, acquisitions and initial public offerings should remain “increasingly strong” provided the Iran conflict reaches a “reasonable end.”

According to Dealogic data cited by Reuters, more than $1 trillion worth of deals have already been announced in 2026, representing a 27% increase compared with the same period in 2025. Potential high-profile technology IPOs expected later this year could add further momentum to dealmaking activity.

U.S. stock futures moved up early Wednesday, while oil prices slipped back below $100 per barrel. Gold posted gains and the U.S. dollar weakened slightly as investors reacted to renewed optimism that the conflict involving Iran could move toward a resolution. Washington is reported to have outlined a 15-point proposal aimed at ending hostilities, although Tehran is said to be imposing demanding conditions for negotiations.

Futures move up

Futures tied to U.S. equities advanced Wednesday, supported by growing expectations that Washington and Tehran could be edging closer to diplomatic talks to end a conflict that has lasted nearly a month and raised fears of broader instability across the Middle East.

By 04:14 ET, futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 495 points, or 1.1%. Futures linked to the S&P 500 climbed 68 points, or 1.0%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 284 points, or 1.2%.

In the previous session, the main Wall Street benchmarks closed lower as investors weighed the prospects for a ceasefire between joint U.S.-Israeli forces and Iran. Military activity has continued, while Washington has reportedly deployed additional forces to the region. Some U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf have also urged President Donald Trump to continue the military campaign.

Tehran has dismissed Trump’s claim that recent discussions between the two sides were “very strong,” accusing the U.S. president of invoking the possibility of talks to calm volatile financial markets.

Market participants are also considering the potential economic effects of a prolonged conflict. Preliminary data on U.S. business activity for March added to those concerns, as S&P Global’s flash purchasing managers’ index dropped to its lowest level in eleven months, indicating that rising energy costs linked to the war are beginning to weigh on economic growth.

The effects may extend beyond the United States. PMI readings for the eurozone also warned of “ringing stagflation alarm bells,” referring to a combination of persistent inflation and sluggish economic growth.

Oil falls below $100 amid diplomatic hopes

Despite ongoing tensions, early trading on Wednesday reflected renewed optimism that the conflict could shift toward negotiations.

Reports suggested that mediators from Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan are working to arrange talks between officials from the United States and Iran as soon as Thursday.

With Trump reportedly seeking a diplomatic way out of the conflict, Washington is said to have presented Tehran with a 15-point peace proposal. Among the reported demands are the dismantling of Iran’s key nuclear facilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route south of Iran that has effectively been closed to tanker traffic for several weeks. The disruption has driven energy prices higher and raised concerns about inflation worldwide.

Iran is believed to have set strict conditions for entering negotiations, including the introduction of fees for ships traveling through the strait. An Iranian military spokesperson also expressed skepticism about the possibility of a swift resolution, stating that the U.S. is only “negotiating with” itself.

Despite the mixed signals surrounding the conflict, oil prices declined. By 04:31 ET, Brent crude futures for May delivery had fallen 6.5% to $97.68 per barrel. Although the benchmark has dropped below the key $100 level, it remains well above roughly $70 per barrel seen before the war began in late February.

Gold rises modestly

Gold prices increased during European trading hours, supported by softer oil prices and a slightly weaker U.S. dollar. However, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East limited further gains.

Spot gold rose 2.0% to $4,564.34 an ounce by 05:03 ET, while U.S. gold futures climbed 3.7% to $4,597.42.

Lower energy costs can ease bond yields and weaken the dollar, both of which typically support non-yielding assets such as gold.

Speaking to reporters Tuesday, Trump said Washington was “in negotiations right now” with Iran, adding that Tehran was “talking sense” and appeared eager to reach an agreement that would end the hostilities.

However, the fighting has continued, with new attacks targeting facilities in U.S.-allied countries in the Persian Gulf. Trump’s willingness to negotiate has reportedly unsettled some Gulf states, prompting Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to urge Washington to continue military operations until Iran’s regional influence is reduced.

Currency markets pause

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index — which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies — slipped 0.2% to 99.21.

Recent volatility in global currency markets also eased somewhat as Trump’s comments about potential talks with Iran helped lift equity markets in Europe and Asia and contributed to the decline in oil prices.

Still, analysts at ING warned that markets are likely to remain extremely sensitive to developments related to Iran.

“It seems dangerous to position for an early resolution of the crisis, with the Iranians likely to want to take high energy prices as leverage in any negotiations,” the analysts wrote, adding that upcoming speeches from European central bankers are “very likely to sound hawkish.”

A strategist cited by Reuters also suggested that investors may be experiencing a degree of “fatigue” as they attempt to track the rapid developments surrounding the conflict.

Chewy earnings ahead

Chewy Inc is scheduled to release its latest quarterly results, with investors watching closely for signs that the online pet retailer can stabilize sentiment after a prolonged decline in its share price.

The stock has fallen more than 29% over the past year.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley expect the company to report fourth-quarter revenue of about $3.27 billion, broadly in line with consensus estimates, alongside EBITDA of roughly $171 million, slightly above market expectations.

They view the results as a potential “set-up” for fiscal 2026, forecasting initial guidance for revenue growth of around 7% to 7.5% and EBITDA margin expansion of 90 to 100 basis points.

Analysts at Wolfe Research similarly anticipate a modest earnings beat, projecting revenue growth of about 0.8% year-on-year to $3.27 billion and EBITDA margins of 4.9%, representing an improvement of 109 basis points.

U.S. stock futures are signaling a weaker start on Tuesday, indicating that equities may retreat after the strong gains recorded in the prior trading session.

The cautious tone comes as crude oil prices recover, with global benchmark Brent futures climbing back above the $100 per barrel mark.

Brent prices had fallen nearly 11% during Monday’s session after President Donald Trump said the United States and Iran had engaged in productive discussions aimed at resolving the conflict in the Middle East.

However, oil prices are now moving higher again as Israel and Iran continue to exchange strikes. Large explosions have been reported in Tehran and other cities, while Iranian officials denied that negotiations with the United States had taken place.

“Iranian people demand complete and remorseful punishment of the aggressors,” Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote in response to Trump’s comments.

He also said Trump’s recent statements “is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the U.S. and Israel are trapped.”

Iran’s foreign ministry also rejected Trump’s remarks, saying they were “part of efforts to reduce energy prices and buy time” for possible military action.

With the conflict now in its 25th day and no immediate signs of easing, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are moving closer to joining the fight against Iran, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal.

On Monday, U.S. equities surged early in the session before giving up part of their gains later in the day, although the major indices still finished firmly higher. The rebound followed Friday’s session, when markets had dropped to their lowest levels in several months.

Even though the major averages closed well below their intraday highs, they still posted solid gains. The Dow climbed 631.00 points, or 1.4%, to 46,208.47. The Nasdaq advanced 299.15 points, or 1.4%, to 21,946.76, while the S&P 500 added 74.52 points, or 1.2%, to end at 6,581.00.

The early rally on Wall Street came after Trump softened his earlier threat to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not fully reopened.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the United States and Iran had held “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.”

Trump said he subsequently ordered the War Department to delay any strikes on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.

Later, speaking with CNBC’s Joe Kernen, the president said the United States is “very intent on making a deal with Iran,” after previously saying he was not interested in negotiations.

Trump had earlier threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened within 48 hours.

Iran responded by warning that it would target energy and water infrastructure across the Gulf region if the United States followed through with its threat.

Buying interest faded somewhat as the day progressed after Iranian state media reported that the country’s foreign ministry denied holding negotiations with the United States.

Trump later told reporters that the United States was speaking with a “top person” in Iran whom he described as the “most respected,” though he acknowledged that the individual was not the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Airline stocks were among the strongest performers, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index jumping 4.2% after closing at a four-month low last Friday.

Gold mining stocks also advanced, with the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index rising 3.4%, even as gold prices dropped sharply.

Networking stocks also moved higher, lifting the NYSE Arca Networking Index by 3%.

Steel, housing, oil service and computer hardware stocks also posted notable gains amid broad buying across Wall Street.